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Poligaf episode 2010: The Empire Strikes Back

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GhaleonEB

Member
Nate Silver

FWIW, there's about a 4 pt difference between generic ballot polls that included cellphones and those which didn't.​
IIRC, his analysis last week showed that if Dems over-perform at the national level by 2%, they keep the House. This is one of the reasons why I'm slightly optimistic.
 
RustyNails said:
I called it the moment Hoffman lost the primaries to Alexi. Disgrace.

Hoffman was a little dweeb with no organization in the state and would have been eaten alive by Kirk. The fact that Alexi has kept it this close considering his family's bank is pretty amazing.
 

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
jmdajr said:
tomorrow should be fun
It dependson what side you're on for most people but for a political junkie like me I'll enjoy it no matter what the outcome.
 

Krowley

Member
Desperado said:

Inaction is much more dangerous. It's time for both parties to implement real change, and then we can see for ourselves who's approach works better. Things are already fucked, so we might as well try some radical solutions.
 
JayDubya said:
What on Earth do you think a well-regulated militia is?

The militia is and always has been the people; "well-regulated" appears prolifically in writing contemporary to the amendment and during the revolution.

This is nonsense and I've already told you why before. While states typically defined the militia as able-bodied males between certain ages, it was an actual institution, regulated by the States. It is referenced throughout the text of the Constitution several times. The institution of the militia has morphed into the National Guard. And that is what the Amendment was originally intended to apply to. We can, of course, talk about how we should interpret and apply the 2d Amendment in a modern context, but that would require you to abandon your foolish pretense of originalism (or at least apply it faithfully by looking not to the 2d Amendment but to the 9th Amendment).

JayDubya said:
I can see no rational reason to object to the ruling. The majority asserts first amendment limitations on congressional power.

The utter subversion of the principle of popular sovereignty upon which this nation was founded is a pretty good rational reason, for starters.
 
I'd prefer Angle to win. No one would represent the mistake voters made better than her being an elected official on a national level. And in Nevada they'll also get the representation of the Yucca nuclear waste dump, which Angle supports.
 
PhoenixDark said:
I'd prefer Angle to lose. No one would represent the mistake voters made better than her being an elected official on a national level. And in Nevada they'll also get the representation of the Yucca nuclear waste dump, which Angle supports.
In some ways, an Angle win could help push American politics completely over the edge. She's a completely insane, bizarre, racist, simpleton freak.

The system is completely fucked. So maybe we need the insanity of the Tea Party to help destroy the system permanently. Of course, that means things getting much, much, much worse before they get better.
 

GaimeGuy

Volunteer Deputy Campaign Director, Obama for America '16
Krowley said:
Earlier in the thread, someone asked, "Why would anybody vote republican".

The gun issue is really the classic example of why republicans continue to thrive. Right now I couldn't really bring myself to vote for any republican candidates, but I have in the past, and sometimes its based on a single issue, like national security or guns. I may disagree on a million other things, but those are the kinds of issues that can overrule every other concern.
I don't get it..... why? These kinds of wedge issues based on national security and gun rights are almost entirely based on irrational fears. Democrats are almost NEVER about limiting your right to own a gun in the privacy of your own home, just being able to carry it to your child's playground/ to the bar with you while you're drinking/into class at your high school/college. And are we really going to cover the whole "Republicans keep you safe, democrats let your children get slaughtered from crime/terrrorism/commies" thing again? That's another fallacy based on irrational fear.


Right now, I'm more worried about the economy, and over the years I've become much more liberal on economic issues. I favor expansions in entitlement programs, and totally socialized health care, but the idea of another liberal supreme court justice is very unnerving for me. It may even play a role in my presidential choice next time.
Again, why? Your fears of the supreme courtr seemto be related to the fears about gun rights, which, again, shouldn't be a problem unless you want to be able to carry a loaded firearm everywhere and anywhere. And let me tell you, having EVERYONE carry a gun is a lot more scary to me than no one being able to carry one, because one flared temper could set off a giant gunfight. Kind of like mutually assured destruction, except there's a lot more than two participants. I don't think that's a situation anyone would find enjoyable to be living in. I iddn't live through the Cold War, but I don't think anyone enjoyed the feeling that thousands of nukes could reign on them from the heavens at any moment due to a short temper or a radar malfunction or something.

