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Official Feb. 12th Primary Thread (Obama/McCain Beltway SWEEP SWEEP)

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R

Rur0ni

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The Schedule:

feb12list.png


District of Columbia

* Polls open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM
* Open to all registered Democrats

Maryland

* Polls open from to 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM
* Open to all registered Democrats

Virginia

* Polls open from to 6:00 AM to 7:00 PM
* Open Primary - All registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents can participate

*****************************************************************

The Contenders:

Clinton

clintonprofile.jpg


Obama

obamaprofile.jpg


McCain

mccainprofile.jpg


Huckabee

huckabeeprofile.jpg


Paul

paulprofile.jpg


Gravel

gravelprofile.jpg


*************************

The States:

Virginia [Primaries]

virginia1.jpg


Delegates at Stake
Democrats: 83
Republicans: 63

Latest Polling
SurveyUSA 2/8/08
Democrats:
59% Obama
39% Clinton
01% Undecided
01% Other

Republicans:
57% McCain
25% Huckabee
09% Paul
07% Other
03% Undecided

InsiderAdvantage 2/8/08
52% Obama
37% Clinton

Rasmussen 2/9/08
55% Obama
37% Clinton

Mason-Dixon 2/10/08
Democrats:
53% Obama
37% Clinton

Republicans:
55% McCain
27% Huckabee
05% Paul

SurveyUSA 2/11/08
Democrats:
60% Obama
38% Clinton
02% Other
01% Undecided

Republicans:
48% McCain
37% Huckabee
07% Paul
06% Other
02% Undecided

Registered Voters
4,585,828 total registered voters (No registration by party)

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
7.3 Million

5.3 Million White
1.4 Million Black
440,000 Hispanic/Latino
340,000 Asian
170,000 Other
140,000 Mixed

430,000 Virginia Beach

Education
2.6 Million with Beyond High School Education (25 and Over Population)

*************

Maryland [Primaries]

maryland-delaware1.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 70
Republicans: 37

Latest Polling
SurveyUSA 2/8/08
Democrats:
52% Obama
33% Clinton
07% Undecided
06% Uncommitted
02% Other

Republicans:
56% McCain
17% Huckabee
12% Other
10% Paul (Ouch at being below 'Other')
04% Undecided

Rasmussen 2/9/08
57% Obama
31% Clinton

Registered Voters
3,110,117 total registered voters -- 55% Democratic, 28% Republican, 17% Other

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
5.5 Million

3.4 Million White
1.5 Mllion Black
320,000 Hispanic/Latino
260,000 Asian
170,000 Other
90,000 Mixed

650,000 Baltimore

Education
2 Million with Beyond High School Education (25 and Over Population)

*************

Washington D.C. [Primaries]

dc.jpg


Delegates At Stake
Democrats: 15
Republicans: 19

Registered Voters
371,199 total registered voters -- 74% Democratic, 8% Republican, 18% Other

Population 2005 American Community Survey Data Rounded Figures
515,000

290,000 Black
165,000 White
45,000 Hispanic
30,000 Other
15,000 Asian
8,000 Mixed

Education
220,000 with Beyond High School Education (25 and Over Population)

*************

Notes:
Any errors, just post and I'll fix. Any polling data found, I'll add it. Suggestions? Post em.

*************

Final Result Update 2/16/08:

Democrats:

District of Columbia:
Obama 75% 85,534
Clinton 24% 27,326
98% Reporting
+51 spread

Maryland:
Obama 60% 464,474
Clinton 37% 285,440
97% Reporting
+23 spread

Virginia:
Obama 64% 623,141
Clinton 35% 347,252
99% Reporting
+29 spread


Thoughts

Bombdroppen? Clinton was crushed in Virginia where she campaigned. Obama won the Latino vote, White vote, fairy vote, just about every vote except the white lady vote, and lost that by a small margin. DC, complete destruction. I did expect better of Maryland though, compared to Virginia. Lefty redeemed.

