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NPD June 2012 Results [Up1: Microsoft/Nintendo Hardware, Lego Batman 2, Lollipop]

noobie

Banned
Filling in the blanks...

01. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
200k
02. Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB: The Show 12
05. Modnation Racers: Road Trip
06. FIFA Soccer
07. WipEout 2048
08. Mortal Kombat
09. Rayman Origins
10. Hot Shots Golf
50k
11. Resistance: Burning Skies
12. Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus
40k
13. Gravity Rush
14. Little Deviants
15. Dungeon Hunter: Alliance
30k
16. Metal Gear Solid HD
17. Lumines: Electronic Symphony
18. Dynasty Warriors Next
19. Ridge Racer
20k
20. Touch My Katamari

-----

I suppose Uncharted's done okay considering the tiny installed base.
So they dont include downloads? Right?
 

Bruno MB

Member
Thanks for the numbers creamsugar.

There isn't anything unexpected.

I only find somewhat noticeable the good performance of Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 (I thought Mortal Kombat would outsell it but its sales are really pitiful) and the complete flop of Metal Gear Solid HD Collection.
 
Yes, it's up now:

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/174143/Gamasutras_halfyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

I'm not sure Matt posted enough inflammatory Wii comments this go-round to get his usual bunch of crazy comments, but it's otherwise solid ;).

IMO articles like this are almost pointless if they dont include online store revenue from downloadable games and DLC as they could be contributing as much as 50% to total software revenue. I really dont think the industry is a bleak as some think as revenues from this sector have been increasing.

I know this year I've spent 2x as much money on PSN than I have than at retail.
 

GavinGT

Banned
IMO articles like this are almost pointless if they dont include online store revenue from downloadable games and DLC as they could be contributing as much as 50% to total software revenue. I really dont think the industry is a bleak as some think as revenues from this sector have been increasing.

We can't say for sure, but I don't think the growth in digital sales has anywhere near outpaced the decline in retail sales. The occasional game like Minecraft or Trials might sell a million copies on XBLA, but that can't make up for a 30% decrease in full-priced retail software.
 
380K is from pixel counting Nintendo's chart.
Then 75+50+75 for April, May, June approximates.

Also based on the figures from creamsugar the Vita's attach rate is at least 1.4, but presumably higher.

Not sure if that's good or bad. Probably the latter.
 

donny2112

Member
IMO articles like this are almost pointless if they dont include online store revenue from downloadable games and DLC as they could be contributing as much as 50% to total software revenue.

Then you're advocating no articles be written about the current financial state of the industry, as those numbers are not released by the platform holders. NPD does a quarterly round-up on used games and digital content, but it's just based on their user-response surveys instead of how they track retail sales (i.e. through retailers). Then you run into the issue of comparing apples to oranges. Current sales including used games and digital vs. old sales for new retail only.

In other words, there's not a way to do comparisons with public information, so we use what we got.
 
I think 50% is reaching, 10-15% is more likely.

the reason why I said it could be as much as 50% is cause its more than just the downloadable games on there that bring in the revenue. You have the DLC, themes and avatars, the video store, and services like PS+. I mean just the other day there was this article on gaf about how MS is making billions off of advertising on the 360 dashboard.

Then you're advocating no articles be written about the current financial state of the industry, as those numbers are not released by the platform holders. NPD does a quarterly round-up on used games and digital content, but it's just based on their user-response surveys instead of how they track retail sales (i.e. through retailers). Then you run into the issue of comparing apples to oranges. Current sales including used games and digital vs. old sales for new retail only.

In other words, there's not a way to do comparisons with public information, so we use what we got.

your right. I guess its not pointless, but im just pointing out that painting the "doom and gloom picture" isnt right or fair if you dont include info on this stream of revenue which is very significant.
 
your right. I guess its not pointless, but im just pointing out that painting the "doom and gloom picture" isnt right or fair if you dont include info on this stream of revenue which is very significant.

It's significant, yes. And obviously digital sales (awful misnomer, by the way) can carry a higher profit margin, so they may be even more important by that metric vs. revenue.

But although we don't have much information on digital sales, nor does anyone have a good industry-level overview of that segment, we aren't completely blind to it. The data that is available indicates that digital sales do not make up the difference, and the doom and gloom is not out of place, but only exaggerated.
 

creamsugar

Member
3DS top 20 LTD

01. SM 3D Land
2m
02. MK7
1.5m
03. Zelda
1m
400k
04. Pokemon
05. SF64 3D
06. SSF4 3D
300k
07. KI:U
08. Lego SW3
09. PR
250k
10. Sonic
11. Spyro
200k
12. Olympic
13. Dog cat bulldog
14. Dog cat retriever
15. Dog cat toy
16. Lego PotC
150k
17. RE:R
18. Asphalt 3D
19. Rayman 3D
20. SMB 3D
130k
 

