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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

H

hanspampel

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
All the Pro can do is help lessen the YoY loss.

Oh well, we can revisit in a couple weeks. I'll even call my shot, -20% PS4, -25% Xone. I'll take avatar bets for anyone that wants to call growth on either/both.
Click to expand...

i gladly take that bet, because i don't have an avatar yet and need a good one ;)

-20%YoY for Ps4 would be 1230k units and a 420% MoM increase over october
-25%YoY for Xb1 would be 970k units and a 195% MoM increase over october


i'm not certain if xb1 is up YoY, because i don't know the supply situation. but i'm willing to take a bet on that. i find the odds quite favourable.
i do agree on ps4 beining down YoY because last year was so huge for ps4 and it's hard to match that performance again. xbox one on the other hand was just in line with 2014 and the overall number also lower. 1.3m chould be possible

best part on the bet tho
you're forced to leak if the consoles are up or down in 3 days. and we all want that information. so this is my public service for this board. all you guys can thank me now :D
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
hanspampel said:
i gladly take that bet, because i don't have an avatar yet and need a good one ;)

-20%YoY for Ps4 would be 1230k units and a 420% MoM increase over october
-25%YoY for Xb1 would be 970k units and a 195% MoM increase over october


i'm not certain if xb1 is up YoY, because i don't know the supply situation. but i'm willing to take a bet on that. i find the odds quite favourable.
i do agree on ps4 beining down YoY because last year was so huge for ps4 and it's hard to match that performance again. xbox one on the other hand was just in line with 2014 and the overall number also lower. 1.3m chould be possible

best part on the bet tho
you're forced to leak if the consoles are up or down in 3 days. and we all want that information. so this is my public service for this board. all you guys can thank me now :D
Click to expand...

Things changed a bit since the last time you were a GAF member, Queso no longer has access to NPD data, not directly anyway.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
CosmicQueso said:
All the Pro can do is help lessen the YoY loss.

Oh well, we can revisit in a couple weeks. I'll even call my shot, -20% PS4, -25% Xone. I'll take avatar bets for anyone that wants to call growth on either/both.
Click to expand...

I'll take growth on XB1. <5%, but still growth.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Chobel said:
Things changed a bit since the last time you were a GAF member, Queso no longer has access to NPD data, not directly anyway.
Click to expand...
huh? that must be a recent change. the last times i were reading this topics cosmic always knew the outcome and hinted if the prediction were right or wrong


some on topic trivia:
52 people made a prediction
43 see ps4 winning (82,5%)
7 see xb1 winning (13,5%)
2 predicted a statistical tie (4%)
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
Do we trust Amazon monthly rankings anymore? Cause according to it, PS4 slim was #3, 3DS was #20, Xbox S was #21, and PS4 Pro was #22.
Click to expand...
For the first 3 weeks of the month they still had the PS4 slim ahead by a lot and just like September and October, I don't that will be representative of the whole market. Black Friday week is just another can of worms.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Maybe this isn't the right place for this, but I was thinking about next year around this time. I was thinking about how Sony could aggressively compete against the Scorpio next year.

I assume Crash and Knack are launching next year. Sony for the holiday could have a very attractive family bundle for the Slim for $200 with Knack and Crash bundled.

Then to directly compete with Scorpio have Pro bundles for RDR, Destiny, and the new Battlefront title.
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
Welfare said:
For the first 3 weeks of the month they still had the PS4 slim ahead by a lot and just like September and October, I don't that will be representative of the whole market. Black Friday week is just another can of worms.
Click to expand...

RexNovis said:
Lack of availability for some of XB1S most in demand bundles has made it pretty unreliable for the past few months. I doubt that would change this month.
Click to expand...

Hm, makes sense. I was wondering why no one had brought it up.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
All the Pro can do is help lessen the YoY loss.

Oh well, we can revisit in a couple weeks. I'll even call my shot, -20% PS4, -25% Xone. I'll take avatar bets for anyone that wants to call growth on either/both.
Click to expand...

FOr the sake of clarity here are you saying -20% for both PS4 SKUs (Pro and Slim) or only the base SKU (slim) YoY? I think we'll see nearly 20% (somewhere between 16-19%) decline YoY when accounting for both SKUs and ~30% YoY decline when comparing just the Slim SKU alone to last years figures. I do think the Pro is a bit of a wildcard though. It is really difficult to predict sales with so little info on stock and demand. I tend to err on the side of thinking the budget minded bent of the majority of November's consumers will lead to a slow start. It would be nice to get more info on the sort of sales the Pro was able to push at launch as we have a lot of conflicting reports.

Also 25% YoY decline for XB1 would put it below 1 million which would be historically bad for the Xbox brand as they've pulled 1.1 mill or above during November for the past 8 or so years. Also I feel like 25% drop is massive considering the YoY performance the XB1S has provided since release. I agree that it will be down YoY but I dont see it being down more than 20% given the presence of both Minecraft and BF1 XB1S bundles this holiday. Especially when seen in comparison to the relatively weak bundle options provided by the competition. 25% just seems a bit extreme to me I guess. Do you have any particular reasoning behind this figure?

