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Official October NPD prediction Thread - (DS vs PSP ad infinitum & more)

Well,

It's October. The holiday season is quickly approaching. A shitload of releases, the continuing saga of DS vs PSP, the great white hope of PSP GTA:LCS, the PS2 holding onto the $149 price point, will Castlevania ever be appreciated, and more .

It's time to ramp this baby back up again.

Here's a chance to dazzle us with your acumen.

NPD CONTEST & POINTS SYSTEM
A return of the points system. It’s my own little BCS ranking / RPI ranking for NPD predictions :D

Platforms covered: GCN, PS2, Xbox, NDS, GBA, PSP

Point System:
1) 25 points for getting Hardware positions correct. Maximum Points: 25
2) 20 points * (percentage of correct units for hardware system, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 120
3) 10 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 10 (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 100
4) 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each title, anything over 100% difference = 0 points) in your overall top 10. Maximum points: 100
5) 2 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 5 per platform (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 60 (10 for each platform)
6) 5 points * (percentage of correct units for each title in your overall top 5 per platform, anything over 100% different = 0 points. Also, any titles listed in the overall top 10 CAN NOT be counted, as they would be double counted). Maximum Points: 125
7) OVERALL TOP 10 Correct – 50 points Maximum Points: 50
8) 20 points * (percentage of correct overall software sales in dollars, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 20

Maximum Total Points: 600 points

Required Predictions
You must make the following predictions to qualify for the points contest

1) Hardware (within 10k) each system
2) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
3) Top 5 for each system w/units
4) Overall Software Sales for the month in dollars


THIS MONTHS CONSIDERATIONS
1) PSP vs DS round 8
2) GTA: LCS - Only a few days of availability, but did it do much of anything?
3) PS2 vs GBA Hardware - The heavyweights trying to hold onto the title.
4) Warriors, SOCOM 3, Shadow of the Collossus, RE4, Tony Hawk, Soul Calibur 3, Battlefield 2, SSX, Castlevania DS, LA Rush, & others
5) How have the past titles held on? Nintendogs, NBA Live, Madden, Burnout, etc


Some notable New Releases:
Week 4 - September- X-Men: Legends 2, Genji (PS2), Battalian Wars (GCN), Frantix (PSP), DK: King of Swing (GBA), We <3 Katamari, Tiger Woods, Ninja Gaiden Black, Marvel Nemesis: Rise of the Imperfects, Madden NFL 06 (PSP), Indigo Prophecy, Fable: Lost Chapters, Ultimate Spider-Man, GBA Micro

Week 5 - September - Tiger Woods (PSP), Trace Memory (DS), Suffering 2, NBA Live 06, NBA 2k6, Midway: Arcade 3, Lunar Dragon Song (DS), Lost in Blue (DS), Frogger, Far Cry: Instincts, DDR Extreme 2 (PS2), Capcom Classics, Top Spin 2 (PS2), Pokemon XD

Code:
[b]October Releases[/b]
[b]1st Week                      2nd Week                      3rd Week                           4th Week[/b]
Brothers In Arms: Earned      Serious Sam II                The Warriors                       The Sims 2
FIFA Soccer 06                L.A. Rush                     Stubbs the Zombie                  Nintendo DS Nintendogs Teal Bundle
Mega Man Zero 4 (DS)          Ty the Tasmanian Tiger - 3    GTA: The Trilogy                   Midway Arcade Treasures 3
Conflict: Global Terror       SSX On Tour                   GTA: Special Edition               Metroid Prime Pinball
NBA Live 06 (PSP)             SOCOM 3                       Fire Emblem                        Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories
Marvel Nemesis (PSP)          Romancing SaGa                Blitz The League                   Dance Dance Revolution Mario Mix
Halo 2 Triple Pack            Phoenix Wright (DS)           X-Men Legends II                   Call of Cthulhu
Digital Devil Saga 2          NCAA March Madness 06         World Poker Tour                   Battlefield 2: Modern Combat
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow   Marvel Nemesis (DS)           Tony Hawk's American Wasteland     Taito Legends
Doom 3: Resurrection of Evil  FIFA Soccer 06 (PSP)          Tony Hawk's American Sk8land       Spartan: Total Warrior
Virtua Tennis (PSP)           Devil Kings                   The Con (PSP)                      Soul Calibur III
Zoo Tycoon                                                  Spyro Shadow Legacy (DS)           Shrek SuperSlam
                                                            Sniper Elite                       Resident Evil 4
                                                            Shadow of the Colossus             Ratchet: Deadlocked
                                                            Jak X                              LEGO Star Wars (GCN)
                                                            Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi   Gunstar Super Heroes (GBA)
                                                            Dig Dug Digging Strike (DS)
                                                            Crash Tag Team Racing
                                                            Sponge Bob Square Pants
                                                            Shining Force Neo
                                                            Fable: The Lost Chapters
 