Kusagari

Member
3DS top 20 LTD

01. SM 3D Land
2m
02. MK7
1.5m
03. Zelda
1m
400k
04. Pokemon
05. SF64 3D
06. SSF4 3D
300k
07. KI:U
08. Lego SW3
09. PR
250k
10. Sonic
11. Spyro
200k
12. Olympic
13. Dog cat bulldog
14. Dog cat retriever
15. Dog cat toy
16. Lego PotC
150k
17. RE:R
18. Asphalt 3D
19. Rayman 3D
20. SMB 3D
130k

Ouch...
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
3DS top 20 LTD

01. SM 3D Land
2m
02. MK7
1.5m
03. Zelda
1m
400k
04. Pokemon
05. SF64 3D
06. SSF4 3D
300k
07. KI:U
08. Lego SW3
09. PR
250k
10. Sonic
11. Spyro
200k
12. Olympic
13. Dog cat bulldog
14. Dog cat retriever
15. Dog cat toy
16. Lego PotC
150k
17. RE:R
18. Asphalt 3D
19. Rayman 3D
20. SMB 3D
130k

So Nintendogs has probably sold over 600,000? Bah. Not deserving.
 
Wow Revelations is a bomb. Most everything else on that list is decent though. Star Fox 64 3D selling that much is pretty damn good and bodes well for a future entry. Kid Icarus I feel like Nintendo definitely wanted more from. It will probably crawl to a million LTD when all is said and done.
 

Kazerei

Banned
3DS top 20 LTD

01. Super Mario 3D Land
2m
02. Mario Kart 7
1.5m
03. Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
1m
400k
04. Pokemon Rumble Blast
05. Star Fox 64 3D
06. Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
300k
07. Kid Icarus: Uprising
08. Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars
09. Pilotwings Resort
250k
10. Sonic Generations
11. Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure
200k
12. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
13. Nintendogs + cats: French Bulldog & New Friends
14. Nintendogs + cats: Golden Retriever & New Friends
15. Nintendogs + cats: Toy Poodle & New Friends
16. Lego Pirates of the Caribbean
150k
17. Resident Evil: Revelations
18. Asphalt 3D
19. Rayman 3D
20. Super Monkey Ball 3D
130k

I'm surprised and happy that Star Fox did well. I'd love a brand new Star Fox game, just on-rails shooter this time.
 
Well... I guess by 2012 handheld standards. :p

I think it's decent considering how bad the system started off. Star Fox 3D selling over 300k along with Super Street Fighter 4. Mario Kart and 3D Land doing amazing considering the install base (or even without it). The 3DS release list has been pretty barren. 3rd party wise, Kingdom hearts, Castlevania, and Epic Mickey are the games to watch this year.

i think revelations did pretty great

great enough for them anyway

I don't know how you could think sub 150k is great for a big budget title like that.
 
I wonder if Steel Diver even broke 100k.

It would be kind of surprising if it didn't considering it's been on sales for 5 bucks multiple times. I would think just from how many copies Nintendo printed plus dumb parents picking up the cheapest thing would get it over there. Definitely the biggest Nintendo flop in a long time. Probably not in terms of money lost since it looks like it was made by only a few people, but I remember Miyamoto talking about it like it was going to be some niche hit
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I think it's decent considering how bad the system started off. Star Fox 3D selling over 300k along with Super Street Fighter 4. Mario Kart and 3D Land doing amazing considering the install base (or even without it). The 3DS release list has been pretty barren

I mean, given how bad retail is at this point, it doesn't look that bad.

However, I feel I should point out that we're in a market where Max Payne 3, the flagship Rockstar May title developed by five studios, sold less in its debut month than Dante's Inferno did back in February 2010.

And I mean people weren't exactly giving Dante Inferno's performance a standing ovation relative to past years either.

The bad side of this though is that the new handhelds seem to have done very little to stimulate the market out of the "the very top does insanely well, but everything else looks quite mediocre to poor" state it is in.
 
I mean, given how bad retail is at this point, it doesn't look that bad.

However, I feel I should point out that we're in a market where Max Payne 3, the flagship Rockstar May title developed by five studios, sold less in its debut month than Dante's Inferno did back in February 2010.

And I mean people weren't exactly giving Dante Inferno's performance a standing ovation relative to past years either.

The bad side of this though is that the new handhelds seem to have done very little to stimulate the market out of the "the very top does insanely well, but everything else looks quite mediocre to poor" state it is in.

Well to be honest I don't expect the market situation to change anytime soon for the market that doesn't include DD, F2P, and other revenue streams not counted. I don't expect new consoles to drastically change anything either. I know one thing for sure, and that's neither 3DS or Vita will have truly successful markets at the current hardware/software pricing scheme.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Well to be honest I don't expect the market situation to change anytime soon for the market that doesn't include DD, F2P, and other revenue streams not counted. I don't expect new consoles to drastically change anything either.

Out of curiosity, are you expecting it to stabilize or continue its current rate of decline?

For reference: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...fyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

us-total-vg-revenue-1j8krk.png
 
Out of curiosity, are you expecting it to stabilize or continue its current rate of decline?

