• Hey Guest. Check out your NeoGAF Wrapped 2025 results here!

The effect of online services on the upcoming console transition

D

Durante

Member
Traditionally, when transitioning from one console generation to the next, the slate is wiped clean. Platform holders will have to entice customers anew, and there can be huge changes in the marketplace if they fail to do so. It happened to Nintendo after the SNES and it happened to Sony after the PS2.

However, with the widespread adoption of online services this has changed. Gamers now have a history of friends, achievements and content that can not be easily migrated from one platform holder to another. This will be more significant for some than others, but I think it's clear that the situation is different from before.

My question is this: how significant do you think the impact of this new factor will be? Will it lead to much smaller changes in the upcoming marketplace compared to previous generational transitions, or will the content on the upcoming platforms still dominate the decision making of gamers over their online history? Does Nintendo start from a bad position because they didn't create a fleshed out online system on the Wii? And finally, will it even be possible for a new company to enter the market once all the online services are firmly entrenched?
 
Depending on a number of factors (platform reliability, customer service) the main things that will tie a person to a platform are:

1. Friends choosing a system over others
2. How much you have invested in digital content (eg XBLA/VC/PSN games)
3. Backwards compatibility for these downloads

At least for PS4/720, no real details are known but its safe to assume they would be insane not to let you keep your download titles. I think Wii U VC transfers have already been confirmed, so thats no loss there thankfully.

A lot of people will have their hand forced by which digital libraries they have invested heavily in, and the slate will only be wiped clean, so to speak, if any of the 3 platform holders are silly enough to make your old content redundant.

I think some people will be reluctant to let their library vanish into the ether, especially if they add it all up. I fully expect all three systems to have continuity for digital libraries.
 
Durante said:
My question is this: how significant do you think the impact of this new factor will be? Will it lead to much smaller changes in the upcoming marketplace compared to previous generational transitions, or will the content on the upcoming platforms still dominate the decision making of gamers over their online history? Does Nintendo start from a bad position because they didn't create a fleshed out online system on the Wii? And finally, will it even be possible for a new company to enter the market once all the online services are firmly entrenched?
Click to expand...

It will be one of the most prominent factors impacting buying decisions next generation, at least regarding the enthusiast market: MS will likely win for exactly this reason. And yes, it will lead to some stagnation in the marketplace. Content will affect users still, but it will be negatively or positively impacted by the network externalities resulting from the online ecosystems. Yes, this should be a concern for Nintendo to some extent, but it's less dangerous to them due to their unique place as a development house. Anyone else would be fucked. Outside of an OnLive or Gaikai type company taking over, I see no method by which another company could enter the console market and do well.
 
Microsoft will have a much easier time transitioning some of their base towards the next generation due to the loyal, invested XBLA audience, I'm sure.
 
Durante said:
However, with the widespread adoption of online services this has changed. Gamers now have a history of friends, achievements and content that can not be easily migrated from one platform holder to another. This will be more significant for some than others, but I think it's clear that the situation is different from before.

My question is this: how significant do you think the impact of this new factor will be?
Click to expand...

This new factor mean flawless BC and painless account migration is a must for next gen console owners. There's a lot of expectations that will be the case for the 360.

For the PS3 not so much. If PS4 has a different architecture and they're dropping the cell I have my doubts on how their BC will compare the competition. If I can still play all my xbox live arcade and retail titles on nextbox but not PS3 titles on PS4 then I might not buy a PS4.
 
RandomVince said:
I think some people will be reluctant to let their library vanish into the ether, especially if they add it all up. I fully expect all three systems to have continuity for digital libraries.
Click to expand...
I agree with you and others that it's very important to have, but I don't think Sony will actually be able to offer it. At least not in the traditional BC sense -- from all we know of PS4, it has no chance to run PS3 games. (Unless they put a Cell in there)
 
Durante said:
I agree with you and others that it's very important to have, but I don't think Sony will actually be able to offer it. At least not in the traditional BC sense -- from all we know of PS4, it has no chance to run PS3 games. (Unless they put a Cell in there)
Click to expand...