Dalthien

Member
Sonycowboy, don't you need to be willing to let us know the DS/PSP hardware numbers then? Not trying to be rude, I certainly appreciate all of the data that you've released for us, but you always start up these prediction threads, and then you leave us hanging for days or weeks sometimes to find out who actually had the best prediction. :)
 
Dalthien said:
Sonycowboy, don't you need to be willing to let us know the DS/PSP hardware numbers then? Not trying to be rude, I certainly appreciate all of the data that you've released for us, but you always start up these prediction threads, and then you leave us hanging for days or weeks sometimes to find out who actually had the best prediction. :)

Can't be helped. Hopefully CSFB will be more forthcoming. Last months numbers are known now, and I'll even give a bonus!

Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
sonycowboy said:
Can't be helped. Hopefully CSFB will be more forthcoming. The numbers are known now, and I'll even give a bonus!

Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)
The US is obviously smarter than Japan. :lol
 

Dalthien

Member
sonycowboy said:
Can't be helped. Hopefully CSFB will be more forthcoming. Last months numbers are known now, and I'll even give a bonus!

Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

I was just playing with you. I understand your position - and you usually give enough hints for us to get a good idea of the numbers anyway.

By the way, thanks for the Micro numbers!
 

GoutPatrol

Forgotten in his cell
sonycowboy said:
Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

OUCH. Looks like Nintendo isn't going to get the hipster crowd.

That crappy commercial they had didn't help either.
 
Alcibiades said:
Mario Mix will outsell RE4 (PS2)...

if not this last week of October then by the end of the holiday season...

I very much doubt that. RE4 is an incredible game and although I'm sure Mario Mix is very fun (as all DDR games are), I just can't see it selling more. It'll sell good, but nothing spectacular.
 

Link1110

Member
I don't much care about system sales, since PSP will keep beating DS in the west, since it has more wetern style games. But I'm looking more forward to seeing how much Phoenix Wright sold. Almost everyone on MBs that I've seen with a DS has that game, and all but one has loved it, so that's good word of mouth for it.I predict about 20k for it.
 

Alcibiades

Member
I have played both RE4 (GCN) and DDR: Mario Mix, and I can tell you, they are both incredible... but one is a new, fresh game while one has been out for a while. I think Mario Mix has the momentum, but I don't even think it will be that close.

we shall see though, I guess RE4 will have had months and months of good word of mouth that will help, but Mario Mix has the party fun + novelty factor...

Christmas is a good time for novelties... :D
 

Alcibiades

Member
I don't even want to deal with that point system... makes the BCS system look like child's play...

but I can give general predictions and lists...

sonycowboy, can you post both September 2005 and October 2004 if possible?
 

elostyle

Never forget! I'm Dumb!
Link1110 said:
I don't much care about system sales, since PSP will keep beating DS in the west, since it has more wetern style games. But I'm looking more forward to seeing how much Phoenix Wright sold. Almost everyone on MBs that I've seen with a DS has that game, and all but one has loved it, so that's good word of mouth for it.I predict about 20k for it.
You can tell that you're honest about not caring much :)
 

Trident

Loaded With Aspartame
sonycowboy said:
Can't be helped. Hopefully CSFB will be more forthcoming. Last months numbers are known now, and I'll even give a bonus!

Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

I'm confused. Is this total Sept NPD for all hardware? Wouldn't that be a huge number? I assume I'm misinterpreting what this equation means.
 
When are they released? Until when can I edit my post?

And Id suggest reposting last months hardware so we have something to go by. My memmory is a bit slow on how much the DS beat the PSP by.




(low blow)
 

Mook1e

Member
sonycowboy said:
"What's your prediction?"

"PAIN"
rockyanthologycap.jpg


Do I get any points?
 

Mook1e

Member
elostyle said:
You can tell that you're honest about not caring much :)
While DS stomped on PSP in sales in the UK (That's the west right?) and slid past PSP in the USA.
 

