• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NeoGAF Summer Movie US Box Office Prediction Thread 2012 |OT| [Voting ends April 30]

Status
Not open for further replies.
L

LegendofJoe

Member
I love this thread. I'll come back later and make my predictions once I've put some thought/analysis into it.

I will say this though, the Hobbit is going to crush everything released this year. The book it is based on is more beloved and successful than the Lord of the Rings is if you can believe it. Can you say guaranteed money? It will also have the 3D/new technology boost that Avatar had, which will further increase its box office earnings. This isn't even mentioning the massive worldwide following that the LotR movies and Tolkien's books have. The Hobbit will be the largest grossing film of all time when everything is said and done, I am certain of it.
 
shira

shira

Member
LegendofJoe said:
I love this thread. I'll come back later and make my predictions once I've put some thought/analysis into it.

I will say this though, the Hobbit is going to crush everything released this year. The book it is based on is more beloved and successful than the Lord of the Rings is if you can believe it. Can you say guaranteed money? It will also have the 3D/new technology boost that Avatar had, which will further increase its box office earnings. This isn't even mentioning the massive worldwide following that the LotR movies and Tolkien's books have. The Hobbit will be the largest grossing film of all time when everything is said and done, I am certain of it.
Click to expand...

I know looks more and more like we will need to have a 2012 Box Office + Worldwide to fit in all the movie comparisons.

For the New page
Correct Format:
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 1st overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 2nd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 3rd overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 4th overall
[4 letter movie code] + opening weekend + dash + 5th overall

WW#: Feel free to add your WorldWide Box Office predictions below US Box Office

Example:
[MARS] 40M – 900M
I think John Carter will gross the most overall,
forty million dollars in its opening weekend,
and gross nine hundred million for the summer
M = million of dollars
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Deadline: ‘Battleship’ Goes To War Overseas: #1 Almost Every Country Where It Opened:

The Day One estimate for April 11th currently has the film grossing $7.4M. Best is that the film jumped to #1 in every market where it opened or previewed except France where it succumbed to an extremely popular local French film. And this despite a crowded international marketplace with The Hunger Games, Titanic 3D, American Pie Reunion, and The Wrath Of The Titans atop box office over Easter weekend.

It was an unorthodox, even daring, strategy for Universal to open Battleship internationally more than a month before it debuts May 18th in North America. But it may pay off. My sources project the film should steam past $300M foreign box office based on stats. Also, as the film prepares to open internationally Friday in a total 26 territories (40 countries) and then rolls to another 24 territories including big guns Russia and China, any fears that a rah-rah-USA patriotic film in 2D might not do well overseas have been allayed.

– The movie opened in Australia today and Battleship is #1 with an early estimate of $1.1M for the day, which is at the same level as Iron Man and Thor and twice as big as John Carter, and three times as big as Wrath Of The Titans

– In Southeast Asia, where extravagant sci-fi appeals to local audiences, Battleship is “dominating the box office with Korea leading the pack,” I’m told. Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand also had a very strong showing. In each of those countries, Batttleship opened to #1.

– In Korea, Battleship opened to $2.8M – the third biggest opening day of all time for an English language film. That’s behind only Transformers 3 and Shrek 3 even though Battleship is an original film which usually takes longer to gain traction overseas than sequels. It’s also the biggest opening for an English language non-sequel in Korea ever.

– Preview results in the UK were very strong. Battleship grossed $1.5M (£928K) for the day. As a comp, previews for Thor in the UK were £730K and Iron Man £670K. There’s another day of previews today before opening officially on Friday.

– France opened with $870K including previews. Battleship opened bigger than Hunger Games, John Carter and Wrath Of Titans.

– Belgium opened #1 with $132k, which is the biggest opening day of 2012
Click to expand...
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Meh, I don't really like this thread's format. Would have preferred a weekly thing in the Box Office threads.

With that said...

Dark Knight Rises: 165m - 510m
Avengers: 110m - 270m
Amazing Spider-Man: 75m - 180m
Men in Black 3 - 55m - 160m
Bourne Legacy - 55m - 170m

Don't care about the other movies so I won't put numbers for them.

Edit: Okay I added Bourne just so I could have 5 movies, but I'm not changing the other four. I think I lowballed Avengers, oh well.
 
shira

shira

Member
Last weekend to play

Avengers opens this week WW so if you want to throw in your WW#

Avengers opens next week US/Canada so voting ends April 30th.

Tx
 
X

XiaNaphryz

LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
Deadline - Avengers Breaking Overseas Records:

The superhero certain blockbuster doesn’t come out in the U.S. until May 4th. But my sources say early box office estimates are coming out of Australia this evening where Marvel‘s The Avengers from Disney was released today for the start of its international run. And the hotly anticipated actioner is already shattering box office records overseas. It earned in U.S. dollar estimates of $6.0M in Australia and $1.2M in Taiwan and $700K in New Zealand for almost $8M from the three countries on Wednesday. Two of the nations, Australia and New Zealand were holidays: ANZAC Day, so that helped boost box office.

Australia’s opening day is the second-highest opening of all time there behind only the final Harry Potter (A$7M). It is also the highest Marvel opening day ever, 214% ahead of Iron Man 2 (A$1.8M Thursday opening) and 136% ahead of The Dark Knight (A$2.5M Thursday opening), and the highest Disney opening day ever for a Disney film. The pic playing in Taiwan is the biggest industry Wednesday opening ever, the biggest opening day of 2012 (173% above Battleship) and the second-biggest opening day for any Marvel film (after only Spider-Man 3). In New Zealand, pic scored a higher opening than The Dark Knight and Iron Man 2. This is the first Marvel film to be marketed and distributed by Disney, so this is great news for the studio.
Click to expand...
 
