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Media Create 25/12 - 31/12
- Thread starter The_lascar
- Start date
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Leonsito said:
Oh man...I suspected that HW could be low, but not SO low.
kisakiproject
Member
Leonsito said:
360 sold the same it did for the lats 2 weeks compared to the other 2 platforms which slowed down.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
I wonder if the PS3 is closing the gap because of interest or because stock has increased to a suitable point while there is still a Wii shortage.
Leonsito said:
BD turn-around confirmed?
Last week I was getting flamed for saying that BD may have helped turn things around for the 360. While the 360 is still below the Xbox's LTD at this point, the original Xbox never had 4 weeks in a row like this in Japan a year after it came out. Most people dismissed the idea that this could happen as soon as BD fell off the charts, but I think that's because most people were unrealistically expecting the game to sell 500k and give the 360 a 300k boost in hardware. This, however, is more in line with what I was expecting. BD may be off the charts, but it has not stopped selling, and it has not stopped moving hardware. It's just simply selling very small amounts but it's also selling hardware along with it. It's still too early to call but if the 360 doesn't drop back to 2-3k next week(we should know tomorrow) that would pretty much solidify it, especially considering how much the other two systems dropped in comparison.
The more I look at the 360 situation in Japan, the more it mimicks the pattern of the 360 in the US. Poor launch compared to the Xbox, but slowly picking up ever since, and outperforming its predecessor over time. That's way more promising than the other way around. Like I said, expect it to do what the Xbox did in half the time in Japan. I'm going to predict it catches the Xbox LTD by the end of the year. This bodes well for it to become a niche system, and break a million during its entire lifespan.
The Wii took a huge drop-off. So do you guys think it's safe to say supply is now > demand for both PS3 and Wii in Japan?
kisakiproject said:
And the week before that it was over 35k.
Leonsito said:
wow, these were the most boring and anticlimatic numbers ever. The only thing that is worth a mention is the fact that PS3 is actually becoming a threat for the Wii.
next MC numbers will reveal a lot... if PS3 reaches anything between 90k and 100k the next week, I hope nintendo has a solid plan to counterattack.
I posted this in the Nintendo Increased Forecast thread. Some pre-damage control, if you will...
If Nintendo doesn't increase the shipment allotment before the end of the fiscal year i wonder how they'll split the shipments?
Maybe 1 million to the US, 500k to Japan and Europe. That's ~300,000 per month in the US and ~40,000 per week in Japan.
Don't be surprised if Wii numbers are well below the PS3s in the coming weeks, unless Nintendo comes out and says otherwise.
If Nintendo doesn't increase the shipment allotment before the end of the fiscal year i wonder how they'll split the shipments?
Maybe 1 million to the US, 500k to Japan and Europe. That's ~300,000 per month in the US and ~40,000 per week in Japan.
Don't be surprised if Wii numbers are well below the PS3s in the coming weeks, unless Nintendo comes out and says otherwise.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
This week in Sales:
Weekly Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 5 total weeks:
360 - 2nd lowest week. It is not trending away from the norm. (avg. week = 18,137)
Wii - 2nd lowest week. Sales are too erratic to call a trend. (avg. week = 183,929)
PS3 - 2nd highest week. Definitely following the trend. (avg. week = 60,232)
You'll notice in the above chart that the 360 has clearly topped off and can expect the average sales (18k) for the duration of the year barring any major announcements. The PS3 has an excellent trend line so far. Smooth and steady growth without appearing to top off. The target audience knows what it wants and appears to be buying it with ease. I would expect for the trend to continue around 60-75k until big-name releases hit the market. The Wii's sales have been erratic. Two huge jumps that presumably follow availability. Other weeks they follow the same trend as the competition but at a slightly higher rate (90-110k). The hard part to determine for the Wii's trend is based solely on availability. The assumption is that if it were more widely available it would have a more recognizable upward trend but fewer jumps.
Up-to-date Market Share:
Market Share History:
Percentage of the Market LTDs (Market Share):
The above chart shows that the Wii continues to have 2x the market share of the PS3 and 3x the market share of the 360.
