Puck said:16GB is not enough to hold a next generation game. Anyways.
What's old is new againWheeliedude said:Imagine the flash drive as a bucket. You fill the bucket up at the well (kiosk) with water (content), and then you dump the water into another container (a HDD).
Consumers could purchase larger buckets to carry more water.
With digital distribution, it would be like having a faucet in your home (ala Gametap).
Metal Gear?! said:
Licenses could be purchased anywhere, and the console should be completely uncaring as to how the content is delivered, but the first play should require that the license is verified. You could log into your 'myconsole' account from your computer and purchase the licenses there. You could purchase point cards from retailers and purchase through your console. You could buy a card from a retailer that includes a one-time serial number that provides license. The platform holder could offer to sell the license in a multitude of different ways.Wheeliedude said:Another question.
Will both the unit and the kiosk be able to perform the licensing?
Imagine a situation where a guy is over his friend's house, and really likes a game. He could download the game onto his stick and purchase the license from his friend's unit.
sh4mike said:Yes, that non-internet folks will have to pay for. There is a price gap between DD and the flash.
Games run off the HDD.
Consumers who chose the flash will pay $10 extra to cover the cost. As far as benefits, that's in my original topic:
1) lower production cost
2) lower warranty expense
3) lower game distribution cost
4) no resale/rental market
5) less (potential) piracy
6) easier backwards compatability (revenue opportunity)
I was going to say the same thing in response, until you realize he's referring to next-generation games...arstal said:Most 360 game installs are the full game, and under 8 Gigs. Some exceptions, but that's mostly massive RPGs.
I think discs are staying, but most games will have mandatory full game installs next genwith 120GB+ drives standard, and direct download options for games. (very few disk-only games, and I can even see the death of region-locking possible, outside of Nintendo)
arstal said:Most 360 game installs are the full game, and under 8 Gigs. Some exceptions, but that's mostly massive RPGs.
I think discs are staying, but most games will have mandatory full game installs next genwith 120GB+ drives standard, and direct download options for games. (very few disk-only games, and I can even see the death of region-locking possible, outside of Nintendo)
-viper- said:I don't know about you guys, but I prefer having a physical copy of my goods. I like having my DVD/BD movies and games in cases.
While DD would be nice as an option, but as a permanent solution, hopefully it will never happen. It probably won't either.
Physical media is always cheaper from what I can tell. Platforms such as Steam overprice their games compared to other major retailers. I would never use Steam to buy any game. I don't happen to have ANY control over the game either.
And using USB drives as a source of media? What are you smoking? Quite possibly the most ridiculous idea ever.
And to take the power away from Gamestop. This is why it's destined to happen. The big catch is that they need to make it more desirable for the majority of consumers.AndyD said:I agree to this.
Left 4 Dead PC at Frys over Xmas - 9.99
Same game over Steam - 40-50.
DD is simply a way for them to control the prices and destroy the used media market. It would be the worst thing ever if it became the only source.
We already see this with Wiiware, PSN and XBLA games. 2 years old and most things are still at 5-10 bucks or whatever price point they were day 1. On the retail shelf these would have dropped to less than 50% within months.
:lol So a game that comes out day one for $5 should be less than half that, six months down the road?AndyD said:I agree to this.
Left 4 Dead PC at Frys over Xmas - 9.99
Same game over Steam - 40-50.
DD is simply a way for them to control the prices and destroy the used media market. It would be the worst thing ever if it became the only source.
We already see this with Wiiware, PSN and XBLA games. 2 years old and most things are still at 5-10 bucks or whatever price point they were day 1. On the retail shelf these would have dropped to less than 50% within months.
And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.M3d10n said:In order for this to work, the bare minimum offline-only setup would be:
1) The console must generate a certificate file (each unit generates unique files).
2) User must take this file with him/her to the store/kiosk.
3) The game dispenser machine uses the certificate to sign the game before copying it to the media.
4) Signed game file will only work on the console which generated the certificate.
This system creates two problems:
- It's impossible to buy gifts for someone else without having their certificate file.
- Next-gen will probably move entirely to Blu-ray (probably even Nintendo: they tasted the sour limits of DVD9 themselves), so games will be too big for 16BG drives, and some even for 32GB drives (signed games could be burned to BD-R, though).
Welcome to Australia.TheExodu5 said:A flash drive is still like 200x the price of a DVD. Be expected for games to sell for $70-80 in that case.
Yeah, no matter how you slice it'll inevitably end up less convenient than buying a disc, putting it in the drive and playing it. Sony seems to finally have nailed piracy down and I'm sure next-gen will be pretty much piracy-free, so that's one problem out. But it'll take much longer to bypass retail and the problems (for the companies) associated with it while DD doesn't offer significant advantages for customers.bmf said:And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.
