MDSLKTR
Member
Jesus, what an amazing lesson in revisionism.
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Xbox One: 5 million units shipped to retailers
- Thread starter Chezzymann
- Start date
boredandlazy
Member
One of these things is not like the other. One of these things just isn't the same...
Not saying SO won't be good, not even saying it won't potentially sell well. But putting it in the same boat as established multimillion selling franchises is taking things a bit far.
shungokusatsu
Member
Maybe if it releases during a drought or if xbone drops to $350. Outside of that, I just don't see it. The studio's reputation has been tainted due to their lackluster performance and generic games over the last generation. Consumer aren't as easy to fool at this day and age, and I think the console sales have shown that.
Shogun1337
Junior Member
That's what I still don't get. Why don't they just, y'know, lie? Man this is such a funny grey area. What stops them from just saying "We have sold 5 million units to consumers", and if they got called out, back-pedal as usual?
Edit: I don't know, is that slightly illegal?
kinoki
Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Let's say that Microsoft has a contract in place which nets them 1m new Xbox Ones every single month for the first 12 months. That's comparable to what Sony is producing and I think Microsoft was planning the same level of success. That would mean that there are 2m units unsold to retailers. Yikes!
cripterion
Member
How about peeps that ordered through MS stores?
Resistance 3 is one of the best games on PS3. They last 3 games they made in Burbank are Crack in Time, Resistance 3 and FUSE so I'm very excited for Sunset Overdrive. The output from their NC studio has notably improved as well.
No, EA bailed on FUSE and the EA Partners program in general well before FUSE came out. The deal they got from Microsoft is pretty damn good, as they get to own their IP and the support of a publisher that knows how to actually spend money to promote a game.
Sold-in is the proper terminology to use when talking about units shipped. Polygon did nothing wrong with that tweet.
Well said bro. This shit is so old already.
Aarglefarg
Member
It is a correct term, but it is jargon that leads to misunderstandings and I'd not use it with a general audience.
unknownstranger
Member
Wasn't Microsoft at 3.9 million shipped in 2013? Seems like a really small amount shipped in 3 months.
PS4 has more than two mil lead. Selling it as "PS4 has 2 mil lead" means Xbox sold through 5mil.
I'd say it's not Polygon's responsibility to educate its audience on the correct word usage of things when you have the limited space of a tweet. The audience gets offended, that's their problem for being ignorant. I was ignorant of it too before this topic, so it's nothing to be ashamed of unless you don't change your perspective when you learn about it.
The channels are over-stuffed, if people don't buy the machines, there's no reason to ship any more.
Why wouldn't they care? Reorders of units are going to stop if the system gets backed up in the channel.
rokkerkory
Member
Good but not so good with many sitting on shelves. Drop $ plz
They might care, but at least they can keep shareholders calm a little longer.
Dragonborn
Member
Are shareholders that stupid though? I mean, I get that the general public might buy into the wording of it and think something else, but I'd assume shareholders actually know what they're doing and wouldn't take that kind of BS.
