• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

A Look at the Top 20 Most Profitable Films of 2016 (according to Deadline)

Status
Not open for further replies.

kswiston

Member
FINAL TOP 20 IS NOW UP (4/3)

Deadline has finished doing a countdown of the Top 20 films of 2016 by total profit for their studios/production companies. This is something that they do annually, using a variety of sources to arrive at their estimates.

While I don't think that we can take their numbers as 100% fact, they are probably ballpark accurate. They also do a good job shedding light on how much money is actually spent and made on films beyond their reported production budgets and box office receipts.

A master list to Deadline's countdown articles (with some justifications for their figures) can be here: http://deadline.com/tag/movie-profits/

Because they are trying to maximize clicks, I have done the work of summarizing the numbers from their various balance sheet images into a few more convenient charts (which will make it easier to compare films). They will probably do a summary article at some point, but too late, I already finished it.

For those who don't really care about the details, here is a summary chart of total revenue, expenses, and profit (from the point of the film studios).

sGHNpqf.png


Deadline makes no attempt to quantify things like earnings from product placement and merchandising, so these total profit numbers are likely under-estimates. Especially for the animated films. It is also worth pointing out that a few of these films (La La Land, Hidden Figures, and Moana) are still in the process of wrapping up their WW runs, and will end up making slightly more than what has been listed.


Here are the detailed sheets breaking down the sources of revenue and the categories of expenses.

uniSTI3.png


Vr6MaOW.png


A few things to point out.

1) You might notice that the revenue sheet for La La Land is a bit strange. This is due to the fact that Lionsgate sells off the majority of the international distribution rights for its films. This allows them to offset the risks of their productions (and avoid losing big money on their bombs), but it is to their detriment when a film blows up like La La Land. So, while the film made quite a bit overseas, Lionsgate only directly profits from the UK gross (where they distributed). I would guess that the remaining $30M or so in that overseas studio cut comes from profit sharing clauses in territories where La La Land overperformed. The proceeds of the international rights sales for La La Land are listed under foreign contributions ($55M).

Selling the foreign rights also means that Lionsgate misses out on international TV and home video profits. I'm not really sure why Deadline left the WW Home Media figure blank though. Presumably, Lionsgate makes money off domestic home video.

2) There are two categories for Prints and Advertising under the Expenses chart. If the studio handled worldwide distribution (with some exceptions in most cases), the total marketing and distribution costs (domestic + international) are listed under WW Prints and Ads. In La La Land's case, Lionsgate is only paying for the domestic distribution and ads, so the expense is listed in the domestic column.

3) The participation expense estimates money distributed in the various gross participation deals in the contracts of a film's actors, director, producers, etc. I assume that the residuals come from TV and Home video profits (and also go to the talent involved in the film).

4) Don't Breathe is a good case study in why studios don't just release 50 low budget films a year even if they typically gross 3-20x their production budgets. When you factor in the other expenses, production budget is almost negligible.


This thread started when we only had #11-20. I have been updating the thread as new data was added. If you are joining late, many of the posts before #47 are talking about an then incomplete list of films.
 

Raguel

Member
Dang at Dr. Strange's ad expenses. But I guess Marvel had to go heavy on advertising a relatively unknown character.
 

Linkura

Member
Dat ROI for Hidden Figures, Jesus. I'm pretty sure no one expected it to make this much bank.

Great OT. Will be following as we get #1-10.
 

kswiston

Member
Deadline has resumed their countdown of this list. #10 was Suicide Squad and #9 was Fantastic Beasts. See the OP for updated graphs containing numbers for each.

The Top 8 will contain two superhero flicks, Star Wars, and five talking animal movies.
 

kswiston

Member
This year is going to be taken by Get Out for sure. Nothing else will even come close

Nah. Get Out will definitely make the list, but take a look at the numbers for Don't Breathe or Hidden Figures. Production budgets are a minority of the total cost for small budget films. Get Out might make the Top 10.

Deadpool's gotta be number 1 I imagine.

I doubt this as well. Pets made $100M more on a slightly larger production budget ($75M vs $58M).
 

kswiston

Member
I feel like their expenses figures are just guesswork.

I'd guess that "trusted sources" in this case are people who do or have done movie accounting/budgeting in Hollywood. So, they are probably educated guesses, even if #8 might have actually been #10 or whatever.
 

kswiston

Member
I have updated the list with today's entries. Civil War was #8 and Sing was #7.

I was expecting Sing, but Civil War was much lower than I expected. I guess I didn't consider how much of the film's revenue went into gross participation and residuals.

Deadpool, Rogue One, Zootopia, Finding Dory, The Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets are left.

The Jungle Book will almost certainly be part of tomorrow's update. Zootopia might be there as well, since it had the lowest domestic gross, the highest Chinese gross, and a fairly large budget.
 

BumRush

Member
I have updated the list with today's entries. Civil War was #8 and Sing was #7.

I was expecting Sing, but Civil War was much lower than I expected. I guess I didn't consider how much of the film's revenue went into gross participation and residuals.

Deadpool, Rogue One, Zootopia, Finding Dory, The Jungle Book and Secret Life of Pets are left.

The Jungle Book will almost certainly be part of tomorrow's update. Zootopia might be there as well, since it had the lowest domestic gross, the highest Chinese gross, and a fairly large budget.

