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Official November 2005 NPD prediction Thread - (360,360,360, is PSP Dead?)

S

sonycowboy

Member
NPD is out next Thursday, December 8th. I will try to get last months PSP numbers out ASAP if I can. I feel pretty confident that the numbers will make it out next month.


360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360

Well,

It's November. The holiday season is here. The frenzy causing 360 launch, a shitload of releases, the continuing saga of DS vs PSP, Mario Kart DS, PSP GTA:LCS, the PS2 holding onto the $149 price point, and more .


Here's a chance to dazzle us with your acumen.

NPD CONTEST & POINTS SYSTEM
A return of the points system. It’s my own little BCS ranking / RPI ranking for NPD predictions

Platforms covered: Xbox 360, GCN, PS2, Xbox, NDS, GBA, PSP

Point System:
1) 25 points for getting Hardware positions correct. Maximum Points: 25
2) 20 points * (percentage of correct units for hardware system, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 140
3) 10 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 10 (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 100
4) 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each title, anything over 100% difference = 0 points) in your overall top 10. Maximum points: 100
5) 2 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 5 per platform (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 70 (10 for each platform)
6) 5 points * (percentage of correct units for each title in your overall top 5 per platform, anything over 100% different = 0 points. Also, any titles listed in the overall top 10 CAN NOT be counted, as they would be double counted). Maximum Points: 175
7) OVERALL TOP 10 Correct – 50 points Maximum Points: 50
8) 20 points * (percentage of correct overall software sales in dollars, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 20

Maximum Total Points: 680 points

Required Predictions
You must make the following predictions to qualify for the points contest

1) Hardware (within 10k) each system
2) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
3) Top 5 for each system w/units
4) Overall Software Sales for the month in dollars


THIS MONTHS CONSIDERATIONS
1) 360 launch; PDZ, Call of Duty, PGR3, Madden 360, Condemned, etc
2) DS vs PSP - Time for a DS knockout of the PSP?
2) GTA: LCS - Will a full month make a difference?
3) PS2 vs GBA Hardware - The heavyweights trying to hold onto the title.
4) Mario Kart, GUN, COD: Big Red One, Dragon Warrior, and more
5) How have the past titles held on? Nintendogs, Madden, SOCOM, & more

BTW, Did anyone count up the points from last months? I know you can't calculate the PSP HW, but it can be done without that. And there's only like < 10 people that actually post all of the required numbers.
 
You may as well remove PSP from the prediction threads.

To spite the Speevy I will make the following bold prediction.

The GCN will outsell (by very little) the XBOX
 
After the 300-400K prediction, I wouldn't even venture a guess.

Prediction: Sony fans bittersweet. (PSP then PS2)
MS fans just bitter because there are no units.
Nintendo fans lament the Gamecube's poor sales but possibly celebrate a DS victory.
 
koam said:
You may as well remove PSP from the predictions.
Click to expand...

If it's not available, we'll just name the winner without them. It's only one extra number to post. Plus, with the "spectacularly bad" PSP sales reported, I don't see how they won't be reported.
 
PSP: 312k
X360: 326k
GC: 209k
XBOX: 137k
DS: 522k
PS2: 687k
GBA: 360k

The others are way too bothersome to guess.
 
Striek said:
PSP: 312k
X360: 326k
GC: 209k
XBOX: 137k
DS: 522k
PS2: 687k

The others are way too bothersome to guess.
Click to expand...

Last November:

PS2 695,876 (shortage)
XBX 708,097 (shortage)
GCN 350,155 (no shortage ;) )
GBA 1,117,175
NDS 479,695
 
sonycowboy said:
If it's not available, we'll just name the winner without them. It's only one extra number to post. Plus, with the "spectacularly bad" PSP sales reported, I don't see how they won't be reported.
Click to expand...

I wasn't being serious :p

You should however mention Black Friday and that hardware sales spike in November in the original post.
 
koam said:
I wasn't being serious :p

You should however mention Black Friday and that hardware sales spike in November in the original post.
Click to expand...

Novembers last week is ~almost always Black Friday week.
 
WHAT THE FUCK. I JUST DID A SEGA SALES THREAD. DAMNIT.

Anyway,

PSP: 385,000
DS: 435,000
PS2: 700,000
Xbox: 410,000
GC: 270,000
360: 375,000
GBA: 800,000

Shadow the Hedgehog (three systems): 300,000 :(
Sonic Rush: 60,000
Mario Kart DS: 300,000
GTA LCS: 400,000

Call of Duty 2 360: 270,000
Perfect Dark Zero: 250,000
 
Besides GIGA pack and Mario Kart DS bundle, any other noteworthy bundles for the systems? Gamecube is bundled with Mario Party 7, or what? I can't keep track.

