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Prediction time: Will VR be as popular in gaming in 2026 as PS4 is in 2016?

KooopaKid

Banned
The other threads being too vague about what the future of VR and what mainstream means, post your predictions here with a bit of explanation.

My prediction:

No, VR will still be very niche in gaming in 2026.
Why? Because it will still be too expensive, too cumbersome, too nauseating, socially rejected, too few studios supporting it and too few worthwhile content.
 

NeoRausch

Member
Errrr..,

yes


Edit:

Let me rephrase that.

Prices go down
Tech gets better
No one knows what will happen in that timespan.
 

ThisGuy

Member
It will decline around that time as ar takes off. But it will be huge at the time. We'll also start to see consumer jet packs pick up steam. It will be interesting in 2026. Gonna miss driving my car.
 

Sakura

Member
It's difficult for me to make a prediction when I haven't had a chance to try it yet.
Maybe we should wait till they are officially out.
 

majik13

Member
I predict 10 more VR threads today.

As for the OT, maybe? VR will likely be more ubiquitous than just gaming. Well it will be, but I am not sure gaming will be its biggest application.
 
I don't think VR belongs as a mainstream home product. It's not built as a living room device; it's a socially suffocating block that you strap to your head. As a peripheral it's pretty damn expensive and while I don't doubt it's immersive I do doubt that it will have much lasting appeal. It's like 3D movies, at first it was a selling point for seeing a film but fast forward a few years and booking Star Wars in 3D was an accident that my Fiancé and I had to deal with.

Immersion quite frankly isn't the reason I play games, it's to have fun. I don't dislike VR but I can't see it succeeding in gaming, not now - not ever. The general public are not interested in cutting themselves off from their family with a $600 device, you can argue phones and tablets already do this but for those who have kids, would you rather they stare at their phone or strap a box to their heads? I think it's incredibly anti-social and certainly don't think there's mass appeal for VR, people think it's cool no doubt but do people really want to buy it? I don't think so. We live in a world where people didn't care enough about glasses free 3D.
 

senahorse

Member
In 10 years? We might be wearing something like the form factor of sunglasses, that are wireless and that do both VR and AR.
 

KooopaKid

Banned
I don't think VR belongs as a mainstream home product. It's not built as a living room device; it's a socially suffocating block that you strap to your head. As a peripheral it's pretty damn expensive and while I don't doubt it's immersive I do doubt that it will have much lasting appeal. It's like 3D movies, at first it was a selling point for seeing a film but fast forward a few years and booking Star Wars in 3D was an accident that my Fiancé and I had to deal with.

Immersion quite frankly isn't the reason I play games, it's to have fun. I don't dislike VR but I can't see it succeeding in gaming, not now - not ever. The general public are not interested in cutting themselves off from their family with a $600 device, you can argue phones and tablets already do this but for those who have kids, would you rather they stare at their phone or strap a box to their heads? I think it's incredibly anti-social and certainly don't think there's mass appeal for VR, people think it's cool no doubt but do people really want to buy it? I don't think so. We live in a world where people didn't care enough about glasses free 3D.

Now that's a prediction.

People seemed to have such strong feelings in the other threads but when it's time to make a more precise prediction, where's everyone? ;)
 

Arkam

Member
NO. Too soon. Probably will be getting traction. But I dont see anywhere near PS4 success that soon. Look back 10 years and see how much things have/have not changed.
 

FZZ

Banned
Nope

and by then there will be even better tech. VR is a stop gap that everyone is hyping up and is far too impractical for all the uses people are suggesting it will be.
 

espher

Member
It will be as popular with enthusiasts in 2026 as the PS4 is with enthusiasts in 2016, but it will likely not take off with the Madden/CoD crowd. I think we'll be seeing some very creative experiences and/or uses of it in 2026 that have mainstream appeal (I'm expecting someone to record a film that is best experienced by someone in a VR headset), but in PC/console gaming, it's going to remain pretty niche (much as console gaming is becoming in and of itself vis-a-vis mobile gaming).