SwiftDeath
Member
So I'll try my hand at estimating XB1 WW LTD based on previously released numbers thus will rely on some terrible assumptions I'm afraid
Xbox One: over 3 million sold to consumers in 2013
XB1 US LTD in 2013 = 909,132 [Nov. NPD] + 908,000 [Dec. NPD] = 1,817,132 units sold
1817/3000 = 0.6057 -> XB1 US sales for 2013 accounted for 60.57% of its WW sales
Thus with the new XB1 US LTD = 2,527,132
2527*(1/.6057) = 4172.26 -> Thus XB1 US LTD suggests XB1 WW LTD of 4,172,260
*Note I strongly feel that the XB1 sold better at launch in the rest of the world than it is currently doing since the last official WW sell-through number was given hence it is likely more than 60.57% of XB1 WW LTD sales are in the US
For instance if that number was now 65% [Less than 4% more than launch ratios], XB1 WW LTD would be 2527*(1/.65) = 3887.69 -> XB1 WW LTD of 3,887,690
I seriously think there's a decent chance XB1 WW LTD could be under 4M right now which is crazy
Xbox One: over 3 million sold to consumers in 2013
XB1 US LTD in 2013 = 909,132 [Nov. NPD] + 908,000 [Dec. NPD] = 1,817,132 units sold
1817/3000 = 0.6057 -> XB1 US sales for 2013 accounted for 60.57% of its WW sales
Thus with the new XB1 US LTD = 2,527,132
2527*(1/.6057) = 4172.26 -> Thus XB1 US LTD suggests XB1 WW LTD of 4,172,260
*Note I strongly feel that the XB1 sold better at launch in the rest of the world than it is currently doing since the last official WW sell-through number was given hence it is likely more than 60.57% of XB1 WW LTD sales are in the US
For instance if that number was now 65% [Less than 4% more than launch ratios], XB1 WW LTD would be 2527*(1/.65) = 3887.69 -> XB1 WW LTD of 3,887,690
I seriously think there's a decent chance XB1 WW LTD could be under 4M right now which is crazy
I will be honest, I was trying to put it as politely as possible and I fucking tried, I did; but what I truly think is that all that price drop business last month was to get this 5 million number. They really needed that 5 million number, may be to satisfy the higher up MS execs. They might have scratched and clawed for that number, and now they can say that they got it. Although it does not say at which date did they reach 5 million sell-in. It might have happen yesterday...
This is what I was getting at with my original post, but for some reason I did not want to say shareholders. I don't know why.
I often asked that myself too and I think overall the answer is YES.
They rely on people like Pachter to know what is going on, I think they just don't take the time to investigate moore deeply in what stuff they are invested in.
Iacobellis
Junior Member
So a 2:1 ratio with the PS4 in the lead isn't far fetched? Holy moly.
Yup. Cut the bullshit and stop treating potential customers like idiots that will just lap up the marketing/PR.
Offer value. Even if it means throwing all those monitization schemes out the window, just as they had to with DRM.
It's not hard, and it's easily doable. But they need leadership and an ability to execute on a more customer/gamer centric vision.
Absolutely. MS will know how many XB1's have been sold through to consumers, but the "sold-in" to retailers number is obviously higher, so they'll try to run with that.
Alternatively, the word shipped is the same amount of characters as sold-in.
3rdamention
Member
Exactly, that's the point. If they did really ship 3.9 million Xbox One's in 2013, that would mean that have shipped approx. 1.1 million units to retailers in the last three months, or so far in 2014.
5 million shipped to retailers is fine, but whatever amount is in stock, or in warehouses (we know there is a decent supply sitting with retailers right now or Microsoft wouldn't be using "shipped" numbers instead of "sold."), is going to have to sell through before these stores reorder more supply. That means there could be a stalled period in the very near future of "shipped" units for Microsoft as stores try to clear their current stock.
So that will slow the "shipped" numbers for Microsoft, which is all they are choosing to currently report. So if sales drop off, or don't pick up, in a couple of months from now, the shipped numbers aren't going to make huge gains. Fast Forward 2 or 3 months, and Microsoft's NPD PR Statements may not look that great because they aren't able to continue to ship more consoles to increase their "shipped" numbers.
I guess the way to fix this (outside of more aggressive pricing and pack in promotions) is to release to more territories so you can increase the numbers shipped (which would allow them to stall shipping to their current markets while current supply is sold through) and introduce your product to more markets, thus increasing sales (but probably not a huge increase since these markets wouldn't be historically Microsoft markets).
SwiftDeath
Member
Eh assuming at most PS4 is at like 7.1M, for XB1 to be at 3.6M WW would mean that 70.2% of XB1 WW LTD sales are in the US which is highly unlikely imo. That 65% I suggested might even be very unlikely as far as I know
AtomicShroom
Member
First to 10 million wins the generation battle, right Microsoft?
Right. Then I guess you better start packing up, huh?
