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USB flash drives and next-gen potential

arstal

Whine Whine FADC Troll
Puck said:
16GB is not enough to hold a next generation game. Anyways.

Most 360 game installs are the full game, and under 8 Gigs. Some exceptions, but that's mostly massive RPGs.

I think discs are staying, but most games will have mandatory full game installs next genwith 120GB+ drives standard, and direct download options for games. (very few disk-only games, and I can even see the death of region-locking possible, outside of Nintendo)
 
Wheeliedude said:
Imagine the flash drive as a bucket. You fill the bucket up at the well (kiosk) with water (content), and then you dump the water into another container (a HDD).

Consumers could purchase larger buckets to carry more water.

With digital distribution, it would be like having a faucet in your home (ala Gametap).
What's old is new again

 
Wheeliedude said:
Another question.
Will both the unit and the kiosk be able to perform the licensing?

Imagine a situation where a guy is over his friend's house, and really likes a game. He could download the game onto his stick and purchase the license from his friend's unit.
Licenses could be purchased anywhere, and the console should be completely uncaring as to how the content is delivered, but the first play should require that the license is verified. You could log into your 'myconsole' account from your computer and purchase the licenses there. You could purchase point cards from retailers and purchase through your console. You could buy a card from a retailer that includes a one-time serial number that provides license. The platform holder could offer to sell the license in a multitude of different ways.
 

itsgreen

Member
sh4mike said:
Yes, that non-internet folks will have to pay for. There is a price gap between DD and the flash.


Games run off the HDD.



Consumers who chose the flash will pay $10 extra to cover the cost. As far as benefits, that's in my original topic:

1) lower production cost
2) lower warranty expense
3) lower game distribution cost
4) no resale/rental market
5) less (potential) piracy
6) easier backwards compatability (revenue opportunity)

I never did say those things, only the first one :) if you copy quotes, use the proper name :)

And for the record, I prefer a hard copy... or a DD without DRM. If a provider goes belly-up, or thinks 'well we have supported this title for 10 years now, lets switch downloads off' im fucked with my game. Atleast with a hard copy I know it is good in 10 years...
 

Darkmakaimura

Can You Imagine What SureAI Is Going To Do With Garfield?
arstal said:
Most 360 game installs are the full game, and under 8 Gigs. Some exceptions, but that's mostly massive RPGs.

I think discs are staying, but most games will have mandatory full game installs next genwith 120GB+ drives standard, and direct download options for games. (very few disk-only games, and I can even see the death of region-locking possible, outside of Nintendo)
I was going to say the same thing in response, until you realize he's referring to next-generation games...
 

Slavik81

Member
You can't sell the games on the USB key unless they're permanently tied to it. If you want to have the games tied to an account, rather than the key, you need to first associate the key with the account on the console... That is, you'd first have to plug the USB key into the console before you could use it to download games.

Just think about the information they'd need... The game code they give you would have to have some sort of signature that ensures it doesn't work for anyone else. Without knowing the identity of your offline user account they'd be unable to give it the correct signature.

Though, it might be possible to have a few systems at the same time. That is, allow sales to tie the game to either the key or the console. If it's tied to the key, when the console comes online or if the user returns to the kiosk, wipe the old signature and supply different code that's tied to the account rather than the key.

Still... That seems rather cumbersome. It might confuse the customer to have two different types of licenses.
 

itsgreen

Member
arstal said:
Most 360 game installs are the full game, and under 8 Gigs. Some exceptions, but that's mostly massive RPGs.

I think discs are staying, but most games will have mandatory full game installs next genwith 120GB+ drives standard, and direct download options for games. (very few disk-only games, and I can even see the death of region-locking possible, outside of Nintendo)

Yeah not going to happen. Atleast at MS' end.

They have learned a lesson with Xbox 1: hard drives cost a minimal of 20-30 bucks. Just the basic parts for a hard drive, the cheapest version, OEM.

