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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

The only thing that can make this thread explode further would be Sony actually won because Microsoft combined the US and UK in the NPD statement.

If they won in the US alone, one of the big three PR guys from Xbox will say so. There will be enough people berating them for the next week not to put it to rest.
 

A_Gorilla

Banned
moralvictoryn9cbk.gif

I love you.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Unless the US-only gap is within the margin of error for NPD so MS can't make a definitive statement based in US only numbers, and needs Gfk's UK numbers to give it enough confidence to claim victory?
 
Even if it lasts 8 years, it has pretty much zero chance to reach X360 numbers

I'm open to correction, definitely. Could you explain in more detail though?

I'm expecting Niro or someone to lay some cold facts on me in a second since people are reacting like that to the idea.

Edit: Oh apparently it's only outpacing in USA? That makes some sense.
 

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.
 

Elios83

Member
The real important thing here is who won Black Friday weekend. Because I'm betting it was Sony by a decent margin.

That PS4 bundle was moving like absolute gangbusters everywhere I went on Black Friday.

That is obvious IF the cboat numbers are confirmed.
XB1 outsold PS4 in the first half of the month, PS4 recouped ground in the second half and basically tied.
Honestly too many people were downplaying the fact that MS didn't brag after BF....while it was pretty much telling that something wasn't going their way.
 
Why wouldn't it? Hasn't it been selling at a faster pace than the 360 since it released?

No. It did that the first two months it was out because the Xbox 360 was supply constrained, and the PS4 was constrained during the XB1 launch.

That fell off by its first Christmas. The idea that it's been selling at a good pace, ignoring the PS4, is wrong.
 

Darker

Banned
I'm very sorry for being slow on this, but;

Do we know how much an Xbox One needs to sell for to break even? I'm seeing it around the £319/£329 (with games, I believe) mark - is it even profitable at that point?
 
It's bad man.

Here's how.

1. In order to achieve this win, Microsoft had to deeply devalue the product they had been offering all year for higher prices. Consumers jumped in - with a big jump early in November - but according to insiders, Sony may have even won Black Friday and it was those early two weeks that allowed Microsoft to keep the overall win.

2. So, due to this fact, what happens? Will Microsoft have to keep the price at $349? I don't see any viable alternative if they want to stay even remotely competitive now. If they go up to $399, consumers are going to wait it out knowing Microsoft will take drastic price cutting measures if they feel threatened from a marketshare point-of-view. So they'd just as likely wait it out. Consider Xbox division is already under pressure to start making a profit and being a viable pillar, many interal debates between services & devices and the other divisions. In order to just barely win, they had to cut in deep to their profit margin.

3. This means that once the glow of the price change is over, the trajectory indicates it's very likely now PS4 is just going to go back to winning every month. This is the last thing Microsoft wanted. Now they've devalued their platform, their profit margins are diminished, and PS4 is still the marketleader getting their good PR. Microsoft gained almost nothing in the exchange, except perhaps to tell third parties planning to publish games in the West that it's still important to make ports for XBO and engage in marketing deals with MS for some exclusivity and other mutually beneficial deals.

4. With all the game announcements from Sony in December (in fact so many that PS4 is dominating December discussion, in a crucial period of the time when families come together and thus quickly spread their opinions on personal events, TV shows, games, etc), it's not likely Microsoft is going to have room to breathe to make a second month upset. Microsoft Store is selling their system at an astonishing $349 AC Bundle with two free games on top of it, but it will not be enough with numbers that look like this even for November NPD.


None of this means XBO is selling poorly, it probably did quite well if it's that close and edged out PS4. But it does now mean the future is clear: Sony has this generation in the bag in terms of system sales, including in US and UK, and that Microsoft is going to have a very hard fight to even keep their unit sales competitive in their only two remaining viable territories.

Summarizes the situation perfectly. MS was literally 1 step away from paying people to buy an Xbone and only managed to match a position Sony has been in every month.
 

Verendus

Banned
Depends if what CBOAT says is true. All that money drops for such a small numbers gain for one month.
Let me tell you this story.

Once upon a time, in another life where I wasn't the leader of Xbox, I was a high school gym teacher. And then there was this competition between my class and a class from another high school. I put forward my star student who was able to do the most amount of reps on a bench press. In the end, the opponent did 45 reps, before he exhausted himself. My student had only ever maxed out at 40 in the past.

But that day, I told little Jimmy that he's doing to do 46. Because 46 means he's going to win. And that's all that matters. Little Jimmy didn't have to 60 reps or 90 reps, he just had to do 46 reps.

And that's what he did. Little Jimmy went home with the gold that day.