Sony will have to or they are going to be screwed. They have to find some way to do it. Otherwise, people will shift to MS entirely. Sony's 1st parties aren't strong enough to maintain the company after that sort of betrayal of trust, particularly if Nintendo does it and Sony doesn't.
 
Haunted said:
Microsoft will have a much easier time transitioning some of their base towards the next generation due to the loyal, invested XBLA audience, I'm sure.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's due to XBLA all that much.

It's COD bros who only play COD and want to keep playing COD with the bros they've always played COD with.
 
speedpop said:
And yet I wonder whether they will continue to be beholden to the dinosaur that is retail.
Click to expand...

Um... until bandwidth caps are no longer a concern... a while. Also, as unimaginable as it may sound, a lot of people still buy their games at retail - and not only because of a lack of options.
 
gdt said:
I don't think it's due to XBLA all that much.

It's COD bros who only play COD and want to keep playing COD with the bros they've always played COD with.
Click to expand...

I agree with this except for one disclaimer: new gen offers a new chance for new games. Last gen GTA was the equivalent of this generation's CoD. Before that it was stuff like LoZ and Final Fantasy.

People will want to keep the same friends, but I wouldn't put it past them migrating en masse to a game even on another platform that scratched the same itch with a new coat of paint.
 
RandomVince said:
I agree with this except for one disclaimer: new gen offers a new chance for new games. Last gen GTA was the equivalent of this generation's CoD. Before that it was stuff like LoZ and Final Fantasy.

People will want to keep the same friends, but I wouldn't put it past them migrating en masse to a game even on another platform that scratched the same itch with a new coat of paint.
Click to expand...

Community is a huge power over people. More so than any particular game. Live is absolutely the number one factor, COD or otherwise.
 
Vinci said:
Community is a huge power over people. More so than any particular game. Live is absolutely the number one factor, COD or otherwise.
Click to expand...

No disputes here, its a big issue. But most people in a community will also be multi-system owners and peer group pressure or a tipping point within it can cause a shift in time. Ive seen it happen before on a small scale, so its not implausible to happen on larger scales.

The impetus for Sony or MS or Nintendo to come up with a strong community based multiplayer game that has the draw of CoD should be high. Maybe something borne out of Warhawk or Socom with that kind of quality would do it if timed well at the start of the next gen. Something accessible, hell - it needn't even be a shooter. Just addictive and long lived.
 
Was going to make a thread on this to canvas wider opinion, after discussion in the WUST thread - but search found me this one.

I think it's an interesting discussion.

How much of a vendor lock-in effect does XBL have on the 360 installed base? I think a lot for certain demographics.

Will Sony be able to lure people away to PSN, assuming they keep it free and reach feature parity? No, probably not. Parity isn't really enough to overcome the barriers to switching.

And what effect does this have on the Wii U in trying to attract the demographics that have fueled the success of online multiplayer games this gen? I would say it's a major impediment to luring this audience - especially if they cannot at least reach feature parity with PSN.
 
gdt said:
I don't think it's due to XBLA all that much.

It's COD bros who only play COD and want to keep playing COD with the bros they've always played COD with.
Click to expand...

The way things are looking, CoD might not survive that deep into next-gen. There seems to be a lot more franchise fatigue floating around this time around in the lead-up to Black Ops 2's launch than there used to be.

I'm not saying BO2 will be a flop, not by any means, it'll sell millions. But I think the franchise has peaked.

Edit: But yeah, I agree with your point 100%. People are going to stick with the company they're with, mostly because their friends probably will. The only reason for the xbox crowd to switch, in my opinion, would be dissatisfaction with their current platform, and you're not going to find that in the CoD crowd.
 
Mister Negative said:
The way things are looking, CoD might not survive that deep into next-gen. There seems to be a lot more franchise fatigue floating around this time around in the lead-up to Black Ops 2's launch than there used to be.

I'm not saying BO2 will be a flop, not by any means, it'll sell millions. But I think the franchise has peaked.
Click to expand...

People said this leading into MW3 as well.
 
Papercuts said:
People said this leading into MW3 as well.
Click to expand...

Granted, but this is a Treyarch title. Their titles seem to be a bit more divisive than the IW ones.