For reference: http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...fyear_US_video_game_retail_sales_analysis.php

us-total-vg-revenue-1j8krk.png

Well I certainly expect an uptick due to the price of the new consoles being sold added into the revenue, but I don't expect to see the market remain in a state where the current software sales remain as they are. The argument being put forth is that people are bored with the current gen. I think that the expectations is that the jump in visual fidelity will get people excited again, but I don't see that happening this time. This is all compounded by the sluggish economy and various other cheaper methods of entertainment

Edit: The interesting part about the graph is that if you remove the Wii and DS from the equation the results of 2007,8, and 9 would look absolutely horrible. The reason people started to notice the decline in the market is exactly because the Wii market fell apart and Nintendo decided to replace the DS honestly earlier than it needed to be.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Since I clicked the button before you edited.

I know one thing for sure, and that's neither 3DS or Vita will have truly successful markets at the current hardware/software pricing scheme.
Honestly I have to agree with you here, especially relative to their predecessors.

I think the boost of 2008-2009 will never happen again. This generation of sales will not happen next-generation, and sales will return to what we saw during the PS2 era.

Well I certainly expect an uptick due to the price of the new consoles being sold added into the revenue, but I don't expect to see the market remain in a state where the current software sales remain as they are. The argument being put forth is that people are bored with the current gen. I think that the expectations is that the jump in visual fidelity will get people excited again, but I don't see that happening this time. This is all compounded by the sluggish economy and various other cheaper methods of entertainment

Edit: The interesting part about the graph is that if you remove the Wii and DS from the equation the results of 2007,8, and 9 would look absolutely horrible. The reason people started to notice the decline in the market is exactly because the Wii market fell apart and Nintendo decided to replace the DS honestly earlier than it needed to be.
Yeah, especially since you can now also choose to spend all your new game money digitally on the game you already bought, or very likely pick from a ton of f2p console games next generation, retail doesn't really seem likely to ever recover.

Battlefield Premium sold 800,000 copies in two week. Even if we assume that only half of that was the U.S., that's still essentially a 400,000 copy selling game that would have once been retail.
 
Of course I don't mean this sound like a gaming is doomed rant. If you like your Final Fantasies, Grand Theft Autos, Marios, etc. you'll certainly be able to get that for a long time to come. However, if you have a problem with sequelization, the issue is only going to grow.

Edit: I think the F2P thing is going to fizzle out quickly next generation. Everyone seems to want to jump on it but the truth is that the highest payers in F2P subsidize everyone else. What happens when you overcrowd the F2P market? Well those top people don't have unlimited money to bankroll all the games coming out.
 
Both 3DS and Vita lists look about how I'd expect them.

I'm actually surprised there are that many "well" selling 3DS games however; most stores have a marginal 3DS section (handheld section is still almost entirely DS games) and this problem was much worse this time last year.

3DS is still in that "launch" phase where game releases are "linear" aka so infrequent that almost the entire install base has played the same thing. In other words, if you asked a DS or 360 owner to name 10 games they've played, then ask another owner, chances are the lists will vary wildly. Ask two 3DS owners and both lists will probably be almost identical (SM3DL, MK7, OoT, KI:U, etc).
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Edit: I think the F2P thing is going to fizzle out quickly next generation. Everyone seems to want to jump on it but the truth is that the highest payers in F2P subsidize everyone else. What happens when you overcrowd the F2P market? Well those top people don't have unlimited money to bankroll all the games coming out.

Yeah, but even if there was only ever eight successful f2p titles for the entire generation, they could still eat up a huge amount of time and money that would otherwise go to other games.
 
Also this isn't meant to knock the DS's library because I think it is fantastic and very varied, but I feel like a lot of revenue coming from it and from the Wii were from parents picking up cheap games to play on the Wii with a lot of shovelwhare getting exposure because of the cheapness. The iOS market in my opinion has destroyed the shovelwhare market. This is why Ubisoft had to quickly change gears with and found a lot of successes elsewhere and why THQ collapsed. Their licensed and shovelwhare emporium fell apart a lot faster than they imagined.

Yeah, but even if there was only ever eight successful f2p titles for the entire generation, they could still eat up a huge amount of time and money that would otherwise go to other games.

Oh I agree. I just don't think it is the "answer" everyone is looking for.
 
Wellp, no-one wants portable metal gear.

While this is probably true, I feel like looking at PW and 3D as a gauge does not show the real picture. PW was released on a basically dead platform where all software performed like shit. 3D on the other hand, was released after the HD collections offering a much better play experience for cheaper and 3D could barely be played without an add on.
 

plufim

Member
While this is probably true, I feel like looking at PW and 3D as a gauge does not show the real picture. PW was released on a basically dead platform where all software performed like shit. 3D on the other hand, was released after the HD collections offering a much better play experience for cheaper and 3D could barely be played without an add on.
HD collection on vita did badly too, which was what I was referring to. Wonder which did better, that or 3D
 

jman2050

Member
People are going to chase the F2P market hoping to hit it as the biggest new fad ala what they did with FPSes this past generation. And many companies are going to get burned as a result, same as before.
 
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