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How long before PS3 manufacturing cost matches 360's

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Toshiba has recently announce that they are going full steam ahead with CELL products in your living room (sony already has 4 products in the works):
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,128312/article.html

Blue Diodes are being consumed like mad and HDMI seems like no biggie to be included in an HDTV nowadays (used to be only the expensive models).

These are arguably the most expensive parts of the PS3 and with all this mass production of them happening, will the tech cost of making these machines reach that of it's nearest competitor sooner than we think?

I predict PS3 core will eliminate the manufacturing cost difference between the 360 in 2+ years.

What do you guys think?

[please note I say Manufacturing cost. Actual price depends on business model which cannot be predicted]

For those who are confuse by the comment:
Mass production is the production of large amounts of standardised products on production lines. It was popularised by Henry Ford in the early 20th Century, notably in his Ford Model T. Mass production is notable because it permits very high rates of production per person and therefore provides very inexpensive products.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_production

EDIT: January 12th, 2006
Cell processor partners IBM, Sony and Toshiba have agreed to take their technology R&D alliance into the 32nm era.

The trio first announced its plan to cooperate on the development of Cell and its underlying 90nm and 65nm fabrication technology back in 2001. Back then, they described the project as a five-year programme costing $400m.

Yesterday, the trio ushered in a second, five-year phase, this time extending the chip fabrication side of the alliance to the 32nm node and beyond.

What's missing from the announcement is discussion of the firm's plans for 45nm fabrication - suggesting Cell may skip a generation. Certainly, IBM's Lisa Su, the head of Big Blue's semiconductor operation, said the new deal focuses on "the next generation of process technologies" - implying 32nm is next-generation and 45nm isn't.

That said, Sony and Toshiba already have a separate 45nm joint development programme in place. In February 2004, the companies announced they would spend $190m to reach 45nm in 2005, at the same time other chip companies, most notably Intel, were reaching 65nm. Not that there's been any public announcement of late that the pair have achieved that goal.

The absence of IBM from the 45nm announcement may explain why all the 32nm R&D appears to be going to happen at IBM, specifically its Thomas J. Watson Research Center in Yorktown Heights, New York and at its 300mm-wafer manufacturing facility in East Fishkill. Research will also be undertaken at the Center for Semiconductor Research at Albany NanoTech, the companies said. ®
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/01/12/ibm_sony_toshiba_32nm_cell/

EDIT: July 26, 2007
Sony currently incurs an estimated $200 loss on every PlayStation 3 sold, but an exec from the firm said today that loss could be eliminated this fiscal year.

During a conference call Sony executive VP Nobuyuki Oneda said the firm may be able to break even on PS3 hardware this fiscal year, which ends in March 2008.

He said that the main cost-downs would have to occur in the Cell processor, RSX graphics chip and Blu-ray optical components.

“The removal of the negative margin will be when all of these factors have come out. Maybe, marginally, we could achieve this during this year,” Oneda told a Citigroup Securities analyst during a Q&A session. Oneda still couldn’t specify exactly when this break-even point may happen.

“For the negative margin to go away, the big trigger would be the cost-down in the Cell and RSX semiconductors. They are the key, and also optical pick-up is another factor, significantly,” he said.

Oneda confirmed that Sony is working on transitioning the PS3’s chips from 90nm to 65nm, which would reduce costs significantly. He said the Cell would be the first PS3 chip to make the migration, followed by the RSX chip.

Game console makers typically sell hardware at a loss, and make up for this through software sales. Nintendo, however, has made it a point to sell its hardware at a profit.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6573&Itemid=2

EDIT: January 15, 2008

Sony Halves PS3 Costs
Japanese giant finally looks set to make a profit on hardware sales.

UK, January 15, 2008 - Sony has managed to bring production costs of the PS3 down to around $400, a near halving of the initial $800 it took to manufacture the machine upon its launch at the end of 2006.

The drop, as reported by *****, can likely be attributed to a continuing simplification of the PS3 components and features. With both the 20GB and 60GB models being phased out, and with more readily available Blu-ray technology and the loss of backwards compatibility on the now-standard 40GB model, Sony can finally look to make a profit on each console sold.