Anyway, I expect that PSP will do pretty poorly without any big games to back it up. GTA:LCS will be the lead game again, though. I'll try to be optimistic and say 350k, but imo it's gonna be REALLY low at 280k.

NDS will be one of the better selling systems, with Mario Kart, the virtual pet game and *shudder* people getting ready for the abysmal Animal Crossing. 515k?

GCN is gonna be totally flatlined, 265k

Xbox is gonna be doing well on shortages of 360, but still not spectacular. Let's make it funny, at 360k.

And the big one - 360 - I'm gonna go high[er] and say 412k.

PS2, hm, 675k

GBA... 825k
 
sonycowboy said:
Last November:

PS2 695,876 (shortage)
XBX 708,097 (shortage)
GCN 350,155 (no shortage ;) )
GBA 1,117,175
NDS 479,695
Click to expand...
What.
Crap.
Thats a lotta units.
Oh well, I'll stick with my predictions, times, they are a-changin'
Edited in GBA though.
 
Amir0x said:
Besides GIGA pack and Mario Kart DS bundle, any other noteworthy bundles for the systems? Gamecube is bundled with Mario Party 7, or what? I can't keep track.
Click to expand...

Bundles that we still had in November:

SSBM (GC)
Mario Party 7 (GC)
Pokemon XD (GC)
GigaPack (PSP)
Nintendogs (DS)
Mario Kart (DS), though this just came out yesterday.
 
Well this is going to be hard.

1.) PS2 - 555,500
2.) DS - 430,250
3.) X360 - 401,000
4.) PSP - 310,000
5.) GCN - 250,000
6.) XBX - 249,000

Mario Kart DS - 290,000
Sonic Rush - 35,000
Tony Hawk: Sk8e - 17,000 (Bomba)
Mario Luigi 2 - 20,000 (1 Day sale?)

Perfect Dark Zero - 210,000
Call of Duty 2 - 215,000
PGR3 - 155,000

Grand Theft Auto: LCS - 210,000
Need for Speed: MW - 70,000

Mario Party 7 - 130,000

Dragon Quest 8 - 45,000 (no idea)
Socom 3 - 125,000
Resident Evil 4 - 75,000
 
koam said:
You may as well remove PSP from the prediction threads.

To spite the Speevy I will make the following bold prediction.

The GCN will outsell (by very little) the XBOX
Click to expand...



That doesn't bother me. I used to hope for such a scenario. The Gamecube doesn't actually deserve to outsell the Xbox right now. But then again, the Xbox doesn't have any big releases either, so...


Anyway, on topic, I will make a prediction.


Xbox 360: 365K
PS2: 850K
PSP: 300K
NDS: 385K
Xbox: 250K
GCN: 230K
GBA: 780K
 
Question before I make predictions - Will the copies of MK DS that were included in the Red DS bundle be counted into the MK totals, or no?


Also, if sonycowboy or ANYBODY has these numbers and could help me out that'd be great. Bunkum posted them for me in last month's thread, but he posted numbers from the wrong year, but he hasn't been on since (or didn't see my reply post).

GBA Shining Soul 2 (Only need April 2004)
PS2 Front Mission 4 (Only need September 2004)
PS2 Unlimited SaGa LTD (Only need September 2004)

Also if anybody has these numbers I'd love you forever, if not I'm going to give up on these, I can't find them anywhere (I've already given up on the older title LTD's I really wanted like Okage, Phantasy Star Collection, etc):

GC Ikaruga (Need numbers for July 04 through Apr 05, or LTD)
PS2 La Pucelle Tactics (Need Jan 05, and Apr 05 through Aug 05 or LTD)
PS2 R-Type Final (Need Feb 04, Mar 04, & Sep 04, or LTD)
 
Well here's my hardware predictions for now:
GBA 625K
DS 410K
ps2 550K
psp 280K
GC 240K
xbox 210K
x360 360K

I think the Game Boy will retain it's crown because it's the only hardware that retails for less than $100 and will go down very well in the gift giving season. I think the DS will make up for much of the slack simply because not only is the price still pretty good, but it also has a very strong software release list and the dogs will maintain their strength. The psp will suffer because of the high price and no releases to counter the DS and having to rely on GTA:LCS. I think current gen consoles will be down across the board. With the ps2 the big culprit is that the price point is starting to bite and with it lacking the benefit of the new hardware revision and GTA this time round it will struggle compared to last year. The xbox will collapse because of the 360 and no Halo 2 and the GC will also struggle as the avalanche of hardware options will see it sidelined what with there being no big software.
 