If MS introduces fixed storage it is SSD(-like). Chips always become cheaper over time. And smaller and again cheaper...
 
Sony wont (mus push blu ray!) MS wont, but I can see Nintendo doing this.

If you can get a 8GB card on amazon for 9.99, production cost is under 5, probably under $3.

Vs a Blue Ray at $1.50

Not a major change.

Someone mentioned using the cellular network for verification. Thats probably what will happen, like Kindle and the Brazilian console announced last year. Not everyone has internet access, but everyone lives in a cell phone area
 
I haven't read every post in the thread so forgive me if I'm reciting someone else idea.

But my idea is; how about every system comes with an external flash drive or two. When a new game comes out those of us who are online can simply download the game for $40 and those of us who aren't online can go down to their local game store and get the game downloaded to their flash drive for $45 or $50.

When you get home the system will wipe the data from the dedicated flash drive (that the company itself manufactured allowing the drive and the system to speak to each other in a special way) and your game will be stored on your HDD forever, leaving your now clean flash drive to be used later when a new release comes out. And if you want to purchase three or four games at a time, empty flash drives (which can only be used for that system type) could be purchased at $10 or whatever.

I can only see Nintendo and maybe MS doing this though. Sony is pretty invested in Blu-Ray.

Well that's my quick idea. Back to work.
 

-viper-

Banned
I don't know about you guys, but I prefer having a physical copy of my goods. I like having my DVD/BD movies and games in cases.

While DD would be nice as an option, but as a permanent solution, hopefully it will never happen. It probably won't either.

Physical media is always cheaper from what I can tell. Platforms such as Steam overprice their games compared to other major retailers. I would never use Steam to buy any game. I don't happen to have ANY control over the game either.

And using USB drives as a source of media? What are you smoking? Quite possibly the most ridiculous idea ever.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
-viper- said:
I don't know about you guys, but I prefer having a physical copy of my goods. I like having my DVD/BD movies and games in cases.

While DD would be nice as an option, but as a permanent solution, hopefully it will never happen. It probably won't either.

Physical media is always cheaper from what I can tell. Platforms such as Steam overprice their games compared to other major retailers. I would never use Steam to buy any game. I don't happen to have ANY control over the game either.

And using USB drives as a source of media? What are you smoking? Quite possibly the most ridiculous idea ever.

I agree to this.

Left 4 Dead PC at Frys over Xmas - 9.99
Same game over Steam - 40-50.

DD is simply a way for them to control the prices and destroy the used media market. It would be the worst thing ever if it became the only source.

We already see this with Wiiware, PSN and XBLA games. 2 years old and most things are still at 5-10 bucks or whatever price point they were day 1. On the retail shelf these would have dropped to less than 50% within months.
 
AndyD said:
I agree to this.

Left 4 Dead PC at Frys over Xmas - 9.99
Same game over Steam - 40-50.

DD is simply a way for them to control the prices and destroy the used media market. It would be the worst thing ever if it became the only source.

We already see this with Wiiware, PSN and XBLA games. 2 years old and most things are still at 5-10 bucks or whatever price point they were day 1. On the retail shelf these would have dropped to less than 50% within months.
And to take the power away from Gamestop. This is why it's destined to happen. The big catch is that they need to make it more desirable for the majority of consumers.
 
AndyD said:
I agree to this.

Left 4 Dead PC at Frys over Xmas - 9.99
Same game over Steam - 40-50.

DD is simply a way for them to control the prices and destroy the used media market. It would be the worst thing ever if it became the only source.

We already see this with Wiiware, PSN and XBLA games. 2 years old and most things are still at 5-10 bucks or whatever price point they were day 1. On the retail shelf these would have dropped to less than 50% within months.
:lol So a game that comes out day one for $5 should be less than half that, six months down the road?
 

M3d10n

Member
In order for this to work, the bare minimum offline-only setup would be:

1) The console must generate a certificate file (each unit generates unique files).
2) User must take this file with him/her to the store/kiosk.
3) The game dispenser machine uses the certificate to sign the game before copying it to the media.
4) Signed game file will only work on the console which generated the certificate.