Whether this will filter down into a cut of the retail price is unlikely in the near future, though after a rough 2007 it will at least put smiles back on the faces of Sony executives.
http://ps3.ign.com/articles/845/845541p1.html?RSSwhen2008-01-15_021800&RSSid=845541

Sony may move to 45 NM

Information provided through the ISSCC 2008 program are brief, but the document - which was posted earlier this month on the ISSCC website – offers some insight what we can expect to learn this year. Sony is apparently working on a 65 nm to 45 nm migration of its Cell Broadband Engine. Sony claims that the chip area size will be reduced by 34% and the 45 nm Cell will consume 40% less power than the 65 nm generation. The company also works on improving the design for manufacturability (DFM) for Cell to simplify the CPU production process.
http://www.tomshardware.co.uk/45nm-Cell-BE,news-27328.html
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
I don't know about you guys but discussions are better when opinions are given in this format:

Answer

Reason
 

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
You would be right if the price of manufacturing th 360 components magically starts going up. Otherwise, train A left the station one hour before train B. Both are traveling at the same speed to the same destination...
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
WarLox said:
as the cost of the ps3 goes down... the 360 will stay the same... is that what you're saying ??
Mass production is the production of large amounts of standardised products on production lines. It was popularised by Henry Ford in the early 20th Century, notably in his Ford Model T. Mass production is notable because it permits very high rates of production per person and therefore provides very inexpensive products.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_production
 
While it'll drop fast, the 360 will get cheaper to make too. They're both switching to 65nm sometime soonish, at any rate. The only way they'll ever intersect is if the 360 somehow completely implodes and the PS3 sees PS2 levels of mass production.
 

Odysseus

Banned
Stinkles said:
You would be right if the price of manufacturing th 360 components magically starts going up. Otherwise, train A left the station one hour before train B. Both are traveling at the same speed to the same destination...

Will train A still be there when train B arrives?

:worried
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Stinkles said:
You would be right if the price of manufacturing th 360 components magically starts going up. Otherwise, train A left the station one hour before train B. Both are traveling at the same speed to the same destination...

You assume they travel at the same speed. I am stating the fact that PS3 parts will be mass produced by many electronic manufactores lowering their cost to make. 360 does not have the same situation.


If train B travels faster they might just get there at the same time.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
The Faceless Master said:
never as long as the PS3 always comes with a HDD and Blue Laser Diode standard and the 360 doesn't...

I was talking about the 360 P sorry the core was not accounted for. I think I can prove that Blu-Ray drive can in theory reach the same price as a DVD drive but it would take too much research =(
 
TheProfessor said:
I was talking about the 360 P sorry the core was not accounted for. I think I can prove that Blu-Ray drive can in theory reach the same price as a DVD drive but it would take too much research =(
so, basically, you will continue to change the question until you get your desired outcome? ok.
 

Odysseus

Banned
TheProfessor said:
You assume they travel at the same time. I am stating the fact that PS3 parts will be mass produced by many electronic manufactores lowering their cost to make. 360 does not have the same situation.


If train B travels faster they might just get there at the same time.


Which train will first make it to 88 MPH?
 

White Man

Member
TheProfessor said:
You assume they travel at the same time. I am stating the fact that PS3 parts will be mass produced by many electronic manufactores lowering their cost to make. 360 does not have the same situation.


If train B travels faster they might just get there at the same time.

But, uh, the same thing can be said of the 360.
 

Rhindle

Member
If your question was, when will it cost less than twice as much as the 360 to manufacture, that might be worth discussing ...
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
White Man said:
But, uh, the same thing can be said of the 360.
Do you agree or disagree that the price of the PS3 will drop faster?

Would the price of blu-ray drives drop faster than DVD drives? Would the 360 CPU price drop faster than the Cell?
 
Wasn't TheProfessor banned for trolling within a week or so of creating that account? I don't remember who he was hating on, but I have an idea.
 

White Man

Member
TheProfessor said:
Do you agree or disagree that the price of the PS3 will drop faster?

Would the price of blu-ray drives drop faster than DVD drives? Would the 360 CPU price drop faster than the Cell?

Why would PS3 parts drop significantly faster, exactly? You're assuming that the parts the 360 are made of won't be dropping. Or something.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
The Faceless Master said:
so, basically, you will continue to change the question until you get your desired outcome? ok.

How is that changing the question? Did you honestly think I had the core in mind ? Nothing has changed just clarified for those who are not sure they understand the main point.
 

