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Pachter on Go success: “I give this 4 months at the top of charts, then it will die."

Thats longer than I've been thinking. Isnt four months pretty good for a mobile game insofar as longevity?
 
Looks like Pokemon GO is going to be on top of the charts for the next decade!

Actually I agree with Pac; don't see how this game will last past this year. Not much to do after you're a high level. Taking over gyms is stupid after a while.
 
4 months on top would be pretty damn amazing?

And if not, what the hell is going to top this? Mario Kart? Lol
 
MarioLinkSamus said:
“The game requires couch potatoes to get off the couch, and the novelty will wear off when they get tired or when their phone batteries die,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst. “I give this four months at the top of the charts, then it will fade.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ere-are-hungrily-eyeing-pokemon-go-phenomenon

Lure me if old.
Click to expand...

He's probably right, but I think more subtly, people will start to recognize how poorly designed some aspects of the app are, like coupling networking code to the UI. I don't know how stability updates will completely solve this without rewriting large parts of the game.

I don't think I've ever used an app that crashes/freezes more than this. It's actually kind of remarkable that it's successful in spite of this.
 
Even if it stays on top for one month, at this rate, it will be a huge success.
It's not even out in half of the world and the society is already on fire.
 
The Plus accessory as well as frequent updates that they say they're going to do will probably make this game sustain a pretty sizable player base for some time.
 
Yeah, this is the mobile cycle.

Anyone remember how hot Draw Something was?

Though on the flip side, SOME titles do have staying power. Words With Friends is an unwavering staple with most.

But yeah, when you've got Pokemon GO getting segments on ABC/NBC evening World News, you know its got "fad" written all over it.

Pachter is right on this one.
 
Ashby said:
Thats longer than I've been thinking. Isnt four months pretty good for a mobile game insofar as longevity?
Click to expand...

Not really, but Pokemon GO's level of success is unprecedented. It certainly won't (and doesn't need) to be at this level for four months, but will remain profit if Nintendo/Niantic managed to run their service successfully.
 
Remember when people thought Miitomo was going to be the top-dog app after it released?

Now I know Pokemon GO has more actual use to it than just being some quirky personality quiz, but I wouldn't look past the idea that Pokemon GO hype is at fever-pitch for the next week or 2 and then slowly everyone forgets it exists.
 
Even when the fad inevitably ends, I still think this game is going to be significantly more popular than Ingress, which already had a very dedicated following. The companies involved will be fine as long as they can adjust to these inevitably lower numbers.
 
Well, the trade and competitve battle can make die hard fan still hooked while maybe they can also add more interactivity of the pokemon for more casual gamer.
 
Four months is a good bet. Kids will be back in school, less people will be outside unless they have to. People are really, really bored in the summer.
 
I really dont understand how they havent added friend features from the start, thats key to keep users engaged. Find your friends through the phone book and facebook, add them, see what pokemons they have, allow to trade and battle them.

If they wouldve added this from the start it wouldve had so much more longetivity.
 
Abilidebob said:
A decade of success confirmed then.
Click to expand...

Anth0ny said:
Pokemon Go is the next Clash of Clans confirmed
Click to expand...

liquidtmd said:
Patcher uses Prediction

It's not super effective
Click to expand...

Really wish people would stop this shit in Pachter threads. Is the "people are annoyed by apps/games draining their phone battery" such a moot point? I'm having a blast with office and friends so far, but can't see myself coming back to it in 4 months too.
 
I think he may be right and might actually be too generous. I'm not sure I see Random Person all that compelled to go seek out Pokemon 2 months from now. The novelty is cool and making it a huge hit now, but I'm not sure I see it lasting unless they nail the content updates.
 
I can fully agree with this as the app stands. Word on the street is that they're planning content updates in the form of player-to-player trading, though. If they add in realtime player battles? Yeah, they're around for a very, very long time.
 
Seeing as I've already had a bunch of people drop the game that were all about it over the weekend I'm not sure it would even be 4 months. I do think they could make the game a long term success and a real deal cultural phenomenon if they are smart with major content updates. Seriously add battling, trading and a bunch of elements over time and I think you could get kids addicted like they were with Minecraft.
 
ThisOne said:
This type of reply is so old and stale.
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I know for a while people had been monitoring his predictions and tracking their regular failures/inaccuracies. Did this stop at some point? Did he switch things up and start turning out to be correct more often than wrong?
 
You heard it here first folks, invest in Nintendo stock while you still can! This train ain't stopping till we hit gold baby!
 
Composer said:
Looks like Pokemon GO is going to be on top of the charts for the next decade!

Actually I agree with Pac; don't see how this game will last past this year. Not much to do after you're a high level. Taking over gyms is stupid after a while.
Click to expand...
That's what content updates are for.
I don't expect this game to have a crazy fanbase for years, but I could see quite a high amount of core fans (same as or higher than Ingress) that will generate enough revenue to keep the game afloat for a long time.
 
Do you know Pokémon franchise Patchter?
May not stay at the top for 4 months but it won't die for sure.

This guy surely do eat sh*t.
 
Dice// said:
Winters won't help.
Click to expand...

This is why he said 4 months...........

It's going to fall off in the winter and likely by Spring won't be able to "recover." (EDIT: recover as to get to the same active users as before, thus his "fade" comment)

What a DB for giving those other reasons and trying to act all profound.
 
GrantDaNasty said:
Remember when people thought Miitomo was going to be the top-dog app after it released?

Now I know Pokemon GO has more actual use to it than just being some quirky personality quiz, but I wouldn't look past the idea that Pokemon GO hype is at fever-pitch for the next week or 2 and then slowly everyone forgets it exists.
Click to expand...

who the hell said that? It never had a chance of being top game, their monetization was not strong and there was very little to do.
 
i'm nowhere near completing my Pokédex and I haven't even touched battles yet, but I can see the novelty wears off for me personally in the coming 2 to 3 weeks. They better start adding some features on there to keep me engaged more often. Like trading as a lot of other people have asked for, breeding? decorations to obtain for Pokémon? mini games? The ability to check other people's profiles, Pokédex, etc.
 
UncleSporky said:
I know for a while people had been monitoring his predictions and tracking their regular failures/inaccuracies. Did this stop at some point? Did he switch things up and start turning out to be correct more often than wrong?
Click to expand...

I don't know, but if that's the type of reply in these threads, what's even the point in making the thread? Honest question.
 
DNAbro said:
who the hell said that? It never had a chance of being top game, their monetization was not strong and there was very little to do.
Click to expand...

People lost their fucking minds the first week Miitomo was out, or at least it seemed that way to me. You had people talking about "#1 App in the store" and all these other clickbait titles that didn't actually mean anything in the bigger picture.
 
Right now it's a novelty but the potential is there for a game that could last years. I just don't know if they can keep people hooked while they wait. The game is really devoid of content and even paying money doesn't fix it.
 
Haha what a joke 4 months on the top of the chart is actually pretty good very few games can stay up for long periods of time Patcher being Patch as always
 
Dice// said:
Winters won't help.
Click to expand...

It's winter already in two out of the three countries it's already available in. From my observation, that isn't stopping people.

But yeah, I'm sure the hysteria will calm down before the northern hemisphere's winter.
 
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