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Lazard: March Sales Flat On Short Nintendo Supply

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FrankT

Member
In his latest note to investors, Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian expects flat sales in NPD's March software sales results, with strong sales of God of War II, GRAW 2 and Guitar Hero II offset by short Wii and DS supplies.

"On a year-over-year basis," said Sebastian, "our 'back-of-the-envelope' analysis suggests console and handheld software sales may be flat in March, with incremental sales of next-generation products largely offset by declining older generation products and short supplies of Nintendo’s Wii and DS platforms."

Sebastian expects Sony, Activision, and Electronic Arts will be top performers for the month, with software sales will be driven by God of War II, GRAW 2, Guitar Hero II and Def Jam Icon amongst others.

Looking specifically at Activision, Sebastian says a solid monthly performance up 20 percent will be carried mostly on catalog sales (primarily the PS2's Guitar Hero II and continuing sales of Call of Duty 3), with the Xbox 360 release of Guitar Hero II having launched on April 3rd.

"At this point," said Sebastian, "we expect 4Q (March) results to be in line with or slightly ahead of our recently raised revenue and EPS estimates. We also continue to expect a robust lineup of new Activision titles in F2008, including sequels to key movie-based franchises Spider-Man and Shrek, as well as core franchises Tony Hawk and Call of Duty, and new licensed titles Transformers and Bee Movie."

Turning to Electronic Arts, Lazard expects sell-through to be down 20 percent, despite recent next-gen releases of Def Jam Icon, Tiger Woods and Godfather, and that EA might have two to three of the top 10 Wii titles for the month as EA turns more heavily toward Nintendo's latest console.

Said Sebastian, "We also note our retail checks indicate PC titles Command & Conquer 3 and The Sims Seasons are selling well, which is not reflected in our console sales estimates. We expect in-line 4Q (March) results with the potential for conservative initial F2008 guidance. However, we continue to believe a strengthening product lineup in F2008 should lead to a year of solid growth and margin expansion for Electronic Arts."

Finally, looking at THQ, Sebastian says sales will be down just slightly over 2006 with few console releases across the month of March. The publisher's Supreme Commander has done quite well, according to Lazard's retail checks, though its post-apocalyptic FPS STALKER, says the analyst, "does not appear to be a top PC title."

"We expect solid 4Q results for THQ with the potential for upside to our estimates," said Sebastian. "Following a very strong 2006, we expect another year of solid growth in 2007, including new titles Frontlines Fuel of War and Ratatouille, as well as sequels to franchises WWE Smackdown, Juiced, Stuntman, Cars and Nickelodeon titles."
Click to expand...

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=13457

So, I assume GH II's first week will be included or part of that first week.
 
I can believe Wii sales have been cut by tight supply. DS, on the other hand, seems to be available according to my own completely unscientific and unrepresentative channel checks.
 
The Sphinx said:
I can believe Wii sales have been cut by tight supply. DS, on the other hand, seems to be available according to my own completely unscientific and unrepresentative channel checks.
Click to expand...

According to my completely unscientific and unrepresentative channel checks, the DS can be found if you look for it, but it's been sold out at the Wal Marts in my area (Phoenix) for weeks.

As for this analyst's statement, it depends on what he means exactly by "flat." A lot of people are taking it to mean "deflated" but flat sales often refer to it not being different, so who knows.
 
I'm going to go ahead and predict the top 10:

1000k GOW 2
600k GRAW 2
300k Crackdown
300k Wii Play
250k Motorstorm
200k GH 2
100k Sonic
100k SSX
100k Gears
100k Lost Planet
 
I expect the 360 and PS3 to be about level in March. PS3 had Motorstorm and 360 had... nothing. So on that basis, I expect 360 to be lower than February, and PS3 higher, so they may meet somewhere in the middle.
 
Flat would refer to "same as..." sales. We all know that the Wii isnt on store shelves.


So, this news would mean that April is going to be a ****ing huge month for Nintendo, correct?
 
pswii60 said:
I expect the 360 and PS3 to be about level in March. PS3 had Motorstorm and 360 had... nothing. So on that basis, I expect 360 to be lower than February, and PS3 higher, so they may meet somewhere in the middle.
Click to expand...

