BobbyRobby
Member
Hopefully DQVIII will revitalize things a bit.
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[Atari] Japanese industry 40 percent smaller than in 1997 [Crash]
- Thread starter fennec fox
- Start date
I'm not gonna pretend to know what's wrong with the market in Japan. But I would guess instead of blaming one or two big things I'd say it's a wide combination of:
-casualization
-celphonization
-over-all growth (in age) of gamers
-birthrate is WAY down (less youth)
-Sony has very little competition so therefore no reason to compete
-bigger budget games
-less risks, more sequels
-less developer influence, more publisher influence
-bad economy (earlier on), in Asia & a denial of things wrong with the economies in the west
And I think alot of these would apply to the western markets too...especially casualization. I mean look at Hollywood movies, it's either hit or miss, everything is big budget, but most of it (the mainstream stuff) is all the same. One of the reasons I like Nintendo so much is 'cos they seem to be anti-mainstream. Sure the image is bad, but I find the games to be more unique and less influenced by the "Hollywoodization" of games. That said most people still want the glitzy graphics, the big budget stuff, the licenced games based on the latest hit movies and of course sequels. I think we need more balance of low-budget quirky "indy" games that are profitable 'cos they find their niche and give them what they want while there's also the higher-budget glorified "hollywoodized" games that are profitable 'cos they appease the masses. Problem is, alot of times small games get drowned in the shaddow of the bigger games, while big games are sometimes risky 'cos of the hit or miss market. Finding the balance of appeasing the graphics whore in us, while giving us what we want (wether it be easy/pick up & play or deep/complex/story-driven), while remaining fresh at the same time STILL remaining profitable is never going to be found 'cos you can't satisfy everyone.
I think next generation will be interesting though, with Xenon launching early putting pressure, Nintendo going for the unique "revolution" approach and Sony still giving their fans the tried & true/ain't broke don't fix it approach...All while all three platforms will relativly appease the big-budget "hollywoodized" graphic-whoring equally, and eventually (as developers learn the tools) for cheaper! Once they reach that sweetspot of beautiful graphics, cheaper dev. costs & ease of developement it'll put things at an equal level which means developers will have to come up with new things in terms of content, gameplay and uniqueness in order to garner interest/sales.
-casualization
-celphonization
-over-all growth (in age) of gamers
-birthrate is WAY down (less youth)
-Sony has very little competition so therefore no reason to compete
-bigger budget games
-less risks, more sequels
-less developer influence, more publisher influence
-bad economy (earlier on), in Asia & a denial of things wrong with the economies in the west
And I think alot of these would apply to the western markets too...especially casualization. I mean look at Hollywood movies, it's either hit or miss, everything is big budget, but most of it (the mainstream stuff) is all the same. One of the reasons I like Nintendo so much is 'cos they seem to be anti-mainstream. Sure the image is bad, but I find the games to be more unique and less influenced by the "Hollywoodization" of games. That said most people still want the glitzy graphics, the big budget stuff, the licenced games based on the latest hit movies and of course sequels. I think we need more balance of low-budget quirky "indy" games that are profitable 'cos they find their niche and give them what they want while there's also the higher-budget glorified "hollywoodized" games that are profitable 'cos they appease the masses. Problem is, alot of times small games get drowned in the shaddow of the bigger games, while big games are sometimes risky 'cos of the hit or miss market. Finding the balance of appeasing the graphics whore in us, while giving us what we want (wether it be easy/pick up & play or deep/complex/story-driven), while remaining fresh at the same time STILL remaining profitable is never going to be found 'cos you can't satisfy everyone.
I think next generation will be interesting though, with Xenon launching early putting pressure, Nintendo going for the unique "revolution" approach and Sony still giving their fans the tried & true/ain't broke don't fix it approach...All while all three platforms will relativly appease the big-budget "hollywoodized" graphic-whoring equally, and eventually (as developers learn the tools) for cheaper! Once they reach that sweetspot of beautiful graphics, cheaper dev. costs & ease of developement it'll put things at an equal level which means developers will have to come up with new things in terms of content, gameplay and uniqueness in order to garner interest/sales.
