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(Hardware) May 2010 NPD Predictions - Closes June 6

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donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 5 p.m. EDT on Sunday, June 13th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 2-29 (4 weeks, April was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: July 1st @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[360]
[NDS]
[PS3]
[PSP]
[WII]

Code: 
Good              Bad
[NDS] 500K        [NDS] 500 thousand
[NDS] 500,000     [NDS] 500.000
[NDS] 500000      [NDS] - 500000
The Software Prediction thread is here.


Potential hardware impacting events in May:
Wii Bundle with Wii Sports Resort/Black Wii - May 9th


April's Results - thanks to NPD and EviLore

EviLore said:
PlayStation 3 180.8K
PSP 65.5K
Xbox 360 185.4K
Wii 277.2K
Nintendo DS 440.8K


1. TOM CLANCY’S SPLINTER CELL: CONVICTION* 360 UBISOFT Apr-10 486.1K
2. POKEMON SOULSILVER VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-10 242.9K
3. NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 200.3K
4. POKEMON HEARTGOLD VERSION NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Mar-10 192.6K
5. GOD OF WAR III* PS3 SONY Mar-10 180.3K
6. WII SPORTS RESORT W/ WII MOTION PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09
7. BATTLEFIELD: BAD COMPANY 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Mar-10 166K
8. WII FIT PLUS W/ BALANCE BOARD* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09
9. JUST DANCE WII UBISOFT Nov-09
10. SUPER STREET FIGHTER IV PS3 CAPCOM USA Apr-10 143K

*. SUPER STREET FIGHTER IV 360 CAPCOM USA Apr-10 108K

(*includes CE, GOTY editions, bundles, etc. but not those bundled with hardware)
Click to expand...

Apr-09 -> May-09 transition:

Code: 
      Apr-09  May-09   % change
360     175K    175K   +  0%
NDS    1042K    634K   - 39%
PS3     127K    131K   +  3%
PSP     116K    100K   - 13%
WII     340K    290K   - 15%

April Prediction Results
 
[360] 215k
[NDS] 445k
[PS3] 199k
[PSP] 67k
[WII] 380k

This year May seems like a bigger month than it was last year, plus April was depressing so I'm expecting hardware sales up across the board. Except for PS2, but thanks to NPD we can't predict that now!
 
[360] 195K
[NDS] 430K
[PS3] 185K
[PSP] 60K
[WII] 290K

Assumptions: Really, the only major releases that struck me as potential system-sellers were Red Dead Redemption and Super Mario Galaxy 2. Due to RDR, SMG2, and the release of the Black Wii/WSR bundles, console sales will be up slightly, while portable sales will decrease slightly. Personally, I expect June to be a much bigger month for most of the platforms.
 
timetokill said:
So is this deadline still solid with a delay from NPD, or...?
Click to expand...
It isn't clear when customers will get access to the data, and that makes it messy. It is entirely possible that customers (including Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony) will get access to the NPD figures early -- or release their own internal figures -- prior to the media release that NPD says they'll do.

To be safe (aka fair) I'd keep to the deadline and hope we really get figures with which to compare.
 
-viper- said:
So what happens if you get your predictions right? Do you get a prize or something?
Click to expand...
Access to the GAFmobile for the month and free use of the Amazon-referral slush fund.
 
jvm said:
To be safe (aka fair) I'd keep to the deadline and hope we really get figures with which to compare.
Click to expand...

Yeah, we'll keep the deadline for now, especially since we don't have solid information about 1) when May NPD will be released and 2) if purchasers will still get access to the data at the regular time. This does put June's predictions in a bit of limbo, though. If we have back to back weeks of NPD releases, do we really have time to predict for the second week's data?
 
donny2112 said:
Yeah, we'll keep the deadline for now, especially since we don't have solid information about 1) when May NPD will be released and 2) if purchasers will still get access to the data at the regular time. This does put June's predictions in a bit of limbo, though. If we have back to back weeks of NPD releases, do we really have time to predict for the second week's data?
Click to expand...
One subscriber has told me they thought they'd have access to the data on time. Another told me not until July. So I don't know what to think.

I think you're taking the wise choice keeping the deadline fixed. Agreed, however, that June data is a mess. :(
 
Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:
HW prediction is still valid with no change in the deadline.. or after NPD delays, something is changed ?
Click to expand...

For now, nothing's changed. Deadline is still June 6th. IF NPD numbers turn up as being delayed for subscribers, too, then it'll probably be extended one week to June 13th (Sunday before E3).
 
NPD has confirmed with IndustryGamers today that it's not releasing its May video game sales data until early July. Apparently a "significant change" is being made to the company's IT (architecture) in order to "better serve all of our clients and research partners."
Click to expand...

So I'm a bit confused here if the delay is because of this and clients still get the data on time, but not he public that doesn't add up too well. If such a change is being made would that not interrupt the service for both.
 
donny2112 said:
IF NPD numbers turn up as being delayed for subscribers, too, then it'll probably be extended one week to June 13th (Sunday before E3).
Click to expand...

Okay, it looks like subscribers are delayed, as well, so the deadline (Hardware and Software) is delayed a week to June 13th. Apparently the May NPD will come out July 1, so the June NPD predictions can proceed on the normal schedule, if a little close to May's release. :)
 
Honest question: why?
My gut feeling doesn´t change, no matter if the deadline is a week later or not.
But with the later deadline the chance of a leak increases, making the picks unfair.
I´d say keep the deadline as initially planned, thats fair to all participants.
 
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