Long-term in gaming I expect it to be a peripheral that greatly enriches games, especially in certain genres, like we see with controllers and genres now. You can play racing games, flight/space combat games, and fighting games with a standard controller, but they are immensely improved by a tailored controller, and that's likely what we'll see with gaming. I don't see the bulk of games being 'built for' VR because people are cheap and hate change, but some games will be made better by its inclusion.

Speaking personally, I can say today that there are several compelling reasons for me to buy a PC VR headset (and more coming), and very few for a PS4 or even PSVR at this point in time, but that mostly comes down to genres and available libraries. I think space combat/flight sims and racing games are going to the biggest short-term beneficiaries of VR, and the strongest entrants in those fields are in the PC space right now. I don't need a VR headset for Disgaea or FF15 or whatever, and I don't expect those games to support them, because they don't need VR.
 
Will VR be as popular in gaming in 2026 as PS4 is in 2016?
In other words, will VR sell 30+ million devices* by 2026? I think so.

I would assume that most people will try it on their phones as a novelty and to show to their friends (or to play mobile VR games connected with other people - remember, we're talking 10 years from now). Then there'll be a (most likely) lower number of people trying it and buying it for consoles (PS4 and NX/XBO if they decide to follow), and finally a lot (but not the majority) of people buying it for PC. Gaming will be big, I assume (I mean, VR gaming will be big among hardcore PC gamers) but a few years from now a lot of other applications will start to show: virtual chats/spaces and other types of serious applications will surely crop up for day to day stuff.

As for being "popular" (i.e. people talking about it and VR kits being in college dorms/etc), it may take longer than that, but just wait until some talk show starts plugging people's heads into headsets (everyone in the first two rows gets to go to Mars with Conan!) and word of mouth will start to pick up. I think it'll happen.

* devices include Oculus, Morpheus, Gear, Vive, Google Cardboard, etc.
edit: I should probably have said PS4 & PS5, XBO & XBT and NX & NXX since that's 10 years from now.
 

KooopaKid

Banned

Steel

Banned
Between google cardboard, PSVR, Gear VR, Vive, OR, and whatever else jumps in in the meantime?

Yeah. Hell, there are already millions of Gear VR and Cardboard sets out there.
 
I think VR being popular, perhaps even ubiquitous is inevitable. There's just too many interesting things about it, including how well it fits with a ton of science fiction ideas about future versions of the Internet or similar, for me to believe that won't happen *eventually*.

As for whether what launches this year will be the beginning of that trend, I honestly don't know. I think it'll really depend on the reaction from the public at large, which we still have no real sense of, and won't until Oculus or someone else has some way to demonstrate VR on a mass scale, whether it's at major chain stores, or not.
 

mario_O

Member
I think it will be very popular among gamers and it will bring new forms of social media that some people will use but not the majority.
 

reKon

Banned
JESUS CHRIST you have an agenda

WOW.... LOL

It looks like he's going to be eating the most crow.

OP: you should actually try it first before making poor assumptions.

EDIT: I guess you have tried the Devkit2

Also, why don't you think the price for this technology will come down over time?
 

Nickle

Cool Facts: Game of War has been a hit since July 2013
No one uses iPods any more, VR headsets will go the way of the iPod.
 

Ferrio

Banned
No because the world gets enslaved by aliens in the year 2022. A pity, I would of liked to bump this thread in 10 years.
 

MUnited83

For you.
Great post...
Since people are pretending to bookmark the other threads for future reference, why not make precise claims since it's so easy to predict that "VR is the future" or "VR is DOA"!

I mean, you're doing the exact same shit in the OP. Every single one of your points makes no sense and assumes that technology never gets cheaper or better with time.