M

Meier

Member
[TDKR] 178M - 485M
[AVEN] 163M - 385M
[TASM] 130M - 305M
[BRAV] 80M - 275M
[MIB3] 90M - 245M

Since going over nets 0, I guess I better hedge my bets on TDKR. I think Ice Age 4 will finish around 200 like the previous 2 and 3 (and do insane numbers overseas) and Prometheus will finish 6th at around $225. The Rock's inclusion will push G.I. Joe 2 to nearly $200 on a huge $75 million opening.
 
shira

shira

Member
That's a record breaking, Massive tdkr open

but I'm stuck with mib3. I know it is going to have bad word of mouth and does will smith still have "it"
 
M

Meier

Member
shira said:
Only 6 entrants so far :(
Click to expand...

The OP was a bit daunting due to its length so I just subscribed to the thread initially and figured I'd come back later closer to the deadline. Hopefully there will be a bit of an influx in the next week.
 
shira

shira

Member
Meier said:
The OP was a bit daunting due to its length so I just subscribed to the thread initially and figured I'd come back later closer to the deadline. Hopefully there will be a bit of an influx in the next week.
Click to expand...
Totally expected with the add nature of message boards.
This takes 5-10 minutes of time.
 
E

Expendable.

Member
I personally would have entered if it was more fun and included more films instead of the easy top 5. I know the Totally Rad Show guys do something like the below:

The object is to pick the films that you think will be the top-ten grossing films of the summer, in order of box-office performance. As I’ve said, that means only films released from April 29th 2011 to the Labor Day weekend, counting only the money those films make domestically (US and Canada) in that period.

So what you will be doing is figuring out what 10 films will make the most money, and putting them in order of what you think they will gross at the box office. BUT, in addition to your top 10, you get to pick 3 “Dark Horses”- films you think *might* make it, but that you are not confident enough about to put into the top 10 proper.

The Scoring:

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:
10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
5 points if it was two spots away
3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10
The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick. e.g. if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.
Click to expand...

Seems like we would get much more involvement that way.
 
shira

shira

Member
Expendable. said:
I personally would have entered if it was more fun and included more films instead of the easy top 5. I know the Totally Rad Show guys do something like the below:



Seems like we would get much more involvement that way.
Click to expand...
Meh first thread. Got a tonne of feedback.
Apparently everyone wants something different.
I just used the NPD template since most people are familiar with that.
 
V

vicissitudes

Banned
Expendable. said:
I personally would have entered if it was more fun and included more films instead of the easy top 5. I know the Totally Rad Show guys do something like the below:

Seems like we would get much more involvement that way.
Click to expand...

I couldn't even make a good guess for 5 films because I wasn't that familiar with a lot of them.

This coming from someone who posts in all the weekend box office threads.

shira said:
Meh first thread. Got a tonne of feedback.
Apparently everyone wants something different.
I just used the NPD template since most people are familiar with that.
Click to expand...

Yeah pretty much.
 
A

artist

Banned
Thought this belonged here, might help some people with their foreign/WW predictions - BOM's OS predictions.

The Dark Knight Rises: $850 million

Ice Age: Continental Drift: $740 million

The Avengers: $580 million

The Amazing Spider-Man: $570 million

Madagascar 3: $525 million

Brave: $380 million

MIB 3: $370 million

Snow White and the Huntsman: $280 million

Battleship: $270 million

G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $260 million

Prometheus: $250 million

Dark Shadows: $240 million

Rock of Ages: $230 million

The Bourne Legacy: $200 million

The Expendables 2: $180 million
Click to expand...
 
B

Biggest-Geek-Ever

Member
[TDKR] 206M - 580M
[AVEN] 174M - 455M
[PROM] 93M - 300M
[BRAV] 65M - 255M
[TASM] 60M (130M*) - 240M

*This is technically a 6-day weekend, which makes 3-day predictions kind of shitty. That 130M figure is for the 6-day, which I'd suggest we should use instead.
 
E

Expendable.

Member
Why not:

[TDKR] 160M - 525M
[AVEN] 135M - 390M
[TASM] 130M - 370M
[BRAV] 65M - 230M
[PROM] 60M - 220M


MIB3 was tricky, but more of a personal hope it doesn't do that well. I could also see Bourne, GI Joe and Snow White surprising like crazy.
 
shira

shira

Member
Expendable. said:
Eh, he's much better than someone bland like Sam Worthington..or half the other actors tweens seem to love. I also can't wait to see him in James Gray's next movie. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters could very well be a bomba.
Click to expand...
He's not pretty enough
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Do Reviews Matter? A look at Domestic Box Office and RT Scores for Big Budget Films
2
63
6K
Monocle replied
  • Locked
Polygon's 500 best games of all time (Dec 2017 publication)
3
3K
GenericUser replied
  • Locked
NeoGAF’s Summer Box Office Prediction Game! - 2016 Edition
4
2K
Toothless replied
  • Locked
Wkd Box Office 10•30-11•01•15 - Bullock & Cooper's burnt brand(s) in crisis?
2 3 4
186
17K
Slayven replied
  • Locked
Wkd Box Office 06•19-21•15 - Box Office got the same alpha, Inside Out opening Dope
3 4 5 6 7
315
35K
DR2K replied
Top Bottom