...Of course, the big news this week (and maybe the week after that and the week after that), is how Sony slashed its projected PS3 launch shipment target from two million to 500,000, and delayed the European launch of the system until March 2007--so much for a worldwide launch.
According to Pachter, the delay is likely to be detrimental to European retailers this holiday season, but US retailers will be "largely unaffected." In the long run, though, he said that the launch problems will be forgotten in time, and "not a big deal" in the grand scheme of the PS3's lifecycle. Comparisons to back up this belief could be drawn from the inadequate PS2 launch supplies, as well as the iffy Xbox 360 launch last year. With both consoles, the troubled infant stages of their lives have faded almost into distant memory.
Pacther acknowledged that Xbox 360 sales would remain strong, with monthly sales of 250,000 units of Xbox 360 in August and September, up to 400,000 units in October, and between 750,000 1.25 million units monthly in November and December.
However, as the Xbox 360 and PS3 have been thoroughly analyzed, what's to be said about the Wii? WMS expects the sales of three million hardware units in the US and Europe by year-end, and Pachter had perhaps the most optimistic words for Nintendo and its next console.
"The Wii's going to crush," Pacther said simply. "It's going to do really well."
And what about the third party publishers that have sat back and been somewhat lacking in their support of the Wii? It seems that after E3 in May, the gears started turning in some publishers' heads, and they realized that Wii software needs to be accounted for, else they'll miss out on a significant source of revenue. Publishing giant Electronic Arts even made clear during its most recent quarterly financial call that it would be moving resources to both Wii and DS development in light of the positive reception and buzz surrounding those platforms.
Pachter continued his confidence in Nintendo's take on console gaming. Referring to third parties, he said, "They'll all be there. They're all going there. Anybody realizes now that the Wii is going to be a lot bigger than everybody thought six months ago. We all heard about it a year ago, but I don't think that we realized how impressive it was until we saw it at E3. ... Some people thought that it would turn out to be kind of a gimmicky toy, and it turned out to be kind of a cool thing.
"I think the EyeToy is a gimmicky toy, and the concept of the EyeToy and Wii really is the same. I mean, the concept; there's interaction. So I think the publisher reaction to the Wii when it was first proposed was the same as the reaction to the EyeToy. Now, I think they're saying it's not, and you can really make some games that are cool and that are different, that people want to play."
He continued, "At the same time, you're seeing the success of these Brain Age and Brain Training games that you use the stylus to play. People are like, 'Wow, maybe the consumer wants to be more interactive with the device.' It makes sense."
Nintendo's onto something. They're not stupid people. It's really impressive what they've been doing, and [they're making] a really bold move, and it's working so far."
Just another guy's opinion
So, right now, analysts, including the centerpiece of this article, the oft-quoted Michael Pachter, are all reacting to the developments this week. Some were surprised, some say they expected it. It's quite possible (or quite probable, rather) that something absolutely unexpected and/or crazy will happen that throws these guys for yet another loop, nixing pretty much every aforementioned prediction and numerical forecast. Still, we think that it's important to understand where these unique folks known as videogame analysts are coming from, especially in light of this week's craziness.
Contrary to popular belief, they're not just pulling these numbers out of their asses.