This system creates two problems:
- It's impossible to buy gifts for someone else without having their certificate file.
- Next-gen will probably move entirely to Blu-ray (probably even Nintendo: they tasted the sour limits of DVD9 themselves), so games will be too big for 16BG drives, and some even for 32GB drives (signed games could be burned to BD-R, though).
 
M3d10n said:
In order for this to work, the bare minimum offline-only setup would be:

1) The console must generate a certificate file (each unit generates unique files).
2) User must take this file with him/her to the store/kiosk.
3) The game dispenser machine uses the certificate to sign the game before copying it to the media.
4) Signed game file will only work on the console which generated the certificate.

This system creates two problems:
- It's impossible to buy gifts for someone else without having their certificate file.
- Next-gen will probably move entirely to Blu-ray (probably even Nintendo: they tasted the sour limits of DVD9 themselves), so games will be too big for 16BG drives, and some even for 32GB drives (signed games could be burned to BD-R, though).
And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.

This will be a rough transition if they try too hard to be all-inclusive. *Some* sort of internet access for validation will be a must. There will be accounts. Consoles will be tied to one or multiple user accounts. Large local storage will also be a must - it will not be advantageous for Microsoft to charge out the nose for hard drives. We'll see games marketed and sold in a variety of ways.

I think Microsoft will go for it all the way. I think Nintendo and Sony will still be selling DVDs and Blu-rays next gen, but either or both will experiment with doing full games as downloads.
 

trinest

Member
TheExodu5 said:
A flash drive is still like 200x the price of a DVD. Be expected for games to sell for $70-80 in that case.
Welcome to Australia.

On another note- I don't think we will return to caterages for consoles. I think we will see more flash based handhelds- heck maybe even a hard-disk in the next DS?
 

M3d10n

Member
bmf said:
And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.

This will be a rough transition if they try too hard to be all-inclusive. *Some* sort of internet access for validation will be a must. There will be accounts. Consoles will be tied to one or multiple user accounts. Large local storage will also be a must - it will not be advantageous for Microsoft to charge out the nose for hard drives. We'll see games marketed and sold in a variety of ways.

I think Microsoft will go for it all the way. I think Nintendo and Sony will still be selling DVDs and Blu-rays next gen, but either or both will experiment with doing full games as downloads.
Yeah, no matter how you slice it'll inevitably end up less convenient than buying a disc, putting it in the drive and playing it. Sony seems to finally have nailed piracy down and I'm sure next-gen will be pretty much piracy-free, so that's one problem out. But it'll take much longer to bypass retail and the problems (for the companies) associated with it while DD doesn't offer significant advantages for customers.
 
Tobor said:
I've yet to see one good reason in this entire thread for any company to try this.
I see plenty of reason, and I think it's going to happen with Microsoft, but it may or may not be with the successor to the 360. I think we'll see downloadable versions of disc games being released later for the 360, and then eventually on the same day.
 

Tobor

Member
bmf said:
I see plenty of reason, and I think it's going to happen with Microsoft, but it may or may not be with the successor to the 360. I think we'll see downloadable versions of disc games being released later for the 360, and then eventually on the same day.

I'm talking about flash sticks replacing discs. I agree 100% on the "DD same day as the disc" scenario.
 

surazal

Member
People are quoting the price of a BD-R vs flash drive. A recordable disk is significantly more expensive than the pressed disc that games/movies use.
 

skybaby

Member
bmf said:
Now here's a problem. One of the biggest problems is that those without internet access would be excluded. License validation is a keystone to this strategy. I wonder if Microsoft could sell limited connectivity (to US customers) in the same way it's bundled with Amazon's Kindle - Sell it as an add-on cellular connection with some sort of low-bandwidth agreement between MS and that carrier. The connectivity couldn't be used for downloading content, but it certainly could be used for license validation and purchase.
Sounds like the Zeebo to me!
 