Weekly Sales History:
Since 11/27/07 - 5 total weeks:
360 - 2nd lowest week. It is not trending away from the norm. (avg. week = 18,137)
Wii - 2nd lowest week. Sales are too erratic to call a trend. (avg. week = 183,929)
PS3 - 2nd highest week. Definitely following the trend. (avg. week = 60,232)
You'll notice in the above chart that the 360 has clearly topped off and can expect the average sales (18k) for the duration of the year barring any major announcements. The PS3 has an excellent trend line so far. Smooth and steady growth without appearing to top off. The target audience knows what it wants and appears to be buying it with ease. I would expect for the trend to continue around 60-75k until big-name releases hit the market. The Wii's sales have been erratic. Two huge jumps that presumably follow availability. Other weeks they follow the same trend as the competition but at a slightly higher rate (90-110k). The hard part to determine for the Wii's trend is based solely on availability. The assumption is that if it were more widely available it would have a more recognizable upward trend but fewer jumps.
Up-to-date Market Share:
Market Share History:
Percentage of the Market LTDs (Market Share):
Code:
[B][U]Date 360 Wii PS3 [/U][/B]
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%The above chart shows that the Wii continues to have 2x the market share of the PS3 and 3x the market share of the 360.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
jimbo said:
You think it's doing 500k by the end of the year?
sphinx said:
I agree. It seems now there's plenty of supply for both systems. So tomorrow's numbers should be the first "real" numbers after the dust settled. I can't wait to see how the Wii's popularity holds up(although this week should bring up a red flag), how the price of the PS3 will affect its sales, and finally if I am right in that the 360 won't fall back down to 2k a week again.
Thursday media-create will be one of the most important ones of this generation IMO. It will truly be the first week of the next generation war.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
What's this "plenty of both systems" bullshit?
DeaconKnowledge
Member
jimbo said:
Uh, no.
DeaconKnowledge said:
Well I think it can get close to it without things even getting better for it at all. This is the way I figured it. It's currently at around 270k, right?
Worst case scenario it goes back to a measely 2k a week for the rest of the year until NOV of this year. 2k * 4.33(weeks per month) * 10 months = 86k.
Again say the best it can do next holiday is no more than this one, or roughly 100k between Nov + Dec.
That's 270K + 86k + 100k = 456k units and I believe it to be worst case scenario.
And in all honesty, I believe games like BD, will continue to have a constant effect on its regular sales, therefore I do not expect it to go back to 2k a week.
If it simply does 3k a week, it will hit 500k by the end of the year, using what I described above. And that's not even being realistic. Because I expect it to continue to have some additional sales spikes when games like Trusty Bell hit and also additional price drop(which I also expect in Japan).
So to answer your question, yes I do. Absolutely.
RedLightning
Member
The_lascar said:
Still hanging in there! Yay!
DeaconKnowledge said:
So you guys believe the drop-off had to do with supply issue? I am not sure of the situation in Japan, so I can be wrong, but I figured if the Wii can sell almost 300k in one week, 2 weeks after launch, then Nintendo had to have the capabilities to ship 300k in one week 2 weeks after launch. I don't understand why supply would be cut in 1/3 the week after. Doesn't it usually go up as time goes on?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
If the 360 is doing 3k per week it will only be at 420k total by this time in 2008.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
jimbo said:
Fair enough....
Let's say that Microsoft has a banner year like that. Do you really think it will continue to grow in the face of two competitors with a greater focus on Japanese focused content? Let's face it, Blue Dragon saw a lot of sales due to being rather unopposed in the market.
Taking the GameCube as an example, it's staggered release schedule saw it cap off at around 4 million LTD in Japan. That's pretty much an indication that the PS2 kicked a dent in its growth. And that was with more Japanese content than Microsoft will ever hope to have with the 360 in its lifetime.
I think you're being far too optimistic over the 360's future success, personally. No offense.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jimbo said:
Don't be a turd d00d. The 2nd to last week of the year (Christmas in the US) is always the biggest week. The last week ALWAYS sees a drop.
And you're figuring wrong. Shipments are managed exactly like that all the time. Hold some back for the big week, flood the market, then ship everything after that.
soundwave05
Member
:lol :lol So the 360 is gaining massive momenteum in Japan now?
At this rate they might just hit ... 500k before the decade is up. Wow. I know I'm impressed.
Maybe in 3-4 generations they'll be able to do GameCube numbers in Japan. Wii is definitely supply restricted, any of the Japanese GAFers will tell you that you can't find them anywhere.
1 million lifetime userbase is not a niche ... that's called a flop.
