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MVG: Xbox has lost its way
- Thread starter Bullet Club
- Start date
Alebrije
Member
Something weird happened after Xbox 360, they move from becoming the King of the hill to their actual situation. Yep a Lot of mistakes has done Microsoft but also I give a Lot of credit to this guy :
Ps4 destroyed Xbox 360 legacy. Also Sony Managed to put all thier core studios to deliver great games.
Xbox Lost it's way because Microsoft did.a Lot of mistakes meanwhile Sony Made a Lot of great moves. When Xbox tried to do something it was over..."jokes about Xbox has no games" was the norm. Now after years of falls Xbox decided to do what it's dad Microsoft does, Buy instead of being creative.
So.dont forget Mark Cerny (for the Good) it's part of Xbox current status..
Ps4 destroyed Xbox 360 legacy. Also Sony Managed to put all thier core studios to deliver great games.
Xbox Lost it's way because Microsoft did.a Lot of mistakes meanwhile Sony Made a Lot of great moves. When Xbox tried to do something it was over..."jokes about Xbox has no games" was the norm. Now after years of falls Xbox decided to do what it's dad Microsoft does, Buy instead of being creative.
So.dont forget Mark Cerny (for the Good) it's part of Xbox current status..
HeWhoWalks
Gold Member
They were never King of the Hill.
Nope. Microsoft did that.
Everything else is circumstantial. But, they are in the situation they are in because of themselves.
Kurotri
Member
Do you believe in a 2025 launch? Just curious.
UltimaKilo
Gold Member
No, that’s not it at all. Microsoft never much cared about Xbox until Phil convinced the higher ups that a spending spree would increase profits and stave off Apple & Google by building an ecosystem. Now investors expect profit, and a lot of it.
Buying Activision to get into the mobile space was stupid. They could have done that organically for cheaper themselves.
I have seen many organization heads bet their careers on huge acquisitions. I remember a very successful University President acquiring a hospital for billions, rather than build a new one, and it was a disaster. She was ultimately fired.
Phil Spencer has to deliver, or he’ll be gone too (hopefully).
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HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
I believe at one point they wanted a 2025 launch and try to align their Xbox/PC with GTA6 but seeing more and more people say 2026
Nothing has been said to me that changes my mind they are still shooting for 2025 though
Kurotri
Member
Thank you. Very interesting tbh.
LegendOfKage
Gold Member
Xbox 360, XBox Live Arcade, and Xbox Party Chat. Xbox definitely had a way. A lot of mistakes were made after that, but there was a time when almost everything they did was good.
Duchess
Member
Actually, that's Moses
SneakersSO
Member
2025 ain't happening, and no one knows if 2026 is either.
All I've heard on hardware is that things are very, very much in the air. And 3rd parties are openly telling MS they have had enough, apparently.
Killjoy-NL
Member
A lot of the success of X360 was due to Sony dropping the ball with the launch of PS3 and the first half of that gen.Something weird happened after Xbox 360, they move from becoming the King of the hill to their actual situation. Yep a Lot of mistakes has done Microsoft but also I give a Lot of credit to this guy :
Ps4 destroyed Xbox 360 legacy. Also Sony Managed to put all thier core studios to deliver great games.
Xbox Lost it's way because Microsoft did.a Lot of mistakes meanwhile Sony Made a Lot of great moves. When Xbox tried to do something it was over..."jokes about Xbox has no games" was the norm. Now after years of falls Xbox decided to do what it's dad Microsoft does, Buy instead of being creative.
So.dont forget Mark Cerny (for the Good) it's part of Xbox current status..
Clearly Sony learned from it and MS didn't.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
I appreciate your response but I knew as of late summer last year MS was looking hard at a 2025/26 nextbox launch and maybe they have shelved that plan entirely but nothing has been said to me they went full stop
Kepler was on this track as well at one point but how far it has progressed recently I don't know
Deerock71
Member
Technically, that would be Moses.
Radical_3d
Member
This would be crazy. Even 2026 seems crazy to me. I’m not against 6 years generations but this time it’s different since in almost 3 of those years has been impossible to get stock.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
It does "feel" too early but with how some current games run give me more power, hell give me the most power you can for GTA 6
Radical_3d
Member
I too want more power. I’m in the PS5Pro bandwagon. But I’d feel like people that are not ultra hardcore privileged middle age gaffers like us are going to have a different perspective. After the pandemic scarce and the longest Inter generational period ever I see people running out of patience if they obsolete their consoles so early. I mean, hurting your own consumers is what ended Sega.