I can also understand why people are disappointed with the democrats. It's not like they've succeeded in providing any of the progressive economic and social policies I would like to see anyway. Everything is so watered down that it's almost like republican-lite. The idea of electing even more democrats as a way of improving this situation makes sense on the surface, but an expansion of democratic power would just mean that more blue-dogs are getting elected, and I'm not sure it would allow for more aggressive legislation.
I agree, the legislation IS republican lite, and that's largely why it disappoints me. Yet you have people arguing that republican-full will be better, and I don't get that. The problem is the fillibuster, the spineless leadership in Harry Reid, and the stonewalling by a large number of senators.

Right now, the main thing I favor is changing the filibuster rules. Maybe if the dems get hammered hard enough and barely hold the senate, they will be inclined to make those adjustments just to keep a toehold on power. We need a country that can act without a 60 vote senate majority. It's crucial.

Agreed. A government which can not act is a failed government.

Also, and this is my liberal side speaking.... The entire legislative branch is already slanted towards more conservative, smaller, rural populations already because the senate's structural design acts as a bottleneck on legislation's ability to pass. You need 50% legislator approval in both the house and the senate to pass legislation. This translates to roughly 50% of the population of the US in the House, but a slightly higher percentage of the population of the US, when you go by its representation in the senate (when the legislature is more liberal, in nature).

When the legislature is more conservative in nature, yo ustill need roughly 50% of the US population (because population is more or less uniformally distributed across the house) to pass the House, but less than 50% population support to passthe senate (because smaller populations, which tend to be more conservative, are overrepresented in the senate).

Since the senate and house both need ot pass legislation,
MAX(PopulationSupportNeededInSenate,PopulationSupportNeededinHouse) is the bottleneck on population support needed for legislation to pass

Clearly, it is tougher to pass more liberal legislation already, because MAX(> 50%, 50%) > MAX(< 50%, 50%). You need roughly 50% pop support to pass conservative legislation, but a higher percentage for liberal legislation, because of the senate's design.

Add in the fillibuster, which makes uniform voting blocks stronger and diverse voting blocks weaker (again, tougher on liberals than conservatives), and the bottleneck in the senate for passing liberal legislation becomes even more lopsided.

Our legislative branch is ideologically slanted towards conservatives, structurally, and the fillibuster magnifies this slant further. As a liberal, I feel persecuted in my own country because my ideology gets less legislative input (My ideology being correlated with certain population demographic, against which the senate is biased)
 
Mercury Fred said:
In some ways, an Angle win could help push American politics completely over the edge. She's a completely insane, bizarre, racist, simpleton freak.

The system is completely fucked. So maybe we need the insanity of the Tea Party to help destroy the system permanently. Of course, that means things getting much, much, much worse before they get better.

More DeMintt style republicans like Angle would also serve to further destroy the "gentlemanly" nature of the senate. Which I also want to see, simply to speed up the death of the filibuster.

Best outcome: dems narrowly hold house, lose a shit ton of Blue Dog dems, keep 52 senate seats, Reid loses. Then we'd have to hope the filibuster talk isn't just talk.
 

Evlar

Banned
Mercury Fred said:
In some ways, an Angle win could help push American politics completely over the edge. She's a completely insane, bizarre, racist, simpleton freak.

The system is completely fucked. So maybe we need the insanity of the Tea Party to help destroy the system permanently. Of course, that means things getting much, much, much worse before they get better.
That's a dangerous game, as "much worse" is an open-ended invitation for fuckwittery. I also feel that reaching a political crisis may end up being beneficial in the long term, but I would far prefer the left asserting itself to precipitate the crisis rather than passively accepting a descent into paleo-nationalism or whatever it is the Tea Party momentum is carrying us toward.
 

Diablos

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Nate Silver

FWIW, there's about a 4 pt difference between generic ballot polls that included cellphones and those which didn't.​
IIRC, his analysis last week showed that if Dems over-perform at the national level by 2%, they keep the House. This is one of the reasons why I'm slightly optimistic.
I am fond of your optimism in times of political turmoil, but I think the fat lady has sung.

Not to mention the media hyping this up to be the biggest bloodbath in American history is going to make people scared/stressed and they'll sit it out.
 
Evlar said:
That's a dangerous game, as "much worse" is an open-ended invitation for fuckwittery. I also feel that reaching a political crisis may end up being beneficial in the long term, but I would far prefer the left asserting itself to precipitate the crisis rather than passively accepting a descent into paleo-nationalism or whatever it is the Tea Party momentum is carrying us toward.
Sure, I think most people would. But that would require the left to be assertive and that's something we both know is never, ever going to happen.
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Krowley said:
Earlier in the thread, someone asked, "Why would anybody vote republican".

The gun issue is really the classic example of why republicans continue to thrive. Right now I couldn't really bring myself to vote for any republican candidates, but I have in the past, and sometimes its based on a single issue, like national security or guns. I may disagree on a million other things, but those are the kinds of issues that can overrule every other concern.