At this rate they might just hit ... 500k before the decade is up. Wow. I know I'm impressed.
Maybe in 3-4 generations they'll be able to do GameCube numbers in Japan. Wii is definitely supply restricted, any of the Japanese GAFers will tell you that you can't find them anywhere.
1 million lifetime userbase is not a niche ... that's called a flop.
What about the PS3 in Japan? It already has more units out then the Xbox 360... doesn't that mean anything?
EDIT: It doesn't. I was thinking that maybe future projects like Lost Planet might switch or at the very least support it, but these games are made with NA in mind and the PS3 won't catch up to the Xbox 360 for quiet a while.
EDIT: It doesn't. I was thinking that maybe future projects like Lost Planet might switch or at the very least support it, but these games are made with NA in mind and the PS3 won't catch up to the Xbox 360 for quiet a while.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Hey - I admire anybody that has the balls to say that the 360 is "going to turn it around." It takes a lot of courage to stare logic and statistics in the face and attempt to make that assertion.
After 5 weeks, the 360 went from 100% market "domination" (the only one on the market) down to 15% market share. It will continue to lose a point or two to its competitors per week and will end up around 3-5% market share before Thanksgiving. That's not bouncing back.
After 5 weeks, the 360 went from 100% market "domination" (the only one on the market) down to 15% market share. It will continue to lose a point or two to its competitors per week and will end up around 3-5% market share before Thanksgiving. That's not bouncing back.
DeaconKnowledge said:
I really don't think 1 million units over 6 YEARS is being far too optimistic. It all comes down to the games really. So let's face it, 475k people bought the Xbox, with half of them to just play DOA. The other half I think were probably the same guys buying a second console to replace the first one to play DOA, because I can't think of what else they bought it for. The 360, oth, has currently one of the best rpg line-ups, which Japanese love. I certainly think that if it can manage to get 3-4 strong rpgs exclusive or at least time exclusive on the system, along with DOA5, it will do 1 million over 6 years.
PS: The GC was suffering from great exclusive rpg's too. I believe RPG's to be one of the keys to Japan.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Maybe by 2010.
soundwave05
Member
jimbo said:
The GC still sold 5 million. Which is more than double the XBox + 360 estimate lifetime total combined. The 360 is a flop, the "Japanese audience" don't care about the 360 or its storied RPG lineup. 99.9% of them would never buy a 360. A 1 million total userbase as a goal is a joke.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
jimbo said:
You are greatly overstating the strength of the 360's Japanese RPG's.
kisakiproject
Member
The point is 360 did not drop off when other systems did. So despite second week drop offs it continues to sell. Even if 360 sells poorly each outside of the rare week with "Big" releases it will outsell the original xbox either by the end of this year or sometime in 2008. It will do better than the original most likely. 1 million is a stretch unless it sells 10k a week consistantly and big software spikes. But it will be better than 475k. Thats something. Its not great its not even good. hell its not even decent. But atleast its better.
Also I wonder if Wii will sell less than PS3 soon? It could be like DS strong holidays then poor until "easter." Then domination. Wii sales seem pretty eratic. It is because of supply. But who knows after the holdiay dies down. Wi sales are all over the place PS3 is consistantly 70k. The nintendo launch titles all have great legs so maybe it will keep going. Fire Emblem Wii is in feb and big titles before feb on Wii?
Also I wonder if Wii will sell less than PS3 soon? It could be like DS strong holidays then poor until "easter." Then domination. Wii sales seem pretty eratic. It is because of supply. But who knows after the holdiay dies down. Wi sales are all over the place PS3 is consistantly 70k. The nintendo launch titles all have great legs so maybe it will keep going. Fire Emblem Wii is in feb and big titles before feb on Wii?
soundwave05
Member
kisakiproject said:
Then again, MS would have to try to do worse than the first XBox in Japan. XBox 1 in Japan was about as close as you can get to be completely irrelevant in a market. The original XBox also had to go up against an established PS2.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
jimbo said:
Did you somehow forget about the exclusive Shin Megami Tensei game the original Xbox got?
You know, Shin Megami Tensei, one of the most popular RPG series in Japan.
PantherLotus said:
Wow, talk about taking things out of context. This is so freaking retarded and it has none of the things bolded in it.
WTF, does market share have anything to do with me saying the 360 will outsell the original Xbox? Seriously.
