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Is Nintendo likely to be the first to introduce a next-gen console?

K.Jack said:
My only question is on the likelihood of Wii2 equaling the PS3/360 technologically.


Dude you are lucky if any games on the Wii right now come close to the best looking original Xbox games. You think that Wii2 will equal PS3 or 360?
 

Eteric Rice

Member
mysticstylez said:
Dude you are lucky if any games on the Wii right now come close to the best looking original Xbox games. You think that Wii2 will equal PS3 or 360?

That's the developer's fault. It should be able to match the Xbox pretty easily.
 

Althane

Member
mysticstylez said:
Dude you are lucky if any games on the Wii right now come close to the best looking original Xbox games. You think that Wii2 will equal PS3 or 360?


I contend Super Mario Galaxy looks better.

And given that the hardware would be much cheaper in 5-6-7 years, yeah, it's easy enough to see a Wii 2.0 having as much power as a 360. Probably not a PS3, but a 360, easily enough.
 

Link Man

Banned
maniac-kun said:
catapult.gif

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:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol:lol

Thread justified.
 

Vaxadrin

Banned
Althane said:
I contend Super Mario Galaxy looks better.

And given that the hardware would be much cheaper in 5-6-7 years, yeah, it's easy enough to see a Wii 2.0 having as much power as a 360. Probably not a PS3, but a 360, easily enough.

Quick! I wanna see some screenshot comparisons of SMG to the best looking Xbox games, stat!
 

Althane

Member
Vaxadrin said:
Quick! I wanna see some screenshot comparisons of SMG to the best looking Xbox games, stat!

What is the best looking Xbox game? Never played the original much, so I don't know what's considered the most beautiful/good looking game, but I'll look for some good screenies of it if you give me a title.
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Althane said:
What is the best looking Xbox game? Never played the original much, so I don't know what's considered the most beautiful/good looking game, but I'll look for some good screenies of it if you give me a title.

Either Conker or Ninja Gaiden.

It's a toss up between those me thinks.
 

Althane

Member
Going for Ninja Gaiden, since I liked it:

galaxy1012a_2_2.jpg


vs.

1095282180.jpg


And

1095893144.jpg


vs.

galaxy1012a_8.jpg


(Apologies if images are bad, first time doing this here...)


Editing: I would call it about even?
 

StuBurns

Banned
Well I think Mario clearly lost, but Mario isn't the best looking Wii game by a long way.
After seeing the FFCC: The Crystal Bearers someone posted earlier in the thread I have a new found respect for the Wii, it looks like it's more developers not bothering to tackle the console from that perspective.
 

ElFly

Member
By 2009, the PS3 will surpass the 360 WW (maybe even in America), and MS will want to take a little of the thunder the PS3 gets by being the most powerful console.

So, they will show a trailer of Halo 4 or something running in the Xbox 720 or whatever, and people will droll. Release for Xmas 2010.

MS will want to repeat the success of the 360. And they will look back at what they did right and wrong with the OXbox and the 360. And one thing will be clear.

Late to the market: bad
Early to the market: good

They will aim for the hardcore and graphic whores again.
 

Vaxadrin

Banned
Eteric Rice said:
Hard to compare those two considering one is trying to be realistic, while the other is a colorful platformer.

I wouldn't call NG realistic by any stretch.

As for the comparison, that looks fairly even to me.

I would also say, in motion, MP3 is the best looking Wii game.
 

Lobster

Banned
Althane said:
Going for Ninja Gaiden, since I liked it:

galaxy1012a_2_2.jpg


vs.

1095282180.jpg


And

1095893144.jpg


vs.

galaxy1012a_8.jpg


(Apologies if images are bad, first time doing this here...)


Editing: I would call it about even?


ninja-gaiden-20040623054050885_640w.jpg


vs

soulcalibur-legends-20070919074741476.jpg


Thats Ninja Gaiden though. Not black. Black wipes the floor with SCL.

Soul Calibur Legends is no means a graphical showcase on Wii though.
 

Norml

Member
I doubt Nintendo leads in IQ ever again.

The Show's crowd looks better then most of Wii main people in game=sad.
 

Stitch

Gold Member
Riddick was one of the best looking xbox games. Or maybe the best looking game on xbox...
can't find any good screenshots but it looked reeeaaally good.

67047d859581965664df02f2a63654e384d7c2e4134ba.jpg
 
Vaxadrin said:
I wouldn't call NG realistic by any stretch.

