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What Game Theory Says About Trump’s Trade Strategy

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/arti...game-theory-says-about-trump-s-trade-strategy

Financial markets were of two minds last week about the impact of mounting trade tensions between China and the U.S.

On the one hand, the escalating tit-for-tat tariffs still affect only a relatively small part of the two countries’ economies. The consensus baseline remains that the measures should not have a significant and lasting downward impact on the economy and stocks and, ultimately, may help bring about trade that is still free but fairer.

On the other hand, each escalation (the latest is the July 10 announcement by the Trump administration of its intention to impose import duties on an additional $200 billion of Chinese products) increases the market’s downside risk scenario of slipping, either on purpose or inadvertently, into a full-blown trade war that would significantly damage corporate earnings and the overall growth outcome.

Looks like Pres. Trump plans to go all the way by being willing to put tariffs on all $505 billion of Chinese goods the U.S. imports.
 
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Super Mario

Banned
It's funny to see the Liberals complain about "wages being stagnant since X date" but expect jobs just to come from thin air. China has so many unfair, uncompetitive, and straight immoral practices over us, it isn't funny. Even Democratic politicians know had bad China screws us, but are afraid to give Trump any credit.

Any time a market correction takes place, its not going to immediately be sunshine and rainbows. The goal is to fix the damage done to our economy by their unfair practices for the long-term. Unfortunately, there is no easy way to do it. China does not want to lose any edge. Every day that we wait to take action, China gains more and more power.
 

Alfadawg

Banned
This is dumb.

If it wasn't for cheap Chinese goods, the West and especially Western companies would be in the shit.

Good bye cheap smartphones and tech!
 

KonradLaw

Member
It's funny to see the Liberals complain about "wages being stagnant since X date" but expect jobs just to come from thin air. China has so many unfair, uncompetitive, and straight immoral practices over us, it isn't funny. Even Democratic politicians know had bad China screws us, but are afraid to give Trump any credit.
Stagnant wages are entirelly the fault of Americans and the goverments they've chosen. Doesn't mean relationship with China doesn't require correction, but it still won't work. Trump is too inept. The Yuan is already falling, which will take plenty of bite from tarrifs. Plus he has destroyed any continuity of foreign relationships, so China can just wait him out. It doesn't matter what Trump does, in 2-6 years he will be out and China can weather the storm. The best way to handle China long-term would be to strike alliance with EU, but Trump wants to start trade war with EU too, so yeah..he's fucked.
 
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Arkage

Banned
It's funny to see the Liberals complain about "wages being stagnant since X date" but expect jobs just to come from thin air.

Wage stagnation complaining is always within context of how it compares to the dramatic increases seen in CEO pay and profit margins. It’s not that the companies aren’t making money, is that we’re inside an economic system that demands companies hoard their wealth as much as possible for stock investors/owners.
 
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Panda1

Banned
Its amazing - i read a report about Trump and fiance and its NEGATIVE!!! NO way I would have guessed he is an idiot and eveything he does will lead to the destruction of America!
 

Super Mario

Banned
Wage stagnation complaining is always within context of how it compares to the dramatic increases seen in CEO pay and profit margins. It’s not that the companies aren’t making money, is that we’re inside an economic system that demands companies hoard their wealth as much as possible for stock investors/owners.

Which I'm glad why you brought that up. That is a common argument from the loser mentality.

Do you or do you not believe that as corporations get larger, the CEO is responsible for more, and should earn more money? I'll take the richest CEO in the world for this example, Bezos. Should Bezos of 20 years ago make the same rate that he does today? Why or why not? I think what you have a problem with is mega corporations and just how much they control. Also, don't read over deceptive studies that cover the richest CEOs in the world as the baseline for CEO pay.

Even then, there's studies that show the top 100 athletes still earn more than the top 100 CEOs. To add further insult, the athletes take WAY more of a percentage of their industries' revenue as a share of pay vs the CEOs from their own. However, where is that argument? Or are the athletes the diverse heroes of society while the CEOs are white, male, oppressors? Again, loser mentality.
 
