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donny2112 · Feb 1, 2009

We're predicting for five games that I'm reasonably sure will be in the Top 10 with some leaning to what EEDAR predicts via the simExchange.

Games/Format:

[360 COD: World at War]
[360 Gears of War 2]
[WII GH: World Tour]
[WII Mario Kart]
[WII Wii Fit]
[Total SW $ in millions]

Code:

Good                        Bad
[WII Mario Kart] 200K       [WII Mario Kart] 200 thousand
[WII Mario Kart] 200,000    [WII Mario Kart] 200.000
[WII Mario Kart] 200000     [WII Mario Kart] - 200,000

The Hardware Prediction thread is here.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 8th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 4 - January 31 (4 weeks, December was 5 weeks)
NPD Release: February 12th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Code:

                              Nov 2008   Dec 2008

[360 COD: World at War]         1,410K     1,330K
[360 Gears of War 2]            1,560K       745K
[WII GH: World Tour]              475K       859K
[WII Mario Kart]                  637K       878K
[WII Wii Fit]                     697K       999K
[Total SW $ in millions]        1,450      2,750

Wii Fit U.S. Sales (source: Nintendo)

Note: Jan W1 = last week of December for NPD

Gomu Gomu · Feb 1, 2009

So there's a prediction thread for Hardware and another one for software ? :/

BishopLamont · Feb 1, 2009

Yes, it's always been this way.

Brakara · Feb 2, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 250k
[360 Gears of War 2] 175k
[WII GH: World Tour] 225k
[WII Mario Kart] 400k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

Flakster99 · Feb 2, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 205k
[360 Gears of War 2] 155k
[WII GH: World Tour] 310k
[WII Mario Kart] 390k
[WII Wii Fit] 595k
[Total SW $ in millions] 630

boontje · Feb 2, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 300k
[360 Gears of War 2] 200k
[WII GH: World Tour] 275k
[WII Mario Kart] 330k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] 660

WaltJay · Feb 2, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 225k
[360 Gears of War 2] 175k
[WII GH: World Tour] 200k
[WII Mario Kart] 275k
[WII Wii Fit] 550k
[Total SW $ in millions] 600

andy_lhc · Feb 3, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 215k
[360 Gears of War 2] 165k
[WII GH: World Tour] 295k
[WII Mario Kart] 390k
[WII Wii Fit] 595k
[Total SW $ in millions] 640

botticus · Feb 5, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 250k
[360 Gears of War 2] 150k
[WII GH: World Tour] 280k
[WII Mario Kart] 400k
[WII Wii Fit] 720k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

donny2112 · Feb 6, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 295K
[360 Gears of War 2] 150K
[WII GH: World Tour] 375K
[WII Mario Kart] 305K
[WII Wii Fit] 735K
[Total SW $ in millions] 625

Hammer24 · Feb 6, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 315K
[360 Gears of War 2] 175K
[WII GH: World Tour] 325K
[WII Mario Kart] 305K
[WII Wii Fit] 635K
[Total SW $ in millions] 675

Jesse2040 · Feb 6, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 300k
[360 Gears of War 2] 150k
[WII GH: World Tour] 164k
[WII Mario Kart] 275k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k
[Total SW $ in millions] 689

starship · Feb 7, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 280k
[360 Gears of War 2] 140k
[WII GH: World Tour] 200k
[WII Mario Kart] 580k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] 660

RBH · Feb 7, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 275k
[360 Gears of War 2] 200k
[WII GH: World Tour] 260k
[WII Mario Kart] 225k
[WII Wii Fit] 300k
[Total SW $ in millions] 600

Christine · Feb 7, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 230,000
[360 Gears of War 2] 180,000
[WII GH: World Tour] 310,000
[WII Mario Kart] 410,000
[WII Wii Fit] 580,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 680

My goal is to post a prediction in every monthly NPD this year.

billy.sea · Feb 7, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 230k
[360 Gears of War 2] 190k
[WII GH: World Tour] 140k
[WII Mario Kart] 320k
[WII Wii Fit] 600k

donny2112 · Feb 7, 2009

TwinIonEngines said:
My goal is to post a prediction in every monthly NPD this year.

Cool.