WarLox

Member
TheProfessor said:
Do you agree or disagree that the price of the PS3 will drop faster?

Would the price of blu-ray drives drop faster than DVD drives? Would the 360 CPU price drop faster than the Cell?


but is the dvd drive one of the more expensive components of the 360?
 

White Man

Member
Is he implying that the 360 is not mass produced? What, are little kids in Southeast Asia making the components by hand and spackling them together?
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
maybe he's saying since there are more components in the PS3 that are not mass produced as the Xbox360, it has more price to drop off at a faster rate than the 360 might have in the same amount of time because those items are already in more mass production at the current time

or something.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
AdmiralViscen said:
Wasn't TheProfessor banned for trolling within a week or so of creating that account? I don't remember who he was hating on, but I have an idea.
??? What. Only time I ever got banned was for implying
FF3 might not reach 1million
 

WarLox

Member
White Man said:
Is he implying that the 360 is not mass produced? What, are little kids in Southeast Asia making the components by hand and spackling them together?

he basically wants reassurance of a price drop for the PS3, to justify his recent 360 purchase..

I think
 

BorkBork

The Legend of BorkBork: BorkBorkity Borking
TheProfessor said:
Do you agree or disagree that the price of the PS3 will drop faster?

It may, but it won't matter since it also has to overcome > $200 dollar difference in manufacturing costs. (Sony is losing more money per console than Microsoft at this point)

So the answer to "How long before PS3 manufacturing cost matches 360's?" is never, as long as the console prices are relevant.
 

White Man

Member
davepoobond said:
maybe he's saying since there are more components in the PS3 that are not mass produced as the Xbox360, it has more price to drop off at a faster rate than the 360 might have in the same amount of time because those items are already in more mass production at the current time

or something.

Even taking that into account, it's not really a rational reason to believe that the PS3's manufacturing cost can catch up to the 360's manufacturing price. Sure, some of the pricier PS3 components getting rapidly cheaper might initially make their fab cost drop quickly, but it's not like the 360 parts market will stay stagnant in price as the PS3 components' prices fall.
 
White Man said:
Why would PS3 parts drop significantly faster, exactly? You're assuming that the parts the 360 are made of won't be dropping. Or something.

He's saying that the parts that make the PS3 more expensive than the 360 right now will drop faster than the main components of the machine (both machines), causing both consoles to reach a certain manufacturing price point at the same time. By his reasoning, the PS3's price reduction would then match pace with the 360's, not exceed it.

So, the main components of both machines are assumed to be the same price, and falling at the same rate, while the $200 of bonus shit in the PS3 is assumed to drop in price more quickly than the rest, causing an equalization of the two console's build prices.

yea.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
AdmiralViscen said:
He's saying that the parts that make the PS3 more expensive than the 360 right now will drop faster than the main components of the machine (both machines), causing both consoles to reach a certain manufacturing price point at the same time. By his reasoning, the PS3's price reduction would then match pace with the 360's, not exceed it.

So, the main components of both machines are assumed to be the same price, and falling at the same rate, while the $200 of bonus shit in the PS3 is assumed to drop in price more quickly than the rest, causing an equalization of the two console's build prices.

yea.


. /my clarification
 

GhaleonEB

Member
TheProfessor said:
You assume they travel at the same time. I am stating the fact that PS3 parts will be mass produced by many electronic manufactores lowering their cost to make. 360 does not have the same situation.


If train B travels faster they might just get there at the same time.
Really? Because the 360 chips move to a different supplier at 65nm in a few months, which will have a dramatic impact on cost.

Edit: ah. I see. Revised answer: Never.
 

JCBossman

Banned
Condundrum:
A RED speedboat painted BLUE is going up the River at 60 MPH.
A BLUE speedboat painted RED is going Down the river at 60 MPH.
Question: How many Waffles does it take to shingle a Dog House?
.
.
.
.
ANSWER: None!
Clarification: Because Pigs don't fly!
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
BorkBork said:
It may, but it won't matter since it also has to overcome a $200 dollar difference in price.

So the answer to "How long before PS3 manufacturing cost matches 360's?" is never, as long as the console prices are relevant.

I predict PS3 core will eliminate the manufacturing cost difference between the 360 in 2 years.