Tobor said:
I'm talking about flash sticks replacing discs. I agree 100% on the "DD same day as the disc" scenario.
So the question becomes: When do they drop the optical drive, and how can they leverage the availability of cheap flash to get around the lack of cheap unmetered broadband in some areas?

As it stands now, having a physical copy of a game equates to having a license to play it. When does the license get abstracted from the medium?
 

M3d10n

Member
skybaby said:
Sounds like the Zeebo to me!
That's actually genius, if it works. It would be amazing if next gen handhelds move towards that (built-in 3G modem) since I don't thing their games will be much bigger than nowadays (I doubt even Sony will offer DVD-sized games in their next portable).
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
bmf said:
And the whole thing falls apart when your console red rings and you need to get your content all over again.

This will be a rough transition if they try too hard to be all-inclusive. *Some* sort of internet access for validation will be a must. There will be accounts. Consoles will be tied to one or multiple user accounts. Large local storage will also be a must - it will not be advantageous for Microsoft to charge out the nose for hard drives. We'll see games marketed and sold in a variety of ways.

I think Microsoft will go for it all the way. I think Nintendo and Sony will still be selling DVDs and Blu-rays next gen, but either or both will experiment with doing full games as downloads.
Sony is doing it now. Burnout, Siren, Warhawk, GT5P and more are already offered digitally and on disc. Warhawk and SOCOM day one.

The problem is that DD will not be able to take off if metered bandwidth comes in. MOst of PAL is metered now, the US is agressively moving that way, I dont know about Japan. No one will download a 5-25 GB game when their whole limit for the month may be roughly that. PLus, if anything bandwidth is for small quick things, like renting a movie, not for a permanent thing like games.

I dont see DD taking off at all anytime soon since metered internet is so prevalent. It sucks, but its the truth.
 

Crayon Shinchan

Aquafina Fanboy
I think flash memory cards will be handier for portables then for home consoles.

Lower power consumption, plenty of expandable space.

Set up a system at brick a mortar stores; instead of having racks of games in discs, have a game server; user goes into a store, pays the cashier for the chosen game; cashier connects the portable upto the game server; downloads and authenticates the game on the portable, and the user is on their way.

An extra $5-10 and they get a flash memory card to go as well.


Alternatively, something that can apply to both handhelds and consoles; provide the player with a unique card for each console purchased. When the player goes to purchase a game, with the portable they can choose the USB authentication method, or if they don't have the console handy, they can purchase (or just bring along) a flash card and swipe their console identifying card (any card with magnetic strip, or smartchip should be fine).

The game server kiosk then writes the copy of the game keyed to the console, which can then only be operated from that console (or any child consoles linked to that parent console account).


To make the system work from a licensing standpoint of things...

You have to provide the user with fair usage; the plan isn't to allow a single person to buy games and have multiple people leech off him. But at the same time, by providing fair usage, there's not much you can do to prevent leeching; you can make leeching less desirable and more troublesome though.

You'd also want to provide offline access; important given that the kiosk system will mainly be used by those without a broadband connection.

To that end;
1. Console key provided with each console purchased. Provided on a card with magnetic strip/smartchip. This key is inputted and registered into the console at the factory, into the system bios.

2. console key can be used to create a master console account, or it can be linked to a master account as a child account. The user can link upto 2 child accounts to their master console account.

3. Purchases by the user are linked to the master account; when a user goes upto a kiosk, they present their master account card and the kiosk encrypts the key for the purchase, for the master account.

4. Child consoles are registered to master accounts on the internet; either via the internet connection, or by the user bringing both console cards to the kiosk to register; which then encrypts a package to go on a flash card; the flash card is inserted into the child console which then updates its bios with its parent console account number; games are authenticated against that parent number. The package that updates is then deleted by the console.

