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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

Welfare

Member
Xbox One 1296k

MoM rise was 327%

YoY rise is 5%

Weekly average

October: 303k / 4 weeks = 75,750

November: 1296k / 4 weeks = 324,000
PS4 1539k

MoM rise was 460%

YoY rise is 85%

Weekly average

October: 275k / 4 weeks = 68,750

November: 1539k / 4 weeks = 384,750

Wii U 240k

MoM rise was 269%

YoY rise is 0%

Weekly average

October: 65k / 4 weeks = 16,250

November: 240k / 4 weeks = 60,000

LTD Market Share

PS4: 43%
XB1: 39%
WIU: 18%

PS4 V XB1 GAP

<1.1m
 
Microsoft has an exlusive deal for TR and marketing deal for Fallout 4, and somehow they can't keep their release dates apart.

The gif of a bus with Fallout 4 ads passing right in front of Tomb Raider ads sums it up very nicely.
 
You meant this window?
pmt0HJU.png

Love you, Lara. See you in PS4

giphy.gif
 

mitchlol

Member
"Kill me"

http://imgur.com/6ZVaXU5

6ZVaXU5


No idea if this image will work but damn if it was worth trying. Poor Lara, I actually enjoyed ROTR although I think the running animation is laughable.

Also I'm very sad that they didn't re-use the duel wielding pistols for the final boss. That was the best part of the reboot, using the triggers for each pistol as you shoot the guy off the cliff.
 

Mooreberg

Member
So with the PS4 doing 1539K in November, I think we can safely say that a large amount of October's sales were "postponed" to November.
Anyone who was awake and coherent last year knew that November would be great for bundles. Throw in how inexpensive some of great earlier 2015 releases were on Black Friday, and it is a "can't lose" proposition. You could get a system and enough quality software to keep you busy for three months on $400 USD.
 

NOLA_Gaffer

Banned
Using the rough available numbers, looks like PS4+XB1 averted falling back to Gen 6 numbers for the #1 and #2 systems in a big way! Pretty dang sharp slope! November sales are a bigger part of Q4 sales these days, but still, that's a really, really big leap. Nice stuff. (^_^)

LastGenx2vsCurrentGen_1-2_201511.png

What would it take to get this chart showing GCN/PS2/XBOX, PS3/360/WII, and WIIU/PS4/XBO?
 
What? You are acting as if Amirox was awake all night plotting and thinking of ROTR's failure. He was hoping the market responds unfavourably to the game because it could potentially provide an opportunity for SE to consider an old school TR that he loved. There is nothing wasteful about that. The way this generation has been going I will not be surprised if we see an old school TR launching to great fanfare.

Pretty much, it takes a small amount of effort to have such an opinion and of course that opinion will be expressed on a forum dedicated to discussing video games. Now, if Ami is at dinner with friends or family and he hops on the table and goes on a rant about how badly he wishes TR would fail, then I'd worry.

They rejected these games for different reasons. Also I don't think passing on them has caused any regrets...

I'm sure they have their reasons, but hell if it wouldn't have saved me the few bucks that I paid on my xb1 back then. I admit, there was a bit of selfishness in that post lol. You're certainly right.

For Sunset Overdrive, Sony wanted to own the rights to the IP, but Insomniac wanted to maintain ownership. That was why it became an XBO exclusive.

For Titanfall, Sony wanted Respawn to make it for the Vita. I kid you not.

Completely forgot about the IP issue. Lol at the vita exclusive.
 

GobFather

Member
Thank you for telling me who ZhugeEx is! I will remember to avoid him.


Similar to last month, I would now like to take the opportunity to release some data points from The NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) report for November 2015.

Other data points will follow throughout the next few days as, like I said, I am very busy and can only be on NeoGAF for brief periods at this juncture.

Please keep in mind that The NPD Group tracks a 4-week month with a reporting period of 11/01/15 through 11/28/15.

Also, please read the following disclaimer:

NPD's monthly point-of-sale data reports on U.S. Games Industry sales occurring from new physical purchases at retail which is the largest channel for games sales, but does not represent 100% of industry sales; it does not account for consumer purchases made via digital distribution, used game sales, subscriptions, mobiles, rentals, or social network games. NPD's Games Market Dynamics: U.S. is issued quarterly and is NPD's official estimate of the consumer spend on the industry and it does include estimate of the size of these other monetization methods.


Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4' took a commanding lead with 1539K units sold throughout the United States according to data from The NPD Group.

Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox One,' while still successful, was only up 5% year-over-year with 1296K.

Nintendo's 'Wii U' was far less successful. Wii U Hardware Unit Sales were only up 0.1% from November 2014, flatlining at 240K. Such flatlined demand for Nintendo's Wii U heralds its future demise because of its lackluster performance despite very cheap Black Friday discounts.

Last month's graph can be found here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=185308652&postcount=2812



This month's graph:
pjo3m77.png
Thank you ! I appreciate all the data and info.
 

Elios83

Member
Thank you for telling me who ZhugeEx is! I will remember to avoid him.


Similar to last month, I would now like to take the opportunity to release some data points from The NPD Group's U.S. Games Industry Sales (New Physical Sales Channel) report for November 2015.

Other data points will follow throughout the next few days as, like I said, I am very busy and can only be on NeoGAF for brief periods at this juncture.

Please keep in mind that The NPD Group tracks a 4-week month with a reporting period of 11/01/15 through 11/28/15.

Also, please read the following disclaimer:

NPD's monthly point-of-sale data reports on U.S. Games Industry sales occurring from new physical purchases at retail which is the largest channel for games sales, but does not represent 100% of industry sales; it does not account for consumer purchases made via digital distribution, used game sales, subscriptions, mobiles, rentals, or social network games. NPD's Games Market Dynamics: U.S. is issued quarterly and is NPD's official estimate of the consumer spend on the industry and it does include estimate of the size of these other monetization methods.


Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4' took a commanding lead with 1539K units sold throughout the United States according to data from The NPD Group.

Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox One,' while still successful, was only up 5% year-over-year with 1296K.

Nintendo's 'Wii U' was far less successful. Wii U Hardware Unit Sales were only up 0.1% from November 2014, flatlining at 240K. Such flatlined demand for Nintendo's Wii U heralds its future demise because of its lackluster performance despite very cheap Black Friday discounts.

Last month's graph can be found here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=185308652&postcount=2812



This month's graph:
pjo3m77.png

Thank you for the numbers George, so 243k gap for the month.
Pretty great numbers for both PS4 and XB1.
But the PS4 yoy growth is amazing, just like it's really impressive how they're dominating this holiday season even without releasing any major first party exclusive during the period.
With the lineup they have planned for 2016, coupled with a 299$ price and a likely Slim model I think PS4 might have the peak year of its life cycle in 2016.
 
I don't see how third party support is very relevant for a Nintendo console if it is going to be the same games found on PS4 and Xbone. The gamer who only owns a Nintendo console and not one of the other two will be extremely rare and why would they pick the Nintendo version when they will have a much bigger friends list on the Sony or Microsoft platform. The main exceptions would be any third party kid friendly franchise as Nintendo consoles are still viewed as family friendly and some parents might only own it for their young children to play, i.e., They need to launch with Minecraft already available.



As for Tomb Raider, the release date is what killed it, of course exclusivity didn't help. People only purchase so many games and releasing the same day as the 2nd biggest game of the year and not long after CoD is suicide. Should have released in February or March.

I was thinking of third party support similar to the Wii. Wii had a lot of unique third-party games that suited the system well and were cheap to develop. Third party support isn't synonymous with Xbox One and PS4 multiplats, you know. The 3DS has third party support. Early ports on Wii U obviously did nothing.
 
The ps1, ps2, ds and Wii are all fads if you want to look at it the way you do.

I don't think you understand what a fad is. Sony invented the PlayStation business model with the PS1: sell a relatively powerful console at a relatively low price, aim it at the core gaming demographic, rely on good relations with third parties to fill the library. That strategy worked for the PS1, it worked for the PS2, and it's working for the PS4. The only time Sony has stumbled, the PS3, is when they abandoned that strategy.

That isn't a fad. That's a business strategy that has worked consistently every generation it's been tried.