This will be a rough transition if they try too hard to be all-inclusive. *Some* sort of internet access for validation will be a must. There will be accounts. Consoles will be tied to one or multiple user accounts. Large local storage will also be a must - it will not be advantageous for Microsoft to charge out the nose for hard drives. We'll see games marketed and sold in a variety of ways.
I think Microsoft will go for it all the way. I think Nintendo and Sony will still be selling DVDs and Blu-rays next gen, but either or both will experiment with doing full games as downloads.
I see plenty of reason, and I think it's going to happen with Microsoft, but it may or may not be with the successor to the 360. I think we'll see downloadable versions of disc games being released later for the 360, and then eventually on the same day.Tobor said:I've yet to see one good reason in this entire thread for any company to try this.
bmf said:I see plenty of reason, and I think it's going to happen with Microsoft, but it may or may not be with the successor to the 360. I think we'll see downloadable versions of disc games being released later for the 360, and then eventually on the same day.
Sounds like the Zeebo to me!bmf said:Now here's a problem. One of the biggest problems is that those without internet access would be excluded. License validation is a keystone to this strategy. I wonder if Microsoft could sell limited connectivity (to US customers) in the same way it's bundled with Amazon's Kindle - Sell it as an add-on cellular connection with some sort of low-bandwidth agreement between MS and that carrier. The connectivity couldn't be used for downloading content, but it certainly could be used for license validation and purchase.
So the question becomes: When do they drop the optical drive, and how can they leverage the availability of cheap flash to get around the lack of cheap unmetered broadband in some areas?Tobor said:I'm talking about flash sticks replacing discs. I agree 100% on the "DD same day as the disc" scenario.
That's actually genius, if it works. It would be amazing if next gen handhelds move towards that (built-in 3G modem) since I don't thing their games will be much bigger than nowadays (I doubt even Sony will offer DVD-sized games in their next portable).skybaby said:Sounds like the Zeebo to me!
Umm couldn't someone put a game on a flash drive and resell it as is?sh4mike said:4) no resale/rental market
Sony is doing it now. Burnout, Siren, Warhawk, GT5P and more are already offered digitally and on disc. Warhawk and SOCOM day one.bmf said:And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.
This will be a rough transition if they try too hard to be all-inclusive. *Some* sort of internet access for validation will be a must. There will be accounts. Consoles will be tied to one or multiple user accounts. Large local storage will also be a must - it will not be advantageous for Microsoft to charge out the nose for hard drives. We'll see games marketed and sold in a variety of ways.
I think Microsoft will go for it all the way. I think Nintendo and Sony will still be selling DVDs and Blu-rays next gen, but either or both will experiment with doing full games as downloads.
bmf said:So the question becomes: When do they drop the optical drive, and how can they leverage the availability of cheap flash to get around the lack of cheap unmetered broadband in some areas?
As it stands now, having a physical copy of a game equates to having a license to play it. When does the license get abstracted from the medium?
ciaossu said:Seriously? Flash media costs dollars, discs cost pennies. That's really the end of the story.
Try a little different. You go to the store (or your buddy's house), give them $2 and they load the game onto a flash device for you. You also buy a $60 points card. You take that home with the flash device loaded with the game. You plug the flash device into your console, it copies the game over. You go into the menu, and redeem the points card. Then you go to the "games you have but without licenses" menu and choose the game you just installed and buy a license for it. Total internet data transaction is just a few kilobytes. The idea is that anybody can transfer the encrypted (or possibly just signed) game image around wherever they want, but it's the encrypted transaction between your console and the platform owner that matters.Full Recovery said:Say I have shit internet,
How about this: I own a flash drive, I go to the store pay my $60 and my flash drive is loaded with the game data. I go home and install it on my console, DRM included.
Now I just have to keep my receipts.
This is something I was thinking as well. Certainly the advantages for a home console aren't as obvious as for a portable, buuut if you're an iconoclastic corporation who doesn't give a shit about movies but does go for cheap hardware, it becomes a bit more believable. Doing away with (disc-based) Wii backwards compatibility would be a big minus, though.jamesinclair said:Sony wont (mus push blu ray!) MS wont, but I can see Nintendo doing this.
If you can get a 8GB card on amazon for 9.99, production cost is under 5, probably under $3.
Vs a Blue Ray at $1.50
Not a major change.
Another interesting question would be the one about directly connected memory busses vs streaming. Every cartridge based system until the DS directly connected the cartridge to the system's memory bus and data therein can be access directly by the CPU and the GPU. With the DS and optical media you have to stream. Every type of flash media I've ever seen requires streaming.JoshuaJSlone said:Stuff
Not if there is just one flash media per console for all games. That is, the media is used to transfer the games from the retail store or a friends house and then verified. No need for every game to come on its own media.ciaossu said:Seriously? Flash media costs dollars, discs cost pennies. That's really the end of the story.