Edit: grammar. And also release then and they may end up against Switch 2: good_luck.gif
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Ronin_7
Member
CLW
Gold Member
Don’t think God will be lifting MS’ curse
Dick Jones
Gold Member
jm89
Member
With those incredibly tanking sales I have no idea how ms execs allow Xbox to greenlight another console.
Safer bet would be what is rumoured and just offload the hardware to oems, and Xbox just focus on software including the os that runs that hardware. But oems will have to take a huge gamble in hopes it's worth it.
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Clear
CliffyB's Cock Holster
I dunno, I'm not convinced he sees what the real problem is.
The length of time it takes to create AAA content is one of the biggest reasons why Game Pass was such a godawful idea in the first place.
Dev cycles becoming extended each gen has been evident for the entire history of videogames, as has the increasing manpower demands multiplying up the production cost over time.
This has never been something in dispute or surprising.
Its only been tolerable because the market has expanded sufficiently over the same amount of time to mitigate this predictable uptick. Now as growth has largely stalled out (although the increase in demand during Covid made them hopeful), the birds have finally come home to roost.
This is basically what's driving the industry towards live service models. They need the recurring income in order to justify the extreme cost involved in setting huge teams on multi-year odysseys to create the "next big thing".
Small games won't cut it because in 99% of cases they'll be marginal returns; for every breakout hit there are scores of also-ran's and some which are straight loss makers. Quantity and variety are great for gamers, but they increase competition and reduce mindshare across the market. Back at the dawn of XBL arcade they were a novelty after years of uniform pricing on consoles. And with the concept of "indie"-style being cool and popular in the media to hype up every new release it was a potent offer. These days, not nearly so much on both counts...
The maybe unpalatable truth is well-received titles like Pentiment and Hi-Fi rush do well enough to cover costs and deservedly keep their developers rolling along, however they aren't creating growth for their parent platform(s) and are thus deemed inessential.
This is why massive consolidation always leads to cuts; everything gets judged according to the metrics of the corporate "body" and so are subject to the whims of C-suite strategizing.
Anyway, getting long so in summary: Xbox overreached with their acquisitions in the sense that the margin between expenditure and income has gotten too thin, so now they are trimming back by jettisoning the least profit-worthy units regardless of the quality of their individual output. Basically they can't grow their business fast enough to keep pace with their expenditure, so they need to double-down on high potential return franchises and be more opportunistic with their catalog product.
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Shake Your Rump
Member
She also said they learned their lesson after closing Lionhead in 2016, but that was a lie.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
The pressure is massive and rising.
Orutisu Furio
Member
XBOX still hasn’t recovered from their disastrous 2013 XBOX ONE reveal keynote presentation which is now infamous, and has been mocked several times over, and is a meme on the internet and on YouTube. That was one of the most disastrous keynotes I’ve ever seen a company give, and is leagues beyond the poorly received Sony PS3 reveal keynote back in 2006.
XBOX has had over a decade since then of severe malaise in releases and output, along with very bad management and decision making. It is now all just coming together to bite them in the ass in a perfect storm.
As a console, XBOX is for all intents and purposes over, and there’s absolutely no reason to purchase an XBOX considering you can play all XBOX games on PC and eventually it appears also on PS5 and the next Nintendo console. There’s no point in buying an XBOX, except for the most dedicated XBOX fans of which there aren’t many, especially outside the US.
The vast majority of consumers appear to want to invest in PlayStation and Nintendo platforms. XBOX from what I see just doesn’t have the same energy and mindshare it did during the 360 era, and I don’t see it ever coming back. There’s nothing I can see in the horizon that gives me any positive notions and what we’re seeing unfold before our eyes is a giant clusterfuck of bad company PR and also severe lack of direction.
It’s sad because the original XBOX in the early 2000s and the 360 after that were great consoles, and back then Microsoft was definitely in their prime in console gaming. There was tons of hype, energy, investment from developers and public fanfare. That was the best Microsoft was ever going to be with XBOX.
XBOX has had over a decade since then of severe malaise in releases and output, along with very bad management and decision making. It is now all just coming together to bite them in the ass in a perfect storm.
As a console, XBOX is for all intents and purposes over, and there’s absolutely no reason to purchase an XBOX considering you can play all XBOX games on PC and eventually it appears also on PS5 and the next Nintendo console. There’s no point in buying an XBOX, except for the most dedicated XBOX fans of which there aren’t many, especially outside the US.
The vast majority of consumers appear to want to invest in PlayStation and Nintendo platforms. XBOX from what I see just doesn’t have the same energy and mindshare it did during the 360 era, and I don’t see it ever coming back. There’s nothing I can see in the horizon that gives me any positive notions and what we’re seeing unfold before our eyes is a giant clusterfuck of bad company PR and also severe lack of direction.