The ps2 business model and the ps4 business model are 2 different things.

Not really.

There is nowhere near the breadth of retail software in the pipeline to Reclaim that kind of glory (indies and digital still can't replace that missing retail presence), and the same type of cost reduction still isn't possible due to a lot more being inside a console nowadays (Blu Ray and HD alone are going to remain a steady 70 bucks in the supply chain for the entire life of the platform). Games cost more to make and risk and output is most certainly lower.

Specifics change. The overall strategy remains the same.

I highly doubt the mass market moves from their smart devices and computers to renter the traditional market. So how does Sony sell 100m ps4s?

Sony consoles have never depended on the blue ocean crowd for their sales. The PlayStation does not compete with smartphones. This is why it's still selling so well, even in the aftermath of the smartphone revolution.

Can they expand the amount of young males who want to shoot/stab/drive things/play sports?

That market is expanding all on its own. In part that's population growth, in part that's women and developing markets entering the core in larger numbers, and in part that's the fact that today's young adults grew up playing video games and view consoles as essential purchases as soon as they start making money.
 

donny2112

Member
Looking over the data feeds, it is abundantly apparent that I am not very good at predicting Xbox One and PS4 solely on intuition! Hahahaha

November and Black Friday have really taken over as the premier time to buy a new core game console in the U.S. On a weekly basis (i.e. normalizing for the extra week in December), PS3 and 360 have had higher November weekly sales (and most of those concentrated around Black Friday) than December for 2011-2013, when the new systems took over. For PS4 and XB1, 2014's Nov -> Dec transition was flat and down, respectively, continuing the trend of December not being bigger than November on a weekly basis for the core consoles. More family-focused consoles like Wii, DS, Wii U, and 3DS, however, do still see a significant bump in Nov -> Dec weekly sales, in contrast.

With that in mind, it made sense to predict a "bigger than you'd normally expect" November for PS4 and XB1. Even then, those two consoles performed even better than the raised expectations. The GAF Aggregate, for example, was higher than your own predictions for both systems, yet, it was still ~20% too low for both in the final tally. This month just really took most everyone by surprise!
 

kswiston

Member
For real.

Aqua got hounded for that shit.

NDP_Mulcair don't give a fuck, lol


Wasn't Aqua working for JP Morgan (or a similar firm), and just had access to NPD data? I think that NDP_Mulcair is more officially related to NPD. We get a few specific numbers that would have probably received ballpark leaks anyhow. We're happy, NPD is happy to have fewer leaks. Seems like a good trade off.
 
For Sunset Overdrive, Sony wanted to own the rights to the IP, but Insomniac wanted to maintain ownership. That was why it became an XBO exclusive.

For Titanfall, Sony wanted Respawn to make it for the Vita. I kid you not.

And people say Sony wasn't trying to get people to make Vita software.
 

SlickVic

Member
The Tomb Raider deal is interesting because it was just so much a reaction to the times. I imagine when MS made that deal for a potential Fall 2015 release, they didn't actually realize just how stacked this Fall was going to be. The rest of the industry were maybe still hoping Fallout 4 was going to be a 2016 game. Add the usual AC, CoD, NBA 2K releases on top of a Star Wars game and Halo 5 and there honestly wasn't a whole lot of room for much else.

I guess it's hard to know the precise circumstances of the Tomb Raider deal, and how much of MS's involvement led to it getting the time, talent, and resources into making it a great game. I am very happy with how the game turned out, and I hope once its made the rounds and released on all 3 platforms and the positive buzz around the game spreads that CD will get the sales the game deserves.
 

StevieP

Banned
Imru’ al-Qays;188793572 said:
I don't think you understand what a fad is. Sony invented the PlayStation business model with the PS1: sell a relatively powerful console at a relatively low price, aim it at the core gaming demographic, rely on good relations with third parties to fill the library. That strategy worked for the PS1, it worked for the PS2, and it's working for the PS4. The only time Sony has stumbled, the PS3, is when they abandoned that strategy.

That isn't a fad. That's a business strategy that has worked consistently every generation it's been tried.



Not really.



Specifics change. The overall strategy remains the same.



