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[Bomba Age] List of games this fall 2011 that will bomb because of their release date

T

The Dutch Slayer

Member
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So we have seen this over and over and over again.
Not all games do as well as they COULD have if the publishers just had a different release date.
We see this across all media movies/books/music/media in general.

Its not so much about the quality of your content but about your timing of release and the buzz around that time in general.
You need to have the mindset if you want your game to do well.

Their so many games coming out this fall and their are just not enough gamers to support all of them in that time period and even if there ware enough they do not have enough money to buy them all day 1 for full price.

So GAF the question to YOU is with onces on the list is going to bomb HARD just because of their window of release and NOT because of the quality of the game.

For now I have filled a lot of them just to give you everyone an idea but if most of you thing one way or the other I'll change it of course.

LEGEND:
STATUS BOMB = game is going to fail in sales because of its release date
STATUS Maybe = game has a change if by a combination of word of month and reviews it could get noticed, but at this moment not sure how its going to do.
STATUS OK = games is big enough to stand out in its current release window/date

Special LEGEND:
STATUS PLATFORM BOMB = the game is coming to a platform that is not really suited or well know for this type of game, so a greater chance that this specific game will not do well on its new platform.
Click to expand...

MOST GAMES ARE RETAIL ONLY WITH USA RELEASE DATES:

August 2011:
El Shaddai; 16th STATUS [Maybe]
No More Heroes: Heroes Paradise; 16th STATUS: [BOMB]
Deus Ex: Human Revolution; 23rd STATUS: [OK]
Madden NFL 12; 30th STATUS: [OK IN THE USA ONLY EU = BOMB]
Bodycount; 30th STATUS: [BOMB]
Driver: San Francisco; 30th STATUS [BOMB]
Tropico 4; 30th STATUS: [PLATFORM BOMB 360]
Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad; 30th STATUS [OK]
Click to expand...
September 2011:
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine; 6th STATUS [Maybe]
Might & Magic Heroes VI; 6th STATUS [BOMB]
Dead Island; 6th STATUS [Maybe]
Resistance 3; 6th STATUS [Maybe]
Disgaea 4; 6th STATUS [OK]
Star Fox 64 3D; 11th STATUS [OK]
White Knight Chronicles 2; 13th STATUS [BOMB]
NHL 12; 13th STATUS [OK]
Child of Eden (ps3); 20th STATUS [BOMB]
F1 2011; 20th STATUS [OK IN THE EU ONLY USA = BOMB]
Gears of War 3; 20th STATUS [OK]
Ico and Shadow of the Colossus Collection; 27th STATUS [OK]
FIFA Soccer 12; 27th STATUS [OK IN THE EU ONLY USA = Maybe]
X-Men Destiny; 27th STATUS [BOMB]
Click to expand...
October 2011:
Spider-Man Edge of Time; 4th STATUS [BOMB]
Rage; 4th STATUS [OK]
NBA 2K1; 4th STATUS [OK]
Dark Souls; 4th STATUS [Maybe]
Ace Combat: Assault Horizon; 11th STATUS [BOMB]
Rocksmith; 11th STATUS [BOMB]
Just Dance 3; 11th STATUS [OK]
Forza Motorsport 4; 11th STATUS [OK]
Dead Rising 2: Off the Record; 11th STATUS [BOMB]
Batman: Arkham City; 18th STATUS [OK]
Ratchet and Clank: All 4 One; 18th STATUS [BOMB]
Battlefield 3; 25th STATUS [OK]
Dance Central 2; 25th STATUS [Maybe]
Dragon Ball Z: Ultimate Tenkaich; 25th [BOMB]
Kirby Mass Attack (NDS); 28th STATUS [MAYBE]
Sims 3 pets; 31st STATUS [OK]
Click to expand...
November 2011:
Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception; 1st STATUS [OK]
Sonic Generations; 1st STATUS [BOMB]
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North; 1st STATUS: [BOMB]
GoldenEye 007: Reloaded 1st STATUS [BOMB]
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3; 8th STATUS [OK]
Metal Gear HD collection; 8th STATUS [OK]
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim; 11th STATUS [OK]
Super Mario 3D Land; 13th STATUS [OK]
Need For Speed: The Run; 15th STATUS [OK]
Assassin's Creed: Revelations; 15th STATUS [OK]
Halo Anniversary; 15th STATUS [OK]
Saints Row: The Third; 15th STATUS [BOMB]
Rayman Origin's; 15th STATUS [BOMB]
Legend of Zelda SS; 20th STATUS [OK]
Click to expand...
December 2011:
Mario Kart 3DS; 4th STATUS [OK]
The Adventures of Tintin; 6th STATUS [Maybe]
Star Wars The Old Republic; 22nd STATUS [BIG MAYBE]
Click to expand...