Republicans

District of Columbia:
McCain 68% 3,929
Huckabee 17% 961
Paul 08% 471
Romney 06% 350
98% Reporting

Maryland:
McCain 55% 163,677
Huckabee 29% 86,573
Romney 07% 18,728
Paul 06% 17,865
97% Reporting

Virginia:
McCain 50% 244,135
Huckabee 41% 198,247
Paul 04% 22,066
Romney 04% 17,532
99% Reporting

Thoughts

McCain has it wrapped up.

Other Thoughts

Obama got more votes than the Republican side combined. Virginia becomes Blue state in general?
 
Hoping/expecting another Obamaton day on Tuesday; so far it's looking to be another clean sweep for Mega-Jesus.
 
The Lamonster said:
Looks like another sweep for the underdog.
Click to expand...
At this rate, he won't be able to keep that title :lol

Killthee said:
Great job with these thread Rur0ni (unlike some other people
CoolTrick
; P), keep up the good work.
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<3 *blushes*

Edit:
grandjedi6 said:
We should get the Democrats Abroad data on Tuesday also. Much fun to be had
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Ah yes! I'll add them. How many delegates are we talking?
 
Caught a tiny bit of what I assume was Obama's victory speech (didn't see the results until ~11PM), where he was talking about how the narrow focus on swing voters in swing states made it hard to build majorities.

It's like he was directly lobbying for Hito's vote.
 
Mandark said:
Caught a tiny bit of what I assume was Obama's victory speech (didn't see the results until ~11PM), where he was talking about how the narrow focus on swing voters in swing states made it hard to build majorities.

It's like he was directly lobbying for Hito's vote.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking it was his de facto victory speech- he was at some function in VA at the time.
 
Given the margins Obama has polled at, and the sweep this weekend, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 20-30 point blowout in all three territories. Which would be okay with me.

I mean, he just won by 19 points in Maine.
 
They say that Hillary doesn't care about the rest of the February primaries and she's focusing on the ones in March. I hope that works out for her like Guiliani's Florida strategy did for him.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Given the margins Obama has polled at, and the sweep this weekend, I wouldn't be too surprised to see a 20-30 point blowout in all three territories. Which would be okay with me.

I mean, he just won by 19 points in Maine.
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Well, as long as people in the Beltway states don't get lazy or complacent. When your enemy is down, you finish them thoroughly. No villian victory explanation speeches!
 
My prediction:

He's going to sweep Tuesday and the press is going to downplay it and keep talking about March 4th.
 
Cooter said:
My prediction:

He's going to sweep Tuesday and the press is going to downplay it and keep talking about March 4th.
Click to expand...
Good. The longer they don't act like he's the frontrunner or has crazy momentum, the better for his campaign. Gore should hold off his endorsement until like 3 or 4 days before the March 4th primaries.
 
Rur0ni said:
Well, as long as people in the Beltway states don't get lazy or complacent. When your enemy is down, you finish them thoroughly. No villian victory explanation speeches!
Click to expand...
It's way to early for that. Right now she's just reeling a bit, it's time to land a whole lotta punches.
Hootie said:
Can we? Yes!
Click to expand...
We? Can yes!
 
One thing that was mentioned in the earlier thread...

This is Clinton's first and last chance as president. She's been plotting this for a while now. A youngster comes in and is sweeping her feet from under her. The question, will she take it all the way to the end? Do some sort of voodoo at the convention that we don't understand?
 
Rur0ni said:
One thing that was mentioned in the earlier thread...

This is Clinton's first and last chance as president. She's been plotting this for a while now. A youngster comes in and is sweeping her feet from under her. The question, will she take it all the way to the end? Do some sort of voodoo at the convention that we don't understand?
Click to expand...
Our best option is to destroy her in February by such a decisive margin that she pulls a Rudy on March 4. If Texas and Ohio abandon her, what can she say then?
 
