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[Bo130]

Yay, #39. My best one yet

[EDIT]

[NDS] 430k (+25)
[WII] 310k (-115)
[PSP] 220k (+6)
[PS2] 180k (-42)
[360] 160k (-10)
[PS3] 155k (-4)
[GBA] 85k (-2)

Nintendo DS was expected to be a bit off. Wii and PS2 killed my prediction into pieces.

 

[Lucky]

Yes! 60th! That's way better than 125th and out of more people too. I guess knowing who to copy off of paid off.

 

[donny2112]

But the NPD was delayed a week, Donny...

Canada wasn't, though. Canada has been found to give too good an approximation for the U.S. to let people predict off of it as part of the "competition." As such, we try to have the prediction thread closed before those numbers come out.


Points Results

I went ahead and reduced the points for getting the order of systems correct from 15 to 10, as suggested in last month's thread.

     July 2007                   Last 3 months                2007 Overall        
1.   ingrin             149.69   JoshuaJSlone        405.64   JoshuaJSlone        868.74
2.   RobertM            142.2    Clever Pun          397.74   GhaleonEB           867.76
3.   B_Rik_Schitthaus   137.97   GhaleonEB           394.1    BuzzJive            865.44
4.   Colonel Mustard    137.91   cvxfreak            391.63   donny2112           864.89
5.   womfalcs3          136.23   Jokeropia           389.97   sonycowboy          861.85
6.   Dalauz             134.04   donny2112           388.52   Clever Pun          860.32
7.   Jtyettis           132.41   Bildi               386.03   argon               859.93
8.   dk_                132.38   rage1973            384.33   duderon             827.43
9.   lochnesssnowman    129.73   Branduil            380.5    rage1973            826.07
10.  Drensch            129.32   Drensch             379.38   Orgen               820.38
11.  HocusPocus         128.92   duderon             378.66   Kurosaki Ichigo     815.38
12.  DayShallCome       128.75   Odysseus            378.56   starship            814.98
13.  Psychotext         128.43   USD                 377.94   Heidir              813.69
14.  CitizenCope        128.05   Brakara             377.15   Jokeropia           738.77
15.  davepoobond        127.92   Kurosaki Ichigo     377.13   DayShallCome        727.95
16.  RevoDS             127.85   jamesinclair        377.09   Branduil            707.82
17.  duderon            127.81   argon               376.84   PhoenixDark         696
18.  dammitmattt        127.66   BuzzJive            376.72   TheKurgan           694.81
19.  Taurus             127.58   MikeMyers           375.58   Frankfurter         692.95
20.  Frillen            127.51   DayShallCome        375.43   bycha               679.37
21.  Restricted_Area    127.5    sonycowboy          374.55   Lock                674.34
22.  HylianTom          127.18   jey_16              374.42   AniHawk             672.62
23.  Alkaliine          127.16   Taurus              373.79   djtiesto            655.25
24.  Metalmurphy        127.16   Heidir              373.33   hadareud            651.42
25.  laserbeam          127.09   apujanata           372.97   Earthstrike         628.7
26.  Bo130              126.87   jepense             372.57   beermonkey@tehbias  627.06
27.  bycha              126.81   dammitmattt         372.25   apujanata           626.42
28.  JJConrad           126.73   Orgen               372.14   Bildi               620.88
29.  Threi              126.71   Freki               371.03   Odysseus            609.59
30.  RBH                126.53   tinderbox           370.92   Haunted One         605.23

JoshuaJSlone zips into the lead!

 

[sonycowboy]

Points Results

I went ahead and reduced the points for getting the order of systems correct from 15 to 10, as suggested in last month's thread.

JoshuaJSlone zips into the lead!

How many folks got the ordinal position correctly this month?

And now that I've gotten top 20's and some platforms, I'll see if we can work on those SW predictions. With Bioshock, Madden, Brain Age this month and obviously Halo 3 next, we should have a good amount of interest.

I'm thinking just asking folks for top 10 and give points based on the sales percentage and ordinal position just like the HW. No, platform thing because PSP, XBX, GCN, PS2, GBA would be impossible.

We'd have to work on the format because it would be nice to have the parser do it, but game titles are a bit tougher to have a defined format for.

