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Gamasutra: 150-200k for PS3 launch in North America

M

monchi-kun

Member
what happened to 400k?

Gamasutra.com said:
November 14, 2006

Analyst: 'Battle Royale' To See 150-200k PS3s For Launch?
In his latest interactive entertainment notes, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian has made his predictions on the 'battle royale' set to take place this week as the Wii and PS3 see their official US lanches.

Says Sebastian, "This week represents a significant milestone in the interactive entertainment universe," though, he hastens to add, "the significance of the launches for the software publishers is largely symbolic, as the new consoles will not likely be meaningful drivers of software sales until later next year when we expect the installed bases of the PS3 and Wii to reach more critical mass."

Still, "excitement surrounding the hardware launches backed by significant marketing budgets from Microsoft (Xbox 360), Sony (PS3 and PSP) and Nintendo (Wii and DS) – should benefit overall industry trends through the holiday."

On retailers' struggles to secure and supply a continuous flow of hardware, Sebastian adds that Lazard continues to expect shortages for most stores: "Our channel checks with retailers indicate that there is strong interest in both the PS3 and Wii; most stores sold out of pre-orders quickly."

"We expect Sony to deliver 150-200k units to stores in the United States for the launch; consumers without pre-orders may find it difficult to locate an available system. We estimate sales of approximately 750k PS3s domestically by year-end. We expect a more robust launch from Nintendo, with at least 1.2 million units sold in the U.S. and up to four million units shipped worldwide by year-end."

"Due to the limited initial installed base of the platforms, we believe the financial impact over the holiday period will be more significant for hardware manufacturers and video game retailers (such as GameStop) than for software publishers."

In addition to predicting a strong push for Xbox 360 products due to a shortage in PS3 supply, Sebastian also says the newly launched consoles may not have as significant an impact on holiday sales.

He adds: "We expect less than 15% of software sales to come from the PS3 and Wii this holiday; the more numerous Xbox 360, PS2 and handheld platforms (DS and PSP) remain key drivers of growth," though, he predicts, "this fifth major platform transition is likely to be the largest product launch in the industry’s history."
Click to expand...
 
U

Unison

Member
typo said:
Sony... what the **** are you doing?
Click to expand...

smacked-avatar.gif
 
pr0cs

pr0cs

Member
If there are going to be so few units this holiday in NA, I wonder if the Euro launch will also be pushed back to fill demand.
Or perhaps it will just be a "paper" launch in Europe and consoles not making it onto shelves in Europe till fall 2007.
 
D

drohne

hyperbolically metafictive
colin sebastian said:
...consumers without pre-orders may find it difficult to locate an available system.
Click to expand...

when analysis doesn't quite cover the bills colin sebastian moonlights as a professional understater
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Okay, I don't get it. What do you expect Sony to do? They are making them as fast as they can. They aren't sitting on their asses somewhere like, "Yep, gotta get those PS3s done...but man is this margarita tasty."

If they are rerouting them, I could understand frustration, but everyone knows that is BS anyway.
 
Dr. Kitty Muffins

Dr. Kitty Muffins

Member
So they are basically launching just 300,000 console in NA and Japan?

But you know what, the mainstream media won't burn them for this. They will instead write tons of stoires about how the PS3 sold out in record time!

Best Buy will be offering alot of 360's in their abscence.

And just how many people will end up cancelling their pre-orders isntead of waiting till jan, feb or even March to get one?
 
A

AdmiralViscen

Banned
wowwwww

With only 150-200+80k available in the week of launch, how can they still expect 750k in the US by the end of the year?

koam said:
Not lie when they give us their shipment numbers?
Click to expand...

Or create a feasibly mass-produced console in the first place.
 
M

mrroboto

Banned
Until Sony comes out with official launch numbers(though I doubt they will) I wouldn't believe anyone at this point.

Every man for yourself!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
koam said:
Not lie when they give us their shipment numbers?
Click to expand...

What is the incentive to lie here? We'll make people so excited...and then...we won't give them any!! MUHAHAHAH!!!

Or maybe they missed their shipment target? OMG SO EVIL!!
 
M

monchi-kun

Member
AdmiralViscen said:
wowwwww

With only 150-200+80k available in the week of launch, how can they still expect 750k in the US by the end of the year?
Click to expand...

shipping an average of 92k units per week...i was hoping that some stores would have stock, especially at my local Kmart that's practically surrounded by senior citizen housing. I'll see if I can walk in a pick one up anyways, shouldn't hurt to try
 
R

Razoric

Banned
Y2Kevbug11 said:
What is the incentive to lie here? We'll make people so excited...and then...we won't give them any!! MUHAHAHAH!!!

Or maybe they missed their shipment target? OMG SO EVIL!!
Click to expand...

Incompetent is the better word.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
AdmiralViscen said:
wowwwww

With only 150-200+80k available in the week of launch, how can they still expect 750k in the US by the end of the year?
Click to expand...
manufacturing yields will be improving. honest.
 
D

Dahbomb

Member
Sony didn't ship under 80K units like the analysts predicted in Japan, they shipped 100K and 88,400 are registered as sold. I will believe this 200K number when I see it.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
What did 360 sell in NA for November 2005? 330K? Never thought I'd see a launch that was worse. I guess if Sony airfreights in units for the rest of the year they'll come out ahead, but given that demand is higher for anything with the words 'Playstation' printed on it, this is a bigger shortage mess no matter how you measure it. And airfreight is going to drive up losses and piss off shareholders.
 
A

AdmiralViscen

Banned
monchi-kun said:
shipping an average of 92k units per week
Click to expand...

No shit.

If in the last month (or more?) of production, they could only squeeze out 150-200k+80-100k units, what makes any of you think they can produce 92k a week from this point forward?

edit: Actually, that's 92k a week just for the US.
 
Y

Ynos Yrros

Banned
"Hey, I'm John... I expect sun to fall down and crash our timeline making Jesus come back.... but not just one Jesus, TWO JESUSES!" Gaf: "OMG GOTTA TAKE THE CAMERA!"
 
ManaByte

ManaByte

Rage Bait Youtuber
Dahbomb said:
Sony didn't ship under 80K units like the analysts predicted in Japan, they shipped 100K and 88,400 are registered as sold. I will believe this 200K number when I see it.
Click to expand...

Yup.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Razoric said:
Incompetent is the better word.
Click to expand...

How are they incompetent? Do you think Sony has any control now over diode production?

The only reason I could see people being pissed about this is because Sony put Blu-Ray into the PS3 or chose a component that is fairly rare. At this point, we're so far gone there isn't anything they can do about it.

It's not like they can fix this and aren't. They're ****ed.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
beermonkey@tehbias said:
What did 360 sell in NA for November 2005? 330K? Never thought I'd see a launch that was worse.
Click to expand...
That's the amazing thing. I too thought the 360 set the bar for ****ed up launches. Though, if Sony's numbers hold their December will be better.
 
R

Razoric

Banned
Y2Kevbug11 said:
How are they incompetent? Do you think Sony has any control now over diode production?

The only reason I could see people being pissed about this is because Sony put Blu-Ray into the PS3 or chose a component that is fairly rare. At this point, we're so far gone there isn't anything they can do about it.

It's not like they can fix this and aren't. They're ****ed.
Click to expand...

They chose Blu Ray, they chose to release this year. You give them too many breaks. They f*cked up and we are allowed to call them out on it. (just like people always laugh at 360's launch disaster. which side were you on then huh? ;) )
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
I said what Wario says when he sees an amazing screenshot, or alternatively, a screenshot which is not amazing. 3rd parties are fuming. Blu Ray group is fuming. It will be better next year tho.
 
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