Out of curiosity, how exactly are Republicans stronger on National Security? It seems to me that they have basically made that a talking point, but the truth is, both sides seem to be pretty equal in that regard.
 

DasRaven

Member
Well folks, see you in 48h. I told my uber-wonk self that I'd blackout political media from noon today until noon Wednesday.

Best work & wishes for America whatever tomorrow's outcomes.
 
quadriplegicjon said:
Out of curiosity, how exactly are Republicans stronger on National Security? It seems to me that they have basically made that a talking point, but the truth is, both sides seem to be pretty equal in that regard.

Don't you see... they were there when 9/11 happened!!!!

Edit: Thinking about it now... I would like to read an article about the kindergarden kids that President Bush read a book to after he was alerted to the 9/11 attacks. I would like to hear their thoughts now on that.
 

Cygnus X-1

Member
Darkshier said:
After being a registered Republican since I was 18 and pretty much voting along party lines since, this is the first year I will be voting straight Democrat across the board. Republicans are just straight corporate whores, don't look out for the little guy, so they can kiss my ass.

I urge everyone in California to vote for Jerry Brown for Governor and give a big YES on Prop 19.

Have fun tomorrow everyone.

So much good sense in this post.
 

Diablos

Member
6xvos0.png


:lol :lol :lol :lol
 
quadriplegicjon said:
Out of curiosity, how exactly are Republicans stronger on National Security? It seems to me that they have basically made that a talking point, but the truth is, both sides seem to be pretty equal in that regard.

Well, you obviously forgot.
 

besada

Banned
Can one of my Californian brothers think of me when they pull the lever/throw the switch/scratch the bubble/poke the chad/draw the line for Brown tomorrow?

I voted for Jerry in the '92 primary and always wished I'd been able to vote for him in a winning race. I genuinely like the guy, warts and all.

In return, I'll vote against a metric shit-ton of Texan Republicans.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Diablos said:
I am fond of your optimism in times of political turmoil, but I think the fat lady has sung.

Not to mention the media hyping this up to be the biggest bloodbath in American history is going to make people scared/stressed and they'll sit it out.
I don't think your second sentence will play out that way. But to the first, understand that part of my optimism is so that I don't stress out too much. The notion that we're about to hand the keys over to the pack of raving lunatics who drove us into the ditch in the first place is more than a little distressing, and I'm stressed out enough as it is.

But I'm also realistic enough to know that's likely to happen. To the extent that that I'm optimistic, I base that optimism on data rather than hopes. So that's why you see me saying stuff like, look at the early voting data, or look at the cell phone effect. As opposed to, the Dems will hold on, believe.
 

Krowley

Member
GaimeGuy said:
Again, why? Your fears of the supreme courtr seemto be related to the fears about gun rights, which, again, shouldn't be a problem unless you want to be able to carry a loaded firearm everywhere and anywhere. And let me tell you, having EVERYONE carry a gun is a lot more scary to me than no one being able to carry one, because one flared temper could set off a giant gunfight. Kind of like mutually assured destruction, except there's a lot more than two participants. I don't think that's a situation anyone would find enjoyable to be living in. I iddn't live through the Cold War, but I don't think anyone enjoyed the feeling that thousands of nukes could reign on them from the heavens at any moment due to a short temper or a radar malfunction or something.

Every once in a while a supreme court case will come through and it will come out in my favor by the narrowest margin possible, and it reminds me how easily that could change. A shift of one or two justices would just be huge.

Also, it's true that legislatively, most of my fears are no big deal. The problem with national security issues is that the president has almost total power over those decisions, and doesn't have to rely on any legislative permission to do major things.

When it comes to the supreme court, the issue is similar because once a justice is chosen, they're in there for life, and a few justices can dramatically shift things in one direction or another. If the country doesn't like the decision, it may take dozens of years to rectify the damage.

Presidents choose supreme court justices, and usually the congress goes along with their choice, regardless of ideology, so that means presidents have enormous power over that aspect of government, even more than they have power over legislative things.

Overall, the whole situation just leaves me torn.



quadriplegicjon said:
Out of curiosity, how exactly are Republicans stronger on National Security? It seems to me that they have basically made that a talking point, but the truth is, both sides seem to be pretty equal in that regard.

Very true, lately it hasn't mattered much in terms of actual action. I've been fine with Obama's national security record even though I was worried based on some of his early talking points as a candidate. He's been great in that area.

In truth, he's been a good president overall actually, but he's operating in an impossible environment.
 