You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.Accident said:And that's without taking into account the cost of the hard drives needed to something like this to work, that's an extra $100 for a 500GB HDD.
Luigison said:Not if there is just one flash media per console for all games. That is, the media is used to transfer the games from the retail store or a friends house and then verified. No need for every game to come on its own media.
You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.
Decent flash is about equivalent to a hard disk, but with better seek times. The idea won't be to use flash for mass storage on the console, but to use it as a transfer device. On the other hand flash should be present as a system area for the console for the OS and such.alr1ghtstart said:Aren't flash drives ridiculously slow compared to discs/hdds?
myDingling said:I think the key thing to take away from OP is that next-gen should have as many options available made to the consumer. We should receive a bare-bones standard platform for gaming on such a "console" and then decide for ourselves how we want to input the media. Wireless DD, external HD, flash drive...heck maybe even allow you to plug in an external Blu-Ray drive and go from there. These options would minimize console cost and allow players to decide how they will approach their media. Of course it's a lot more complicated and resembles a PC more than a gaming console, but for the enthusiast and younger generation growing up on external wireless flash knick knacks, it's probably not a big deal.
As far as licensing goes, it should be a server side license that verifies everytime you play (or maybe weekly or something). Of course this would necesitate an internet connection but c'mon...you should have one if you're playing games in this day and age.
These things are possible and likely but not for another 10 years I would imagine...
It will be a long time before SSD price drop below the cost of a regular HDD. And the 360 arcade pack exists for a reason - MS realized that having a HDD as standard meant that they could only ever drop the price of the xbox so low. HDD's have been around for a long time - do you really think that technology is going to change that much in the next 5 or 6 years?Luigison said:You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.
AndyD said:I think we are starting to discuss two different things.
One is whether console will have large flash built in as opposed to hard drives like today.
The other is whether flash will be used as a distribution method.
I dont think the whole "take your own hard drive/flash drive" to the store thing will happen. For one, every store will need huge servers to keep everything is stock all the time. They have to have it ready, because no one will go to stores and wait 4 hours to download 10gb or more.
AndyD said:Second, metered bandwidth prevents full digital distribution methods from taking place. We are talking 2011, 2012 for a new console age, that's 2-3 years, and if anything bandwidth limits will get smaller not bigger. In the US, ATT and Comcast are just now widely testing metering, which means it may not kick in til 2010, and surely it wont be gotten rid of by 2012. And they cover between them a huge swath of the Internet households in the US.
AndyD said:You are all overlooking a third and crucial point. Retail needs to have easy, reliable, cheap ways to distribute games. A non gamer (a parent, grandparent) needs to be able to walk into a store and browse and pick stuff out. And they wont pay for expensive flash storage and they wont bring their flash from home. They will want to put it in their basket, check out and have something physical to wrap up for their kids, not some online authorization code.
AndyD said:Bluray will likely become the default storage medium next generation, unless Nintendo decides to stick to DVD. Its cheap, reliable, widely known, by then it will be well matured, its huge in storage size, streams very fast and it is still a disc, so in people's minds it is a natural progression.
Back in 2005, it would be expensive to get flash memory that could survive for enough write cycles to be used as a hard drive.2 Minutes Turkish said:Flash has potential for devs maybe.
I fail to see why all 360s couldn't have included at LEAST 4GB of flash memory for devs to cache to.
It's not like 4GB of mem was expensive back then.
sh4mike said:Speculation is fun.
There are many benefits to removing physical media drives from consoles:
1) lower production cost
2) lower warranty expense
3) lower game distribution cost
4) no resale/rental market
5) less (potential) piracy
6) easier backwards compatability (revenue opportunity)
Unfortunately, many consumers do not have access to a limitless broadband service for downloading progressively larger titles. But then I saw an ad for a 16GB USB flash drive for $15. That's likely a production cost of less than $10. And it got me thinking about the potential for a driveless next-gen system:
1) sell game online for $40 (online manual for easy printout as desired)
2) sell game in B&M for $50 (=pre-loaded flash drive in a case with manual)
Pehaps you could even have a bring-your-own-flash to B&M for cheaper downloads, but not sure this would be worth the hassle.
Having the game available in stores would keep the B&M happy so they would stock the system. Flash drives are small so the cases wouldn't take up much more space than current optical disks. The flash drive would lock to the first system it accesses to prevent game sharing (can transfer licenses online a few times a year aka X360 protocol).
What am I missing?