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(Hardware) May 2008 NPD Predictions - Will GTAIV cause bumps in May? Wii Fit bump?

D

donny2112

Member
Microsoft said it had a ~50% increase and GameStop said ~100% increase on both systems in weekly sales in April with GTAIV's release. Will a more noticable bump happen for 360/PS3 in May?
For Wii Fit, can the Wii even show software induced bumps, yet?


Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EST on Friday, June 6th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 4 - May 31 (4 weeks, same as April)
NPD Release: June 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)


Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS2]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS2] 123K        [PS2] 123.5K
[PS2] 123,000     [PS2] 123.000
[PS2] 123456      [PS2] - 123000


Potential hardware impacting releases in May:

Wii Fit (5/19)
New DS color, Metallic Rose (5/27)

and carry over from GTAIV releasing in the last week of April's NPD period.


April's Results - thanks to NPD and sonycowboy

sonycowboy said:
Code: 
Hardware
PlayStation 2	124.4K
PlayStation 3	187.1K
PSP	        192.7K
Xbox 360	       188.0K
Wii	      714.2K
Nintendo DS	414.8K
	
Top 10 VG Titles - April'08	
	Units*
360 GTA IV	1.85mm
Wii Mario Kart w/ wheel	1.12mm
PS3 GTA IV	1.00mm
Wii Play	360K
Wii Super Smash Bros. Brawl	326K
PS3 Gran Turismo 5:  Prologue	224K
DS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Darkness	202K
DS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon:  Explorers of Time	202K
Wii Guitar Hero III	152K
360 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare	141K
	
*includes bundles, collector's editions, GOTY editions
Click to expand...


April Prediction Results: Units / Points
 
[360] 200K
[NDS] 355K
[PS2] 150K
[PS3] 200K
[PSP] 155K
[WII] 900K


Edit: so I thought about my numbers for the HD consoles... no need for them to be so high, brought those and my PS2 estimates down a bit...
 
[360] 265k
[NDS] 415k
[PS2] 150k
[PS3] 260k
[PSP] 300k
[WII] 775k

I believe the Wii will sell every unit shipped again, with a slight increase in supply for Wii Fit.

PS3 and Xbox360 will be neck and neck for scraps per the usual.
 
[360] 230k
[NDS] 400k
[PS2] 100k
[PS3] 250k
[PSP] 180k
[Wii] 800k

I'm predicting a slight downturn in Wii sales: perhaps I'll get burned like everyone else who has claimed as such before me, but I think this will be the month where demand normalizes with supply, and there will no longer be excess built up demand pushing numbers beyond what they normally would be. 600k is still very high -- it's just not a combination of people who wanted them this month and the people who wanted them in January but couldn't find them. Which was the case in March and April, I believe. We'll see.
 
Opiate said:
I'm predicting a slight downturn in Wii sales: perhaps I'll get burned like everyone else, but I think this will be the month where demand normalizes with supply, and there will no longer be excess built up demand pushing numbers beyond what they normally would be. 600k is still very high -- it's just not a combination of people who wanted them this month and the people who wanted them in January but couldn't find them. Which was the case in March and April, I believe.
Click to expand...
Even with Wii Fit?
 
Case said:
Even with Wii Fit?
Click to expand...

Yep. I think the average month would be 500k if there wasn't pent up demand; this month will be higher because of Wii Fit. Again, I'm the 10 millionth person to make such a bet, and the first 9.99 million lost that bet. So, we'll see: I'm certainly prepared to be wrong.
 
[360] 180k
[NDS] 440k
[PS2] 110k
[PS3] 165k
[PSP] 180k
[WII] 870k

Wii will destroy everything (I'm afraid I might be actually underestimating it, who the hell knows how much of a supply Nintendo had for Wii Fit launch). The official NPD thread is going to be one hell of a ride. :lol
 
It's funny analysts' are predicting a hardware bump for 360/PS3 due to GTA4 in May, just because it's GTA. They got to wake up and smell the fresh air, GTA isn't the system seller it use to be, since it's more of the same and that the bump (debump more like it) it has on the consoles would've happened the day it was launched.
 
[360] 200k
[NDS] 400k
[PS2] 100k
[PS3] 180k
[PSP] 200k
[WII] 999k

Nintendo had 1 million WiiFits for NA right? Something tells me they've been stocking up 1 million Wii's as well.

It's funny analysts' are predicting a hardware bump for 360/PS3 due to GTA4 in May, just because it's GTA. They got to wake up and smell the fresh air, GTA isn't the system seller it use to be, since it's more of the same and that the bump (debump more like it) it has on the consoles would've happened the day it was launched.
Click to expand...
I guess they think that people who have the game reccomend it to others who will buy a HD console. Kinda like the WiiSports situation.
 
maaan, i've lowballed the Wii a lot these past months. time to put some whack estimates!

[360] 205,000
[NDS] 435,000
[PS2] 130,000
[PS3] 215,000
[PSP] 233,000
[WII] 820,000

HD a bit above last month because of the GTA "bump" and Wii higher than last month because of expected increased shipments but 1 million is too much at this point in time so i went to the 800k levels.
DS a bit low because it goes low for no reason lately.
 
ComputerNerd said:
Eek at all the million predictions. A million in MAY?

MAY?


MILLION?


WTF?
Click to expand...
People are training their Wii Fit age so hard that they forgot their brain trainings? Also Common Sense Training is currently available in Japan only.

Seriously, the demand is there but what about supply? Nintendo is currently upping the production (they might already be producing 2 million+ Wiis per month) so game this big for them is sure to have every unit possible for sale in US. The advertisement budget for Wii Fit was huge so I strongly believe they've some extra Wii stock just for this.
 
[Wii] 900K
[DS] 425K
[PS3] 190K
[360] 190K
[PSP] 179K
[PS2] 112K

I'm probably gonna be screwed over again by the HD consoles this month, but fuck it. I think the best route is to assume the HD console sales aren't gonna see any signifigant push and there's no ceiling for Nintendo.
 
[360] 151K
[NDS] 500K
[PS2] 100K
[PS3] 149K
[PSP] 170K
[WII] 1000K

My first month doing this, though I've been lurking in NPD threads since back when GAF got leaked numbers.

PS2 - May finally be falling low enough that Sony needs to think about that magic $99 price point.

360 & PS3 - Imagine how low their sales would be with no GTA bump, simply shocking numbers most likely.

PSP - Steady as she goes.

NDS - What's that? A new colour? *Is crushed by stampede* Good for another 100K on last month.

Wii - It will sell what Nintendo ships. I think this month they will ship huge and then we'll be in for a couple of months of 400K while stocks recover
 
Count Dookkake said:
There is always another "Wait until..."
Click to expand...
I think this really is it barring price drops.

I'm predicting a slight downturn in Wii sales: perhaps I'll get burned like everyone else who has claimed as such before me, but I think this will be the month where demand normalizes with supply, and there will no longer be excess built up demand pushing numbers beyond what they normally would be. 600k is still very high -- it's just not a combination of people who wanted them this month and the people who wanted them in January but couldn't find them. Which was the case in March and April, I believe. We'll see.
Click to expand...

Nope, not the case at all. Wiis are taking longer to sell out, but they still sell out.every.single.shipment.

It could take a day or two but you'd be hard -pressed to find any retailers complaining about getting more Wii shipments.
 
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