SolidSnakex
Member
AniHawk said:
While what the PS2 had might not have appealed to YOU there were alot of games on it that weren't on the DC. alot of "hardcore" gamers like to ignore. For starters you have the most popular sports franchise in the US, Madden. Never released on the DC. You also had Ridge Racer, Tekken Tag Tournament and ofcourse SSX. So by no means was there nothing on the PS2 from the start, and there also were plenty of games at launch for most gamers. You pointed out in a later post that other systems had really big hitters but the PS2 didn't at launch. But that didn't matter because they had a bunch of "good to great" games lined up at launch. This is the big reason why the PS2 is always leading. Because it has a steady stream of games like that with masterpieces along the way. That's how you win, you can't win with just a big game and nothing else.
I still don't know why people claim that Sony had nothing at launch and people were buying the PS2 solely for its future when that clearly wasn't the case. Alot of PS2 launch titles have sold more than the majotiy of DC titles. And that's because alot of people wanted them. It wasn't like the launch lacked quality, it just lacked a really big hitter which it clealry didn't need.
SolidSnakex said:
And the DC didn't have a nice stream of games coming out either? In addition to their sports lineup, Sega had its own franchises plus exclusive games from Capcom and Namco. If the console makers were switched, I guarantee you that the Sega PS2 would have been seen as a large flaw.
I just hope next gen Sony has their system OL out of the box, a "SM64"/"GE007"/"Halo" game, and four fucking controller ports (why they didn't include this in the first place is beyond me). Backwards compatability just wont cut it for me at the get-go if they don't have anything which really stands out.
MightyHedgehog
Member
I'd love to get in on this DC/PS2 thingamajig, but I've already wasted about a hundred hours arguing it on GFAQs... 
Absolutely.
AniHawk said:
Absolutely.
SolidSnakex
Member
AniHawk said:
There were several factors as to why people didn't buy into the DC. One of the main ones being how Sega will drop a console quickly. People saw that and decided just not to buy it. It was too risky for people given Sega's past. The DC really had no chance just based on the general publics feelings toward Sega.
Sony's never really had a big hitter at launch. Even with the PSone, they just had a bunch of good to great games. That could change next gen but I wouldn't count on it. I'm sure they know by now that they have to have 4 ports next generation.
evilromero
Member
It is Sony's fault. But at the same time Nintendo may have mistepped a tiny bit early on and lost the trust of the Japanese market. As a result they turned to Sony, which was pumping out mediocre shit after mediocre shit and to this day people are feeling less inclined to plunk down the doe for more of the same. I don't blame them really (the Japanese market). I feel bad cause Nintendo has now got their full arsenal out and is waving in the corner for attention but the disallusioned Japanese market cares not. Ah, let me end this with: that was my opinion.
SolidSnakex
Member
evilromero said:
LOL Nintendo might have misstepped? MIGHT? They've been screwing up all generation. They've got exactly 1 million seller in Japan, and Mario Sunshine is on track to be the lowest selling "main" Mario game ever. You're making a huge understatement to call what Nintendo's done a "misstep". They've caused this, not anyone else.
And blaming all mediocre games on Sony. Classic.
Actually, GameCube's on track to outperform N64 in Japan. The difference being relatively consistant sales for GCN while N64 saw the majority of sales upfront in it's huge launch push. Comparing the first 3 years of last gen to this gen is disingenous as the change in market leaders ensured a top heavy performance for both N64 and PS2 compared to PS1 and GCN.sonycowboy said:
Then again, hardware isn't everything. If you compared PS1's 1997 software sales to PS2 today, you see a dire situation. None of Sony big flagship hitters (Final Fantasy, Gran Turismo, Crash, Tekken, etc) seem to be managing the same peaks they were last generation... though to be fair, neither are Zelda or Pokemon either.