Those expenses for CW are OUTRAGEOUS. I mean, I get why they did it, but wow.


In the end, Disney is going to have made a net profit of $1.3B-$1.5B+ from their 2016 films, and that's not considering merchandising (inc. DVD, VOD, etc)
 
Like, for free, dude consistently offers up better analysis and better understanding than what BOM shovels.

It sucks that dude isn't getting paid for this.

Like, the other day, he just, in his FREE TIME, cooked up a replacement for adjusted numbers that is more easily understood and way more useful.

Like, BOM can't even get exchange rates right.

For K-Swiss, it was Tuesday.
 

BumRush

Member
So what are we thinking for the top 3?

Deadpool, Dory, Pets (in order from 3 to 1) is my guess.

Like, for free, dude consistently offers up better analysis and better understanding than what BOM shovels.

It sucks that dude isn't getting paid for this.

Like, the other day, he just, in his FREE TIME, cooked up a replacement for adjusted numbers that is more easily understood and way more useful.

Like, BOM can't even get exchange rates right.

For K-Swiss, it was Tuesday.

Lol...and very true
 

kswiston

Member
Thanks for the endorsements.

What is residuals & interests/overheads?

Residuals are money paid to the creative types for TV broadcasts, streaming, etc. Interest is pretty straight forward. Financial institutions lend money to makes these movies. They want interest in return. Overhead covers the miscellaneous costs of running a production, including office space, support and legal staff, probably warehouse costs for physical goods, etc.

So what are we thinking for the top 3?

We know the production budgets of the films that are left: The Jungle Book ($175M), Finding Dory ($200M), Zootopia ($150M), Rogue One ($200M), Secret Life of Pets ($75M), and Deadpool ($58M).

Zootopia, Secret Life of Pets, The Jungle Book and Deadpool had similar domestic takes. They also had fairly similar overseas grosses outside of China. Zootopia made a ton ($235M) in China, while Deadpool made $0 there. However, Chinese gross sharing for foreign studios is only 25%, so it is the least important segment of the WW gross per dollar. Assuming their ad campaigns were comparable, spending $75-100M less on production is probably going to put Deadpool and Secret Life of Pets ahead of the two Disney films on this list. I think that SLOP edges out Deadpool, thanks to a higher gross and probably better home media/TV earnings. However, the marketing campaign seemed pretty heaving for Pets, so maybe not.

Rogue One and Finding Dory made much more domestic than the other remaining films. They are almost certainly ahead of Zootopia and The Jungle Book. I think that Rogue One and Dory had pretty comparable ad campaigns. Both seemed to start in earnest pretty late, but were ubiquitous in the few weeks leading to release. Both of the production budgets are the same. Looking at the cast, I would guess that the Dory actors are the only ones getting much in the way of participation. Anyone with any sort of name power in Rogue One had a bit part. I would be shocked if the leads made more than $1-2M a piece and a fraction of a percent (if anything) on residuals. However, some of the producers might have taken a decent size cut. My gut says R1 over Dory, but it is probably pretty close.

The remaining question is whether the $125M+ in Production budget over SLOP and Deadpool is enough to bump them down the list.
 

kswiston

Member
I have updated the OP with #5 and 6. As I predicted yesterday, The Jungle Book and Zootopia took those spots.


We only have Rogue One, Finding Dory, Secret Life of Pets, and Deadpool left to make up the top 4.

We should get #3-4 tomorrow. Deadline mentioned doing some runner ups before posting #1, so I'm not sure if they will delay the end of the list to Monday, or post 3 segments on Friday. Either way, we'll know what the top film is before then.
 

kswiston

Member
Any update ?

Not really. They posted a few low budget films that made money, but not enough for the top 20: Bad Moms, Sausage Party, and The Purge: Election Year

I can post the breakdowns for those when we get more of the actual top 20 (presumably tomorrow)
 

Mimosa97

Member
Not really. They posted a few low budget films that made money, but not enough for the top 20: Bad Moms, Sausage Party, and The Purge: Election Year

I can post the breakdowns for those when we get more of the actual top 20 (presumably tomorrow)

I just wanna know how much deadpool made in net profits lol
 

kswiston

Member
Deadline only added one film today. Finding Dory was #4. I have updated the OP graphs to include it and the 3 honorable mention movies from yesterday's update. If this week is similar to last week, this feature will go on hiatus during the weekend. We will likely be waiting until at least Tuesday for #1.


Given the numbers we know, I'm fairly confident saying that #3 will be Rogue One. Its expenses will be quite similar to Finding Dory, and its box office revenue was comparable. Unless the top 5 are all super close, I don't see how we fit Deadpool or SLOP between Dory and Rogue One.

I will go with #3) Rogue One, #2) Deadpool, #1) Secret Life of Pets for my guess on the rest of the list.
 

kswiston

Member
Deadline finished up the countdown today. I have updated the OP with the entire list. My guesses in the previous post were correct.
 

kswiston

Member
I didn't really do much in the way of original work here, but Deadline presented their data in the most annoying way possible: fake business balance sheets that were only viewable in some image viewing applet and split up on 21 different pages.

I am sure that they will do a summary article, with a format more convenient for comparing films, at some point. I figured, why wait?


Deadpool is one of the higher films on the list for Participations. Ryan Reynolds got paid.


You probably shouldn't look for Ghost in the Shell on the 2017 version of this list.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom