No, Nintendo won't be the first to release a new console, and you're all missing the single biggest reason why.
Nintendo's focus this generation is on casual and non-gamers. Gamers are pretty easy, tell them you've got new hardware, and a new Zelda/Mario/Halo/God of War/whatever, and they'll buy your next system pretty much on faith and hype.
Casuals, on the other hand, are the same people who ignored 3 or 4 perfectly good formats between VHS & DVD, who keep their TVs for 10+ years or until they break down, and who cell phone companies have to give $100-$200 off a new phone to get them to upgrade. For any pricy purchase (which a gaming console is), the general public is a hard sale, and it's going to take more to get those customers to upgrade from Wii to Wii 2. The longer Nintendo sticks with the Wii, the easier it'll be to sell the Wii 2 to their new audience, because that audience will be confident they won't have spent $$$ on something they're only gonna get a few years of use out of.
And while Nintendo can't be trusted to make good hardware decisions, I just can't see them making such an asinine financial choice. This is the same company that stuck with the NES for 7 years, and probably would have held off releasing the SNES had the Genesis not released and started selling pretty well, cutting into their potential profits.
This generation could very well turn out to be the longest ever. Nintendo won't want to release too early for risk of alienating the casuals. Microsoft will want to stick with the 360 a little longer than usual so that it can be a profitable enterprise for them (although they'll probably still release first just because it worked so well for them this time). And Sony will want to stick with the PS3 for a while to encourage the spread of Blu-ray, and bring costs on that down so that their next-gen console doesn't suffer from sticker shock the way the PS3 did. My prediction? No one releases a new console before 2012.