As for the comparison, that looks fairly even to me.

I would also say, in motion, MP3 is the best looking Wii game.
This is the truth. I love SMG, but MP:3 is still the best looking Wii game to me.
 
jeffy_johnson said:
Yea because the Wii is going to kill gaming hur hur hur.

No. The poster I was quoting basically said that nobody who's buying the Wii cares about graphics so Nintendo shouldn't either. By that logic, it shouldn't have a successor, right?
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Eteric Rice said:
Curious, what's the frame rate that Ninja Gaiden and Riddick ran at?

NG was 60 I'm pretty sure, and I think Riddick was at 30, but I could be wrong.
 

Lobster

Banned
Stitch said:
Riddick was one of the best looking xbox games. Or maybe the best looking game on xbox...
can't find any good screenshots but it looked reeeaaally good.

67047d859581965664df02f2a63654e384d7c2e4134ba.jpg

Yeah it looks crazy good.

riddick_042904_4_1083274222_640w.jpg

riddick_042904__042904_009_640w.jpg

riddickulish_012604_002_640w.jpg


I could definitely see it fitting in with this gen.
 

fernoca

Member
Nah, not likely..even when they were "#2/3" (heck even #1)..they still released their consoles/handhelds after the others; sometimes even a year later...

So now that they are "back on top"....and swimming in money is even less likely... :p
 

Tmac

Member
They will, eventually, release a next gen console. In a couple years ps3 like consoles will cost a hundred bucks, so why not?

But i bet m$ will be the first, of course if they don't give up and quit hw market.
 

Innotech

Banned
stuburns said:
I have no doubt in the possibility of vastly increasing the hardware, but I was more talking about the games. If MGS4 takes a team three times the size of MGS2, and takes twice as long, it's going to cost at least four times as much to develop, but the possible install base is less, so the maximum profit is way less then half of what it was the generation before.

If the same were to repeat next gen every developer would struggle to make profit.

But I think development time is the biggest thing, people are pissed that FFXIII won't be out till probably fall 09, but with next gen development cycles being so much longer if FFXV comes out on PS4 it'll take the whole generation just to develop.

this. The industry is starting to see that the cost and development schedule is outpacing the benefits. Im really not sure how game developers and publishers will continue making substantial profit with this kind of business model. Especially now that preinstalled hard drives and enormous storage probably makes pirating even easier. How long can the industry maintain this current level of profitability?
 

Innotech

Banned
2 main things stand out in my mind separating HD visuals from the wii. These are bloom effects/shine, and antialiasing. Apply both effects to any quality wii game and they would look very similar. This is why Super Mario Galaxy looks so great. It utilizes both as does Brawl to a degree. Games using these effects will look the best on Wii.
 

Viddie

Member
I think people have been saying for months now the control novelty will "wear off", face it, it aint gonna happen.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
ComputerNerd said:
Generation winners are never first to release their next system.

meaning that they'll get behind the curve and lose the next-gen?

(like the PS3 hm hm hm)
 

Eteric Rice

Member
Innotech said:
this. The industry is starting to see that the cost and development schedule is outpacing the benefits. Im really not sure how game developers and publishers will continue making substantial profit with this kind of business model. Especially now that preinstalled hard drives and enormous storage probably makes pirating even easier. How long can the industry maintain this current level of profitability?

That's why I think Nintendo will just release a new Wii in about two years that is just a normal Wii that can upscale to HD.

It'll be around at least as long as the 360.
 
They may in a few years release a Wii+ or something that comes with a bigger storage space or whatever is currently wrong with the Wii that will be fixed in a 'well duh?' kinda upgrade... but theres no way the true successor to the Wii will be here any time soon.

Nintendo have never given a crap about what the others are doing and now especially that they're #1 again they're not about to start.

The real Wii2 will show up when and only when in Nintendo's eyes its absolutely needed.
 

Salazar

Member
I don't so much care when the next generation starts, or who starts it. What matters to me, I think, is who gets tapped to do the launch games - lessons learned or kudos and trust garnered from last time around.
 
Nintendo will probably show off what their next console looks like in 2010. No tech specs or interface until 2011. No release until late 2011-ish.
 

Staccat0

Fail out bailed
No I think we'll see MS hit the scene with BD and maybe some interesting new control options. MS seems VERY interested in stealng some of Wii's new friends.

I think sony will have to ride this storm out if they ever wanna get out of the red.