Diablos

Member
GhaleonEB said:
I don't think your second sentence will play out that way. But to the first, understand that part of my optimism is so that I don't stress out too much. The notion that we're about to hand the keys over to the pack of raving lunatics who drove us into the ditch in the first place is more than a little distressing, and I'm stressed out enough as it is.

But I'm also realistic enough to know that's likely to happen. To the extent that that I'm optimistic, I base that optimism on data rather than hopes. So that's why you see me saying stuff like, look at the early voting data, or look at the cell phone effect. As opposed to, the Dems will hold on, believe.
Heh. Dino Rossi is apparently closing in on Murray in WA.

Most polling seems to suggest that the Senate won't switch hands, but Gallup is suggesting otherwise, and they're never wrong.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Diablos said:
Heh. Dino Rossi is apparently closing in on Murray in WA.

Most polling seems to suggest that the Senate won't switch hands, but Gallup is suggesting otherwise, and they're never wrong.
Eh, Gallup's model is pretty fucked up this cycle (they have the GOP winning the non-white, non-hispanic vote by ten points) and they're a wild outlier from the rest. Picking the Gallup poll to base your predictions on this cycle isn't a good idea. But I'm not surprised to see you worried about a Gallup poll. :D

And one polls showed that race closing, the rest have been fine.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-wa-sen

Think the difference in our mentality is, you cherry pick the worst-case, outlier poll and freak out, and I look at the potentially good news undercutting the trends. I suspect reality will land somewhere between those tomorrow.

Another reason I'm not too stressed about tomorrow is, no matter what happens we're in for two years of gridlock. Dems had a 59-41 majority in the Senate and couldn't get jack shit done in the past several months. So it doesn't really matter what happens in the House, the Senate was going to choke everything off anyways. It's just a matter of how misterable the GOP can make things for Obama, which range from very to very very.
 

Diablos

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Eh, Gallup's model is pretty fucked up this cycle (they have the GOP winning the non-white, non-hispanic vote by ten points) and they're a wild outlier from the rest. Picking the Gallup poll to base your predictions on this cycle isn't a good idea. But I'm not surprised to see you worried about a Gallup poll. :D

And one polls showed that race closing, the rest have been fine.

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-wa-sen

Think the difference in our mentality is, you cherry pick the worst-case, outlier poll and freak out, and I look at the potentially good news undercutting the trends. I suspect reality will land somewhere between those tomorrow.

Another reason I'm not too stressed about tomorrow is, no matter what happens we're in for two years of gridlock. Dems had a 59-41 majority in the Senate and couldn't get jack shit done in the past several months. So it doesn't really matter what happens in the House, the Senate was going to choke everything off anyways. It's just a matter of how misterable the GOP can make things for Obama, which range from very to very very.

I'm worried about impeachment if the Senate switches. Seriously. I think the Republicans upon learning of taking back the Senate would immediately start looking for anything remotely legitimate.

Obama could still pass things if the House stayed Democratic. Its members would stop getting nervous about polls again and take a stand like they did before. The only reason why it has been so bad for the last several months is Nov. 2nd.
 

bob_arctor

Tough_Smooth
I can't wait till the GOP takes back their country and fixes everything! If things aren't better by Friday though I say we form some sort of loose coalition of like-minded citizens bound together by equal parts anger and stupidity.
 

teiresias

Member
GhaleonEB said:
Another reason I'm not too stressed about tomorrow is, no matter what happens we're in for two years of gridlock. Dems had a 59-41 majority in the Senate and couldn't get jack shit done in the past several months. So it doesn't really matter what happens in the House, the Senate was going to choke everything off anyways. It's just a matter of how misterable the GOP can make things for Obama, which range from very to very very.

It's also a matter of how well the Democrats and/or Obama can steer the narrative over the next two years. I know, I know, Dems being able to steer any kind of narrative is laughable, but they should at least have a better shot at doing it with the GOP potentially having control of one or both houses, and better get the policy obstructionist narrative out there.
 

Evlar

Banned
bob_arctor said:
I can't wait till the GOP takes back their country and fixes everything! If things aren't better by Friday though I say we form some sort of loose coalition of like-minded citizens bound together by equal parts anger and stupidity.
That's UnAmerican!
 

nyong

Banned
Diablos said:
I'm worried about impeachment if the Senate switches. Seriously. I think the Republicans upon learning of taking back the Senate would immediately start looking for anything remotely legitimate.
Fear-mongering. In 2006, the Republicans warned voters that the exact same thing would happen to Bush if the Democrats took Congress. There were some Democrats who had actually drawn up plans to do so, but nothing came of it. Because nailing him on lying about WMDs is sort of hard to do when the head of the FBI, not to mention most of the international intelligence community and our very own left-wing, thought Iraq did as well. Bush was reckless and stupid, but a liar he was not (IMO).