5. Master accounts can be transferred to another console. However, once that's done, the key to the previous console is essentially frozen. That console can no longer perform firmware updates, nor play new games unless in disc form. Essentially this service is used to transfer games from a non-functioning to a new console. If the customer purchases a later model with the intent of upgrading, they'll need to send the old locked out console back to manufacturer to reflash and reformat and get a new key.

So in that way, any account changes to a persons main account is visible to a centralized server; game purchases are visible, and so are child accounts. Children console are then unable to make any seperate or individual purchases of their own; everything is done through the primary account.

Leeching would then be improbable; you'd lose the ability to action changes to your own console if you've set it as a child console; unless you have access to the master account details and the master account card.


With all that... you get relatively fair access to your game; have it on upto 3 of your own consoles, for whatever reason.
You get full console operability without internet connection.
Games are encrypted and keyed to specific consoles, making DD piracy a difficult prospect.


Of course, the best bet is to have a diversified strategy; DD via kiosks, DD via internet and PODs (plain old discs).
 

Tobor

Member
bmf said:
So the question becomes: When do they drop the optical drive, and how can they leverage the availability of cheap flash to get around the lack of cheap unmetered broadband in some areas?

As it stands now, having a physical copy of a game equates to having a license to play it. When does the license get abstracted from the medium?

When do they drop the optical drive,
Gen after next

and how can they leverage the availability of cheap flash to get around the lack of cheap unmetered broadband in some areas?
By the time they drop the optical drive, it will be unnecessary to provide an alternative.
 

Accident

Member
ciaossu said:
Seriously? Flash media costs dollars, discs cost pennies. That's really the end of the story.

And that's without taking into account the cost of the hard drives needed to something like this to work, that's an extra $100 for a 500GB HDD.
 

DoomGyver

Member
Say I have shit internet,

How about this: I own a flash drive, I go to the store pay my $60 and my flash drive is loaded with the game data. I go home and install it on my console, DRM included.

Now I just have to keep my receipts.
 
Full Recovery said:
Say I have shit internet,

How about this: I own a flash drive, I go to the store pay my $60 and my flash drive is loaded with the game data. I go home and install it on my console, DRM included.

Now I just have to keep my receipts.
Try a little different. You go to the store (or your buddy's house), give them $2 and they load the game onto a flash device for you. You also buy a $60 points card. You take that home with the flash device loaded with the game. You plug the flash device into your console, it copies the game over. You go into the menu, and redeem the points card. Then you go to the "games you have but without licenses" menu and choose the game you just installed and buy a license for it. Total internet data transaction is just a few kilobytes. The idea is that anybody can transfer the encrypted (or possibly just signed) game image around wherever they want, but it's the encrypted transaction between your console and the platform owner that matters.

No need to keep a receipt.
 
I was thinking of starting a thread similar to this. Less specifically about USB flash drives, but flash storage in general. Since recently getting some 4 GB microSD cards for ~$5 and 8 GB microSD cards for less than $20, unless we're up against a price/storage wall, where things will stand five years from now could be pretty crazy.

Certainly this will mean big things on the handheld front. Is there any reason why the successors to DS and PSP won't be using media that is DS card-sized (or less), but would be able to hold at least as much data as a DVD from day one?

jamesinclair said:
Sony wont (mus push blu ray!) MS wont, but I can see Nintendo doing this.

If you can get a 8GB card on amazon for 9.99, production cost is under 5, probably under $3.

Vs a Blue Ray at $1.50

Not a major change.
This is something I was thinking as well. Certainly the advantages for a home console aren't as obvious as for a portable, buuut if you're an iconoclastic corporation who doesn't give a shit about movies but does go for cheap hardware, it becomes a bit more believable. Doing away with (disc-based) Wii backwards compatibility would be a big minus, though.