SolidSnakex said:
Yeah, I don't know what the guys at marketing were smoking, but making the system look as it does was not a smart idea. I thought the commercials were mostly well done up until the very recent "Shrink" ads, but nothing really stuck as a sort of style to the GC's image, and it became the N64 2.
Though gamewise, I think they've been doing an excellent job this gen.
SolidSnakex
Member
The systems design was definetly a mistake. Now launching with a Mario game was even bigger. That basically locked up the GC fate right there. A Mario game at launch is simply a must there's no way around it.
evilromero
Member
I don't think the look of a console is any concern in such a debate. Nintendo's problem was coming forward with a difficult system (N64) that wasn't CD-ROM based. Had they gone the Playstation direction with a similar system, things would be vastly different. But now when I think about it, I can't say if it would be for the better. Still Sony allowed far too many ass-releases to come through and hurt the market I believe as a result. I'm not saying Sony's own software is to blame, because really they put out some of the best games on their system.
evilromero said:
Just because I know it'll be said:
The same can be said about the handheld market. Too much shit has come through the pipes for over a decade, and it shows in the attachment ratio. Also, I'm not sure if Nintendo being in charge of consoles would have allowed less games crappy games to come in either.
SolidSnakex
Member
evilromero said:
You do know that it happens with all big systems, right? The NES, the SNES, the PSone, and now the PS2 and every GB. It's because the small developers go to those systems because the games have the best chance of selling. Sony could stop the releases but there's no real reason to. Most of those games are ignored.
I'm one of the biggest Nintendo nuts on this forum, but I can admit when they've made mistakes this generation. All of their mistakes are mainly image ones, which didn't really bother them 'cos they seemed to not mind what people perceived them as nor did it effect their profits. But this E3, when Reggie said something to the effect that Nintendo is getting rewarded with more marketshare (thus more profits) 'cos Nintendo is giving players what they want, I think Nintendo has awakened to the fact that they need to listen to what people want. Then they show the Zelda that everyone DID want to make that comment hold true. The mistakes are (just off the top of my head) here:
-lame launch ad's
-not enough TV ad's
-Zelda cel shading thing
-no Mario @ launch
-ignoring MS as any sort of threat
-too Japanese focused (it's good, but they need more outreach to the west)
-when a game comes out on PS2 *and* X-BOX but *not* on GAMECUBE it gives the impression that it's a dying system
-very poor possitions at rental & retail
-being often times ignored by the press and thus the mainstream media
-not matching the competition for features
-giving the perception that they are underpowered *and* a kiddy company with their console design
-making purple their focus color for the console
But I believe that Nintendo is and is going to continue to rectify these (mainly image) problems. I think they're going to make a system that LOOKS serious and then they will be taken more seriously next generation. The confidence they all glowed with this E3 was awesome and they backed it up...they're changing their image, it's just hard to do when they're sorta "stuck" with the lil' cube design as a centerpeice of that image until next generation.
-lame launch ad's
-not enough TV ad's
-Zelda cel shading thing
-no Mario @ launch
-ignoring MS as any sort of threat
-too Japanese focused (it's good, but they need more outreach to the west)
-when a game comes out on PS2 *and* X-BOX but *not* on GAMECUBE it gives the impression that it's a dying system
-very poor possitions at rental & retail
-being often times ignored by the press and thus the mainstream media
-not matching the competition for features
-giving the perception that they are underpowered *and* a kiddy company with their console design
-making purple their focus color for the console
But I believe that Nintendo is and is going to continue to rectify these (mainly image) problems. I think they're going to make a system that LOOKS serious and then they will be taken more seriously next generation. The confidence they all glowed with this E3 was awesome and they backed it up...they're changing their image, it's just hard to do when they're sorta "stuck" with the lil' cube design as a centerpeice of that image until next generation.
DrGAKMAN said:
Yeah. Hopefully Nintendo's FINALLY coming around, and hopefully people will realize that before they disappear into a permanent niche, 3rd party, or obscurity.