Sony consoles have never depended on the blue ocean crowd for their sales. The PlayStation does not compete with smartphones. This is why it's still selling so well, even in the aftermath of the smartphone revolution.



That market is expanding all on its own. In part that's population growth, in part that's women and developing markets entering the core in larger numbers, and in part that's the fact that today's young adults grew up playing video games and view consoles as essential purchases as soon as they start making money.

Yeah the ps2 sold 150 million machines on the backs of the core gamer. Lol. No expanded consumer base at all! I think you shouldn't dismiss the software differences as "specifics change", because it's those specifics that will make or break the LTD of this generation's most successful platform, and the tail it has. Most young adults are currently playing on healthier platforms, as I've already mentioned. So are children. That's going to be a problem for this market.
 

stryke

Member
Real Talk here, how the fuck does he get away with posting the literal NPD Group charts here? How is this possible?

I mean I love it, and thank you man, but how is this possible.

It confuses me as much as the next person, but honestly in the unlikely case I wouldn't be surprised if NPD themselves are just throwing us a bone.

Major gaming websites still don't publish data they see here since they can't verify it. We may believe the data, but for people on the outside, there's still reasonable doubt and therefore the data won't proliferate to the extent that they perceive to threaten their business.
 
I'm very curious to see what SE says about TR's performance this time. They were very honest last time when they were not happy with the performance of the title, so I have no reason to believe they won't again. If they are positive it'll mean they likely received enough from MS to ensure they didn't take a bath on this title and will be able to make number 3.


I bet this time, they cannot say a thing. They signed this exclusivity with Microsoft, and I assume there are clauses that either prevents them from talking about sales, or prevents them from talking about sales if they are bad. Remember when it was announced and Xbox exclusive Holiday 2015? They went months, and could never admit the deal was timed, or that it was ever coming to PS4. There had to be a reason for that, and I believe that reason was the exclusivity contract they signed with Microsoft.


They were very honest last time because they didn't have said contract/deal. So they could say whatever they wanted. If they couldn't admit this deal was timed, I doubt they are going to be able to say they are disappointed with sales of this game, especially when this game is only available on the one platform holder they signed an exclusivity deal with.
 

jackdoe

Member
The Tomb Raider deal is interesting because it was just so much a reaction to the times. I imagine when MS made that deal for a potential Fall 2015 release, they didn't actually realize just how stacked this Fall was going to be. The rest of the industry were maybe still hoping Fallout 4 was going to be a 2016 game. Add the usual AC, CoD, NBA 2K releases on top of a Star Wars game and Halo 5 and there honestly wasn't a whole lot of room for much else.

I guess it's hard to know the precise circumstances of the Tomb Raider deal, and how much of MS's involvement led to it getting the time, talent, and resources into making it a great game. I am very happy with how the game turned out, and I hope once its made the rounds and released on all 3 platforms and the positive buzz around the game spreads that CD will get the sales the game deserves.
I think the timed exclusivity deal screwed over the game, in that SE HAD to release the title this fall as part of the deal. It was probably stipulated in their contract. That's the only way the stuck in stone release date makes sense.

And I think the profit ship has sailed. While they may still sell as many copies as the reboot after the title hits the PC and PS4 and after a very long time, they are probably going to sell nearly 90% of their lifetime units at bargain bin prices. And their season pass is a bust in terms of profit as well.
 

Welfare

Member
Just how well are the 8th generation of consoles doing compared to those of yesteryear in their respective November?

Xbox Family

[2003] Xbox - 490k
[2007] Xbox 360 - 770k
[2015] Xbox One - 1296k

PS Family

[2002] PS2 - 1284k
[2008] PS3 - 378k
[2015] PS4 - 1539k

Nintendo Family

[2004] Gamecube - 350k
[2009] Wii - 1260k
[2015] Wii U - 240k
 
Real Talk here, how the fuck does he get away with posting the literal NPD Group charts here? How is this possible?

I mean I love it, and thank you man, but how is this possible.
The language of the posts suggests that he works for NPD. That, the full disclaimer, the mention earlier on about sharing info that doesn't impact their bottom line, etc. makes it seem a reasonable conclusion, imo.
 

kswiston

Member
Just how well are the 8th generation of consoles doing compared to those of yesteryear in their respective November?