Clinton stupidly and blatantly lied to a grand jury to save his reputation....completely different set of circumstances. Obama will not be impeached.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Another reason I'm not too stressed about tomorrow is, no matter what happens we're in for two years of gridlock. Dems had a 59-41 majority in the Senate and couldn't get jack shit done in the past several months. So it doesn't really matter what happens in the House, the Senate was going to choke everything off anyways. It's just a matter of how misterable the GOP can make things for Obama, which range from very to very very.
Can you elaborate on this Ghaleon? I was meaning to ask you anyway - we all know what this means for Dems politically (doom, apocalypse, etc.) but what does it really mean legislatively? Obviously you're correct in that the good stuff the House passed (HCR with public option if I recall, cap and trade) hit a wall in the Senate anyway.

I can see a GOP-controlled House defunding Obama initiatives like HCR, and impeachment if they go that route (can anyone really see this incoming bunch not do that?), but what are some of the specifics behind the incoming misery?
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
bob_arctor said:
I can't wait till the GOP takes back their country and fixes everything! If things aren't better by Friday though I say we form some sort of loose coalition of like-minded citizens bound together by equal parts anger and stupidity.

At least give them til monday.
Considering the memory of the american public, and that things won't be all roses in 2 years, it will be interesting to watch elections then.
 
nyong said:
Fear-mongering. In 2006, the Republicans warned voters that the exact same thing would happen to Bush if the Democrats took Congress. There were some Democrats who had actually drawn up plans to do so, but nothing came of it. Because nailing him on lying about WMDs is sort of hard to do when the head of the FBI, not to mention most of the international intelligence community and our very own left-wing, thought Iraq did as well. Bush was reckless and stupid, but a liar he was not (IMO).

Clinton stupidly and blatantly lied to a grand jury to save his reputation....completely different set of circumstances. Obama will not be impeached.
:lol

They lied about WMDs and relied on the sketchiest, weakest information possible to justify the war.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
nyong said:
Fear-mongering. In 2006, the Republicans warned voters that the exact same thing would happen to Bush if the Democrats took Congress. There were some Democrats who had actually drawn up plans to do so, but nothing came of it. Because nailing him on lying about WMDs is sort of hard to do when the head of the FBI, not to mention most of the international intelligence community and our very own left-wing, thought Iraq did as well. Bush was reckless and stupid, but a liar he was not (IMO).

Clinton stupidly and blatantly lied to a grand jury to save his reputation....completely different set of circumstances. Obama will not be impeached.
How old are you?

Edit: You should know better, unless you were just oblivious in your teens.
 

nyong

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
:lol

They lied about WMDs and relied on the sketchiest, weakest information possible to justify the war.
What's funny? I think that Bush and Co. convinced themselves that finding WMDs in Iraq was a sure-fire thing. Obviously Bush should be, and essentially was, held accountable for one of the stupidest moves in our nation's recent history.

I still don't think he lied. I think he's a genuine individual, but a bone-headed one. Hell, even Putin stated he admires the guy for his convictions.
 

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
nyong said:
What's funny? I think that Bush and Co. convinced themselves that finding WMDs in Iraq was a sure-fire thing. Obviously Bush should be, and essentially was, held accountable for one of the stupidest moves in our nation's recent history.

I still don't think he lied. I think he's a genuine individual, but a bone-headed one. Hell, even Putin stated he admires the guy for his convictions.
Abort...abort...I repeat, abort now!
 

nyong

Banned
Hitokage said:
How old are you?

Edit: You should know better, unless you were just oblivious in your teens.
Old enough to remember that Clinton, his National Security Advisor, and Secretary of State made comments affirming their belief that he had them. Old enough to remember Jacques Chirac stating that he had them and needed to be disarmed of them. Old enough to remember Wesley Clark stated he not only had chemical/biological weapons, but that he was also actively pursuing nuclear weapons. Etc.

I was in Kuwait during the marine buildup prior to the invasion, FYI.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
nyong said:
I still don't think he lied. I think he's a genuine individual, but a bone-headed one. Hell, even Putin stated he admires the guy for his convictions.
It is known that Cheney lied to Dick Armey.
 

Averon

Member
Any sort of impeachment against Obama will result in a major backlash against GOP and guarantee an Obama win in 2012. Boehner and McConnell know this.
 
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