I think Sega's starting to turn around for the first time in years too. Phantasy Star is back (and not just an OL title, it may seem), and so is Shining Force.
Now only if they could get Yuji Naka to make a great Sonic game in 3D like how the Sonic Adventure 2 levels were, among a Panzer Dragoon "Saga II," NiGHTS II, Shenmue III, Super Monkey Ball 3, a very well done Crazy Taxi, with decent advertising, that company may finally get back on its feet.
It all seems so simple. I mean, I see it, why don't these companies?
evilromero
Member
It's true the GBA has as much shovelware as the PS2 does, and I wish that were something both companies would try to manage. Because video games are still in the fragile state to where some consumers think one crappy game represents the whole. And I still think Nintendo's major problems were its lack of releases, first and third party from the first-half of the N64's life. Had they been a little more prepared or able to meet demand they would probably be on equal footing with Sony in the console market.
And yes, far more than the image problem, Nintendo's main mistake was not taking its rivals seriously. That I feel was their most recent and problematic misstep. But they are surely coming around, but just a tad too late. Xbox now has its place ingrained in the US market. Nintendo still has a chance to make their next console a 1st place seller in Japan next time around with Pokemon, Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and Mario Party series. If Nintendo represent those franchises successfully right from the start, they may be able to trip up PS3 in Japan and set the pace for the remainder of the lifespan.
And yes, far more than the image problem, Nintendo's main mistake was not taking its rivals seriously. That I feel was their most recent and problematic misstep. But they are surely coming around, but just a tad too late. Xbox now has its place ingrained in the US market. Nintendo still has a chance to make their next console a 1st place seller in Japan next time around with Pokemon, Pikmin, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros and Mario Party series. If Nintendo represent those franchises successfully right from the start, they may be able to trip up PS3 in Japan and set the pace for the remainder of the lifespan.
I think in general, we need a new way to play video games. I'm not talking about something like Seaman, that game with the baraccas or dance dance revolution. I mean we need new hardware that will revolutionize the way we play ALL games.
From the beginning up until now, it's always been handheld controller, a console and a viewing screen. The only major advancements to controllers have been the analog stick and force feedback. I say those because all gamepads of the major consoles have adapted them.
Don't ask me what this new hardware should be. I have no idea, if I did, I'd be rich. Maybe it was the Power Glove and it just got released just a bit too early for it's time. Maybe it was virtual boy. Who knows. All I know is, that old controller-console-screen formula ain't gonna be working much longer; no matter how you try to dress it up with the words "online gaming".
Nintendo is trying to alter that formula with two screens, but I was hoping for something else... like a halographic display. =P
From the beginning up until now, it's always been handheld controller, a console and a viewing screen. The only major advancements to controllers have been the analog stick and force feedback. I say those because all gamepads of the major consoles have adapted them.
Don't ask me what this new hardware should be. I have no idea, if I did, I'd be rich. Maybe it was the Power Glove and it just got released just a bit too early for it's time. Maybe it was virtual boy. Who knows. All I know is, that old controller-console-screen formula ain't gonna be working much longer; no matter how you try to dress it up with the words "online gaming".
Nintendo is trying to alter that formula with two screens, but I was hoping for something else... like a halographic display. =P
sonycowboy
Member
evilromero said:
I can't think of much PS2 shovelware that is in any way comparable to the PSOne. Pretty much all of the 3rd party games are multiplatform now, mediocre or not. PS2 certainly gets some exclusive "niche" titles, but this generation it appears that those companies that just want to "dump" titles on the market are doing it on at least two of the three systems.
It's just so expensive to make games, that it appears the hundreds of crap games that came out last generation, just aren't viable this generation. At least, not yet this generation.