Zeed said:
Our best option is to destroy her in February by such a decisive margin that she pulls a Rudy on March 4. If Texas and Ohio abandon her, what can she say then?
Click to expand...
The only thing she could do then is force it to be dragged out to the convention in August and try to wrangle as many super delegates as possible. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen. It's her one shot, and I somehow don't see her putting the interests of the party ahead of her own. At any rate, this weekend has made me a lot more hopeful that she won't even have the super delegates to fall back on, as Obama looks like he could rack up wins by big enough margins to win plenty of his own.
 
B.K. said:
They say that Hillary doesn't care about the rest of the February primaries and she's focusing on the ones in March. I hope that works out for her like Guiliani's Florida strategy did for him.
Click to expand...


same here.
 
GOBAMA!

CNN still downplaying the weekend in their coverage, in subtle little wordplays... but that's just one little corner, papers across the nation: OBAMA NATION DOMINATION!

Tuesday looks so good. So good!

Quick little discussion of alternative outcome: If Hillary manages to carry Virginia, that'd be the story of the month and I don't think anything would kill that.

But 90% chance of not happening. So go Obama!
 
It seems to me Hillary has to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by large margins (10% will probably not be enough) to get ahead in pledged delegates. She won't have much luck elsewhere. Puerto Rico apparently has an usual delegate allocation method, which allows the winner to potentially get most of them. Obama could very well win there, despite the significant hispanic population. She desperately needs FL/MI delegates to win.

Ohio 141
Rhode Island 21
Texas 193
Vermont 15
Wyoming 12
Mississippi 33
Pennsylvania 158
Guam 4
Indiana 72
North Carolina 115
West Virginia 28
Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
Montana 16
South Dakota 15
Puerto Rico 55
Click to expand...
 
Amir0x said:
GOBAMA!

CNN still downplaying the weekend in their coverage, in subtle little wordplays... but that's just one little corner, papers across the nation: OBAMA NATION DOMINATION!

Tuesday looks so good. So good!

Quick little discussion of alternative outcome: If Hillary manages to carry Virginia, that'd be the story of the month and I don't think anything would kill that.

But 90% chance of not happening. So go Obama!
Click to expand...
I reckon they'll downplay the fact is Obama is owning her, and if she wins Virginia, major upset. But, I'm willing to bet money that she won't win it. The odds are against her, polling shows a 20+ spread. I don't think the polls can be wrong by 20. (SurveyUSA, apparently the most accurate, shows a 20+ spread, InsiderAdvantage correctly predicted the Huckasurge, and have Obama up 17%). I'm hoping for similiar crushing victories here. 20+ bombs.

syllogism said:
It seems to me Hillary has to win Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania by large margins (10% will probably not be enough) to get ahead in pledged delegates. She won't have much luck elsewhere. Puerto Rico apparently has an usual delegate allocation method, which allows the winner to potentially get most of them. Obama could very well win there, despite the significant hispanic population. She desperately needs FL/MI delegates to win.
Click to expand...
From what I'm seeing now, there is no chance in hell those delegates will be seated, considering she was the only one on the MI ballot (Obama could probably beat her there now), and FL as well did not follow the rules.

She needs to win Ohio/Texas by comfortable margins. Blowout margins. Obama will not be blown out in either. Penn, not sure about, I was hoping we'd be done before that came... considering it's in fucking April, and the ONLY primary in April.

Edit:
numble said:
New? Hillary youth vote video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IA8Wy51Ionk
Click to expand...
... no wonder she's having money troubles, spending it on trash like this.
 
Rur0ni said:
I reckon they'll downplay the fact is Obama is owning her, and if she wins Virginia, major upset. But, I'm willing to bet money that she won't win it. The odds are against her, polling shows a 20+ spread. I don't think the polls can be wrong by 20. (SurveyUSA, apparently the most accurate, shows a 20+ spread, InsiderAdvantage correctly predicted the Huckasurge, and have Obama up 17%). I'm hoping for similiar crushing victories here. 20+ bombs.
Click to expand...
Insider Advantage showing as well is good. Next to SUSA InsiderAdvantage was the closest to the results on super tuesday.
 
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