$100 retail price to overcome. But anyway this has nothing to do with retail and more to do with manufactoring cost.
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
JCBossman said:
Condundrum:
A RED speedboat painted BLUE is going up the River at 60 MPH.
A BLUE speedboat painted RED is going Down the river at 60 MPH.
Question: How many Waffles does it take to shingle a Dog House?
.
.
.
.
ANSWER: None!
Clarification: Because Pigs don't fly!
Well depends if these are magical waffles and if they have many cooking mamas making them.
 

Pimpbaa

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Really? Because the 360 chips move to a different supplier at 65nm in a few months, which will have a dramatic impact on cost.

It's just the CPU that's going to 65nm next year right? I wonder if they will make a new power brick (as in smaller) when both the CPU and GPU are 65nm.
 

Drek

Member
For all the rampant dismissal going on in this thread, it actually holds a valid point.

I doubt the PS3 will reach a production cost equal to or less than the 360, but the 360 makes the most of what at the time was the peak in established hardware, powerPC cpu and a DVD drive. The modern DVD drive has been in mass production long enough that any manufacturing cost reductions will be minimal. PowerPC is also has also seen its peak days come and go, with the X360 being its last major use. While I'm sure it can still be streamlined and refined (especially a 3 core setup a la the 360's) its still a long ways towards tapping out its manufacturing efficiency.

The PS3 meanwhile is using largely new technology, Blu-Ray and Cell both have a lot more work that can be done to refine the designs and reduce costs. It won't catch the 360's older, established hardware but it could shorten the gap fairly quickly assuming the PS3's components see mass market applications.

Of course thats the crux of it though, like all things in Sony's PS3 plan, it hinges on various new technologies becoming viable. Cell needs to succeed or they're paying double the money for only marginally better CPU power than the 360, Blu-Ray needs to succeed or the media player selling point of the PS3 is very marginalized, etc. etc.. I'm not a powerful corporate executive but I don't see the viability in playing the equivalent of technological Jenga with the biggest, most expensive new piece of hardware my company has every invested in.
 
Drek said:
For all the rampant dismissal going on in this thread, it actually holds a valid point.

I doubt the PS3 will reach a production cost equal to or less than the 360, but the 360 makes the most of what at the time was the peak in established hardware, powerPC cpu and a DVD drive. The modern DVD drive has been in mass production long enough that any manufacturing cost reductions will be minimal. PowerPC is also has also seen its peak days come and go, with the X360 being its last major use. While I'm sure it can still be streamlined and refined (especially a 3 core setup a la the 360's) its still a long ways towards tapping out its manufacturing efficiency.

The PS3 meanwhile is using largely new technology, Blu-Ray and Cell both have a lot more work that can be done to refine the designs and reduce costs. It won't catch the 360's older, established hardware but it could shorten the gap fairly quickly assuming the PS3's components see mass market applications.

Of course thats the crux of it though, like all things in Sony's PS3 plan, it hinges on various new technologies becoming viable. Cell needs to succeed or they're paying double the money for only marginally better CPU power than the 360, Blu-Ray needs to succeed or the media player selling point of the PS3 is very marginalized, etc. etc.. I'm not a powerful corporate executive but I don't see the viability in playing the equivalent of technological Jenga with the biggest, most expensive new piece of hardware my company has every invested in.
I'[m not sure, CD players seem still much cheaper then dvd players. dvd players can still drop a decent amount, while it'll take 4-5 years for blu-ray to come close to dvd prices now.
 

clashfan

Member
TheProfessor said:
Do you agree or disagree that the price of the PS3 will drop faster?

Would the price of blu-ray drives drop faster than DVD drives? Would the 360 CPU price drop faster than the Cell?

So you really aren't asking a question, you are just fishing for replies that would agree with you?
 

PistolGrip

sex vacation in Guam
Scottlarock said:
I'[m not sure, CD players seem still much cheaper then dvd players. dvd players can still drop a decent amount, while it'll take 4-5 years for blu-ray to come close to dvd prices now.
DVD:
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_g...rl=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=dvd+player

CD:
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_ss_g...url=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=cd+player

Both Cell and the CPU on the 360 are of the Power PC family. Both are custom CPUs. At the moment CELL seems like it will be mass produced for a much wider set of products. From Sony to IBM to Toshiba and other license manufactures. Blue Diodes are the same story (used by both HDDVD and Blu-Ray).
 
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