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September 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes October 14th

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U, as of October 4th, 2014, 19:30 GMT

Best sellers chart

Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
PS4 ($59.99) - 5th | PS4 Digital Code ($59.99) - 53rd
One ($59.99) - 15th

NBA 2K15
PS4 ($59.96) - 6th
One ($59.96) - 16th

PS4 ($399) - 8th

Hyrule Warriors ($59.99) - 12th

PS4 +Destiny ($449) - 14th

Alien: Isolation
PS4 ($59.95) - 18th
One ($59.95) - 73rd

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U + its sexiness, the GC controller ($99.99) - 19th

FIFA 15
PS4 ($59.96) - 21st
One ($59.96) - 139th (PS3 - 40th - and 360 - 42nd - higher)

Xbox One ($399) - 36th

Mario Kart 8 ($48.15) - 41st

The Last of Us: Remastered ($49.99) - 45th

DriveClub ($59.96) - 46th

Destiny
PS4 ($59.16) - 48th (360 - 37th - is higher)
One ($59.28) - 55th

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($59.99) - 56th

Forza Horizon 2 ($59.96) - 65th

Madden NFL 15 (Standard Edition)
One ($44.99; only 3 in stock; sold by third party) - 66th
PS4 ($49.99) - 71st

The Evil Within
PS4 ($59.96) - 68th
One ($59.96) - 191st

GTAV
PS4 ($59.99) - 70th
One ($59.99) - 128th

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Day Zero Edition
One ($59.99) - 77th
PS4 ($59.99) - 78th

Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 ($55; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 84th
One ($49.99; sold by third party) - 206th

Assassin's Creed: Unity
PS4 ($59.96) - 86th
One ($59.96) - 166th

Holy Bayonetta 2 ($59.96) - 92nd

Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth
 
G

GamerJM

Banned
Mpl90 said:
Amazon.com, PS4 v.s. One v.s. Wii U, as of October 4th, 2014, 19:30 GMT

Best sellers chart

Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor
PS4 ($59.99) - 5th | PS4 Digital Code ($59.99) - 53rd
One ($59.99) - 15th

NBA 2K15
PS4 ($59.96) - 6th
One ($59.96) - 16th

PS4 ($399) - 8th

Hyrule Warriors ($59.99) - 12th

PS4 +Destiny ($449) - 14th

Alien: Isolation
PS4 ($59.95) - 18th
One ($59.95) - 73rd

Super Smash Bros. for Wii U + its sexiness, the GC controller ($99.99) - 19th

FIFA 15
PS4 ($59.96) - 21st
One ($59.96) - 139th (PS3 - 40th - and 360 - 42nd - higher)

Xbox One ($399) - 36th

Mario Kart 8 ($48.15) - 41st

The Last of Us: Remastered ($49.99) - 45th

DriveClub ($59.96) - 46th

Destiny
PS4 ($59.16) - 48th (360 - 37th - is higher)
One ($59.28) - 55th

Halo: The Master Chief Collection ($59.99) - 56th

Forza Horizon 2 ($59.96) - 65th

Madden NFL 15 (Standard Edition)
One ($44.99; only 3 in stock; sold by third party) - 66th
PS4 ($49.99) - 71st

The Evil Within
PS4 ($59.96) - 68th
One ($59.96) - 191st

GTAV
PS4 ($59.99) - 70th
One ($59.99) - 128th

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare - Day Zero Edition
One ($59.99) - 77th
PS4 ($59.99) - 78th

Wolfenstein: The New Order
PS4 ($55; sold by third party fulfilled by Amazon) - 84th
One ($49.99; sold by third party) - 206th

Assassin's Creed: Unity
PS4 ($59.96) - 86th
One ($59.96) - 166th

Holy Bayonetta 2 ($59.96) - 92nd

Note: This is the hourly chart, the one changing every hour of every day, not the one relative to the whole past week / month / year. While weekly / monthly charts allow us to see how things have been up to now, hourly charts could help us in seeing what could be the incoming sales trends. But Amazon.com charts still need to be filtered and rightfully weigthed, you can't take literally everything they say as the exact truth
Click to expand...

What are the CoD AW positions for 360/PS3?
 
P

Phoenician_Viking

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)


So I would be wary of any predictions that approach or exceed 700K.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see if PS4's 400$ price tag will sell more than PS3 300$ Price tag.
 
T

Tubie

Member
[360] 50k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 300k

I think we'll see some PR from both Sony and MS for September sales, as they both probably did pretty good thanks to Destiny.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Blanquito said:
Thanks as always Abdiel.

Donny, small correction in the OP: do you mean August was 4 weeks instead of "July was 4 weeks"?
Click to expand...

