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Media Create Sales: Oct 5-11, 2009
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Dragona Akehi
Retired
I still say that if FFXIII can't hit a LTD greater than 1.5 million it's a "bomba".
Cosmonaut X
Member
inner-G said:
It would be a fairly hefty decline for the series...
Dragona Akehi
Retired
inner-G said:
The series has done approximately 2.2-2.3 million LTD in the last few releases. 1.5 million or less is an enormous drop.
This isn't even considering the absolutely ludicrous budget FFXIII has required.
typhonsentra
Banned
A bit surprised to see PS3 edge out a small win this week, and with a ton of variety in software performing too.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Did Square say they were going to ship 1 million?
I dunno, I think it's most definitely slip, but 1.5M is dangerously low for a FF. I think it'sll beat that.
I dunno, I think it's most definitely slip, but 1.5M is dangerously low for a FF. I think it'sll beat that.
typhonsentra
Banned
No these are estimates by Famitsu, most likely calculated through interviews with retail partners or something similar.DeaconKnowledge said:
typhonsentra
Banned
It depends on if you think of "Bomba" as a disaster for the company or just playfully use it for any disappointment. I doubt Square believes the game will sell as well as FF12 seeing as how the series has been trending downward ever since 8 (12 less than 10, 10 less than 9, 9 less than 8.... all by a significant margin too), plus they're making it multiplatform which is probably a sign of reduced expectations. For games the best definition in my opinion is where the game both fails to recoup it's production/marketing costs and fails to sell through it's initial stock by a significant margin, creating a situation where either the publisher has to buy back the unsold games ala E.T. or they go on fire sale for a fraction of the initial price.
charlequin
Banned
DMeisterJ said:
Err... yes? This isn't kindergarten, people don't get a gold star for succeeding against lowered expectations.
thestopsign
Member
Culex said:
I'm betting you're wrong by a margin of over 400%.
thestopsign
Member
Parl said:
I guess that is a little to optimistic, isn't it.
charlequin said:
Of course not, but comparing FFXIII to XII or X with PS2s huge install base lead is probably something that should be taken into account with 'XIII needs to sell 1.5 mil or it's a bomba' when 1.5 mil could easily be 35-40% of the install base when it launches, which is a pretty high barrier to 'success'.
thestopsign
Member
DMeisterJ said:
It's a high barrier of success that needs to be passed though. XIII undoubtedly has the highest budget out of any other Final Fantasy so far in the series, and Square-Enix won't be content with just barely breaking even. It's Final Fantasy, their second largest franchise (possibly largest in volume?) and pretty much is the series that puts food on all of their employee's tables.
typhonsentra
Banned
Where's this figure come from?gogogow said:
Perhaps but one thing a lot of people are ignoring is that a significant chunk of the cost went into developing the next-gen engine the game uses, and that they plan to reuse in many of their future releases. Few of us (If any) really have any clue how much the company will receive per unit after factoring in disc/packaging manufacturing and retail take but assuming it's even something ridiculously low as half the retail price and only reaches the estimated 1.5 million in Famitsu that's still $45 million dollars before multiplatform or international sales /special edition re-releases or even simply factoring in the addition revenue/profit from all of the special editions of the game.
Warren Ellis
Banned
with the xbox 360, this time ff will sell much better in the west.
thestopsign
Member
typhonsentra said:
PS2 - Final Fantasy X 2.325.215
PS2 - Final Fantasy XII 2.322.541
From Captain Smoker's LTDs. Final Fantasy X still outsold XII by quite a bit with its Greatest Hits and International Edition.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
It would be an utter miracle from the gods above and below for Crystal Bearers to hit one million in Japan.
Even 500k is going to take quite a bit of luck. I'd be surprised if it gets to 300k.
Even 500k is going to take quite a bit of luck. I'd be surprised if it gets to 300k.
thestopsign
Member
Culex said:
I was saying that it would only have a shipment of 125k, but I'm thinking that 150-175k sounds more likely.
jaydogg691
Member
Hold on to that DS game, Drake.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Crystal Bearers isn't on the Famitsu predictions, it isn't on comgnet or lepton top20-30 preorders either, its #16 on amazon wii-specific list, all this with less than a month to go. I really doubt it'll have a >100k first shipment. In fact I wonder if it'll do 100k at all...
FF13-wise, we'll see how SE markets it and how preorders and general buzz is when the launch is nearer. Right now its hard to expect more confidence than what Famitsu has. But hey, we'll always have my favourite MH3 line I read here "Its the best selling 3rd party game on consoles this gen, if its a bomb, all the others are too".
FF13-wise, we'll see how SE markets it and how preorders and general buzz is when the launch is nearer. Right now its hard to expect more confidence than what Famitsu has. But hey, we'll always have my favourite MH3 line I read here "Its the best selling 3rd party game on consoles this gen, if its a bomb, all the others are too".
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
1.5 mil sounds about right for FF13's LTD. The userbase of the PS3 is just too low for FF13 to sell as much as previous games in the series.
More than ever, FF will have to rely on its western sales to pick up the slack (Where I reckon it might have a decent shot at surpassing FF12's sales)
More than ever, FF will have to rely on its western sales to pick up the slack (Where I reckon it might have a decent shot at surpassing FF12's sales)
13 will do fine. I think it'll do around or above 2 million.
The userbase for these games is still clearly around and active which is why games like Dissidia and Crisis Core have sold so well (becoming two of the best selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever). If there are members of this fanbase that want 13 but for some reason don't want a PS3, they'll buy the system and resell it after.
The userbase for these games is still clearly around and active which is why games like Dissidia and Crisis Core have sold so well (becoming two of the best selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever). If there are members of this fanbase that want 13 but for some reason don't want a PS3, they'll buy the system and resell it after.
Takao said:
I don't think there's another title. But the new series obviously isn't as popular as the previous one too. Sales and ratings are all down in general, so it's not surprising that the games are suffering. It doesn't help that the Wii games from S-E this time round are visual adventures, and not even the action adventure games which sold so well on the PS2. Lolz.
Famitsu estimates for these two games are complete opposite with the estimates of many gaffers. Low for the first and high for the second. It will be interesting to watch who is right but I am with famitsu. That + at the TF of NSMB Wii is funny. They also had 1.80M+ for Wii Fit Plus, number very low for what this game is going to sell when it's all said and done, which means that even they think that may underestimate the sales of NSMB Wii. So far my 3M prediction seems to agree with them.bttb said:
Angelus Errare
Banned
typhonsentra said:
I wouldn't say that FF12 sold less than FF10 by a significant margin. I mean in Japan if you you only count the original releases. FFX sold 2,323,463 to FFXII's 2,322,329
Now add in the ridiculous amount of re-releases FFX got to FFXII's one Zodiac release then it looks a little different.