I'm clearly talking about the 360 being a niche console, compare it to nothing more than the Xbox, making it pretty clear I have no intention of comparing it to the Wii or the PS3, yet you spin things in such a retarded manner.
Anone in their right freaking mind KNOWS there is nothing to compare the 360 to in Japan. It's already been well established that there is NO reason to compare it to the Wii or PS3 when both of those other systems outsold it in a matter of weeks. Why you would even bring up such a thing as market share when everyone here knows the 360 will have 1% when it's all said and done is pretty freaking ridiculous.
But any kind of positive news for the system in Japan, it seems in GAF, needs to be spun around into something negative.
Why can't you just look at the simple fact that the system went from 2k a week to an average of 18k a week, and see that's an improvement? Because THAT would be logical and statistca. No one here's saying the 360 is a success nor that it will be in Japan. All I am talking about is that it's improving. That's all.
And just because there's a couple of you that agree to refuse to acknowledge this fact, doesn't make you right.
soundwave05
Member
1 million after 3-4 years in a market is not a niche. It's a flop. Hell, people considered the GC a flop at 5x that number.
1 million total userbase is completely irrelevant in the overall scope of the Japanese market. The original XBox saw it's sales rise during the holiday rush seasons in Japan ... every system gets that.
1 million total userbase is completely irrelevant in the overall scope of the Japanese market. The original XBox saw it's sales rise during the holiday rush seasons in Japan ... every system gets that.
kisakiproject
Member
starship said:
Week after christmas everything slows regardless of supply. 360 didn't slow down with unlimited supply. PS3 sold the same probably due to supply. I also doubt Wii and 360 are competitors in Japan. 360's target audiance is hardcore gamers/otaku/akibake. Wii's target audiance at launch was nintendo gamers and non-gamers. Nintendo gamers and non-gamers would never be interested in 360. I doubt Wii shortages is driving and unsatisified gamers to buy 360s. PS3 shortages might be. If 360 sales seriously decrease after PS3 is redily available MS is in a hell of a lot more trouble then they already were.
soundwave05 said:
Didn't wonderswan sell 1 million systems? Didnt people consider it a niche system when it was around? Also people who consider 4m+ gamecubes a flop are ridiculous. Flop implies it can't survive in the market it sold so poorly. Which 360 would be if MS didn't have limitless pockets. But cube was profitable. So it can't be considered a flop.
soundwave05
Member
kisakiproject said:
MS is not in trouble in Japan. That boat already sailed about 5 years ago, lol. We're well past that stage. MS is not even in the "console war" right now as it pertains to Japan, nor do they even deserve to be mentioned in such a way. What they do is basically completely irrelevant to Nintendo or Sony, because they're not a mainstream product in Japan, period.
And Nintendo's audience = all of Japan. They are going to take the entire market on their back, not just any particular set of gamers, just like they have done with the DS. The game market IS the Nintendo market now as far as Japan goes. They're the ones that have taken the Japanese market out of its slump.
kisakiproject
Member
soundwave05 said:
DS's market is all of Japan because it has a huge amount of titles on it. There is enough to appeal to everyone. Wii's launch titles appeal to nintendo fan's and non-gamers. The system may appeal to everyone when it gets more titles. But at the moment it doesn't. IT will soon once it gets more titles.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
soundwave05 said:
Sad, but true. The fact is that the Xbox360 has no really hope in Japan with the games has has right now and that will have if the program doesn't change. It need some smashing hit like FFXIV or Dragon Quest X EXCLUSIVE or Metal Gear Solid or...you have understood ! Blue Dragon was the key for these holiday's season, but 40k in the week before christmas is something that make me laugh !!! They need an exclusive, estabilished and mega popular franchise to change the actual situation, otherwise, a console that in Japan sell less then 1 million is a flop. The Gamecube is considered a flop: we could discuss about this. 4 millions are still 4 millions. The N64 sold a little bit more then 5 millions. Is it a flop ? We can discuss even on this. But the Xbox's brand in Japan there is nothing to discuss.
But UNDER a million we cannot speak of IRRIVEVANT. UNANWENDBAR.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Mithos Yggdrasill said. We all learned.Mithos Yggdrasill said:
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
soundwave05 said:
To give to Cesar what belongs to Cesar Date a Cesare ciò che è di Cesare.