Also lol @ the same old shitty arguments that VR is being a extreme anti social experience lel. Right outta of old people yelling at clouds complaining about kids watching too much TV or being on their phones all the time. Congrats grandpa!
 
No, that's twisting it. Will there be 30+ million more or less active VR users IN 2026.
Fair enough.

I don't think 100% of the sold-through PS4 to date are currently active users, but it's probably a high percentage. If we're talking about online gaming, the percentage gets lower, but then you can actually talk about a tangible measurement unit. How would we measure how is using their VR unit? Sure, there will probably be a number of people that buy it and does not game as much with it as they game on their base primary platform (PC, console, phone, etc), but how can we tell? Number of VR games sold? How much a VR app takes off? Will there be facebook integration with Oculus so that then we can get reports on how many users are active in Facebook VR chat (or whatever)?

To actually answer your question, I think the number of active users may be lower than 30 million. I feel like "ask me again later" would be a better response. If it takes off in the next 2 years, then yes. If 5 years from now it turned to be a fad, well, then obviously not.

For the record: I don't think these devices in their current form will become the next smartphone/tablet craze, but I do think VR will take off in both gaming and serious apps.
 
It all depends on the content, if it's not there vr will flop.

It needs to be really compelling, not just a quick and dirty adaptation if vr is to have legs
 

KooopaKid

Banned
WOW.... LOL

It looks like he's going to be eating the most crow.

OP: you should actually try it first before making poor assumptions.

Also, why don't you think the price for this technology will come down over time?

What do you answer to the thread title? What's your prediction?

I've tried it. I don't see it catching on for the reasons stated in the OP.
I don't think the price will go down as new and better iterations will release and stay at a high cost. New consoles always release at around the same initial price.
 

KooopaKid

Banned
I mean, you're doing the exact same shit in the OP. Every single one of your points makes no sense and assumes that technology never gets cheaper or better with time.

Also lol @ the same old shitty arguments that VR is being a extreme anti social experience lel. Right outta of old people yelling at clouds complaining about kids watching too much TV or being on their phones all the time. Congrats grandpa!

Make an opposite prediction then if I make no sense. I explained my reasoning. What's yours?

It took consoles decades to get here and you ask if VR can pull it off in 10 years ? lol

But VR is the future you see! When it's time to get real, and make a realistic prediction there's no-one. If VR is the future, why is it so hard to answer YES to my question then?
Where are the fervent defenders of VR?
 
What do you answer to the thread title? What's your prediction?

I've tried it. I don't see it catching on for the reasons stated in the OP.
I don't think the price will go down as new and better iterations will release and stay at a high cost. New consoles always release at around the same initial price.

Wanna guess what an atari cost adjusted for inflation? $796. Prices will come down given time, manufacturing processes improve etc. We are day zero here for consumer VR.
 

senahorse

Member
I would think the price absolutely goes down, at some point we reach a stage where resolution combined with tech like foveated rendering creates diminishing returns for screen resolution, the optics will get cheaper within time, as well as other associated parts. Sure there will be new features and standalone headsets that have built in compute and different form factors being iterated on and some things will definitely add to the cost but for a headset that uses your PC's CPU/GPU the price will only get lower for the most part.

edit: There is also the other multitude of uses, such as sport and other live events, training tools (used in medicine, engineering etc), work at home applications, meetings, people being able to sit at the xmas table while away. There are so many uses for this technology, it's staggering.
 
But VR is the future you see! When it's time to get real, and make a realistic prediction there's no-one. If VR is the future, why is it so hard to answer YES to my question then?
Where are the fervent defenders of VR?
VR just came out so good luck making predictions rofl
maybe in 5 years you'll be able to see clearer where VR is heading, but now you're just wasting your breath
 

senahorse

Member
Do you think it will be affordable in 2026? I think not. High-end smart phones are still expensive.

The bleeding edge of everything is always expensive. The first smart phones were around $1000, you can now buy something potentially magnitudes (at least much more powerful) more powerful for $50.
 
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