SolidSnakex
Member
evilromero said:
The lack of releases is only one of their problems. Their main problem is that they're still too arrogant. They don't want to follow industry trends, and while some people might defend this by saying "Well they're trying to innovate instead of following trends", why can't they do both? They need to follow trends. When Sony and MS announced that they were doing DVD playback, Nintendo should've been on board. Just because you allow that feature doesn't mean you're taking away from the game play feature of the system as Nintendo would like you to believe. When Sony and MS announced they were going online, Nintendo should've done the same. They give their competitors way too many advantages by not matching them.
And while those franchises are nice, with the exception of SSB and Pokemon none of those games are really "that" big in Japan. They certainly can't compete with Sony when they have FF, DQ, and Gran Turismo all of which are incredibly big in Japan. Nintendo can't rely solely on their 1st party to win, because that's only catering to an already existing userbase that really isn't growing anymore. They've got to get more 3rd parties. And while they're doing better now, it's still not good enough because 3rd party game sales still lag behind 1st party sales by a decent margin. Till they can figure out how to fix this problem they aren't going to take 1st place anywhere. I don't even think alot of Nintendo's fans understand the importance of 3rd parties as shown by the Driver 3 responses. Yah the game might not be the best, but it's going to be one of the biggest 3rd party titles this year and yet some Nintendo fans seem glad that it's not on the GC.
After seeing the new Zelda, this is what I think:
It signfies either 1) A sign of a radical change at Nintendo or 2) capitulating to the audience (probably a first for them in a long long time). Both of those show varying degrees of a philosophy change in their home console market. It looks like they'll continue to make their games but if you look back at this generation so far (both released and unreleased games) you'd notice of trend of appealing to both audiences (casual and hardcore)... plus this is the first generation we've gotten the Fire Emblem games on US shores... Most of this is due to rise of Intelligent Systems popularity, which I hope they exploit to it's fullest potential.
Iwata's Nintendo is just now taking shape
It signfies either 1) A sign of a radical change at Nintendo or 2) capitulating to the audience (probably a first for them in a long long time). Both of those show varying degrees of a philosophy change in their home console market. It looks like they'll continue to make their games but if you look back at this generation so far (both released and unreleased games) you'd notice of trend of appealing to both audiences (casual and hardcore)... plus this is the first generation we've gotten the Fire Emblem games on US shores... Most of this is due to rise of Intelligent Systems popularity, which I hope they exploit to it's fullest potential.
Iwata's Nintendo is just now taking shape
evilromero
Member
I agree. Nintendo should've followed the trend of DVD-playing consoles. Back in the N64 days they should've gone with CD-ROM based units but they didn't. And if Nintendo can secure something like FF13 for the Revolution, that may be all it needs in Japan along with its already stable list of franchises. And don't underestimate Pikmin. While it doesn't have the numbers to compete with the likes FF or DQ its time may be coming. Nintendo has been cross-promoting its characters with famous icons, like it did with Stafi, Pikmin and Nintendo Puzzle Collection. If they can continue this and land the big 3rd party hitters then they won't have a problem removing Sony from first in Japan. American is a much bigger problem altogether though.
SolidSnakex
Member
Mashing said:
I'm not buying into the change that quickly. I remember last gen when alot of people thought Nintendo was changing their image with those Conker and PD ads. Then they started doing their typical ads afterwards. If this happens over the long term i'll believe it. I'd still like to see their Japanese studio do a truely adult oriented game. Not something like GTA (although I wouldn't mind that), maybe a realistic racer or something. Just to show that they really are going to start to cater toward both markets.
"If they can continue this and land the big 3rd party hitters then they won't have a problem removing Sony from first in Japan."
THat's something easier said than done considering the sales of GC games in Japn.
I'd say there's a significant difference between NCL's internal software R&D trends and NOA's advertising campaign trends. This really isn't the same as before.SolidSnakex said:
Isn't that what we're seeing with the new Zelda?SolidSnakex said:
GameCube games sales aren't in a unique position, PS2 software is also in a slump compared to PS1. The only platform which is seeing healthier overall Japanese software sales than it's predecesor would be GBA, and even there the platform's shining star (Pokemon) seems to have taken a hit.SolidSnakex said: