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[Mpl90]

To reply to Aqua, even with the DS, I always felt the best games were Japanese on that to begin with. I'm probably part of the problem in that sense.

Also, I don't think Satya will axe the xbox division. When you have loss leaders like Bing around, the Xbox is nowhere near that... yet


So where do folks see the Just Dance, Skylanders, and Disney Infinity audience going? I guess it's too early to tell before the holidays, but at the very least, Just Dance seems to be declining and stuck on Wii at the very least. Skylanders generally stuck on 360/Wii for now and Disney dropped the Wii version. I guess Harker said the Wii and Wii U sales of Skylanders weren't that different (10K), but it makes you wonder whether it'll sell well during the holidays or not.

While that's true (IMHO), it's also true that DS had lots of good selling Western titles. Yeah, most of them were shovelware / tie-in games, but you had also the Scribblenauts series, for example. Now, Western efforts are reduced to the minimum and they don't sell as much as they did in DS era. Going by past software datas, it seems 3DS obtained to capture

1)Nintendo fans
2)Japanese games core fans (see successes for core-aimed titles, including Fire Emblem, which is 1st party, but did much better than past entries)
3)Just a part of the kids / mass audience (LEGO games tend to sell through time on 3DS...also, I'd say Tomodachi Life, which see a 1 million+ shipment in the West, and we could estimate European sales by the recently shared graph, but it's been a while since we had the last update for US)

But it's ignored by

1) Western games core fans
2) A good portion of the kids / mass audience

While it's true that DS was ignored a bit by the former as well, the latter was very, very influent.

 

[Neff]

It blows my mind how aggressive Microsoft has been with XB1.

They can't afford to fall significantly behind this early in the race. This year and this holiday is crucial for MS. Since PS4 and XB1 offer such a similar experience and no doubt will continue to for a long time, it's vital for XB1 that it at least stays within sniffing distance of PS4.

If the market ever collectively decides that it wants to have the PS4/XB1 experience on PS4, PS4 will snowball (and there's quite a bit of evidence that it already is doing), and if that happens there's not much XB1 can do short of netting crazy exclusives, and that probably wouldn't do much anyway. The social/collective aspect is more important than ever. If the library isn't significantly different, people are simply going to go where the most players/best value/most power are/is. Right now, that's arguably PS4, hence MS' hard assault. MS is playing their hand well though, I must say.

 

[ALLseeingEYE]

AAA games compete primarily on production budgets (which literally equates to money spent), not on things like gameplay innovation (which can't be budgeted for).

A platform owner subsidising a AAA title - whether directly through moneyhats, or indirectly like picking up the marketing tab or reducing their platform fee - indirectly raises the cost of all other AAA producers to compete in that space.

And your point is that Microsoft is the problem? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall Sony spending vastly more sums of money on first-party AAA games last generation, to the point where they had so many games releasing within a timespan that the market became saturated and couldn't sustain them all (Resistance 3, Starhawk, Motorstorm: Apocalypse come to mind, among many others). This is why Sony has such a good reputation for supporting their system these days.

Microsoft has only shown massive spending influx at the beginning of last-gen, and now with Halo 4's astronomical budget, and the current Xbox one offerrings. Both companies are guilty of pushing the boundaries of budgets.

In fact, I'd say that 3rd parties are just as bad. Rockstar, and GTA's $265,000,000 budget comes to mind. Assassin's creed, EA with Battlefield, Mass Effect. this is an industry-wide state. Lets also not forget the true reason games are receiving astronomical budgets: astronomical fan and critic expectations. Fans especially for choosing to basically only buy games with 90+ metacritic, and massive amounts of replay value and crazy production values.

 

[Mpl90]

I think those types of games actually do well on digital, especially when they start getting regular sales/discounts. We keep getting new Etrian Odyssey games despite them doing like 15-20k in their first month retail for instance.

Eeeh, we don't know how much Fantasy Life sold at retail (I was expecting something like 50,000 in the first 9 days, given Bayonetta 2's performance, but that Aqua's post...eh), but maybe you're on something about digital sales being more relevant.

This is the latest US eShop Chart for 3DS, posted just a few hours ago

United States eShop Charts - 11/14/2014 - around 18:18 PST

3DS

Recent Releases
Pokemon Puzzle Challenge (63)
Fantasy Life (969)
Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS (12934)
Pokemon Trading Card Game (24)
Mario Kart 7 (224419)
Super Mario Bros. 3 (3182)
Pokemon Art Academy (247)
Shantae and the Pirate's Curse (372)
Pikmi Short Movies 3D (17)
Shovel Knight (3113)
Super Mario Bros. (38393)
Pokemon Dream Radar (18968)
Azure Striker GUNVOLT (1580)
The Legend of Zelda (19825)
3D Classics: Kid Icarus (11134)
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D (144689)
Animal Crossing: New Leaf (59625)
Harvest Moon: The Lost Valley (66)
Yu-Gi-Oh! ZEXAL World Duel Carnival (230)
Kirby Fighters Deluxe (1135)

Fantasy Life is just behind Pokémon Puzzle Challenge and, more notably, above Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS.

To get better how those charts are calculated, they represent how well titles sold in the past two weeks. I.e., for example, Fantasy Life is 2nd because it sold more in the last 14 days compared to Super Smash Bros. Which means they don't exactly represent how things are going currently (since they include sales up to 14 weeks before), but also that being high is more meaningful than being high on a chart based on sales just in a spefici hour, back to 24 hours before.

 

[ninjablade]

AAA games compete primarily on production budgets (which literally equates to money spent), not on things like gameplay innovation (which can't be budgeted for).

A platform owner subsidising a AAA title - whether directly through moneyhats, or indirectly like picking up the marketing tab or reducing their platform fee - indirectly raises the cost of all other AAA producers to compete in that space.

yea i see your point, a one console future is the best choice for gamers,we would have to pay more for hardware though, but probably get better games.

 

[Ursiform]

Your point is either too subtle, or too shit to comprehend.

Companies having vast warchests they spend distorts market expectations.
The bigger the warchest the bigger the distortion.
MS have spent more than any other company and have therefore distorted the market more than any other company.
That doesn't mean other companies haven't also distorted the market in lesser ways.

Do you actually have a rebuttal to any of that, or am I wasting my time attempting to understand whatever it is you are attempting to convey?

You're good man, carry on.

 

[ninjablade]

And your point is that Microsoft is the problem? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall Sony spending vastly more sums of money on first-party AAA games last generation, to the point where they had so many games releasing within a timespan that the market became saturated and couldn't sustain them all (Resistance 3, Starhawk, Motorstorm: Apocalypse come to mind, among many others). This is why Sony has such a good reputation for supporting their system these days.

Microsoft has only shown massive spending influx at the beginning of last-gen, and now with Halo 4's astronomical budget, and the current Xbox one offerrings. Both companies are guilty of pushing the boundaries of budgets.

In fact, I'd say that 3rd parties are just as bad. Rockstar, and GTA's $265,000,000 budget comes to mind. Assassin's creed, EA with Battlefield, Mass Effect. this is an industry-wide state. Lets also not forget the true reason games are receiving astronomical budgets: astronomical fan and critic expectations. Fans especially for choosing to basically only buy games with 90+ metacritic, and massive amounts of replay value and crazy production values.

I think he's wrong about blaming Microsoft, I think he's main point was console competition doesn't lead to better games, and I have agree with him on that. Look what the ps2 forced Nintendo to do, they released a repackaged GC with motion controls as a next generation console.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

And your point is that Microsoft is the problem?

No, as I said:

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.

They are PART of the problem.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to recall Sony spending vastly more sums of money on first-party AAA games last generation

First party titles don't directly affect third partys expenditure to revenue calculations.
It's an entirely different proposition, other than third parties don't like to compete with first party titles in the same genre for the reason that the expense to revenue calculations don't have to make any sense as long as a platform owner is bankrolling the project.

Microsoft has only shown massive spending influx at the beginning of last-gen

Oh, I wasn't aware that Tomb Raider exclusivity was just because Phil Spencer used to date Lara Croft and they won Minecraft in one of those punch the monkey banner ads.

EDIT:

I think he's wrong about blaming Microsoft, I think he's main point was console competition doesn't lead to better games, and I have agree with him on that. Look what the ps2 forced Nintendo to do, they released a repackaged GC with motion controls as a next generation console.