But who am I kidding, people are going to be angry and insist that they're done with CoD right up until launch week when they wake up in a cold sweat the night before launch, hop in their cars, and drive to gamestop for the midnight launch.

Edit: As for the question the thread poses, specifically, I think achievements and the like are going to be a huge reason for xbox users to continue using microsoft products, and PS3 users to continue using Sony products. What the companies have done is allow gamers to build profiles that they're REALLY going to want to carry with them, especially if the trend of awarding players for having played past games and achieving certain milestones in them continues, a la systems like Halo Waypoint. After 4, 5 years of having these online profiles, they're not just gamertags anymore, but identities.
 
Mister Negative said:
The way things are looking, CoD might not survive that deep into next-gen. There seems to be a lot more franchise fatigue floating around this time around in the lead-up to Black Ops 2's launch than there used to be.

I'm not saying BO2 will be a flop, not by any means, it'll sell millions. But I think the franchise has peaked.
Click to expand...

We have people saying that ever year and yet a week after the game is out it's already sold an obscene amount.

CoD is CoD. People will jump on at release date it's the sort of game that doesn't need months of hype. The fact it's also a sequel to the more liked Black Ops will also help it along.

I can see all the people who skipped out on MW3 and went back to Black Ops coming over.
 
Mister Negative said:
Granted, but this is a Treyarch title. Their titles seem to be a bit more divisive than the IW ones.

But who am I kidding, people are going to be angry and insist that they're done with CoD right up until launch week when they wake up in a cold sweat the night before launch, hop in their cars, and drive to gamestop for the midnight launch.
Click to expand...

If anything I DID thing 3 would see a dip, since I know a lot of people that absolutely hated MW2. But yeah, it's a very odd thing to follow. I personally think BO2 will do just as well if not better than it already has been, but after this one it should get interesting.
 
Papercuts said:
If anything I DID thing 3 would see a dip, since I know a lot of people that absolutely hated MW2. But yeah, it's a very odd thing to follow. I personally think BO2 will do just as well if not better than it already has been, but after this one it should get interesting.
Click to expand...

I think the problem lies in the fact that there are two weird communities in the CoD playerbase, those that are fed-up with IW and their CoDs, and those that can't stand the Treyarch versions. They kind of alternate back and forth, but both are big enough that you really don't see a difference either way in the sales of each game.

As for another question the OP posed, I do think that Nintendo is going to start out at a disadvantage here. Although, I don't think it's as big as it might've been if it were another company. Nintendo has their rabid fanbase, and that might be enough. They're also going to get the early release bump if it turns out that the 720 and PS4 are a little further down the line.
 
Vinci said:
Um... until bandwidth caps are no longer a concern... a while. Also, as unimaginable as it may sound, a lot of people still buy their games at retail - and not only because of a lack of options.
Click to expand...

This. Until more ISP's either remove caps or up them substantially we're not going to see a massive switch to digital. I'm lucky in that my current ISP hasn't moved to caps yet, but I can't name a single friend that is in the same lucky boat.

That being said... If I can get it retail, I still buy retail generally. For me, there isn't a big draw to digital as of this moment. I readily admit I still like my material disc and paltry game manual and case, but another big point in favor of retail is price. Generally, the digital versions either cost the same or in many cases are higher! Equal pricing is the very minimum I'd expect to convince me digital is acceptable... But even then, for me the case and disk are worth a couple bucks as well.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Upcoming Video Game Releases: The Most Anticipated Titles of 2026 and Beyond
News 
0
286
Lunatic_Gamer replied
'Ragnarok console project' announced by publisher (linked to Ragnarok Online MMORPG)
4
229
cormack12 replied
Rumor: Alir: God of War Faye will be revealed in the upcoming State of Play
Rumor  3 4 5 6 7
340
2K
Moses85 replied
Playstation Upcoming State Of Play Theaters Food Menu
Rumor  2
85
1K
Dr. Suchong replied
Sony is unlikely to reverse its decision on physical discs as its digital transition has been in the works for "some time"
News  2 3 4 5
210
467
Fabieter replied
Top Bottom