Or perhaps your YoY declines were in reference to revenue and not unit sales?
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Dash_Riprock said:
Do we trust Amazon monthly rankings anymore? Cause according to it, PS4 slim was #3, 3DS was #20, Xbox S was #21, and PS4 Pro was #22.
Click to expand...
you can still use amazon, but you should do it correctly.
compare last year amazon rankings and the npd results with this year and try to extrapolate for the full market. the customer demographic for amazon compared to the whole market should not have changed that much in one year

last year, the rankings were:
Ps4: 1, 15, 31, 42 and 59
Xb1: 8, 23 and 44
ps4 outsold xb1 by 16% in november npd

this year rankings are:
ps4: 3 and 22
xb1: 21, 32, 34 and 62
black friday week:
ps4: 1 and 23
xb1: 19, 20, 24 and 79
some bundles for xb1 did not make it into the top 100, but still sold some units


now it's up to you how you interpret those rankings.
for me xb1 looks more competitive than last year on amazon.
also worth to mention, that xbox outsold ps4 in npd report, while "losing amazon rankings"
 
J

Javin98

Banned
Good grief, are we back to trying to extrapolate any sort of gap from Amazon monthly charts? Sales threads are really that slow now, huh.

Anyway, after reading some of the posts here, I have to agree that both consoles should be down YoY slightly. I changed my predictions earlier today to reflect that.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
yeah good grief how dare those people are using infomation to estimate sales in a sales estimate topic

welfare numbers, amazon rankings and the adobe report are the best avaibale information here so far. infoscout to a lesser degree.
anecdotal retailer information reported here are sadly always kind of useless, because of the way it's given out.
console x or y doing better than the other at one retailer in one area is not representative of the whole market.

abidels best-buy customer demographic as example seems to be more screwed towards ps4 (just like best buy in general as far as my observation go).
so really helpful information would be YoY performance changes.
does one console moving more units than the same time last year. what about the other console? what console had a bigger increase or decline.

but even the not most useful anecdotal retailer insight this month is very spare. i didn't read many people giving out information
 
J

Javin98

Banned
hanspampel said:
yeah good grief how dare those people are using infomation to estimate sales in a sales estimate topic

welfare numbers, amazon rankings and the adobe report are the best avaibale information here so far. infoscout to a lesser degree.
Click to expand...
I was only referring to Amazon charts as inaccurate, thank you, great reading comprehension. It can be used to tell which console won the month. However, even that is now questionable, due to the lack of the XB1's best bundles on Amazon. Anyway, my point is, the monthly charts are a horrible metric to use to gauge the gap between the two consoles. Just a rudimentary example. In one month, #1 and #10 could be 100K apart. In another, #1 and #5 could just be 30K. You tell me, is that indicative of anything besides which console led the month overall?
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
Javin98 said:
Good grief, are we back to trying to extrapolate any sort of gap from Amazon monthly charts? Sales threads are really that slow now, huh.

Anyway, after reading some of the posts here, I have to agree that both consoles should be down YoY slightly. I changed my predictions earlier today to reflect that.
Click to expand...

I think alot of us did, lol. I changed everything except 3DS numbers. And 3DS numbers always mess me up alot.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
Javin98 said:
I was only referring to Amazon charts as inaccurate, thank you, great reading comprehension. It can be used to tell which console won the month. However, even that is now questionable, due to the lack of the XB1's best bundles on Amazon. Anyway, my point is, the monthly charts are a horrible metric to use to gauge the gap between the two consoles. Just a rudimentary example. In one month, #1 and #10 could be 100K apart. In another, #1 and #5 could just be 30K. You tell me, is that indicative of anything besides which console led the month overall?
Click to expand...

no you can't tell that by looking at the rankings at least not with any certainty. that is why i said you have to use the information correctly. so maybe you misread my post, just like i did yours!?

but having multible bundles in the rankings and to know if a game or console was able to surpass the usual top 3 curreny cards is something.

i said xb1 looks more competitive this year on amazon compared to last year. last year looks like ps4 won at amazon big.
this year the gap between ps4 at #3 an the following bundles is bigger ranking wise. but as you said the actual sales difference coud be even lower. thats the uncertainty, we have to deal with.

why i like amazon tho? amazon customer demographic is obviously just the onlineshopper and not representative of the whole market. but amazon is the only retailer, with a kinda reliable bestseller list and 100% of all sales being in that list, becsuse they don't have offline stores. amazon.com also covers the whole country and we know their customer demographic is heavily screwed towards online shoppers :D

amazon is in no way a good indicator to estimate the salesgap for the npd results. but good to gauge the relative performance for each console at that one retailer.


the predicting the winner pattern is also very interesting, because they were wrong the last months. we now need to see and wait if and how that new pattern pans out. maybe xb1s was doing proportionally better at brick and mortor. maybe the online buyer are the hardcores who didnt go for the ps4 slim and waited for the pro.
maybe even a big shift happend and amazon was only able to predict the winner, because xb1 and ps4 sales were always fairly close and similar at brick and mortar and that changed

givt it 4 or 5 more months and we have a pretty good understanding about the situation. in hindsight everything is easier to understand. right now i also do not know anything. just xbox one is looking more competitive vs ps4 at amazon this year ;)
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
I think PS4 will probably be flat or slightly up yoy. No PR isn't any indicator because last year they didn't come out with PR immediately. Also last year they still had monthly or when they won. This year they stopped bragging about monthly wins.
 
S

Sterok

Member
I probably would've put 3DS very close to a million if there was more stock. I did hear a lot of reports of the 3DS being completely cleaned out in a lot of stores. Well, as long as Nintendo is happy I guess.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Was that one amazon exclusive?
Would also be interesting to know if it was only sold in the US. Did Japan or Europe get it?
Click to expand...
no just the green lime color was amazon exclusive

$99 n3ds was no promotion in europe, but then again us and europe is very different when it comes to priecepromotions. in europe retailer are very pricecompetitive and undercut the msrp and the competition to sell more. us is more manufacturer driven

3dsXL including sun or moon was 139€ in germany. that was the best deal so far
 
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