No, it's that AAA production budgets can only ever go up as they compete against each other; you can't spend big on a title, and then dial those costs back down if it was successful.
MS throwing money around to get a foothold in the console space accelerated those production costs faster, to our current point of unsustainability, where one high profile flop can sink a publisher.

 

[Mike Works]

So do we still not have actual hardware numbers for this month?

 

[ninjablade]

EDIT:


No, it's that AAA production budgets can only ever go up as they compete against each other; you can't spend big on a title, and then dial those costs back down if it was successful.
MS throwing money around to get a foothold in the console space accelerated those production costs faster, to our current point of unsustainability, where one high profile flop can sink a publisher.

Can you name these games that Microsoft threw tons of money at, that really changed the budget for making AAA games, sounds to me like you're mad about Microsoft trying to compete and using there advantages, which of course is just the way business works.

 

[SparkTR]

yea i see your point, a one console future is the best choice for gamers,we would have to pay more for hardware though, but probably get better games.

If it's like how it is now I imagine that'll lead to massive hardware stagnation, and not just more for hardware, but games, subscriptions and DLC. If the manufacture has a change of focus like towards, say, always online, there's nothing we can do about it because it's their walled garden, not ours. A one console future is only worthwhile for consumers if it's something like a Steambox (but, you know, actually exists).

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Can you name these games that Microsoft threw tons of money at, that really changed the budget for making AAA games, sounds to me like you're mad about Microsoft trying to compete and using there advantages, which of course is just the way business works.

- Any title with exclusivity (whether time limited or not) had some form of financial compensation involved.
- Any genre title competing with any other genre title in the AAA space has to match budgets to stay competitive, or be perceived as the second-class knock off version.

The AAA development space is an arms race when it comes to budgets; you can't go from having a Morgan Freeman voiced narrator in part 6 of your franchise to having the teaboy in part 7.

 

[stryke]

Oh, I wasn't aware that Tomb Raider exclusivity was just because Phil Spencer used to date Lara Croft and they won Minecraft in one of those punch the monkey banner ads.

lol that was good.

 

[chithanh]

Can you name these games that Microsoft threw tons of money at, that really changed the budget for making AAA games,

This was published by the developer after Rise of the Tomb Raider (timed?) exclusivity was announced on Xbox:

Today’s announcement with Microsoft is one step to help us put Tomb Raider on top of action adventure gaming. Our friends at Microsoft have always seen huge potential in Tomb Raider and have believed in our vision since our first unveil with them on their stage at E3 2011. We know they will get behind this game more than any support we have had from them in the past - we believe this will be a step to really forging the Tomb Raider brand as one of the biggest in gaming, with the help, belief and backing of a major partner like Microsoft.

http://tombraider.tumblr.com/post/94529480860/rise-of-the-tomb-raider-update
You could almost imagine the dollar signs in his eyes when he wrote that.

 

[EGM1966]

It blows my mind how aggressive Microsoft has been with XB1. This push only benefits us as a consumer. Sony is upping their game as well even though they have a sizeable lead. I feel bad for their Day One audience though. The dropping of Kinect and 2+ games for sub $400 USD/CAD is unbelievable.

They had to be, simple as that. Hindsight shows us that, without extensive action from MS, they had a disaster on their hands that was initially masked by the launch sales.

If they hadn't dropped Kinect, if they handled bundles and promoted heavily, if they hadn't massively invested in the OS we'd be looking at a situation where PS4 would easily clean up peak trading 2014 and by early 2015 when the flow of bigger exclusives started for PS4 the entire gen would have been set.

MS has to remain in the game in US and UK and it was obvious that at the price point with Kinect, an OS that was miles behind the marketing of media capabilities and multi platform ganes selling a lot more on PS4 they wouldn't be able to do so.

While there's not enough there yet for me to pick up one - because by this stage it would be for exclusives only - I mostly admire their efforts to switch things around, throwing free games at customers, dropping Kinect like the ball and chain around the consoles ankles it was and getting the price down via bundles.

But it had to be done. Without being that aggressive they'd be in deep shit by now.

 

[Kill3r7]

- Any title with exclusivity (whether time limited or not) had some form of financial compensation involved.
- Any genre title competing with any other genre title in the AAA space has to match budgets to stay competitive, or be perceived as the second-class knock off version.