SailorDaravon said:
Question before I make predictions - Will the copies of MK DS that were included in the Red DS bundle be counted into the MK totals, or no?


Also, if sonycowboy or ANYBODY has these numbers and could help me out that'd be great. Bunkum posted them for me in last month's thread, but he posted numbers from the wrong year, but he hasn't been on since (or didn't see my reply post).

GBA Shining Soul 2 (Only need April 2004)
PS2 Front Mission 4 (Only need September 2004)
PS2 Unlimited SaGa LTD (Only need September 2004)

Also if anybody has these numbers I'd love you forever, if not I'm going to give up on these, I can't find them anywhere (I've already given up on the older title LTD's I really wanted like Okage, Phantasy Star Collection, etc):

GC Ikaruga (Need numbers for July 04 through Apr 05, or LTD)
PS2 La Pucelle Tactics (Need Jan 05, and Apr 05 through Aug 05 or LTD)
PS2 R-Type Final (Need Feb 04, Mar 04, & Sep 04, or LTD)
Click to expand...

Make a qualifying prediction post (with an actual attempt at doing good numbers, and I'll get you the LTD numbers, I'll even get you Okage & PSC)
 
sonycowboy said:
Make a qualifying prediction post (with an actual attempt at doing good numbers, and I'll get you the LTD numbers, I'll even get you Okage & PSC)
Click to expand...

Did November 2005 end last week or does it end this week? There's more November than December in this week.
 
Sonycowboy, can you please please please pleeeeeeeeease give us the latest GC bundle numbers? MKDD, MP, SMS and now SSBM, and Pokemon XD? It would make GC predictions much easier. :D Anywho... just basic rounding:

PS2: 740K
GC: _________ (waiting for bundle numbers, if not gotten, then I'll come up with something)
XBOX: 190K
360: 415K
GBA: 900K
NDS: 440K
PSP: 360K (very unsure about this)
 
sonycowboy said:
Make a qualifying prediction post (with an actual attempt at doing good numbers, and I'll get you the LTD numbers, I'll even get you Okage & PSC)
Click to expand...
Hey, if I make a qualifying prediction will you give me the psp October US numbers?
 
heidern said:
Hey, if I make a qualifying prediction will you give me the psp October US numbers?
Click to expand...


I'm working on it. But go ahead and make the post. If I do get the OK, I'll only PM those that make a qualifying post.

GAF, predictions are not a privilege, they're a responsibility!

I'll be interested to see what the high and low 360 predictions are.
 
Something to chew over - Sony's prediction for the Holiday season:

Posted on 20 Oct 2005 # Reuters

Sony expects to sell 2.5 mln-3 mln PSPs this holiday season

SAN FRANCISCO: Sony Corp. plans to sell between 2.5 million and 3 million PlayStation Portable handheld video game devices in its first North American holiday season, the head of Sony Computer Entertainment America said.

''We're going to try to double the installed base between now and the end of the year,'' Kaz Hirai, Sony Computer Entertainment America president and chief executive, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

Hirai said the company had sold about 2.3 million PSPs in North America as of the end of September.

About the size of a paperback, the PSP can be used as a photo viewer and also plays movies and digital music. It debuted in late March in the United States.

The company also said it would begin offering a PSP Giga Pack for $299. The PSP bundle will hit stores in time for the holidays and include various accessories such as a 1-gigabyte memory stick, which can store about 30 hours of music. Sony will continue to sell its $249 PSP Value Pack with a 32-megabyte memory stick which holds the equivalent of one to two albums of music.

The PSP along with other handheld game players, such as Nintendo Co. Ltd's Game Boy Advance SP and DS, have driven game sales and helped offset the impact of a slump in console game sales amid a transition to next-generation consoles from Sony, Microsoft Corp. and Nintendo.

U.S. video game hardware and software sales were $10 billion in 2004.

Hirai also said Sony is expecting to sell 2.5 million to ''a tad below 3 million'' units of its industry-leading PlayStation 2 console in North America between now and the end of 2005.

That machine will compete with Microsoft's new Xbox 360, which is slated for a Nov. 22 North American release.
Click to expand...

:-\
 
DS = 400K
PSP = 350K (I believe GTA will sky rocket sales)
GBA = 300K
GCN = 150K
XBX = 200K
PS2 = 500K
XBX360 = 475K

Mario Kart DS: 250K
GTA: LCS = 300K (I would'nt doubt it)
Tony Hawk: AFS = 100K
Castlevania DS = 100K
Burnout PSP = 50K

It's impossible that the DS will knock out the PSP. Impossible. Not now. Fall of next year? MAYBE. But both handhelds are only in 1 year of their life cycle. Look here in America, though the DS (now) has so many great games, the PSP hasn't lagged much far behind. Besides, did'nt the PSP outsell the DS for like 5-6 months before Nintendogs came here in the states?