MrDaravon

Member
As always with the NPD threads, I post a few NPD numbers I need in hopes that someone here with the numbers will take pity on me and fill me in, at least on the ones where I'm only missing like one month of data :lol . Bold titles only need a month or two that's missing, which usually just wasn't posted here for those companies that month. I'd also REALLY like the Growlanser numbers, the WD numbers never ever get posted :(

GBA Breath of Fire LTD
GBA Breath of Fire 2 LTD
GBA CIMA The Enemy LTD
GBA Demikids Dark Version LTD
GBA Demikids Light Version LTD
GBA Gradius Galaxies LTD
GBA Lufia Ruins of Lore LTD
GBA Lunar Legend LTD
GBA Phantasy Star Collection LTD
GBA Shining Soul LTD
GBA Shining Soul 2 (Only need Apr 04 numbers, or LTD)
GBA Tactics Ogre LTD

GC Cubivore (Only need numbers for Sept 04)
GC Ikaruga (Need numbers for July 04-Apr 05, or LTD)


PS2 Atelier Iris Eternal Mana (Only need Sept 05)
PS2 Bard's Tale (Could only find numbers for the first two months, Nov & Dec 04)
PS2 Breath of Fire V (Only need Mar 05 numbers)
PS2 Castlevania Lament of Innocence LTD
PS2 Front Mission 4 (Only need Sep 04 numbers, or LTD)
PS2 Gradius III & IV LTD
PS2 Grandia 2 LTD
PS2 Growlanser Generations (Regular and Deluxe, could only find posted numbers for the first two months, Dec 04 & Jan 05)
PS2 La Pucelle Tactics (Need Jan 05, and Apr-Aug 05 or LTD)
PS2 Makai Kingdom (Only need Sept 05)
PS2 Okage Shadow King LTD
PS2 R-Type Final (Need Feb 04, Mar-04 & Sep 04, or LTD)
PS2 Shadow Hearts LTD
PS2 Shadow Hearts Covenant (Only need Aug 05 or LTD)
PS2 Unlimited SaGa LTD (Only need Sept 04 or LTD)

Xbox Bard's Tale (Could only find numbers for first two months, Nov & Dec 04)
Xbox Metal Gear Solid 2 Substance LTD
 

donny2112

Member
Can I put in a special request? If at all possible, can the hardware numbers for the DS+Nintendogs: Best Friends bundle be posted, too? Thanks, regardless. :)

Predictions


Hardware

PS2 - 232K
GBA - 180K
DS - 152K
PSP - 128K
Xbox - 100K
GCN - 92K


Top 10 Overall by Units

1. PS2 NBA Live '06 300K
2. PS2 SOCOM 3 230K
3. PSP Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories 210K
4. PS2 The Warriors 205K
5. XBX Doom 3 201K
6. PS2 Madden 2006 200K
7. PS2 Resident Evil 4 185K
8. GCN Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness 160K
9. PS2 Shadow of the Colossus 155K
10. XBX Halo Triple Pack 150K


Overall Software Sales for the Month in $
$395 million


Top Selling Games for each Platform

PS2

1. NBA Live '06 300K
2. SOCOM 3 230K
3. The Warriors 205K
4. Madden 2006 200K
5. Resident Evil 4 185K

Shadow of the Colossus 155K
Soul Calibur III 90K
Blitz: The League 80K
Jak X: Combat Racing 75K
Spongebob: Lights, Camera, Pants! 70K


GBA

1. Pokemon: Emerald 52K
2. Gunstar Super Heroes 40K
3. Lego Star Wars 25K
4. Mega Man Zero 4 22K
5. Disney Princess 20K


DS

1. Nintendogs 150K + 30K Best Friends
(Lab - 60K, Dach 50K, Chi - 40K)
2. Castlevania: DoS 40K
3. Metroid Prime Pinball 35K
4. Super Mario 64 DS 25K
5. Advance Wars: Dual Strike 20K

Trauma Center 15K
Phoenix Wright 8K (Has anyone else had trouble finding this game in normal retailers?)


PSP

1. Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories 210K
2. Madden 2006 70K
3. NBA Live '06 68K
4. Burnout Legends 40K
5. Virtua Tennis World Tour 35K


Xbox

1. Doom 3 201K
2. Halo Triple Pack 150K
3. NBA Live '06 110K
4. The Warriors 100K
5. NBA 2K6 90K


GCN

1. Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness 160K + 20K from bundle
2. Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance 90K (Should be 2.8 million, though :) )
3. DDR: Mario Mix 70K
4. Mario Superstar Baseball 65K
5. WWE: Day of Reckoning 2 50K


100K sellers by console

PS2 - 8
DS - 1
PSP - 1
XBX - 3
GCN - 1

Edit: Added in SOCOM 3 for PS2.
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
jamesinclair said:
When are they released? Until when can I edit my post?