Yep. At least got the "5 weeks" part right. :) Thanks!

Aquamarine's part is updated, too.

Aquamarine said:
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)
Click to expand...

PS2 - It was the PS2 and after the drop by $100 in May
PS3 - First PS3 Slim month and $100 drop for new model
Wii - It was the Wii and after the drop by $50 that month

[PS4] 450K
[XB1] 250K
[3DS] 175K
[WIU] 75K
[360] 50K
[PS3] 30K
 
T

theprodigy

Member
preliminary predictions:

[PS4] 480k
[XB1] 275k
[3DS] 135k
[WIU] 77k
[360] 66k
[PS3] 40k

1st edit: XB1 250k->255k, PS3 35k->40k
2nd edit: PS4 444k->468k
3rd edit: PS4 468k->480k, XB1 255k->275k
 
A

Akai__

Member
[360] 22k
[XB1] 155k
[PS3] 17k
[PS4] 425k
[3DS] 86k
[WIU] 97k

Edit, because I had a typo in the PS4 prediction.
 
T

Trust me. I'm a PhD

Member
My first one since joining Gaf proper; wish me luck^^

[PS4] - 600K
[XB1] - 315k
[3DS] - 145k
[WIU] - 61k 
[360] - 60k
[PS3] - 40k

Thought process: The only gauge we have as to the PS4 Destiny bundle is that it has out sold every single SKU of Xbox1 on Amazon. But with both the Titan Fall and Madden SKUs disappearing from Amazon before they did at retail, it is a little hard to say how well it did in real numbers. But what has been impressive about it has been its legs and ability to continue to sell very well even after Destiny solo left the charts. Heck, it is still in the top 15 and never left even into October. So, my guess is it did very well on top of the regular PS4 black.
Xbox1 has ranked its highest since March and Titan Fall. Hence the sales improvement^^
3DS will start to get its Smash boost about a week or two leading up to launch, so bump for him too^^
Wii U has HW do well, but I think selling to current consumers, not bringing in a whole lot of new blood.
PS3 got a bundle and 360 is still a solid little thing going into Destiny month, so little bumps for both^^

All subject to change!!!!^^

Edit 1: Bumped 3DS a little higher. I knew Smash was released first week October, but did not put 2 and 2 together on this being a five week tracking period.
 
C

chithanh

Banned
[360] 57K
[3DS] 105K
[PS3] 31K
[PS4] 465K
[WIU] 71K
[XB1] 232K

I made the baseless assumption that PS4 demand is normally 58k/week. Some people however held off buying PS4s because they wanted the white model / Destiny Bundle.

Since April, PS4 sold 1043k with 175k waiting for Destiny. Together with this month's 290k I'll say that 465k bought a PS4 (ie. weekly sales doubled from ~46k to ~93k).
The rest of the bunch just continues to follow the weekly sales trajectories from previous months.

Aquamarine said:
Highest September results ever achieved:


PS2 - 532K (September 2002)

PS3 - 492K (September 2009)

Wii - 687K (September 2008)


So I would be wary of any predictions that approach or exceed 700K.
Click to expand...
Were those 5 week months or 4 week months? 700k in a 5 week month would be equivalent to 560k in a 4 week month.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
chithanh said:
Were those 5 week months or 4 week months? 700k in a 5 week month would be equivalent to 560k in a 4 week month.
Click to expand...

They're all five week months.

PS2 figure: 01 Sep 2002 - 05 Oct 2002 (35 days)

Wii figure: 31 Aug 2008 - 04 Oct 2008 (35 days)

PS3 figure: 30 Aug 2009 - 03 Oct 2009 (35 days)

PS4 figure: 31 Aug 2014 - 04 Oct 2014 (35 days)

As a general rule, year-to-year comparisons almost always compare the same time periods, unless otherwise noted.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Snapshot of Amazon Oct rankings (since yesterday was the last day of NPD).

[1] SSB 3DS
[5] Shadow of Mordor PS4
[6] NBA 2K15 PS4
[8] PS4
[9] PS4 Camera (price drop really helped, didn't it?)
[11] Shadow of Mordor XB1
[13] PS4+Destiny
[15] Hyrule Warriors
[16] NBA 2K15 XB1
[22] FFT0
[31] XB1
[61] Forza Horizon 2 XB1
[83] Bayonetta 2 WiiU
[99] 360

Same disclaimers as my previous Amazon post.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
So anybody think the 360 has a shot at beating the Wii U for September?

Wii U has Hyrule Warriors and Disney Infinity 2.0 as its only September software releases I think, but has two new bundles with Mario games packed in albeit only 9 days of tracking.

