September 2006 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 20% Sales Growth
We expect September U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, October 12. We forecast sales of $415 million, up 19.6% compared to last year.
Though share prices for most publishers have increased over the last two months, we expect some volatility should the console transition experience any hiccups. We expect continued share appreciation over the remainder of the year due to relatively easy monthly sales comparisons, with some volatility around the launch of the PS3 and Wii in November.
Our estimate reflects $168 million in sales contribution from new platforms (Xbox 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $130 million. We expect current generation software sales of $247 million, reflecting a decline of 20% compared to last year.
Sales growth over the last three months has averaged a robust 17%, and we expect double-digit salesgrowth to continue through November.
Given recent sell-through strength at retail, we now believe that modest declines in current generation software sales will be more than offset by contribution from next generation software sales. PS3 and Wii software sales are expected to contribute $432 million to overall sales growth for the year, and given that launch timing and quantities are getting clearer, we expect overall 2006 U.S. sales to be at least 4% higher than 2005 levels.
We recommend that investors accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, and THQ shares at current levels.
For September, we expect the following:
o Activision - $21 million, down 34% compared to last year.
o Atari - $7 million, up 24% compared to last year.
o Electronic Arts - $110 million, up 8% compared to last year.
o Majesco - $3 million, up 80% compared to last year.
o Midway - $6 million, down 32% compared to last year.
o Take-Two - $18 million, up 29% compared to last year.
o THQ - $45 million, up 102% compared to last year.
We expect September sales to be driven by new releases THQs Saints Row (360), LucasArts Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy (PS2, Xbox, PSP, DS, GBA, GC, 360, PC), Nintendos Pokemon Mystery Dungeon (DS, GBA) and Mario vs. Donkey Kong 2 (DS), and Electronic Arts NBA Live 07 (PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, 360) along with continued strong sales of Electronic Arts Madden NFL 07. We note that 9 games sold over 100,000 units in August, and we expect 10 in September (compared to 7 last year).
It appears that the recent sales strength on current generation platforms is sustainable, given strong sell-through performance for three consecutive months. Consumers appear willing to purchase compelling content for current generation consoles in spite of the imminent launches of the PS3 and Wii, and have embraced software for the DS and PSP, driving monthly sales higher. Through August, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.4 million units, and we expect monthly sales of 250,000 units in September. The Xbox 360 is now readily available, we expect Microsoft to sell approximately 400,000 hardware units in October, between 750,000 1 million units in November, and between 1.5 2 million units December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.
Some SW Expectations
We believe that Test Drive Unlimited sold 50,000 units its first month.
We believe that Madden led sales with 700,000 units sold in its second month, slightly higher than last year. We think that NBA Live sold over 200,000 units, and that NASCAR sold over 150,000 units. We do not believe that The Godfather sold well, and expect sales to total fewer than 50,000 units.
We believe new release NBA 2K7 sold 125,000 units, with more than half of those on the Xbox 360.
We believe sales were led by new release (released at the end of August, but first month of reporting) Saints Row selling 350,000 units.