At the very least, is there any doubt that cheap flash storage will be the built-in storage of choice for next-gen systems? Launch PSP only included a 32 MB Memory Stick, Wii only includes 512 MB of storage, but at the rates prices are going down, 32 gigabytes or more of storage could be an almost negligible cost for a console launching 2011 or later, and be enough for most people.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Another interesting question would be the one about directly connected memory busses vs streaming. Every cartridge based system until the DS directly connected the cartridge to the system's memory bus and data therein can be access directly by the CPU and the GPU. With the DS and optical media you have to stream. Every type of flash media I've ever seen requires streaming.

Will we ever see the return of the directly connected DMA accessible cartridge?

As for built in flash, I think we'll see a situation where all consoles come with a certain amount of built in flash (1 gig) for system purposes, but leave space for game saves and DLC up to the user. Hopefully providing a raw SD slot or SATA port.
 

Luigison

Member
ciaossu said:
Seriously? Flash media costs dollars, discs cost pennies. That's really the end of the story.
Not if there is just one flash media per console for all games. That is, the media is used to transfer the games from the retail store or a friends house and then verified. No need for every game to come on its own media.

Accident said:
And that's without taking into account the cost of the hard drives needed to something like this to work, that's an extra $100 for a 500GB HDD.
You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
Luigison said:
Not if there is just one flash media per console for all games. That is, the media is used to transfer the games from the retail store or a friends house and then verified. No need for every game to come on its own media.


You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.

I think we are starting to discuss two different things.

One is whether console will have large flash built in as opposed to hard drives like today. Today, consoles have flash for OS, and disc for user stuff.

The other is whether flash will be used as a distribution method as opposed to discs or full digital.

I dont think the whole "take your own hard drive/flash drive" to the store thing will happen. For one, every store will need huge servers to keep everything is stock all the time. They have to have it ready, because no one will go to stores and wait 4 hours to download 10gb or more.

Second, metered bandwidth prevents full digital distribution methods from taking place. We are talking 2011, 2012 for a new console age, that's 2-3 years, and if anything bandwidth limits will get smaller not bigger. In the US, ATT and Comcast are just now widely testing metering, which means it may not kick in til 2010, and surely it wont be gotten rid of by 2012. And they cover between them a huge swath of the Internet households in the US.

You are all overlooking a third and crucial point. Retail needs to have easy, reliable, cheap ways to distribute games. A non gamer (a parent, grandparent) needs to be able to walk into a store and browse and pick stuff out. And they wont pay for expensive flash storage and they wont bring their flash from home. They will want to put it in their basket, check out and have something physical to wrap up for their kids, not some online authorization code.

Bluray will likely become the default storage medium next generation, unless Nintendo decides to stick to DVD. Its cheap, reliable, widely known, by then it will be well matured, its huge in storage size, streams very fast and it is still a disc, so in people's minds it is a natural progression.
 
alr1ghtstart said:
Aren't flash drives ridiculously slow compared to discs/hdds?
Decent flash is about equivalent to a hard disk, but with better seek times. The idea won't be to use flash for mass storage on the console, but to use it as a transfer device. On the other hand flash should be present as a system area for the console for the OS and such.
 
I think the key thing to take away from OP is that next-gen should have as many options available made to the consumer. We should receive a bare-bones standard platform for gaming on such a "console" and then decide for ourselves how we want to input the media. Wireless DD, external HD, flash drive...heck maybe even allow you to plug in an external Blu-Ray drive and go from there. These options would minimize console cost and allow players to decide how they will approach their media. Of course it's a lot more complicated and resembles a PC more than a gaming console, but for the enthusiast and younger generation growing up on external wireless flash knick knacks, it's probably not a big deal.

As far as licensing goes, it should be a server side license that verifies everytime you play (or maybe weekly or something). Of course this would necesitate an internet connection but c'mon...you should have one if you're playing games in this day and age.

These things are possible and likely but not for another 10 years I would imagine...
 