UNCONFIRMED DATES BUT SHOULD BE RELEASED BEFORE DECEMBER 31st 2011:
Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City; STATUS [Maybe]
Silent Hill HD collection; STATUS [BOMB]
Various Kinect games are missing if you have any info please let me know
Click to expand...

PS: I know for a fact that I missed some games, please list them below with the correct USA release date than I can add them to the OP.
PPS: This list if for games released from August 1st to December 31st 2011, USA releases only.
I know this is a VERY international forum BUT just to keep it simple for now USA releases only.

IN SHORT: NAME THE GAMES THAT ARE GOING TO BOMB THIS FALL (2011).
 
NHL does decently in Europe thanks to the Nordic countries. Sonic, and Ratchet won't bomb. They're not going to debut with 500k, but they'll slow crawl like they always do.
 
Twisted Metal - may be. The franchise is still strong.

Same goes for Saints Row.
 
Takao said:
NHL does decently in Europe thanks to the Nordic countries. Sonic, and Ratchet won't bomb. They're not going to debut with 500k, but they'll slow crawl like they always do.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that I'll adjust and will see about Sonic and Ratchet if more people think that than I'll change it.
 
Also, I feel it's worth noting that Need For Speed has consistently sold 5+ million copies for the past four years, even with horrendously awful releases, so I think that's a pretty safe bet for OK.
 
daviyoung said:
Red Orchestra 2 is OK?

What?
Click to expand...
Red Orchestra will sell its 250-300k to its dedicated, hardcore followers no problem, as expected, and have a robust community for the next ~4 years. Typical of a well crafted PC-exclusive shooter. Shooters don't need to sell 1 million let alone 10 million to be successful.
 
DaBuddaDa said:
Red Orchestra will sell its 250-300k to its dedicated, hardcore followers no problem, as expected, and have a robust community for the next ~4 years. Typical of a well crafted PC-exclusive shooter. Shooters don't need to sell 1 million let alone 10 million to be successful.
Click to expand...
Exactly why I put an OK with the game.
Nirolak said:
Also, I feel it's worth noting that Need For Speed has consistently sold 5+ million copies for the past four years, even with horrendously awful releases, so I think that's a pretty safe bet for OK.
Click to expand...
Ok thanks for that, with those numbers behind it I'm convinced that I'll do fine than.
 
daviyoung said:
Red Orchestra 2 is OK?

What?
Click to expand...

PC only multiplayer game + being the second entry after a successful (sales-wise) game + 40$ = a hit game. Will sell solid numbers.
 
It's not really that fair stating that niche titles like No More Heroes will bomb considering the small target audience for them as well as the likely low print run. Sticking to larger titles I'd say the following will do poorly:

Need For Speed: The Run
Rayman Origins
The Adventures of Tintin
Rage
The Darkness 2
Twisted Metal
Rocksmith
Ratchet and Clank: All 4 One
Silent Hill: Downpour
Bodycount
Driver: San Francisco
Child of Eden (ps3)
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine
Resistance 3
Star Fox 64 3D
White Knight Chronicles 2

Sonic Generations could go either way, Colours performed poorly to start with but has had a relatively long shelf life.
 
DaBuddaDa said:
Red Orchestra will sell its 250-300k to its dedicated, hardcore followers no problem, as expected, and have a robust community for the next ~4 years. Typical of a well crafted PC-exclusive shooter. Shooters don't need to sell 1 million let alone 10 million to be successful.
Click to expand...

they aim at 1 million copies minimum according to their internal data.
 
I think Saints Row: The Third should be Maybe. Open world games are always good sellers, especially when they look like GTA.

subversus said:
they aim at 1 million copies minimum according to their internal data.
Click to expand...
Overall or during the launch window? I was talking launch window. I'd be surprised if they sell 1 million in the first ~month.
 
I don't see Sonic bombing, they always manage to sell in the millions somehow. Disgaea 4 should be fine too since sales expectations aren't huge and fans will buy it regardless of what releases around it.
 