Nintendo will probably release some updated wii, but I imagine them doing something crazy for the next gen again. I don't think Super Wii Will be a Wii 2.0.
Maybe it will be a handheld/console hybrid. Maybe it will be like the eyetoy. Maybe all the games will be distributed digitally.
I'll go crazy and make a prediction.
Super Wii's specs:
-Roughly the same power as current x360
-Will use 16Gig 32gig or larger SD cards instead of Sony's BluRay tech
-Will Stream memory from SD cards (using similar tech that theyll use on games) So no permanent installed HDD (saves costs to manufacture)
-System will be portable and resemble a laptop (camera built in like current gen laptops)
-Will use camera/ controller input
-Will plug into a TV to provide bigger picture and extra funtionality
-Will release in 2013

I'm just gonna make those predictions for the hell of it. I'd appreciate it if someone would call me on it later:lol
As outlandish as it sounds it definitely would be doable by 2013 and do another rope-a-dope like wii did.
 

Neo C.

Member
Althane said:
Educate me, please: What major improvements have to or can be made onto graphics? Speaking from my perspective, there's not much more I could ever ask to make a game better looking than Crysis.

Granted, I suck at art, and really don't have much of an idea about what I'm talking about.
As a few already answered, there's still room to improve. Though the question is wrong because the hindrance is neither technology nor "art" (photorealism is art too). The real questions are: Is the return of investment still good enough if they double or triple the production costs? Is it worth to work even longer on the games? Is it worth to have an even higher break even than today? If a company answers them all with "yes", then we will see some big improvements. Though I doubt there will be many companies which can do it.
 
Wollan said:
Sony will be last.

That's the only thing we can affirm safely.

pgtl_10 said:
Why are people/analysts saying that Nintendo will release Wii 2 in 4-5 years? Nintendo is notorious for being the last out of the gate.

1. SNES was released two years after Genesis.

2. N64 was released one year after PSX.

3. GCN was released one year after PS2

4. Wii was released one year after Xbox 360.

If Nintendo is the first to release a console it would totally unorthodox.

Good point. Nintendo always play the "wait and see" game.

Anyway, let me say one thing about graphics: the problem is not the HD or the storage space or what you want, but the lazyness of developers.

Holy shit guys: Wii's specs are crap, but we saw Super Mario Galaxy: it looks ***ing great !
If developers would push the system to its limits, we wouln't have so much crap and so little quality games on the console.
I don't think that a more powerful CPU and GPU would have changed so much the situation, if Wii would output only SD graphics. I mean: many Wii games look loke bad Gamecube games or even like N64 games.

Probably only HD graphics would have bumped the things a little bit, but even here, there is always the same problem: how many X360 and PS3 games are effectively using the power of the two systems ? Only selected, high budget titles.

The problem aren't the specs of the system, but the teams that work behind the games. As long as the Wii has B teams working of its games, no matters which CPU and GPU and RAM are present, we will see crap.
 
Resetting the userbase to 0 isn't the most attractive choice for the market leader unless they've got a good reason to. Nintendo didn't rush into the SNES or N64, but was beaten to the market by a year by Genesis and PS1/Saturn. Sony didn't rush into PS2 or PS3, but was beaten to the market by a year by Dreamcast and X360. The rush to change is when your current system has blown a hole in your wallet, like Saturn or Xbox.
 

tino

Banned
I doubt the next Wii will be as powerful as the PS3, here is my reasooning

One of the reason Wii CPU had such a moderate speed boose over the Cube was that Nintendo couldn't get IBM to overclock the archtecture considerably and still maintain backward competibility. So the Wii had a controller overhhaul but barely 2X speed boose over the Cube.

For the next console, its nobrainer to assume Cube/Wii backward competibility. So Nintendo can either overclock the current architechture as much as they can or do the PS2 approach: keep the Wii hardware inside Wii2 and start a new CPU. But that will go against Nintendo's current price/size philosophy. So I predict the Wii2 will have another interface/controller revolution but a modderate 2X-3X speed bump. That will match the PS360's power in theoretical term but the middle ware will not be as matured as the PS360 platforms. You will end up gettinng 2-3 title bettter looking than the best PS360 games but the rest will be not as good. Kind of like the PS2/Wii games difference.

When will it come out will entirely depend on how well the Wii sale 2 years from now.
 