The AAA development space is an arms race when it comes to budgets; you can't go from having a Morgan Freeman voiced narrator in part 6 of your franchise to having the teaboy in part 7.

CoD. That is all that needs to be said about the arms race in the AAA space. Their success is what has driven the arms race. No major publisher (really stockholders) is satisfied making money when you have a franchise out there releasing annually generating billion dollar revenue. Quite frankly 5-6 million copies sold just isn't enough to compete in that space. This is no different than what happens in the movie industry.

The problem is that shooters, sports and open world games dominate the market. Everyone else has to excel in their respective niche space. Studios have to understand the limitations of their IPs and budget accordingly.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

So do we still not have actual hardware numbers for this month?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I read a few pages back that estimates PS4 sold about 120,000 more than the XBone in October.

 

[Osahi]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I read a few pages back that estimates PS4 sold about 120,000 more than the XBone in October.

Was debunked if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Ursiform]

MS throwing money around to get a foothold in the console space accelerated those production costs faster, to our current point of unsustainability, where one high profile flop can sink a publisher.

Yeah, well don't try to pin global warming on them. Those Live servers run on orphan tears and Ballmer's pit sweat.

 

[3rdamention]

So do we still not have actual hardware numbers for this month?

Wait till the 19th, SalesGAF isn't over, it's just delayed

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I read a few pages back that estimates PS4 sold about 120,000 more than the XBone in October.

It was debunked, it could be more or it could be less...

 

[sense]

Wait till the 19th,

whats on the 19th?

 

[Trust me. I'm a PhD]

whats on the 19th?

Her highness, Ms. Aquamarine is set to return ^^

 

[stryke]

whats on the 19th?

Waifu

 

[CadetMahoney]

Today’s announcement with Microsoft is one step to help us put Tomb Raider on top of action adventure gaming. Our friends at Microsoft have always seen huge potential in Tomb Raider and have believed in our vision since our first unveil with them on their stage at E3 2011. We know they will get behind this game more than any support we have had from them in the past - we believe this will be a step to really forging the Tomb Raider brand as one of the biggest in gaming, with the help, belief and backing of a major partner like Microsoft.

You could almost imagine the dollar signs in his eyes when he wrote that.

roff

 

[3rdamention]

whats on the 19th?

The 2.0 Phoenix rises from the ashes

 

[stryke]

You'll be lucky if she ever posts again, and I doubt very much it'll ever be in an NPD thread if so.
Don't hold your breath for numbers coming from anywhere, if anyone was willing to leak they would have by now.

Judging by her behaviour she looks itching to come back.

 

[Dual Blade]

They can't afford to fall significantly behind this early in the race...

They had to be, simple as that. Hindsight shows us that, without extensive action from MS, they had a disaster on their hands that was initially masked by the launch sales....

But it had to be done. Without being that aggressive they'd be in deep shit by now.

I agree with the both of you. How ever I cannot shake how they arguably "burned" their launch fan base. Yes it's the price of Day One but nearly $300 in savings not even a calendar year later is big. Maybe it's just my wallet thinking out loud here.

I felt dropping kinect was the easy way out but there was just too much negative feedback towards it.

 

[3rdamention]

You'll be lucky if she ever posts again, and I doubt very much it'll ever be in an NPD thread if so.
Don't hold your breath for numbers coming from anywhere, if anyone was willing to leak they would have by now.

You must not use twitter then

 

[Miles X]

I agree with the both of you. How ever I cannot shake how they arguably "burned" their launch fan base. Yes it's the price of Day One but nearly $300 in savings not even a calendar year later is big. Maybe it's just my wallet thinking out loud here.

I felt dropping kinect was the easy way out but there was just too much negative feedback towards it.

They say they have a surprise for XB1's 1st birthday. Best thing they can and should do is give us $50 free XBL credit to say thanks.

That's only $150m~ over 3m launch buyers.

 

[anexanhume]

Judging by her behaviour she looks itching to come back.

The 2.0 Phoenix rises from the ashes

Waif2

 

[sörine]

AAA games compete primarily on production budgets (which literally equates to money spent), not on things like gameplay innovation (which can't be budgeted for).

A platform owner subsidising a AAA title - whether directly through moneyhats, or indirectly like picking up the marketing tab or reducing their platform fee - indirectly raises the cost of all other AAA producers to compete in that space.