Right. Then I guess you better start packing up, huh?
plasmawave
Banned
ya, but they also made the mothafucken Resistance 3!
Dragonborn
Member
I honestly have no idea where the hype is coming outside of it being an Xbox exclusive made by a former PS dev. All we've even seen is a CGI trailer, I'm very skeptical
SolidusDave
Member
The result of the second calculation is also what you get when you extrapolate the known WW LTD, with the logic being that retail&MS would order/produce a certain quantity based on demand:
S¡mon;108562131 said:
3 / 3.9 = 0.769
5 * 0.769 = 3.846 million units
Obviously you sell more units of the whole stock on launch/Christmas, so I would say 3.9 is actually the MAXIMUM they can have sold to customers by now. Only 100-200k units sold in the world minus US within 3.5 months would be quite shocking though.
Should have launched in all countries by now considering they have the units to spare
And would we really think MS reduced that number? Unofficial price drops paint a picture of MS pushing every unit they can into retailers.
SwiftDeath
Member
The second calculation is also what you get when you extrapolate the known WW LTD, with the logic being that retail&MS would order/produce a certain quantity based on demand:
3 / 3.9 = 0.769
5 * 0.769 = 3.846 million units
Obviously you sell more units of the whole stock on launch/Christmas , so I would say 3.9 is actually the MAX they can have sold to customers by now. Only 100-200k units sold in the world minus US within 4.5 months would be quite shocking though.
Should have launched in all countries by now considering they have the units to spare
This just became more interesting then, huh
Never thought to compare shipped and sold through numbers like that, good call
So once you sold 100M units you can have 23.1M at retailers? Percentages obviously make no sense here!
SwiftDeath
Member
The calculation would only hold true if your sold through numbers are less than your sold to retailer numbers which currently in the case of the XB1 is what's happening
SolidusDave
Member
You're right, of course you reach a threshold in which all retailers are fully stocked, so there can't be more than a few million "leftovers" worldwide.
But in this case I don't think this number was reached yet, they only added 1.1 million WW and we only know of 0.7 that were definitely sold in that time. After Christmas they had 0.9 million of unsold stock, I don't think that stock now being e.g. 1.1 million WW is so unrealistic.
Maybe if they now fully adjusted to the demand and absolutely don't ship more than they sell.
Sentenza
Member
Yeah... I don't think you have any actual familiarity with my post history, but nice try anyway.Claim what you want but you are always there to defend MS or slight Sony and their fanboys
.
Exactly, I don't. If anything simply because I don't give a damn about any of these consoles.
And *if* I had any bias toward one of them, it would probably be favorable to a PS4, so I have genuinely no idea of what the hell are you trying to hint about.
That still makes the calculation not more valid. The # of units sitting at retailer always has an absolute maximum. Calculating percentages gives no result that might hold any more truth than just guessing a random number.
SwiftDeath
Member
What? Why?
3 / 3.9 = 0.769 -> XB1 sell-through for November and December is 76.9%
Then assuming the same sell-through for January to March, we have
5 * 0.769 = 3.846 million units
It is a far far better approach than guessing a random number. It is making large sweeping assumptions but not ones that anyone can disprove without more information at present. It is however based on valid logic. Sell-through calculations like this are used often in Media Creates Threads
Cyborg
Member
Indeed, I have no idea why MS is doing this so short after Playstation announced their results.
I should have waited, they could have had a lot of more exposure if they waited a month or so....
Earthanoid
Member
Yeah, I don't get the love for SO. We've seen like 3 seconds of what might be gameplay. I really like the Resistance games and Ratchet games are fun, but to be blunt nothing in Insomniac's recent work tells me they can create a blockbuster.
For context, I think R3 is the best FPS for the PS3 and R2 was my favorite coop game. Insomniac is good, but all their games have flaws that prevent them from being blockbusters.
meanspartan
Member
Titanfall didn't move Ones?
Uh oh.
Prepare for Pricefall.
Uh oh.
Prepare for Pricefall.