And Id suggest reposting last months hardware so we have something to go by. My memmory is a bit slow on how much the DS beat the PSP by.




(low blow)
Thursday after the markets close is when it'll be released but we usually get the SW chart a day later.

September's HW
PS2 - 268,000
GBA - 185,000
DS - 168,000
PSP - 146,000
Xbox - 124,000
GCN - 108,000
 
donny2112 said:
Can I put in a special request? If at all possible, can the hardware numbers for the DS+Nintendogs: Best Friends bundle be posted, too? Thanks, regardless. :)

Predictions



Top 10 Overall by Units

1. PS2 NBA Live '06 300K
2. PSP Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories 210K
3. PS2 The Warriors 205K
4. XBX Doom 3 201K
5. PS2 Madden 2006 200K
6. PS2 Resident Evil 4 185K
7. GCN Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness 160K
8. PS2 Shadow of the Colossus 155K
9. XBX Halo Triple Pack 151K
10. PS2 NBA 2K6 150K

Top Selling Games for each Platform

PS2

1. NBA Live '06 300K
2. The Warriors 205K
3. Madden 2006 200K
4. Resident Evil 4 185K
5. Shadow of the Colossus 155K

Soul Calibur III 90K
Blitz: The League 80K
Jak X: Combat Racing 75K
Spongebob: Lights, Camera, Pants! 70K


Good job on being one of the few TRUE MEN who dare to predict :D

BTW,

SOCOM 2 sold 380,182 in it's first month in 2003 (which was a November, which does really bump up sales)
 

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy said:
Good job on being one of the few TRUE MEN who dare to predict :D

Thanks.

sonycowboy said:
BTW,

SOCOM 2 sold 380,182 in it's first month in 2003 (which was a November, which does really bump up sales)

D'oh! I just missed it when looking for PS2 games. I'd guess 230K since it came out fairly early in the month and seeing what you posted for SOCOM 2's first month sales. Too late to change my entry now, though, right? ;)
 
donny2112 said:
Thanks.



D'oh! I just missed it when looking for PS2 games. I'd guess 230K since it came out fairly early in the month and seeing what you posted for SOCOM 2's first month sales. Too late to change my entry now, though, right? ;)

Edits and predictions are fair game up to ~4:30PM Thursday.
 

Fuzzy

I would bang a hot farmer!
Alcibiades said:
sonycowboy, can you post both September 2005 and October 2004 if possible?
I already posted the September 2005 numbers, here are the October 2004 numbers.

GBA - 443,276
PS2 - 380,540
Xbox - 215,845
GCN - 108,832
 
Heres my hardware prediciton.

Maybe Ill add in software later. Maybe


PS2 - 321,000
GBA - 195,000
DS - 170,000
PSP - 165,000
Xbox - 130,000
GCN - 115,000
 

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
My hardware predictions:

PS2 - 325K
GBA - 190K
DS - 165K
PSP - 195K
Xbox - 120K
GCN - 105K
 

Amir0x

Banned
Just like before, I'm predicting death and destruction and a GTA:LCS which seriously underperforms compared to expectations in the US.

100-110k at most for it.
 

ziran

Member
sonycowboy said:
Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)
mmm...

i remember thinking how odd it was when reggie became a little defensive imo at the games summit q&a, when he was asked about gb micro. he was like '...will it last 3 months, 6 months or a year, we don't know...'.

certainly with the na sales and the recent uk figures it's underperforming in outside japan.

i have to wonder if it is down to price or is it something the public doesn't want? because in the uk it retails for the same as the gbasp.

maybe nintendo should've built in play yan and included a cheap sd card and tried to sell it as a games/media device (at its current price point).
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
Hardware predictions:

PS2 - 280k
DS - 210k
GBA - 190k
PSP - 170k
GCN - 125k
Xbox - 110k

Edit: PS2 numbers down to 280k (from 320k)
 
sonycowboy said:
Can't be helped. Hopefully CSFB will be more forthcoming. Last months numbers are known now, and I'll even give a bonus!

Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

GBA Mirco, pretty neat idea, $100 for it...not so neat.
 