Its amazing - i read a report about Trump and fiance and its NEGATIVE!!! NO way I would have guessed he is an idiot and eveything he does will lead to the destruction of America!

This report is pretty favorable.

Whether by accident or design, the U.S. is now playing in an uncooperative game that it is well placed to win in relative terms. For many reasons, trade tensions are less damaging for the U.S. than for China, whose growth model is still notably dependent on foreign markets. This relative advantage is already evident in the performance of the equity and currency markets of the two countries.

While this advantage certainly isn’t protection against some absolute damage, it gives the U.S. a stronger hand to play. The situation resembles the 1980s, when President Ronald Reagan embarked on a military spending race with the Soviet Union, a contest America was destined to win, albeit with costs and at considerable risk.

Basically Pres. Trump is following in the footsteps of his idol Ronald Reagan.
 

Arkage

Banned
Which I'm glad why you brought that up. That is a common argument from the loser mentality.

Do you or do you not believe that as corporations get larger, the CEO is responsible for more, and should earn more money? I'll take the richest CEO in the world for this example, Bezos. Should Bezos of 20 years ago make the same rate that he does today? Why or why not? I think what you have a problem with is mega corporations and just how much they control. Also, don't read over deceptive studies that cover the richest CEOs in the world as the baseline for CEO pay.

Even then, there's studies that show the top 100 athletes still earn more than the top 100 CEOs. To add further insult, the athletes take WAY more of a percentage of their industries' revenue as a share of pay vs the CEOs from their own. However, where is that argument? Or are the athletes the diverse heroes of society while the CEOs are white, male, oppressors? Again, loser mentality.

I don't think Bezos' contribution to society is worth 143 billion dollars. It's an absurdly sky-number, one that could only be reached by gaming an amoral economic system geared for exploitation by company owners. I don't care about mega corporations or how much they control. I care about them lobbying against minumum wage increases and forcing part time positions so they can deny health care, all in the name of increasing already ludicrous profit margins, because lord knows we need to make stock holders happy. Bezos has a pretty shit record as far as how he treats Amazon employees as well with a recent strike happening, which doesn't help your case for him.

I'm not saying it's all CEOs fault. There are plenty of CEOs that make normal rates for their expertise. But there are plenty making absurd amounts of money, never mind those in the financial sector that generate wealth by playing with investments, essentially proving the adage that you need money to make money. Stagnating economic mobility also plays an important role. Those that start at a disadvantage are, on average, going to stay disadvantaged more than they would've been in the past.

"It is increasingly the case that no matter what your educational background is, where you start has become increasingly important for where you end,” Carr told me. “The general amount of movement around the distribution has decreased by a statistically significant amount.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/07/social-mobility-america/491240/

Additionally, athletes aren't in charge of wages for a company, they are the employee, so that analogy is worthless.
 
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Gander

Banned
It's funny to see the Liberals complain about "wages being stagnant since X date" but expect jobs just to come from thin air. China has so many unfair, uncompetitive, and straight immoral practices over us, it isn't funny. Even Democratic politicians know had bad China screws us, but are afraid to give Trump any credit.

Any time a market correction takes place, its not going to immediately be sunshine and rainbows. The goal is to fix the damage done to our economy by their unfair practices for the long-term. Unfortunately, there is no easy way to do it. China does not want to lose any edge. Every day that we wait to take action, China gains more and more power.

I had to speak to this wages are stagnate because all the money in this country flows to the top., China has nothing to do with that. Your CEO is pulling hundreds of millions while the common person has to fight to get to 15/ hr
 
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which in this context is being framed as being stupid.

What's stupid about it?

The US is probably in a great spot from a game theory standpoint if it's leaders are serious about this.

Trump’s Trade War May Spark a Chinese Debt Crisis

The EU fight is probably the only dispute I could imagine the US losing if the goal is to try and go "beyond tweaks to the existing system by delivering changes in the overall global economic landscape that favor the U.S. in both relative and absolute terms."
 
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