 

[ex0du5]

The difference between the Canada and U.S. numbers pretty much showed that Madden 08 really was a 360-system seller.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

JoshuaJSlone zips into the lead!

Wow, that's pretty crazy considering I didn't even make the top 30 this month. My especially low Wii guess killed me. But then, looking at the other people at the top of the "Last 3 months" and "2007 Overall" lists, they weren't much present at the top of this month, either, so I guess my gain was relative to them.

 

[Stop It]

48. Stop It - 206,000

Holy shit if it wasn't for Wii, which I usually highball (And this month I don't typical) I would have been within 100k, heh, best month for ages though

Edit: And I beat Pachter, brilliant.

 

[donny2112]

How many folks got the ordinal position correctly this month?

Zero. The combination of Wii > DS and 360 > PS3 and PS2 > PSP killed it. Five people predicted Wii > NDS (RobertM, lollerskates, tha_con, JCBossman, and Gahiggidy) and only three of them had full predictions (RobertM (#2), lollerskates (#28), and tha_con (#183)). RobertM had PS3 > 360, and lollerskates and tha_con had PSP > PS2.

The 15 -> 10 point change affected past months' points.

I'm thinking just asking folks for top 10 and give points based on the sales percentage and ordinal position just like the HW.
...
We'd have to work on the format because it would be nice to have the parser do it, but game titles are a bit tougher to have a defined format for.

We could do a no-numbers ranking prediction for a couple of days to decide on a top 10, and then just predict numbers for that top 10. We would then be able to use standardized titles to allow a parser to gather the results. That's assuming Cheesemeister is willing to program that into his parser.

 

[B_Rik_Schitthaus]

4. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 158,000

Not bad considering how I've done the last couple of months.

Little tip, times the VG****z weekly by 4.

 

[Fuzzy]

Not bad considering how I've done the last couple of months.

Little tip, times the VG****z weekly by 4.

:lol

 

[Michan]

Hey, I beat Patcher.

 

[Odysseus]

not bad to be in the top 30 for the last three months and overall despite some lackluster predictions these past couple of months.

 

[Frankfurter]

Great, Wii/DS completely killed my predictions (170k off on these two). Atleast I was only off 2k on PS2 and 5k on X360

:/

 

[bud]

odysseus has the powa.
do not doubt him.

 

[Odysseus]

odysseus has the powa.
do not doubt him.

no joker willis? did 2008 already come and go?

edit: somehow i find the new avatar even more disturbing.

 

[Taurus]

Wii and DS really fu*ked up my predictions. Well, at least I wasn't the only one. :lol

 

[ComputerNerd]

My prediction:

[Wii] 360,000
[NDS] 540,000
[PSP] 230,000
[PS2] 200,000
[360] 180,000
[PS3] 160,000

The DS owned me. Wii was not bad, all things considering. The others I was really close.

My biggest fault is I didn't know we were doing GBA. That added 87K, and about 50 places, to my score.

 

[Square2005]

Canada wasn't, though. Canada has been found to give too good an approximation for the U.S. to let people predict off of it as part of the "competition." As such, we try to have the prediction thread closed before those numbers come out.

1. I believe my predictions were posted before the Canada nos. were released.
2. The Canada nos. would have thrown me (& everyone else) way off if I had made my predictions off of Canada sales.

 

[donny2112]

1. I believe my predictions were posted before the Canada nos. were released.

Yes. However, it wouldn't really work to set the deadline at "whenever the Canadian numbers come out," so we pick a time before that. Yours was about 3 hours too late. Sorry.

2. The Canada nos. would have thrown me (& everyone else) way off if I had made my predictions off of Canada sales.

This month, yes. May's winner based their numbers off of the Canadian sales, though, so we started setting the limit the day before scheduled NPD release for June and July.

 

[Bildi]

I stuffed up bigtime this month - I didn't check my numbers but I know the Wii and PS3 sold way more than I bargained for. Lets move on to next month!

 

[donny2112]

Lets move on to next month!

The prediction thread for August will be posted in less than two weeks. That's what happens when you delay NPD for a week: the next month's sales come much quicker!