Xbox Family

[2003] Xbox - 490k
[2007] Xbox 360 - 770k
[2015] Xbox One - 1296k

PS Family

[2002] PS2 - 1284k
[2008] PS3 - 378k
[2015] PS4 - 1539k

Nintendo Family

[2004] Gamecube - 350k
[2009] Wii - 1260k
[2015] Wii U - 240k

PS4 won't look so amazing in December.
 

Petrae

Member
The language of the posts suggests that he works for NPD. That, the full disclaimer, the mention earlier on about sharing info that doesn't impact their bottom line, etc. makes it seem a reasonable conclusion, imo.

Given the selective nature of the data (and the disclaimer you mentioned), I agree with this.

I consider it a holiday gift.
 

Jigorath

Banned
Just how well are the 8th generation of consoles doing compared to those of yesteryear in their respective November?

Xbox Family

[2003] Xbox - 490k
[2007] Xbox 360 - 770k
[2015] Xbox One - 1296k

PS Family

[2002] PS2 - 1284k
[2008] PS3 - 378k
[2015] PS4 - 1539k

Nintendo Family

[2004] Gamecube - 350k
[2009] Wii - 1260k
[2015] Wii U - 240k

It's amazing how bad the PS3 sold during the holidays.
 

Gestault

Member
Just how well are the 8th generation of consoles doing compared to those of yesteryear in their respective November?

Xbox Family

[2003] Xbox - 490k
[2007] Xbox 360 - 770k
[2015] Xbox One - 1296k

PS Family

[2002] PS2 - 1284k
[2008] PS3 - 378k
[2015] PS4 - 1539k

Nintendo Family

[2004] Gamecube - 350k
[2009] Wii - 1260k
[2015] Wii U - 240k

I'm surprised that even the XB1 is outselling the Wii at that point from 2009. Aside from soft Wii U performance, this generation is awesome.
 
Sony Corp's 'PlayStation 4' took a commanding lead with 1539K units sold throughout the United States according to data from The NPD Group.

Microsoft Corp's 'Xbox One,' while still successful, was only up 5% year-over-year with 1296K.

Nintendo's 'Wii U' was far less successful. Wii U Hardware Unit Sales were only up 0.1% from November 2014, flatlining at 240K. Such flatlined demand for Nintendo's Wii U heralds its future demise because of its lackluster performance despite very cheap Black Friday discounts.



Thanks so much for sharing with us. This is the information we have been wanting to discuss. Really good month for both consoles. But the PS4? Wow, and even extending the gap another 243K is just blowing my mind, especially for November, what Aaron Greenberg from MS refers to as the Post Season. Crazy stuff, thanks again!
 

heidern

Junior Member
Did they really try to go after the core market? I think the wiiu tablet was more in line with trying to attract there handheld market with the console market. It really wouldn't make sense for them to release a console with similar specs to last gen if they wanted to attract the core market, Nintendo isn't that stupid, they were banking on the tablet.

Iwata outlined their strategy in 2011:

What we have tried to do with the Wii U console is to create an environment where we can break down the barrier that exists between those two groups and provide, on a single console, an experience that will satisfy both types of users. Through that process we continue to expand the gaming population.

I believe the concept of the "Blue Ocean" conveys the idea that if you try to have too broad of a focus, then you may not have as great of an impact, or things may not go as well as you desire. So, part of the philosophy of the Blue Ocean strategy is to really bring your focus into a specific area by "abandoning" or "eliminating" some good ideas.

Perhaps the reason that you asked this question is because you may feel that we have lost our focus by going with this seemingly broader strategy.

So, to define what the focus is this time, there are really two points that we are focused on. One is that we looked at the system and we asked the question, what can we do to attract people who were not inspired by even the Wii Remote or the Wii Balance Board to participate in video gaming, and how can we, through this system, capture their attention? The second point that we focused on was how can we satisfy and meet the needs of everyone in the industry who is developing games now and their desire for HD visuals, and how can we convince them that this will be a system with which "they can take full advantage of their game development."
 
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