DaBuddaDa said:
Overall or during the launch window? I was talking launch window. I'd be surprised if they sell 1 million in the first ~month.
Click to expand...

overall of course
 
Azure Phoenix said:
It's not really that fair stating that niche titles like No More Heroes will bomb considering the small target audience for them as well as the likely low print run. Sticking to larger titles I'd say the following will do poorly:

Need For Speed: The Run
Rayman Origins
The Adventures of Tintin
Rage
The Darkness 2
Twisted Metal
Rocksmith
Ratchet and Clank: All 4 One
Silent Hill: Downpour
Bodycount
Driver: San Francisco
Child of Eden (ps3)
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine
Resistance 3
Star Fox 64 3D
White Knight Chronicles 2


Sonic Generations could go either way, Colours performed poorly to start with but has had a relatively long shelf life.
Click to expand...

WKC2 isn't even being published by the company it should be. It's a niche title.
 
Just a reminder this list is not about the game itself just about WHEN they are released.
Think about it this way:

If they game was released in the exact same status of development but in a different time frame of the year would it do better?
 
I think with talk of the Hobbit kicking off already and the blu-ray release of the movies I think The Lord of the Rings: War in the North should be alright.
 
The Dutch Slayer said:
Just a reminder this list is not about the game itself just about WHEN they are released.
Think about it this way:

If they game was released in the exact same status of development but in a different time frame of the year would it do better?
Click to expand...

Something like Disgaea 4 is basically immune to stuff like that. It has niche fans that will buy it whenever.
 
Goldrusher said:
If a game is good and popular, it will sell. Doesn't matter when it releases.
Click to expand...
Good and popular aren't necessarily contingent on one another. It's popularity that sells a game, whether it is deserved or bought popularity.
 
I'd say Dark Souls will sell much better than Demon's, and Demon's sold around 500k with almost zero marketing.
 
Some predictions from me:

  • Dark Souls: PS3 - Maybe 360 - Bomb
  • Twisted Metal: Bomb
  • Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine - Bomb
  • The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings (360) - Maybe
  • Dead Island: Bomb
  • Resistance 3: Maybe
 
Takao said:
WKC2 isn't even being published by the company it should be. It's a niche title.
Click to expand...
I'm basing that from the European release, which was published by Sony and they sent a relatively decent amount of copies to stores. It must be a much more low key release in America.
 
I'm worried for The Witcher 2 on the 360, being released so close to an established RPG franchise in the console userbase (Skyrim). Hope it doesn't bomb, but eeehhh.
 
Goldrusher said:
If a game is good and popular, it will sell. Doesn't matter when it releases.
Click to expand...
No that is NOT at all true (in my opinion), if yo look at May of 2010

UFC 2010
Blur
Split Second: Velocity
Alan Wake
ModNation Racers

ALL got no attention because of the release of Red Dead if those games would have been released in a different window they would all have done so much better.
Its not about the quality of the game but about WHEN you release it.
 
The Dutch Slayer said:
No that is NOT at all true (in my opinion), if yo look at May of 2010

UFC 2010
Blur
Split Second: Velocity
Alan Wake
ModNation Racers

ALL got no attention because of the release of Red Dead if those games would have been released in a different window they would all have done so much better.
Its not about the quality of the game but about WHEN you release it.
Click to expand...

Then why do games do well when they're released around Call of Duty? That's significantly more popular than RDR. Some games just aren't going to sell well regardless of when they're released.
 
This topic doesn't make sense and this list is frustrating to read.

I have issues right off the back. You say your topic is about games that will bomb solely because of their release date, implying they would do somewhat better in a different slot. I don't think your list reflects that at all. Your list just predicts what will be a commercial success/failure in your own opinion.

Look at some of your first few. What possible release window could No More Heroes sell better? Same for Lord of the Rings.

Release date has nothing to do with the sales of those games, and many more (disgaea...)
 
Perhaps I'm underestimating Uncharted 3 but I think that will bomb, by that I mean not do more than 5 million which the likes of gears, MW, Skyrim etc will do and would assume that to be the benchmark for such a game. NFS:HP was at discount price the whole of release time so been though it shipped lots the game did not do too well. Twisted Metal will get fucked as will Saints Row 3.
 
Rage is going to bomb, hard. So fucking hard.

I've seen a few half assed ads online and on TV. That won't do a damn thing. There is almost no hype, it looks dated, the graphics don't look as impressive as the used to, it's been delayed too many times, oh, and lets not forget that its a shooter coming out when a bajillion other shooters are being released.

It won't stand a chance.
 
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