This sounds like a pretty good summation of what happened with Final Fantasy VII.

 

[EGM1966]

I agree with the both of you. How ever I cannot shake how they arguably "burned" their launch fan base. Yes it's the price of Day One but nearly $300 in savings not even a calendar year later is big. Maybe it's just my wallet thinking out loud here.

I felt dropping kinect was the easy way out but there was just too much negative feedback towards it.

Id agree that in this case early adopters got burned more than average - .ie. the price drops and deals have resulted in huge gulf between cost of entry in just 12 months.

MS had to do it and I guess not everyone feels burned if they've enjoyed their XB1 but I can completely understand people feeling they were burned because they do have justification to do so.

I know if I'd paid launch price with Kinect I'd be fairly miffed at current pricing and deals.

 

[mrklaw]

It blows my mind how aggressive Microsoft has been with XB1. This push only benefits us as a consumer. Sony is upping their game as well even though they have a sizeable lead. I feel bad for their Day One audience though. The dropping of Kinect and 2+ games for sub $400 USD/CAD is unbelievable.

they're doing it for two months, and in one market. Granted, the most important two months of the year, and the most important market. But they aren't exactly writing a blank cheque.

In most other places they simply aren't competing on the same level. They're pushing bundles heavily in the UK but are being countered strongly by Sony.

 

[mrklaw]

Basically retailers would like to know total market sales data, right? Makes assortment and purchasing decisions easier. They also want a view if they're under or over buying or missing out.

Problem is they only have their own sales data, the total market data is spread across all the other retailers and many of them are probably competitors.

So Nielsen and NPD essentially act as data brokers. They purchase and collate data (often cleansing it so far as I know although I'm less familiar with NPD) then re-sell it to retailers and other groups for whom it has value to know the total market picture (or close to it 'cause yes NPD doesn't cover everything).

For example I was in a meeting with a large UK retailer talking to their electronics buying director and he buys UK data for games, etc for exact same reason: he wants to know how say Watch Dogs sold in total vs how much his department bought and sold and evaluate if they bought well or not for future reference.

Central to this is all the retailers are selling the same thing in this case.

No think about films. If I'm Fox would I really buy data on how Warner's films performed? Does it have much value when the film Fox is making is different, has a different script and different actors?

Sure a little but not very much. Hence in the film industry nobody is trying to make money as a broker for that information and hence it tends to be available without cost and unhidden.

Technically you could argue Fox and Warner don't have to share (haven't looked into that specifically) but the medium has a history aligned with music for charts and allowing public to know what's most popular, etc.

So with games you have the data hidden as it has a value so long as it isn't freely and openly available (hence why Aqua and others were rightly twitchy about people on GAF being too gung ho about re-posting and collating leaked info) whereas the low or zero value data on film performance is freely available via Boxofficemojo and others.

That's the basics as I understand it anyway.

great post, but I have some comments.

- wouldn't it be useful for competing cinema chains to understand how different movies perform to check they have a suitable number of screens showing it? That suggests the data has value and it would be useful to protect it behind a paid subscription? Likewise it may be useful for Warner to know how 'volcano movie A' did for Fox because they have a similar disaster movie coming out in 3 months and might want to tweak their approach to marketing based on the reception.

Is there a difference between how box office results are public and how DVD/bluray sales are reported? I don't know if DVD/bluray gets more than an ordered chart - so no actual public volume information. In this respect gaming might simply be following the retail norm and it is movies that is the exception?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Seems like they are spending a lot of money for little gain though. They can only do that for a year or two before investors start getting very grumpy.

True, but in the meantime, the more these two companies are battling for your business, the more appealing the offers each company provides will be. Lower HW pricing, more promotion, more games, better PS+/GwG offers, etc.

Why is this good for the consumer, though? Do you think Microsoft would be funding third party games that otherwise wouldn't be made?

edit: Oh, you just mean price drops on hardware.

Not just drops on hardware, better overall consumer offering. No idea on funding third party exclusives. Those never make sense to me unless there is some perceived risk on the title. Taking one of those exclusivity deals is nothing more than risk management on the part of the 3rd party pub. You're taking a guaranteed amount upfront because you're uncertain you'd be able to get that same amount later. In this climate, however, I can see where some people would just be willing to roll the dice on alternative methods of going to market. Nothing is guaranteed in this market where a game like TEW can reach #2 and other big games that surely benchmark at a higher sales level don't make the top 10. There is a great amount of uncertainty right now.

