• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

February 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes March 5

D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, March 5th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: January 29-February 25 (4 weeks, January was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: March 8th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[360] 400K        [360] 400 thousand
[360] 400,000     [360] 400.000
[360] 400000      [360] - 400000


Potential hardware impacting events in February:
PSVita launches - 1st Edition Bundle Feb. 15 (11 days)/Regular versions Feb 22 (4 days)

January's Results - thanks to Nirolak, Nintendo, and Petrae

Nirolak said:
Hardware:

Xbox 360: 270K (-29%)
Click to expand...
3DS: 150K-200K ("slightly less than 4.1m" in December and "just over 4.25m" in January)
PS3+Wii: ~340K

January 2011 NPD thread
February 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
This is the amount of information i would like to see:

[360] 280k
[3DS] 240k
[PS3] 170k
[PSV] 185k
[WII] 120k

What we are likely to see:

[360] 280k

edit: Resident evil not listed under hardware movers?
 
Duxxy3 said:
edit: Resident evil not listed under hardware movers?
Click to expand...

Will Revelaitons move 3DSs more than just normal throughput? I didn't see it doing so, but don't mind putting it in if most think it will move noticeable hardware in February. Note that big games, in general, don't get listed. Just games due to move noticeable hardware amounts (e.g. MGS4, GTAIV, Mario Kart 7, special bundles).
 
I think you guys are lowballing pretty hard, generally Feb > Jan and we did have some actual games come out in Feb's reporting period FF13-2, KOA:R, RE:R, Binary Domain.
 
My pessimism got me a top five position last month I've just found out! PRESSURE.

[360] 240k
[3DS] 190k
[PS3] 130k
[PSV] 150k
[WII] 130k

STAGNATION DEEPENS.
 
pieatorium said:
I think you guys are lowballing pretty hard, generally Feb > Jan and we did have some actual games come out in Feb's reporting period FF13-2, KOA:R, RE:R, Binary Domain.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but I think we're in a death spiral for the gen. Don't know if I'm just sick of winter so am extra pessimistic, but I think all 3 mfgs are going to get punished throughout the rest of the year for their insistence on hanging on to ancient hardware well past the shelf life. I also think the Kinect excitement has petered out, past the point of driving mass hardware purchases.

It seems as though there is a bubble where everybody who wanted one of these consoles has one, so the days of big sale months are just over. None of the games you listed, IMO, are going to spur anybody to action. Possibly Mass Effect 3, if somebody has an old dead Xbox/PS3 laying around, will get them to replace it.
 
Cheech said:
Yeah, but I think we're in a death spiral for the gen. Don't know if I'm just sick of winter so am extra pessimistic, but I think all 3 mfgs are going to get punished throughout the rest of the year for their insistence on hanging on to ancient hardware well past the shelf life. I also think the Kinect excitement has petered out, past the point of driving mass hardware purchases.

It seems as though there is a bubble where everybody who wanted one of these consoles has one, so the days of big sale months are just over. None of the games you listed, IMO, are going to spur anybody to action. Possibly Mass Effect 3, if somebody has an old dead Xbox/PS3 laying around, will get them to replace it.
Click to expand...

Yeah but alot of the predictions in here are for over 50% yoy declines that is almost twice as bad as last month, and month to month decline feb-jan I just don't see it happening.
 
pieatorium said:
and month to month decline feb-jan I just don't see it happening.
Click to expand...

February has been very weird the last few years. It's typically seen unexpectedly large increases, which sometimes get associated with tax returns coming in. It also tends to be a favored month for NPD "software updates," which also gets attributed as to the reason for the weird increases. With Wal-Mart in the picture now, could see them using February to start including that data, too. Lots of extra considerations for the predictions this month. :P
 
Vita is all that matters this month in terms of prediction winners

[PSV] 333,333
[360] 303,333
[3DS] 188,888
[PS3] 177,777
[WII] 121,121

[NDS] 99,999
 
Torn, last year February had abnormally high sales and I'm expecting a slight rebound at some point ...

[360] 350k
[3DS] 250k
[PS3] 250k
[PSV] 210k
[WII] 190k
 
[360] 310,000
[3DS] 245,000
[PS3] 230,000
[PSV] 220,000
[WII] 170,000

It's 1.2 million shipped worldwide, about 590,000 sold-through in Japan. That's 610,000 remaining shipped, so maybe 500,000 are for EU and US territories. The sell-through could be about ~70%, that's 350,000 sold. Europe/US ~ 60/40, so that's 140,000. Add another 60,000, because I'm a Sony fanboy, and there you go. That's math alright.

Apparently it's sold, not shipped.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Marathon Releases March 5 '26 - $39.99
64 65 66 67 68
3K
15K
Slayer-33 replied
[Millie A] PS3 Active Users Dropped from 1.1 million in February to 240k in March Due to Netflix Ending Support
2
93
1K
Tiago Rodrigues replied
Coming soon, a new RPG from Bandai Namco (March 5, 15:00 PDT / March 6, 00:00 CET)
Trailer  2
64
874
poodaddy replied
PS+ Extra for March Leaked: Personal 5, Space Marine 2, Madden 26
2
80
1K
Forsete replied
Metro 2039 Delayed Until February 2027
17
318
Nocty replied
Top Bottom