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IDC: Consoles/discs to stay main revenue for "years to come"; Wii U 50M sold by 2016
- Thread starter shinobi602
- Start date
Can Crusher
Banned
They are gonna sell 50 million consoles in 3 years?
CosmicQueso
Member
Rational, reasonable, realistic. Well done analysts.
Oh my. Someone's not an analyst.
Oh my. Someone's not an analyst.
pieatorium
Member
WiiU prediction is pretty high, would need to beat the 360's best ever year for 3 years in a row
bigtroyjon
Member
Them thinking PS3 will have by far it's biggest holiday quarter ever says all I need to know about how credible they are.
Its not that bad a prediction BUT IDC, like most other 'analysts' of the VG market, doesn't have a great track record:
They also predicted the next Xbox in 2014 and the next PS in 2015, lol.
http://www.ibtimes.com/idc-predicts-wii-u-xbox-720-ps4-will-calm-games-industry-turbulence-302747
They also predicted the next Xbox in 2014 and the next PS in 2015, lol.
http://www.ibtimes.com/idc-predicts-wii-u-xbox-720-ps4-will-calm-games-industry-turbulence-302747
it's year-end 2016, so that's 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016: four years.
pieatorium
Member
ah yeah read it as 2015
thats still an average of around 11.5 mill a year assuming a shipment of around 3.5 million for this holiday.
Truckondo2.0
Member
They have to keep shipping discs. That's where they keep the DLC. 
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
by 2016? The games will be there for sure
Poimandres
Member
IDC is the source of that infamous prediction with the PS3 coming out on top? That's funny.
This seems a lot more reasonable, but really the old prediction chart should tell you everything you need to know about how much guess work goes into these predictions.
This seems a lot more reasonable, but really the old prediction chart should tell you everything you need to know about how much guess work goes into these predictions.
shinobi602
Member
Its not that bad a prediction BUT IDC, like most other 'analysts' of the VG market, doesn't have a great track record:
??
Could anyone really predict how this gen turned out? I mean no one really thought the Wii was going to destroy the competition and the 360 to dominate when the original Xbox had average sales at best...
If people were looking towards this gen and comparing it with last gen, there's no reason to think the PS3 wouldn't dominate given how the PS2 did.
MikeE21286
Member
Thought they were the ones who did thus graph. Lol thanks for posting.Its not that bad a prediction BUT IDC, like most other 'analysts' of the VG market, doesn't have a great track record:
They also predicted the next Xbox in 2014 and the next PS in 2015, lol.
http://www.ibtimes.com/idc-predicts-wii-u-xbox-720-ps4-will-calm-games-industry-turbulence-302747
That prediction is from 2008.
Edit: And that v
bigtroyjon
Member
If they don't know how things are going to turn out, why should we put any stock in the predictions in the op?
Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew
Banned
It's the thought that counts...
Shining Sunshine
Banned
Welp, they'll need to sell 50 million this year before the other systems thrash it.
Poimandres
Member
As soon as Sony announced "$599" it was pretty clear things weren't going to go down this path.
Arkam
Member
Thats the way I see it. We get this upcoming gen (Wiiu/Durango/Orbis) and then one more set of boxes 5-7 years later. After that I doubt we see anymore Dedicated gaming devices. By then, tech will be too small/cheap to not have it in every SmartTV/Tablet/Phone. MS/Sony/Nintendo may still be in teh picture butit will be more in a Steam like role only as a digital distobution service.
Just look at how far SmartTV/Tablet/Phones have gone in past 5 years and think where they will be in 10-15 years.
dragonflys545
Member
LMAO 50mil... They'd be lucky to sell more than 15mil with the line up of games coming out this year or the following.
shinobi602
Member
Really?
Pikmin 3
Rayman Legends
The Wonderful 101
Bayonetta 2 (possibly)
Lego City Undercover
Wii Fit U
Game & Wario
Whether you care about those titles or not, the Wii U already has great software lined up this year, and that's not counting anything yet to be announced.
Poimandres
Member
As good as those titles may end up being, can you see ANY of them besides maybe Wii Fit U shifting a bunch of systems?
Not that I agree with his doom and gloom 15 mill prediction.
shinobi602
Member
If Nintendo can get their fucking act together and market them well, I do believe they can have a good impact.
Poimandres
Member
They should drive the system along nicely, but I think they need one of the big guns to really hit their stride. You know, a Mario Kart or something.
Obviously titles like that are coming, it's just a matter of when.
theusedversion
Member
When did this happen? I don't remember reading about this on GAF. Was there a thread?
Jonnyboy117
Member
It's not so unlikely. Nintendo can be competitive in all three major markets instead of just two.
GillianSeed79
Member
The interesting take-away for me fom this article isn't the WiiU sales projections, it's the prediction that retail disc sales will magically increase with the release of the Sony and MS next-gen consoles. Despite WiiU's soft launch, at least Nintendo was smart enough to embrace digital distribution to some extent. Wasn't there a recent story about GameStop's retail sales being down but digital sales up like 40 percent or something. I have nothing against optical disc drives or anything. I often buy retail PC games. Digital distribution is just so conveinent and spurs a lot of impulse buys from me. I'm much more likely to buy a game from Steam or Amazon if I see a good deal on the internet rather driving out to the store in the hopes that they'll, A, have the game and, B, will price match.
Hard drives on consoles sucked at the start of this gen, meaning retail discs were still the only option for a lot of people. My PS3 still only has like a 40GB drive and I'm still getting by with a 60GB drive on my 360. I will be shocked if the new consoles don't have at least 400GB drives, especially considering the multi-media and non-gaming content that is standard these days. How anyone thinks next gen retail is not going to be a blood bath for anyone outside the mega publishers and Nintendo first party is beyond me.
Hard drives on consoles sucked at the start of this gen, meaning retail discs were still the only option for a lot of people. My PS3 still only has like a 40GB drive and I'm still getting by with a 60GB drive on my 360. I will be shocked if the new consoles don't have at least 400GB drives, especially considering the multi-media and non-gaming content that is standard these days. How anyone thinks next gen retail is not going to be a blood bath for anyone outside the mega publishers and Nintendo first party is beyond me.
KungFucius
King Snowflake
Their Wii prediction looks pretty decent. Big slow down in 2011.
JordanN
Banned
Mobile tech still can't match console tech 100%. And with current video games not being anywhere near photorealism, dedicated consoles can still have their place for the next 20 years or so.
Pachterballs
Banned
I said in other thread...
"what's LTD for gamecube?". I think lighting's not hit twice.
"what's LTD for gamecube?". I think lighting's not hit twice.
Can Crusher
Banned
Nintendo will really need to put pedal to the metal for the Wii U to take of like that. With Ps4 and Xbox coming, it's gonna be a rough ride for the Nintendo.
But IMO, the industry NEEDS a strong Nintendo.
But IMO, the industry NEEDS a strong Nintendo.
Zekra Dezivad
Member
Its not that bad a prediction BUT IDC, like most other 'analysts' of the VG market, doesn't have a great track record:
They also predicted the next Xbox in 2014 and the next PS in 2015, lol.
http://www.ibtimes.com/idc-predicts-wii-u-xbox-720-ps4-will-calm-games-industry-turbulence-302747
Woah!
2012
Useless Graph:
PS3+360 = 110m+40m = 150m
Wii = 105m
Total hardware: 255m
Reality:
PS3+360 = 77+76 = 153m
Wii = ~100m
Total hardware = ~253m
They were obviously wrong about the HD balance of power, but they menaged nearly a perfect projection about market share (HD vs Wii) and hardware numbers.