Mr. Pointy said:
Nintendo will probably show off what their next console looks like in 2010. No tech specs or interface until 2011. No release until late 2011-ish.
They still haven't given much in the way of official Wii tech specs. Official releases don't talk about things like processor speeds or amounts of RAM.

tino said:
One of the reason Wii CPU had such a moderate speed boose over the Cube was that Nintendo couldn't get IBM to overclock the archtecture considerably and still maintain backward competibility. So the Wii had a controller overhhaul but barely 2X speed boose over the Cube.

For the next console, its nobrainer to assume Cube/Wii backward competibility. So Nintendo can either overclock the current architechture as much as they can or do the PS2 approach: keep the Wii hardware inside Wii2 and start a new CPU. But that will go against Nintendo's current price/size philosophy.
In 2006, it wasn't possible to further overclock Gekko/Flipper beyond 50%... but now it will be? This time around the speed increase to the existing chips made enough sense because they'd changed priorities on how much time/money to spend on different aspects of the system. However, dragging on the same line for a third generation would be more inefficient than it's worth.

Really, including essentially 2000-era chips (or future downsized versions) in a 2010+ console shouldn't be much of a cost in dollars, space, or energy. PS2 included more recent hardware and wasn't more expensive than PS1 (at least at launch). DS did launch at a higher price point than GBA, but given that Nintendo has been essentially sold out of Wii since launch at $250 I don't think they'd be too afraid of a $300-350 launch next go.
 

nightside

Member
tino said:
I doubt the next Wii will be as powerful as the PS3, here is my reasooning

One of the reason Wii CPU had such a moderate speed boose over the Cube was that Nintendo couldn't get IBM to overclock the archtecture considerably and still maintain backward competibility. So the Wii had a controller overhhaul but barely 2X speed boose over the Cube.

For the next console, its nobrainer to assume Cube/Wii backward competibility. So Nintendo can either overclock the current architechture as much as they can or do the PS2 approach: keep the Wii hardware inside Wii2 and start a new CPU. But that will go against Nintendo's current price/size philosophy. So I predict the Wii2 will have another interface/controller revolution but a modderate 2X-3X speed bump. That will match the PS360's power in theoretical term but the middle ware will not be as matured as the PS360 platforms. You will end up gettinng 2-3 title bettter looking than the best PS360 games but the rest will be not as good. Kind of like the PS2/Wii games difference.

When will it come out will entirely depend on how well the Wii sale 2 years from now.


I find kinda unlikely that IBM wouldn't be able to keep backward compatibility with one of its own CPUs...it really makes no sense IMO
 

justchris

Member
No, Nintendo won't be the first to release a new console, and you're all missing the single biggest reason why.

Nintendo's focus this generation is on casual and non-gamers. Gamers are pretty easy, tell them you've got new hardware, and a new Zelda/Mario/Halo/God of War/whatever, and they'll buy your next system pretty much on faith and hype.

Casuals, on the other hand, are the same people who ignored 3 or 4 perfectly good formats between VHS & DVD, who keep their TVs for 10+ years or until they break down, and who cell phone companies have to give $100-$200 off a new phone to get them to upgrade. For any pricy purchase (which a gaming console is), the general public is a hard sale, and it's going to take more to get those customers to upgrade from Wii to Wii 2. The longer Nintendo sticks with the Wii, the easier it'll be to sell the Wii 2 to their new audience, because that audience will be confident they won't have spent $$$ on something they're only gonna get a few years of use out of.

And while Nintendo can't be trusted to make good hardware decisions, I just can't see them making such an asinine financial choice. This is the same company that stuck with the NES for 7 years, and probably would have held off releasing the SNES had the Genesis not released and started selling pretty well, cutting into their potential profits.

This generation could very well turn out to be the longest ever. Nintendo won't want to release too early for risk of alienating the casuals. Microsoft will want to stick with the 360 a little longer than usual so that it can be a profitable enterprise for them (although they'll probably still release first just because it worked so well for them this time). And Sony will want to stick with the PS3 for a while to encourage the spread of Blu-ray, and bring costs on that down so that their next-gen console doesn't suffer from sticker shock the way the PS3 did. My prediction? No one releases a new console before 2012.
 

Haunted

Member
thefro said:
I like how people think this when Wii is still sold out 2 1/4+ years after launch (and with Smash, Mario Kart, and Wii Fit all coming out).

They haven't even done one price drop or come out with new colors of the console yet.
Or introduced new bundles. All things the competition already did and they still got outsold by Wii. It'll be scary when Nintendo actually starts with these effective tactics.

Many on GAF just don't get it.
 
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