 

[cvxfreak]

donny, how did I get so high? I did poorly for June. :lol

 

[Clever Pun]

Wow, that's pretty crazy considering I didn't even make the top 30 this month. My especially low Wii guess killed me. But then, looking at the other people at the top of the "Last 3 months" and "2007 Overall" lists, they weren't much present at the top of this month, either, so I guess my gain was relative to them.

I'm right behind you, and I'm in the same boat for this month. I think most of us "regulars" were totally caught off guard this month, and some of the more volatile guessers ended up being better off.

Still, I'm pretty happy with my past 3 months/2007 overall ranking considering I'm more of a lurking Sales-Ager

 

[Galactic Fork]

Stupid GBA, I forgot to predict it. Next month GBA! Next Month!

[PS2] 210,000 - 222k
[PSP] 230,000 - 214k
[PS3] 165,000 - 159k
[360] 160,000 - 170k
[NDS] 480,000 - 405k
[WII] 350,000 - 425k

Nintendo in general screwed me. I was pretty close with everything else, but 75k off for both the Wii and the DS. (75k over for ds, under for wii.) Acutually, I think they should cancel each other out. Oh plus the GBA's 85k off, but I blame Cheesemeister for that.

 

[duderon]

I'm climbin up the charts, boys. Watch out!

 

[Cheesemeister]

Stupid GBA, I forgot to predict it. Next month GBA! Next Month!

[PS2] 210,000 - 222k
[PSP] 230,000 - 214k
[PS3] 165,000 - 159k
[360] 160,000 - 170k
[NDS] 480,000 - 405k
[WII] 350,000 - 425k

Nintendo in general screwed me. I was pretty close with everything else, but 75k off for both the Wii and the DS. (75k over for ds, under for wii.) Acutually, I think they should cancel each other out. Oh plus the GBA's 85k off, but I blame Cheesemeister for that.

[PS2] 210,000
[PSP] 230,000
[PS3] 165,000
[360] 160,000
[NDS] 480,000
[WII] 350,000

User		PS2	PSP	PS3	XBX	360	GBA	NGC	NDS	WII
GreenGlowingGoo	210000	230000	165000	0	160000	0	0	480000	350000

July Hardware Figures
Wii 425 k
Nintendo DS 405 k
PlayStation 2 222k
PlayStation Portable 214k
Xbox 360 170k
PlayStation 3 159k
Game Boy Advance 87k

Score = PS2 diff + PSP diff + PS3 diff + 360 diff + GBA diff + NDS diff + WII diff

= |210k - 222k| + |230k - 214k| + |165k - 159k| + |160k - 170k| + |87k - 0| + |480k - 405k| + |350k - 425k|
= 12k + 16k + 6k + 10k + 87k + 75k + 75k
= 281k

161. GreenGlowingGoo - 281,000

That's what I have.

 

[TwinsDad]

All I can say it I wasn't last on the List. 182 Isn't something to tattoo on your arm as a souvenir, but it's not last shameful.

Maybe I actually need to do some analysis instead of pulling numbers out of the air. I'll try that next month.

 

[FrankT]

4 or 5 weeks for August NPD?

 

[Odysseus]

4 or 5 weeks for August NPD?

4

regular 5 week periods are march, june, september, and december

 

[Markster]

Wow, thank god this has been bumped! I was so busy last week I completely missed it.

#197...

maybe I shouldn't feel so glad...

 

[Haunted]

I'm barely hanging in there in the Top 30 of 2007.

July was my worst month so far. Fucking Wii!

 

[donny2112]

I finally got to doing the software predictions for July! The good news is that everyone was in the top 5. The bad news is that there were only five participants. :lol We didn't get software $ for July (that I saw), so I didn't include that point value. Only myself and Sho_Nuff82 listed it, anyways. See the second post of this thread for the rules on software.


July 2007 NPD Software Prediction Rankings

   Username     units  order    total
1. donny2112    57.35     69   126.35
2. seattle6418  55.07     71   126.07
3. dammitmattt  48.91     69   117.91
4. Sho_Nuff82   43.47     53    96.47
5. Stopsign     19.41     30    49.41

Congratulations, donny2112!

Oh, wait. That's me. Yee-haw! :lol

1-3 had 8 of the top 10 games listed in their top 10, which obviously helped a lot.