It’s sad because the original XBOX in the early 2000s and the 360 after that were great consoles, and back then Microsoft was definitely in their prime in console gaming. There was tons of hype, energy, investment from developers and public fanfare. That was the best Microsoft was ever going to be with XBOX.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I'll just say, that the beginning and end of all MS problems have always been poor management.
Here is a way to put things into perspective. MS, has enough AAA studios, that even if you gave each one at least 5 years to make a game, they could have a rotation where they release 4-5 AAA games every year. And this is something they could have been doing since 2017. Other publishers have done managed to do well while having far less studios and money than MS does.
This talk about growth that MS keeps peddling, is nonsense and unrealistic. As far as the consoles business goes, you try and sell as many consoles as possible every gen, and when the new gen starts, you start at zero and do it all over again. Its not a coincidence that the average total console sales have remained about the same for over 4/5 generations of consoles. Thats the console business, its on them to find a way to thrive under those conditions, as opposed to trying to rewrite the rule book.
Puscifer
Member
Honestly that sounds like heaven and I would jump ship from PC *IF* done properly
Kurotri
Member
It DOES sound like something unique in the sense that they can offer a "console" experience that neither Nintendo nor Playstation can offer. They'd be able to finally stand out in a way instead of trying to butt heads with Sony by going the traditional way. But everything sounds nice at first. I will never not be pessimistic when it comes to MS which I find a bit sad but it is what it is.
Alebrije
Member
Yep, after 360 Xbox decided to behave as a monopoly like Microsoft, problem they were not Microsoft, Xbox 2013 keynote was inspired with Microsofts ADN..this is the moment Xbox killed itself.
I got original Xbox to play PC games like Morrowind, I got 360 to play online. I was dissapointed with Xbox One because was weaker and not offered something new or different like previous consoles. Waited to Xbox One X. But never got a Series X because lack of games ( great exclusives). The trend with Xbox consoles is that they don't offer something different and now with Gamepass as Xbox flagship on other systems they are useless.
diffusionx
Gold Member
It sure feels like shutting down Tango was the last straw for a lot of Xbox fans, considering that is the one studio within their umbrella that has outperformed expectations over the past... TEN YEARS! Even IGN's Game Scoop, normally a very middle of the road and mellow podcast (and I like them for it) was absolutely outraged by this and talking about how badly MS is managing these studios and these games. It seems like they have lost a lot of the goodwill that they somehow retained even after bumbling for 10 years ("year of Xbox", "immature tools", "DX12 secret sauce", "wait for the next showcase").
I don't know where MS is planning to move - I've thrown out my thoughts but I can't know for sure - but it feels like wherever they go they will be doing it without that support.
I don't know where MS is planning to move - I've thrown out my thoughts but I can't know for sure - but it feels like wherever they go they will be doing it without that support.
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CliffyB's Cock Holster
Its all about burn-rate. If you have a big team, a bunch of contractors, and a multi-year project schedule you're tens, even hundreds of millions, in the hole before seeing a penny back on that investment. Budgets and balance sheets are constantly being monitored, as are fluctuations in the general state of the market, making it a constant battle to justify the sticking with the plan.
Its the root of pretty much every problem in publishing; the bigger the bet, the more they have to try and hedge by pandering to DEI, shaving off quirks and interesting ideas to appease the casuals, excessive monetization implementations, content streamlining for marketing purposes etc.
And of course when everything is bunched together under a singular platform brand and vision, the same eye of Sauron is watching every project, big or small.
fallingdove
Member
I don't know that I would consider that a “next generation” but whatevs. As you say, I feel like this is much more along the lines of an Xbox branded PC.
Epilepsy?
clarky
Banned
its not the frequency of releases anymore its a quality issue. They released plenty in the last 12 months shame most of it was mid to shit.
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Edmund
Member
How many more times do Xbox fans have to wait for next year/wait for the next E3?
Now it's wait for 18 months?
Lmao.
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nial
Member
Yeah, that's why Hellblade 2 being the first one in 7 months isn't a good look at all, lul.
clarky
Banned
No issue with a gap like that personally. Plenty to play, like I said its a quality issue mainly these days.
SneakersSO
Member
No offense, but even this info came from a time where very difficult decisions at Xbox hadn't even been made yet. Heck, when PS5 HFR was announced, there were no plans to shut down a single studio.I appreciate your response but I knew as of late summer last year MS was looking hard at a 2025/26 nextbox launch and maybe they have shelved that plan entirely but nothing has been said to me they went full stop
Kepler was on this track as well at one point but how far it has progressed recently I don't know
The situation at Xbox is very fluid. Lots of these plans are out of date right now.
