Nanea Reeves, chief product officer for Gaikai, predicted, "Not all of the current console makers will have one more generation. That will be the big news at E3."
Sigh. Sounds like just a opinion. Obviously.
These next gen rumors are out of control. Maybe because they're most of the threads I visit on GAF, but still.
It shows me first, there's a lot of demand for next gen, many getting restless.
But, it's entirely possible except for the Wii U, it's all way too early. We have all these threads now, and we may well not see PS4/720 until Fall 2014, or almost 3 years away.
BTW, I dont know that the R&D costs for a console need to be "huge". If you use mostly off the shelf stuff, or off the shelf with minor changes. I mean think of slapping together a 399 PC and you get the idea. RSX was basically an off the shelf GPU, and it's held up well. Of course there will have to be some engineering done to move off the shelf parts to a console, but I'm speaking basically of avoiding wild things like Cell, and you'll save a ton right there, and it's probably for the best anyway as programmers didn't love Cell.
Any "huge" costs come more from selling at a loss in the typical console model the first couple years. But even that I dont think has to be unavoidable or cant be minimized, and I expect both players to be more conservative next time with costs. Lets say instead of losing $100 per console at launch, they only lose 50 this time. I think that's reasonable.