By nothing you mean, games actually listed in the article's opening paragraph?
 
Lame. No mention of "blue ocean," "March excitement," or "IPTV."

This guy knows nothing.
 
pswii60 said:
I expect the 360 and PS3 to be about level in March. PS3 had Motorstorm and 360 had... nothing. So on that basis, I expect 360 to be lower than February, and PS3 higher, so they may meet somewhere in the middle.
Click to expand...

Well, I can guarantee Graw 2 sales more than Motorstorm, and GH II might just give it a run for it's money in the one week that it was probably included in NPD. So, your logic fails on all accounts. Logically, in all reality, one has to wonder why Lazard didn't even mention it while indicating GH II as a top performer for it's short period. So, Motorstorm as a big pusher for March, eh, maybe not so much.
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
By nothing you mean, games actually listed in the article's opening paragraph?
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Shh, don't help him, expectations like that will make the NPD thread that much more legendary. :lol

I don't think it's a stretch to to say that Ghost Recon, Crackdown, and Guitar Hero handily outsold Motorstorm and Oblivion.
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
There's no way one week of GHII could outsell weeks of Motorstorm AND Oblivion is there?
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It will outsell Oblivion, and like I said earlier it could give Motorstorm a real run for it's money. I mean Lazard menionted this as a top performer while saying nothing of either of those so time will tell. Remember though Oblivion came pretty late in the month as well IIRC.
 
beermonkey@tehbias said:
Arne predicted 360 to outsell Wii. Why am I thinking that he knew something already.
Click to expand...


Ahhhhh, that's not drama. The bigger Gafplosion would occur if the Wii supply was so hampered, it was outsold by the PS3. Glimmer of hope SDF, glimmer of hope :D
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
There's no way one week of GHII could outsell weeks of Motorstorm AND Oblivion is there?
Click to expand...

Most likely not but we'll see.

MotorStorm's a new IP so I don't think an analyst would make any definitive prediction on its sales performance.
 
BenjaminBirdie said:
There's no way one week of GHII could outsell weeks of Motorstorm AND Oblivion is there?
Click to expand...

I definitely wouldn't be surprised if it happened, though.
 
Motorstorm has to crack 100k. There are a million PS3 owners, and I think 10% of them would pick up the biggest game coming from Sony for a while.

If it doesn't crack 100k, I'd be freaking worried if I was a publisher.
 
It's still amazing I can't find a Wii in stores in Canada. I gave up my attitude of HD graphics over everything else, and I still can't find one :(

Props to the few people who predicted this outcome :lol
 
pswii60 said:
PS3 had Motorstorm and 360 had... nothing.
Click to expand...

The 360 had everything past the first several days of Crackdown sales, and likely seven days of GH2 sales (which leaderboards suggest topped 200K in the first three days).
 
besada said:
The 360 had everything past the first several days of Crackdown sales, and likely seven days of GH2 sales (which leaderboards suggest topped 200K in the first three days).
Click to expand...

Not to mention more than half of new 360 owners will likely pick up Gears of War.
 
pswii60 said:
I expect the 360 and PS3 to be about level in March. PS3 had Motorstorm and 360 had... nothing. So on that basis, I expect 360 to be lower than February, and PS3 higher, so they may meet somewhere in the middle.
Click to expand...

I don't think a title like Motorstorm moves systems that much as to shake the hardware charts up like that. Ditto for Crackdown and the 360.

squatingyeti said:
Ahhhhh, that's not drama. The bigger Gafplosion would occur if the Wii supply was so hampered, it was outsold by the PS3. Glimmer of hope SDF, glimmer of hope :D
Click to expand...

I'm not expecting Wii to get outsold by either, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if Arne had found out that Nintendo supply had been even shorter than expected.
 
moku said:
Flat would refer to "same as..." sales. We all know that the Wii isnt on store shelves.


So, this news would mean that April is going to be a ****ing huge month for Nintendo, correct?
Click to expand...
flat was referring to last years sales, rather than february.
 
I may be blind but to me it seems the article does not clarify which version of Guitar Hero II he is talking about.
 
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