NA developers will support the PSP, and sooner or later the handheld will have exclusive content that can't be found anymore. Only way, honestly, I can see the DS shutting down the PSP once and for all, is that Mario Bros DS and Pokemon DS each sell in excees of 5 million units and sell many many DS'ses, and even then, tough call. The PSP is just so loves here in the states, and it isn't even all about the games (the games are excellent, I'm not implying otherwise), the PSP has all that snazzy media functions that are sure to bring the tech crowd, the casual gamer, and anymore folk wanting PS2-able games on a handheld.
 
Speevy said:
So 2 million PSP's in December then?
Click to expand...

We've actually been told by higherups at corporate to pimp PSPs to people who want the 360.

They also told us not to disparage Microsoft even though the shortage.

Yeah.
 
Anybody know if the copies of Mario Kart in the DS bundle count toward software totals or not? Also, anybody have a site/list of the titles (or at least major ones) out this month? I know I'm forgetting a couple.
 
i'm only gonna say that besides 360 numbers are gonna be low all around. i'm thinking sub 250-300k for ps2, xbox and GC. There are literally STACKS of these things at stores going unmoved.
 
Speevy said:
So 2 million PSP's in December then?
Click to expand...

:lol :lol :lol

Yeah, I don't know who the hell it was at Sony that thought a price raise was a good idea, but whoever it was, they should be fired.
 
Ok, here goes nothing.

Xbox 360: 345k
PS2: 660K
GC: 250K
Xbox: 210k
GBA: 610K
DS: 415K
PSP: 320K

Perfect Dark: 150K
Call of Duty 2: 185k
PGR 3: 200K

Mario Kart DS: 290K
Sonich Rush: 90k
Nintendogs: 260k

GTA LCS: 310k
 
Liquid said:
i'm only gonna say that besides 360 numbers are gonna be low all around. i'm thinking sub 250-300k for ps2, xbox and GC. There are literally STACKS of these things at stores going unmoved.
Click to expand...


:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

Speevy said:
So 2 million PSP's in December then?
Click to expand...

US != North America.
 
Not going to make any predictions yet, but it seems like Sony may want to majorly push the PSP in December. Best Buy had a retailer info packet go out, and it says each store is going to receive an average of 208 PSP systems in December alone.
 
Ill add in the Xbox 360 numbers as soon as I go find my prediction in the official xbox 360 prediction thread.

Ill also be adding in software as I think of them.

PS2: 850,000
GBA: 650,000
DS: 435,000
PSP: 345,000
GC: 320,000
Xbox: 310,000

Xbox 360: ____


Shadow the Hedgehog GC version: 172,000
Shadow PS2 version: 125,000
Shadow Xbox version: 98,000

Harry Potter PS2: 320,000
Harry Potter GC: 190,000
Harry Potter Xbox: 170,000
Harry GBA: 190,000
Harry DS: 48,000
Harry PSP: Released? If so, 45,000

Total: 395,000

Portable fun:
Mario Kart DS: 250,000
GTA LCS: 220,000
Sonic Rush: 65,000
THAW: 65,000
NFS: Most Wanted DS: 22,000


Xbox 360:
Madden Xtreme: 390,000
Perfect Dark Zero: 225,000
Kameo: 155,000
 
Mrbob said:
Not going to make any predictions yet, but it seems like Sony may want to majorly push the PSP in December. Best Buy had a retailer info packet go out, and it says each store is going to receive an average of 208 PSP systems in December alone.
Click to expand...

My god, it's not like they're flying off the shelves ATM. Someone is going to get fired for this...
 
jamesinclair said:
Harry Potter PS2: 320,000
Harry Potter GC: 190,000
Harry Potter Xbox: 170,000
Harry GBA: 190,000
Harry DS: 48,000
Harry PSP: Released? If so, 45,000
Click to expand...

Holy shit, have the Harry Potter games been selling that well? Jesus, that messes up my estimates now :lol
 
sonycowboy said:
US != North America.
Click to expand...
They would still have to move ~2 million units in the US if the previous numbers are any indication.

NPD had about 2 million PSPs sold in the US around October, while the stated NA total was 2.3 million.

If they hope to move 2.5-3 million PSPs from October to January, they will have to sell ~2 million units in the USA and 300-500K units in the rest of NA. (Unless October's sales were so great)
 
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