360 has NHL, Destiny, Naruto, Disney Infinity 2.0, Fifa, and Forza Horizon 2 and I guess technically that COD bundle not that I think that would do much
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So anybody think the 360 has a shot at beating the Wii U for September?

Wii U has Hyrule Warriors and Disney Infinity 2.0 as its only September software releases I think, but has two new bundles with Mario games packed in albeit only 9 days of tracking.

360 has NHL, Destiny, Naruto, Disney Infinity 2.0, Fifa, and Forza Horizon 2 and I guess technically that COD bundle not that I think that would do much
Click to expand...

I think it'll be super close. Wii U should pull slightly ahead, but hey, at least it'll be ahead of the PS3.
I hope
 
D

donny2112

Member
SwiftDeath said:
So anybody think the 360 has a shot at beating the Wii U for September?
Click to expand...

360 is strongly on its way out, and Microsoft seems fine with that, since they're not in a hurry to drop the price on last gen models. Wii U will probably hold (weekly averages) for the month since Hyrule Warriors and the bundles wouldn't do much of anything on their own but just getting the system's name out there to remind people "Hey, Nintendo's got this new system you don't own!" is bound to help some. :lol
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Did really well last month let's see if I can't keep that trend going this month too.

[PS4] 429K
[XB1] 281K
[3DS] 117K
[WIU] 71K
[360] 56K
[PS3] 33K
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Welfare said:
I think it'll be super close. Wii U should pull slightly ahead, but hey, at least it'll be ahead of the PS3.
I hope
Click to expand...

It would really be surprising for the Wii U to be under the PS3 in my opinion even with the PS3 Destiny bundle and co-marketing. I think it will be close between 360 and Wii U as well hence the question although I guess I fall more to Wii U ahead but maybe I'm too optimistic on Wii U :\

donny2112 said:
360 is strongly on its way out, and Microsoft seems fine with that, since they're not in a hurry to drop the price on last gen models. Wii U will probably hold (weekly averages) for the month since Hyrule Warriors and the bundles wouldn't do much of anything on their own but just getting the system's name out there to remind people "Hey, Nintendo's got this new system you don't own!" is bound to help some. :lol
Click to expand...

You're probably right, perhaps the comparison will be an interesting case of what strong 3rd party support can bring to the table as we see how close the 360 can get
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Is it feasible to expect PS4 to break the all-time record for best September sales? This early in the generation, with this price point?
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
It is not reasonable to expect PS4 to beat the all-time high record for September considering its baseline and first year on the market
 
C

Cole Slaw

Banned
jryi said:
Is it feasible to expect PS4 to break the all-time record for best September sales? This early in the generation, with this price point?
Click to expand...
I don't think so because this price point has been constant and we haven't heard of it breaking any sales records in the preceding months.

I think that a constant price advantage would have made things more feasible, however.
 
J

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Cole Slaw said:
I don't think so because this price point has been constant and we haven't heard of it breaking any sales records in the preceding months.
Click to expand...

On the other hand, there is the Destiny effect and a white console, which combined could do something.

But yeah, I'm skeptical of it even breaking 500k, but there are some rather high guesses in this thread. I wonder, what the production numbers are at the moment. And it's going to be interesting to see, if Sony has something special planned for holiday season.
 
Coulomb_Barrier

Coulomb_Barrier

Member
I wonder if the White Destiny PS4 hardware sales are enough to stretch the consoles lead to 1 million over the XB1 in the US?

Didn't PS4 have a 700k advantage? Hitting over 500k in September would give it a chance of doing that if I'm right.
 
C

Cole Slaw

Banned
jryi said:
On the other hand, there is the Destiny effect and a white console, which combined could do something.

But yeah, I'm skeptical of it even breaking 500k, but there are some rather high guesses in this thread. I wonder, what the production numbers are at the moment. And it's going to be interesting to see, if Sony has something special planned for holiday season.
Click to expand...

I think people are either being conservative with their PS4 estimates, or Amazon is just the only place that sells PS4s.
 
S

Skeff

Member
[PS4] 560K
[XB1] 310K
[3DS] 160K
[WIU] 82K
[360] 61K
[PS3] 60K

You know, I'm feeling like it was a good month overall
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Hindle said:
[X1] 300k
[PS4] 350k
[Wii U] 80k
[PS3] 40k
[360] 90k
[3DS] 130k
Click to expand...

1) You have to follow the formatting in the OP, so you should change "[X1]" to "[XB1] and "[Wii u]" to "[WIU]"
2) Do you really expect PS4 and XB1 to be that close?
3) Why do you think 360 will get 90K this month? Seems too high.
 
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