Fact is, a win is a win. It may have taken everything, every ounce of energy, every drop of sweat, every drop of blood that the Xbox One has, but it did it. At least it wasn't like The Rock at Wrestlemania 17. He just gave up after 20 chair shots.
 
MS cut the price didn't they? so of course they would sell more. That said I don't see why people get all excited for these numbers - unless you have stocks in said companies what does it matter to you who sells more each month? Millions of people have PS4's and Xbox's and Wii U's and millions more will be sold of each in the coming years.

But hey if people want to get excited then have at it I guess.
 

Amir0x

Banned
I'm open to correction, definitely. Could you explain in more detail though?

I'm expecting Niro or someone to lay some cold facts on me in a second since people are reacting like that to the idea.

I think we need to get hard numbers for November NPD to be able to properly obtain this context.

If the trajectory hasn't significantly shifted year over year, it's likely XBO will be a 45-50 million selling console. Pending also how long MS and Sony plan to stretch out this generation relative to PS360 gen.
 
I'm very sorry for being slow on this, but;

Do we know how much an Xbox One needs to sell for to break even? I'm seeing it around the £319/£329 (with games, I believe) mark - is it even profitable at that point?

While these components are much cheaper than the ones in the XB360 and the PS3 were they don't cost nothing. I would assume they both cost about $200 to manufacture at this point. And they probably pay $20 or so for the bundled games, but subsidized gift cards are pretty much at cost to MS.
 
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.

Keeping the same bundle (well, they will swap out ACU/AC4 for something else, i'd suggest FH2 and SO personally) in a period of traditionally not many good deals?

Depends how far they want to go, they won't put the price back up though
 

harSon

Banned
Even if it lasts 8 years, it has pretty much zero chance to reach X360 numbers

Even though the XB1 is currently outpacing the XB360, and the fact that the console space is a two horse race - as opposed to a three horse race last generation... I think it might have a bit better chance than 0%
 

mdubs

Banned
I feel like there needs to be some perspective here. It would mean they couldn't plausibly win the generation, but the overall stats for XBO still paint it as a very healthy console on track to outsell the X360 worldwide. I don't think "fucked" would be a fair way to describe the situation they're in, except in the very narrow sense that their ability to come first place would be torpedoed. PS4 and XBO are both seemingly filling the void left by the WiiU's total failure to follow-up on the Wii's success.

I thought Sony GAF of all people should be used to explaining how the PSP wasn't an overall failure just because the DS was a mega-success.

( ͡°╭͜ʖ╮͡° )

1398483224959.gif
 

Ledhead

Member
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.

Yeah I was just thinking that. Sony has the Order 1886 and Bloodborne, and I see both of those being well received by their respective audiences. What is coming out in 2015 for MS? Halo 5 is slated for fall if I remember correctly, as is QB.
 
D

Deleted member 17706

Unconfirmed Member
One thing I don't see a lot of buzz about yet, but I think we will in the coming days is the big drop Call of Duty saw compared to last year, especially on last gen consoles.
 

Ethelwulf

Member
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.

It looks pretty bad yeah. They must keep the 350 price. going up to 400 again might be too bad to handle.
 

Speevy

Banned
Congratulations EA and Bioware on creating a magnificent PC-focused Rpg franchise and then driving it into the ground with dumbed down A for Awesome crap.

I think Inquisition is a step in the right direction for the franchise. It certainly wasn't anywhere near "magnificent" before that.

DAI didn't deserve to sell as poorly as it has, that's for sure.
 

RoKKeR

Member
My biggest question from this is, if the 7-10k figure is true, how is MS going to gain any momentum in the first half of 2015? They had multiple exclusives and major comarketing deals in October and November along with some extremely aggressive pricing. Before Fall, their 2015 is looking pretty barren.

I'm wondering this as well.
 
7-10k dif

this is so fucked

I saw this multiple times in this thread and question why should it?

Good deals and bundles sell consoles, not hardcore-centric gaming events that most consumers don't know about.

having an event like this is a great way to get advertising and hype for your console. shit was almost like a game release.

Not that it'll be seen in the sea of posts, but the Update of "Xbox #1" isn't known as true from what we have so far, because Microsoft's PR says "US and UK outsold". That could mean US sold less, UK more.

im still confused about this US/UK statement. if they won NPDs then why not just say so?
 
I don't think this generation will be that long, and I don't think any of these consoles outsell their predecessors totals

Sony supports their consoles for 10 years. Unless the market has shrunken far more than anyone expects, Sony is gonna get get as many sales on PS4 as they did on PS3 and then add to it the numerous sales from former 360 owners. Obviously a drastic change could stop all that, but so far that is the clear indication from the evidence.
 

SeanR1221

Member
I asked earlier but there were too many posts. Has any console ever dropped 150.00 like this in a year? I'm assuming MS will stay at 350 now.
 
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