Predictions


Hardware

PS2 - 240k
GBA - 190K
DS - 175K
PSP - 155K
GCN - 110K
XBX - 105K



Top 10 Overall by Units

1. PS2 NBA Live 06 - 291k
2. PS2 SOCOM 3 - 215k
3. PS2 Madden NFL 06 - 205k
4. GCN Pokemon XD - 183k
5. PSP GTA: Liberty City Stories - 165k
6. XBX Doom 3: Resurrection - 150k
7. PS2 Tony Hawk Wasteland - 142k
8. PS2 Dragon Ball Z: Tenkaichi - 138k
9. PS2 Shadow of the Colossus - 125K
10. PS2 Resident Evil 4 - 112k



Top Selling Games for each Platform

PS2

1. NBA Live 06 - 291K
2. SOCOM 3 - 215K
3. Madden NFL 06 - 205k
4. Tony Hawk Wasteland - 142k
5. Dragon Ball Z: Tenkaichi - 138k


DS

1. Nintendogs - 165K
(Lab - 55K, Dach 70K, Chi - 40K)
2. Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow - 52K
3. Super Mario 64 DS - 30K
4. Advance Wars: Dual Strike - 22k
5. Kirby: Canvas Curse - 18k


PSP

1. GTA: Liberty City Stories - 165k
2. NBA Live 06 - 60k
3. Madden NFL 06 - 53K
4. Burnout Legends - 44K
5. The Con - 32k


GCN

1. Pokemon XD - 183K
2. Mario Superstar Baseball - 88K
3. DDR: Mario Mix - 75K
4. Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - 63K
5. X-Men Legends II - 58k


XBX

1. Doom 3: Resurrection - 150k
2. NBA Live 06 - 115k
3. Halo Triple Pack - 102k
4. Brother's in Arms: Earned - 89k
5. Blitz: The League - 84k
 
Hardware

PS2 - 230k
XBX - 110k
GCN - 100k
DS - 160k
PSP - 150k
GBA - 180k

Overall Software Sales for the Month

$404 million

Top 10 Overall by Units

1. PS2 NBA Live '06 - 294k
2. PS2 SOCOM 3 - 200k
3. PS2 Madden 2006 - 195k
4. PS2 The Warriors - 180k
5. GCN Pokemon XD: Gale of Darkness - 175k
6. XBX Doom 3 - 158k
7. XBX Halo Triple Pack - 137k
8. PS2 NBA 2K6 - 128k
9. PS2 Resident Evil 4 - 120k
10. PSP Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories - 117k

Top Selling Games for each Platform

PS2

1. NBA Live '06 - 294k
2. SOCOM 3 - 200k
3. Madden 2006 - 195k
4. The Warriors - 180k
5. NBA 2K6 - 128k

XBX

1. Doom 3 - 158k
2. Halo Triple Pack - 137k
3. NBA Live 06 - 112k
4. Brother's in Arms: Earned - 82k
5. Blitz: The League - 78k

GCN

1. Pokemon XD - 175k
2. Mario Superstar Baseball - 86k
3. DDR: Mario Mix - 80k
4. Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance - 67k
5. WWE: Day of Reckoning 2 45k

DS

1. Nintendogs - 170k + 35k Best Friends
(Lab - 55K, Dach - 70K, Chi - 45K, Best Friends - 35k)
2. Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow - 58k
3. Advance Wars: Dual Strike - 30k
4. Super Mario 64 DS - 27k
5. Yu-Gi-Oh! - 19k

PSP

1. Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories - 117k
2. Madden 2006 - 67K
3. NBA Live '06 - 64K
4. Burnout Legends - 32K
5. Virtua Tennis World Tour - 28K

GBA

1. Pokemon: Emerald 55K
2. Gunstar Super Heroes 42K
3. Lego Star Wars 31K
4. Mega Man Zero 4 29K
5. Disney Princess 27K

(no idea here :D )
 

Link316

Banned
sonycowboy said:
Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

wow, that's even worse than I expected

my predictions

PS2 - 210K
GBA - 155K
DS - 125K
PSP - 125K
Xbox - 100K
GCN - 65K (Nintendo should keep the SSBM bundle imo)
 

argon

Member
sonycowboy said:
Sept NPD - GBA Micro = 22.5k (I'm dead serious here)

Hahah.. It should have come with Super Mario Bros. as a pack-in game. Hopefully they will release a favorable bundle for Christmas.
 

AirBrian

Member
PS2 - 300K
GBA - 175K
NDS - 150K
PSP - 150K
GCN - 120K
XBX - 110K

I think Mario Baseball + Pokemon will give GCN a little push in hardware. Other than that, nothing too exciting.
 

Scotch

Member
PS2 - 250k
XBX - 110k
GCN - 100k

GBA - 180k
NDS - 160k
PSP - 155k

By the way, wasn't september a 5 week month? So october is a 4 week month I assume?
 
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