I honestly think part of the mess that the console industry has got itself into is MS throwing money around and distorting expectations of AAA budgets versus expected revenues.
So no, competition isn't always good for the consumer. Particularly long term, and particularly where "competition" is measured in using money to muscle your way into a market, not on things like improving business practices or customer satisfaction.

Not sure what one has to do with the other.

Your first point is simply incorrect imo. Call of Duty and the other mega franchises have done far more damage in that area than any of the first parties.

On your second point, of course first parties are using money to do things that they think will make their product more appealing to consumers and provide higher satisfaction. Doesn't mean it always works out.

Also think you're defining the word competition in a very specific and somewhat strange way.

It seems so long ago that you were laser focused and not tangent...

I gotta get my sh*t together.

Is there a difference between how box office results are public and how DVD/bluray sales are reported? I don't know if DVD/bluray gets more than an ordered chart - so no actual public volume information. In this respect gaming might simply be following the retail norm and it is movies that is the exception?

Interesting point. So, for DVD and Bluray, a measure called UMBO (Units per Million Box Office) is used to benchmark historical performance. So, how many DVD's are expected to sell over a period of time for every million dollars of box office performance. Genre/stars/release timing, etc benchmarks are selected for a future title, UMBO is measured for those benchmark titles, and then, once a film hits the box office and a projection can be made, that's when studios and retailers calculate their estimated buys and sellthrough for upcoming DVD releases.

The public does not see those DVD and Bluray sales figures. So in that case, your point on games following the norm makes a ton of sense. And unfortunately for everyone involved in forecasting game sales, there is no box office on which to estimate the sales potential of a game.

 

[Fdkn]

Soo anyone knows the last known figure of LTD sales for MLB'14 The Show? specifically the ps4 version if possible.

That thread about no-games has me thinking about it but I don't know where to find the numbers

 

[crinale]

- Any title with exclusivity (whether time limited or not) had some form of financial compensation involved.
- Any genre title competing with any other genre title in the AAA space has to match budgets to stay competitive, or be perceived as the second-class knock off version.

The AAA development space is an arms race when it comes to budgets; you can't go from having a Morgan Freeman voiced narrator in part 6 of your franchise to having the teaboy in part 7.

While I agree with you on this, doesn't this apply to pretty much everything on any industry? If you boil down competition to budget arms race then yeah whoever with biggest warchest will ultimately win.

 

[Final Verdict]

If Xbox One sold ~170k in october (40% drop), weekly average is ~42.5k

42.5k * 3= 127.5k weekly average. In four weeks is 510k (less than PS4 september).

But this is just a speculation, we don't know how much Xbox One was selling in the week before price drop.

That's some nice math, but BF will significantly boost those numbers.

I'm thinking they can do 800k, which is about what they did last year.

The price cut has obviously helped, and the black friday deals are just insane, so all that will amount to....well mediocre sells compared to the 360.
At it's peak, the 360 was selling 1.7M in November NPD, though that was later in it's lifecycle...

Also, I am fairly sure that the X1 did better in it's last week of October, just like you said it might have.
In Microsoft's post they said that they beat the PS4 for the past two weeks.

Assuming the are counting the weeks as Sunday-Saturday (just as NPD does) then that means that they beat PS4 for the weeks:
Oct. 26 - Nov. 1
Nov. 2 - Nov. 8

And, they said that their sales did more than triple the past week, so I don't think it would be too crazy to think that they did around 150k for that week.

 

[Mpl90]

Just thought that Smash Bros. Wii U will be a very important matter of discussion for November, but also on a less-talked level: it's the first Nintendo title supporting the pre-load option from eShop / Nintendo.com. Given how pre-load is definitely something that reduces the digital hurdles (no need to wait too much in order to play when the game is released, since you already pre-loaded almost all the game), and seeing how both PS4 and Xbox One (consoles that support pre-load) are seeing 20-25% of retail games's sales being digital (IIRC), I think it'll be quite interesting to see if it'll experience an higher digital adoption at launch than other Nintendo titles on Wii U, and how much higher it'll be, in the case.