AndyD

aka andydumi
myDingling said:
I think the key thing to take away from OP is that next-gen should have as many options available made to the consumer. We should receive a bare-bones standard platform for gaming on such a "console" and then decide for ourselves how we want to input the media. Wireless DD, external HD, flash drive...heck maybe even allow you to plug in an external Blu-Ray drive and go from there. These options would minimize console cost and allow players to decide how they will approach their media. Of course it's a lot more complicated and resembles a PC more than a gaming console, but for the enthusiast and younger generation growing up on external wireless flash knick knacks, it's probably not a big deal.

As far as licensing goes, it should be a server side license that verifies everytime you play (or maybe weekly or something). Of course this would necesitate an internet connection but c'mon...you should have one if you're playing games in this day and age.

These things are possible and likely but not for another 10 years I would imagine...

This is a pretty bad approach. It results in developers not having a standard structure to design for. They dont know what rate they can load stuff (flash, disc, hard drive are all different), whether they can install or stream and whether any of those are even available.

We need a simple console with a standard set of features, but that minimum needs to be very good to begin with. It needs a hard drive built in for installs, mandatory or optional, it needs a standard method to receive (optical or flash or whatever).

I hope that regardless of how we buy a game, we can store it fully and permanently on the hard drive to prevent disc switching from being necessary. Take MSes install option one step further and allow no disc playing. If that means the return of CD keys with disc games, so be it. Use the key to allow install to only one machine. Then, PS3 style, activate and deactivate games from a hardware machine at will. That will be the ultimate convergence. Warhawk wanted to do this with the LAN install option, and I am not sure how it turned out. But being able to resell is crucial with consoles.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
Luigison said:
You're talking about today's price for today's technology. I imagine we'll have much cheaper SSD or similar (non hard) drives with better specs in the next console round.
It will be a long time before SSD price drop below the cost of a regular HDD. And the 360 arcade pack exists for a reason - MS realized that having a HDD as standard meant that they could only ever drop the price of the xbox so low. HDD's have been around for a long time - do you really think that technology is going to change that much in the next 5 or 6 years?
 
AndyD said:
I think we are starting to discuss two different things.

One is whether console will have large flash built in as opposed to hard drives like today.

The other is whether flash will be used as a distribution method.

I dont think the whole "take your own hard drive/flash drive" to the store thing will happen. For one, every store will need huge servers to keep everything is stock all the time. They have to have it ready, because no one will go to stores and wait 4 hours to download 10gb or more.

A multi-terabyte raid isn't a hard thing to do, and should be enough for a *very large* number of games. If we assume compressed images at 10 gigs a game, a 15TB array should cover about 1500 games.

1.5 TB drives are available today for $130 or so. I'm going to assume 5 TB drives will be available in another 3 years for a similar price, and a 4 drive RAID 5 array is going to net you 15TB of space for well under $1000 including the subsystem itself. Assume that it's connected to a $200 PC as a management device, and a smallish $300 touchscreen and another $500 for the rest of it, and you have a whole kiosk at around $2k build price.

AndyD said:
Second, metered bandwidth prevents full digital distribution methods from taking place. We are talking 2011, 2012 for a new console age, that's 2-3 years, and if anything bandwidth limits will get smaller not bigger. In the US, ATT and Comcast are just now widely testing metering, which means it may not kick in til 2010, and surely it wont be gotten rid of by 2012. And they cover between them a huge swath of the Internet households in the US.

Comcast's monthly limit is 250 gigs, last I heard. How many games a month do you expect consumers to buy?

AndyD said:
You are all overlooking a third and crucial point. Retail needs to have easy, reliable, cheap ways to distribute games. A non gamer (a parent, grandparent) needs to be able to walk into a store and browse and pick stuff out. And they wont pay for expensive flash storage and they wont bring their flash from home. They will want to put it in their basket, check out and have something physical to wrap up for their kids, not some online authorization code.

Ok. You have something here. I'm under the impression that publishers will find ways to fill shelf space for larger releases. See how Gamestop and Take 2 are handling "The Lost and Damned":

http://www.gamestop.com/Catalog/ProductDetails.aspx?product_id=73068

AndyD said:
Bluray will likely become the default storage medium next generation, unless Nintendo decides to stick to DVD. Its cheap, reliable, widely known, by then it will be well matured, its huge in storage size, streams very fast and it is still a disc, so in people's minds it is a natural progression.