GHG
Gold Member
Not sure how much you can/can't divulge, but when you say "had enough" is it from a dev environment perspective or is it more to do with the sales potential on the platform?
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
From some of his past posts, I think it's a combination of both. Teams are stretched thin on two platforms with low sales and it's to the point that it's not worth supporting.
Ports have a cost, some seem to think they just magically happen without much effort.
And a new Xbox in 2025? When the Series X/S are already not sustainable themselves? Why would devs want a third system in the mix? Especially when no one will take advantage of it, given how small it is.
But would be interested in him clarifying this point
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James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
BTW - I agree with a lot of this video.
GamePass is a terrible and failed business concept. Good thing David Jaffe made God of War on the creative side of things instead of running the business side of things, because GamePass has been a destructive tool that has failed to grow members and is also responsible for the death of many studios in the name of cheap gimmicky growth.
I don't see any way GamePass doesn't get significantly restructured. Day and date AAA releases for that cost is just killing your teams.
GamePass is a terrible and failed business concept. Good thing David Jaffe made God of War on the creative side of things instead of running the business side of things, because GamePass has been a destructive tool that has failed to grow members and is also responsible for the death of many studios in the name of cheap gimmicky growth.
I don't see any way GamePass doesn't get significantly restructured. Day and date AAA releases for that cost is just killing your teams.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
No offense taken at all as I welcome insight
Just shooting a text off to a few I know and they fully believe it’s full steam ahead for next box and still “much sooner than PS6” so going to be curious how they move forward.
Closing studios is bad enough PR, both camps have done it, but to walk back next gen at this point especially since Bond has said it twice now the backlash would be unreal even towards their games imo.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I get that, but whose fault is that? That is what Sony means by organic growth and what MS has never seemed to be able to understand.
When we say a game cost xxxM$ to make, its not like after pre-production the publisher just plunked down $200M and said, "make it happen". No, every studio has an annual running cost. In a 250 strong studio with an average annual salary of $100k/year (and this is a very lofty extreme example here) that comes up to about $25M/ year. You can throw in another $5M in miscellaneous expenses. So that's about $30M/year on a AAA studio in active development.
If such a studio spends 5 years making a game, then the "project" cost is around $150M spread out over 5 years.
Again, this is a very extreme example as in most cases, most studios have an average salary head cost of under $50K/year.
Things like marketing, are not billed to the individual studio, but rather covered by the publisher as they would have an annual marketing budget. And then you have third party (or even 1st party third party contractors...etc).
In effect, when a company like sony does their fiscal yearly reports, the running cost of every studio they have is factored in. And for the PS business to be successful, whatever first-party games they release that year, need to pay for all their first-party studios (in a perfect world) or at worst come close to breaking even. And then they make their profits form the third-party sales of games on their platform.
This is why you don't go buying all the publishers in the world and having almost 30 separate $30M+/year AAA studios. That means that every single year, you are spending almost $1B to just keep your studios kicking. This means that now, the stakes are higher for everything. Also means that your floor for success is unrealistically high. Cause now, every game(s) you release in that year has to generate over a billion dollars in revenue. To just break even.
And MS did this to themselves. That's where MS is at now. And the worst part is, they lack both the user base or even the business model to recoup those kinda costs. And then the icing on the cake is that they lack the managerial guile to even course correct.
James Sawyer Ford
Gold Member
I think people are more confused about the idea of a new Xbox in 2025/2026 than they are about a new hardware form factor sometime around 2028 or later.
2025/2026 just seems super aggressive for a "new gen". I don't believe it will be a new gen. If they release it, it will be their Xbox One X of this gen. A little too late, even if powerful, because true next-gen is right around the corner.
Mr.Phoenix
Member
I personally believe there will be a next Xbox. I just don't think it would be anything like what the traditional console used to be.
I believe that Xbox as a platform would become more open than any console before it, even allowing third-party OEMs to make their own version of it. Basically, I believe that "Xbox" will mostly become a glorified gaming OS platform. That can work across "consoles", handhelds and desktop PCs and laptops.
This way... the official "Xbox" console, could actually be an upgradeable $1000 Xbox Surface.
I also think that the whole 2025/2026 new console is just propaganda or fud being spread by MS. They know this gen is over, so rather than keep talking about their failed outing, its best to talk up the next best thing.
I mean, we know what is out there right now, and we know what a console made in the traditional sense at a $5-600 price point would look like if made this year or next, which is what they opuld have to be doing for it to release next year or the year after that.
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Chiggs
Gold Member
The Xbox 360 was an outstanding platform.
HeisenbergFX4
Gold Member
Maybe, I just know it’s a Zen 5 ”nextbox” if that means it’s actually a new gen I dunno, maybe a souped up Series X?