The M.O.B · Feb 7, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 300k
[360 Gears of War 2] 210k
[WII GH: World Tour] 350k
[WII Mario Kart] 300k
[WII Wii Fit] 695k
[Total SW $ in millions] 630

kefka2030 · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 195,000
[360 Gears of War 2] 155,000
[WII GH: World Tour] 178,000
[WII Mario Kart] 222,351
[WII Wii Fit] 264,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 522

apujanata · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 300K
[360 Gears of War 2] 170K
[WII GH: World Tour] 190K
[WII Mario Kart] 330K
[WII Wii Fit] 750K
[Total SW $ in millions] 680

Chumly · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 250K
[360 Gears of War 2] 160K
[WII GH: World Tour] 225K
[WII Mario Kart] 750K
[WII Wii Fit] 750K
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

rostocker · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 310k
[360 Gears of War 2] 170k
[WII GH: World Tour] 240k
[WII Mario Kart] 380k
[WII Wii Fit] 620k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

llonesmiz · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 290k
[360 Gears of War 2] 190k
[WII GH: World Tour] 200k
[WII Mario Kart] 350k
[WII Wii Fit] 700k
[Total SW $ in millions] 600

Frillen · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 360k
[360 Gears of War 2] 170k
[WII GH: World Tour] 220k
[WII Mario Kart] 280k
[WII Wii Fit] 520k
[Total SW $ in millions] 670

Randy Lanzarote · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 370k
[360 Gears of War 2] 170k
[WII GH: World Tour] 190k
[WII Mario Kart] 410k
[WII Wii Fit] 640k
[Total SW $ in millions] 700

May as well give SW a go

DayShallCome · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 450k
[360 Gears of War 2] 220k
[WII GH: World Tour] 310k
[WII Mario Kart] 240k
[WII Wii Fit] 310k
[Total SW $ in millions] 650

John Dunbar · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 260,000
[360 Gears of War 2] 145,000
[WII GH: World Tour] 330,000
[WII Mario Kart] 320,000
[WII Wii Fit] 720,000
[Total SW $ in millions] 625

Rawkus · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 310k
[360 Gears of War 2] 200k
[WII GH: World Tour] 270k
[WII Mario Kart] 450k
[WII Wii Fit] 650k
[Total SW $ in millions] 705

_Alkaline_ · Feb 8, 2009

[360 COD: World at War] 255K
[360 Gears of War 2] 195K
[WII GH: World Tour] 220K
[WII Mario Kart] 320K
[WII Wii Fit] 590K
[Total SW $ in millions] 610

donny2112 · Feb 12, 2009

GAF Average for Jan-09

WII Wii Fit - 607.5K
WII Mario Kart Wii - 359.9K
360 COD: World at War - 281.9K
WII GH: World Tour - 252.6K
360 Gears of War 2 - 173.5K

Total SW: $650 million (+6.4% over 2008)

apujanata · Feb 13, 2009

apujanata said:
[360 COD: World at War] 300K - 65K off
[360 Gears of War 2] 170K - Unknown #
[WII GH: World Tour] 190K - 35K off
[WII Mario Kart] 330K -38K off
[WII Wii Fit] 750K - 27K off
[Total SW $ in millions] 680 - almost spot on

I should be doing ok this month.

apujanata · Feb 18, 2009

donny2112,
did you calculate the result yet ? You can use 113K (#10 number) as GoW2 #, if you don't want / couldn't find a better #.

donny2112 · Feb 18, 2009

apujanata said:
donny2112,
did you calculate the result yet ? You can use 113K (#10 number) as GoW2 #, if you don't want / couldn't find a better #.

If we can't get a number for Gears 2, then I'll just do 25 points / game for the other four vs. 20 points / game and not include Gears 2. I'd like to give it a little more time (it hasn't been 1 week since NPD release) to see if its sales will get posted anywhere, though.

apujanata · Mar 4, 2009

donny2112 said:
If we can't get a number for Gears 2, then I'll just do 25 points / game for the other four vs. 20 points / game and not include Gears 2. I'd like to give it a little more time (it hasn't been 1 week since NPD release) to see if its sales will get posted anywhere, though.

Have you decided anything yet ?

donny2112 · Mar 5, 2009

Sorry for taking so long. I guess no one wanted to ask NPD about Gears 2.

I excluded Gears 2 from the calculations, and made each game worth 25 points instead of 20.

January 2009 Software Points Results

Code:

     January 2009	
1.   Jesse2040          97.7
2.   apujanata          93.32
3.   billy.sea          88.96
4.   Brakara            83.78
5.   WaltJay            82.92
6.   llonesmiz          79.45
7.   John Dunbar        78.11
8.   GAF Average        78
9.   botticus           77.16
10.  Frillen            76.92
11.  boontje            76.39
12.  donny2112          76.15
13.  rostocker          75.73
14.  sionyboy           75.48
15.  The M.O.B          74.76
16.  Chumly             71.25
17.  andy_lhc           71.05
18.  Hammer24           70.81
19.  kefka2030          69.57
20.  starship           69.21
21.  TwinIonEngines     68.03
22.  Flakster99         67.56
23.  Rawkus             65.86
24.  RBH                57.73
25.  DayShallCome       42.65

Congratulations, Jesse2040 (and EEDAR)!

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