We'll have to disagree on this. I think that the future is progressing towards a point where digital distribution is king, and physical distribution is an afterthought. We may have one more generation where Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft feel it necessary to include an optical drive with every system, but those days are otherwise numbered.
 

Core407

Banned
I would like to see Sony, MS or Ninty come out with a small device that holds one's profile. It would connect to other systems wirelessly and be downloaded onto the system so players could play on their profiles. Could just put the device on a keychain or something.
 
Flash has potential for devs maybe.

I fail to see why all 360s couldn't have included at LEAST 4GB of flash memory for devs to cache to.

It's not like 4GB of mem was expensive back then.
 

Slavik81

Member
2 Minutes Turkish said:
Flash has potential for devs maybe.

I fail to see why all 360s couldn't have included at LEAST 4GB of flash memory for devs to cache to.

It's not like 4GB of mem was expensive back then.
Back in 2005, it would be expensive to get flash memory that could survive for enough write cycles to be used as a hard drive.
EDIT: In fact, it still is.
 
sh4mike said:
Speculation is fun.

There are many benefits to removing physical media drives from consoles:
1) lower production cost
2) lower warranty expense
3) lower game distribution cost
4) no resale/rental market
5) less (potential) piracy
6) easier backwards compatability (revenue opportunity)

Unfortunately, many consumers do not have access to a limitless broadband service for downloading progressively larger titles. But then I saw an ad for a 16GB USB flash drive for $15. That's likely a production cost of less than $10. And it got me thinking about the potential for a driveless next-gen system:

1) sell game online for $40 (online manual for easy printout as desired)
2) sell game in B&M for $50 (=pre-loaded flash drive in a case with manual)

Pehaps you could even have a bring-your-own-flash to B&M for cheaper downloads, but not sure this would be worth the hassle.

Having the game available in stores would keep the B&M happy so they would stock the system. Flash drives are small so the cases wouldn't take up much more space than current optical disks. The flash drive would lock to the first system it accesses to prevent game sharing (can transfer licenses online a few times a year aka X360 protocol).

What am I missing?

1) True--- but even with flash based devices, we're still going to have the problem of which Sony, Microsoft and even Nintendo haven't addressed and that is different SKU's based on different needs. To truly lower costs, they need to pick say like a 320GB solid state drive and use that for the entirety of the consoles life instead of shifting around to different products.

2) Yes. Why or how is that possible? Less moving parts... less having to worry about inventory etc.

3) So I'm assuming you're thinking of games being distributed by flash based drives?

4) Need some more clarification on this. If the thought is it costs less for game makers to mass produce the games on flash based drives, then games will be cheaper? Also--- The rental arena dying off? Dunno if I see that happening unless the Big 3 mandated demos for people to try the games out. As far as resale goes..... people are cheap and people will still sell stuff for cheaper than you can buy them in store or online.

5) Doubtful.... but who knows.

6) Hope so. The issue is getting a company to stick with a standard of which a developer knows that "Oh hey... Microsoft will have a hard drive standard on their next Xbox system so we can integrate our games now with that for forward thinking for DLC or other extras." Big, big gamble.

What I can see happening is Sony, MS or Nintendo, using a "certificate" like standards for their own "flash" drives of which you can buy to keep your games, saves, trophies, achievements, gamercard downloads, etc. but that price will probably be a premium; That premium will have their each security algorithm for them to allow gamers to move about more freely with their purchases.

Now what is not known is if this even gets a nod, do the companies system lock the cards once they are installed and used on one system? Do you only lock out the games or do you allow a sort of "DMZ" for the card to have preferences, gamercard PSN, Wii Friends etc. to be accessed on any machine the flash drive goes to?

Great questions and a good thread. :)
 
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