 

[Final Verdict]

Id agree that in this case early adopters got burned more than average - .ie. the price drops and deals have resulted in huge gulf between cost of entry in just 12 months.

MS had to do it and I guess not everyone feels burned if they've enjoyed their XB1 but I can completely understand people feeling they were burned because they do have justification to do so.

I know if I'd paid launch price with Kinect I'd be fairly miffed at current pricing and deals.

Yeah, I would agree.

I am a Day one owner, and while I have had a great time with the X1 the past year, I do feel a bit jealous that just one year later people can get the system with a free game for $200 less than what I paid.

Next time I think I am going to wait a year.

 

[StevieP]

yea i see your point, a one console future is the best choice for gamers,we would have to pay more for hardware though, but probably get better games.

That would be a pc. A single closed walled garden console would be absolutely awful for gamers in every way

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

That's some nice math, but BF will significantly boost those numbers.

I'm thinking they can do 800k, which is about what they did last year.

The price cut has obviously helped, and the black friday deals are just insane, so all that will amount to....well mediocre sells compared to the 360.
At it's peak, the 360 was selling 1.7M in November NPD, though that was later in it's lifecycle...

Also, I am fairly sure that the X1 did better in it's last week of October, just like you said it might have.
In Microsoft's post they said that they beat the PS4 for the past two weeks.

Assuming the are counting the weeks as Sunday-Saturday (just as NPD does) then that means that they beat PS4 for the weeks:
Oct. 26 - Nov. 1
Nov. 2 - Nov. 8

And, they said that their sales did more than triple the past week, so I don't think it would be too crazy to think that they did around 150k for that week.

I'll admit I'm not an expert on November sales trends but you think the Xbone can go from selling 170k to 800k in one month? Almost quintuple sales. I can't see it.

 

[theprodigy]

Just thought that Smash Bros. Wii U will be a very important matter of discussion for November, but also on a less-talked level: it's the first Nintendo title supporting the pre-load option from eShop / Nintendo.com. Given how pre-load is definitely something that reduces the digital hurdles (no need to wait too much in order to play when the game is released, since you already pre-loaded almost all the game), and seeing how both PS4 and Xbox One (consoles that support pre-load) are seeing 20-25% of retail games's sales being digital (IIRC), I think it'll be quite interesting to see if it'll experience an higher digital adoption at launch than other Nintendo titles on Wii U, and how much higher it'll be, in the case.

eh, maybe, but the game itself is also rather big isn't it

I'll admit I'm not an expert on November sales trends but you think the Xbone can go from selling 170k to 800k in one month? Almost quintuple sales. I can't see it.

dude it's fucking November, of course it can

 

[Welfare]

I'll admit I'm not an expert on November sales trends but you think the Xbone can go from selling 170k to 800k in one month? Almost quintuple sales. I can't see it.

You should. Non holiday month vs Holiday month. Black Friday week alone is going to be more than the One's entire October.

 

[Mpl90]

eh, maybe, but the game itself is also rather big isn't it

It should be between 11 and 15GB...and that will make things more interesting, actually.

 

[Miles X]

Do we even know XB1 is 170k ...

 

[ninjablade]

That would be a pc. A single closed walled garden console would be absolutely awful for gamers in every way

Wasn't that's the case for nes, ps, and ps2 where they basically had all third party support to themselves.

 

[StormKing]

Wasn't that's the case for nes, ps, and ps2 where they basically had all third party support to themselves.

Looking at the PS3, Xbox One and the N64, neither Sony, Microsoft nor Nintendo can be trusted with a monopoly. In the absence of competition, they'll definitely make business decisions that are harmful to consumers. PC would be better because no has control over the entire market.

 

[mrklaw]

You should. Non holiday month vs Holiday month. Black Friday week alone is going to be more than the One's entire October.

How has November compared to October historically?

 

[BradleyLove]

Looking at the PS3, Xbox One and the N64, neither Sony, Microsoft nor Nintendo can be trusted with a monopoly. In the absence of competition, they'll definitely make business decisions that are harmful to consumers. PC would be better because no has control over the entire market.

Uh, other than MS due to Windows. Being realistic, Linux is still not a viable alternative.