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January NPD Prediction Thread (not this week)

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D

donny2112

Member
The January 2007 NPD report, based on past months, should be released this Thursday. Last year it was released on Friday, so that only gives us 2-3 days to do predictions. If the Wedbush Morgan Securities preview gets posted on Next-Gen or Gamasutra, I'll update this post with it.

January is a four-week month covering Dec 31-Jan 27.

December 2006 numbers:

sonycowboy said:
Courtesy of NPD

HW Sales (month and LTD)
Nintendo DS 1.6 mm 9.2 mm
PS2 1.4 mm 37.1 mm
GBA 850.7 K 35.1 mm
Xbox 360 1.1 mm 4.5 mm
Wii 604.2 K 1.1 mm
PSP 953.2 K 6.7 mm
PS3 490.7 K 687.3 K

Top 10 Video Games - December 2006
360 GEARS OF WAR - MICROSOFT 815.7 K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR - ACTIVISION 805.2 K
PS2 MADDEN NFL 07 - ELECTRONIC ARTS 737.1 K
GCN LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 532.9 K
WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS - NINTENDO 519.2 K
PS2 WWE SMACKDOWN VS. RAW 2007 - THQ 484.5 K
NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS - NINTENDO 427.5 K
360 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 410.8 K
NDS YOSHI'S ISLAND 2 - NINTENDO 407.2 K
PS2 CALL OF DUTY 3 - ACTIVISION 365.3 K
Click to expand...

Possibly Significant Releases for January:

360: Lost Planet (1/12), March Madness 2007 (1/17)
PS3:
WII: Wario Ware (1/15)
NDS: Yu-Gi-Oh! (1/2), Phoenix Wright 2 (1/17), Hotel Dusk (1/22)
PSP: Sid Meier's Pirates! (1/22), The Legend of Heroes III (1/23)
PS2: Karaoke Revolution (1/2), Backyard Basketball (1/8), March Madness 2007 (1/17)
GBA:

General hearsay and personal observations:

DSLites and Wiis were mostly sold out in January despite at least some shipments coming in the latter half of the month.
PS3s got a good restock at the beginning of January after shortages through the December NPD reporting period.
360s had tons of stock in stores at the beginning of the period.

For a different perspective, Japanese sales in the equivalent time period:

360: 42K
PS3: 137K
WII: 459K
NDS: 757K
PSP: 240K
PS2: 116K
GBA: 15K





My Predictions

1. NDS - 400K
2. WII - 320K
3. PS2 - 241K
4. 360 - 240K
5. PS3 - 220K
6. PSP - 140K
7. GBA - 120K

Probably won't be reported, but

8. GCN - 32K
9. XBX - 3.5K
 
F

farnham

Banned
1. NDS - 400K too high
2. WII - 320K too high
3. PS2 - 241K too low
4. 360 - 240K too low
5. PS3 - 220K too low
6. PSP - 140K too low
7. GBA - 120K way too low


my predictions

NDS> PS2 > 360 > 300k>GBA> PSP> Wii> PS3

PS3 is obviously not selling out.. they talked about 100k per week.. with sell outs that would mean 400k in NA.. which they clearly missed.. same with the Wii.. probably didnt sell out.. and the shipments are probably lower then the PS3 (which is really baffling.. 5 year old hardware ftw..)
 
R

reggieandTFE

Member
farnham said:
1. NDS - 400K too high
2. WII - 320K too high
3. PS2 - 241K too low
4. 360 - 240K too low
5. PS3 - 220K too low
6. PSP - 140K too low
7. GBA - 120K way too low


my predictions

NDS> PS2 > 360 > 300k>GBA> PSP> Wii> PS3

PS3 is obviously not selling out.. they talked about 100k per week.. with sell outs that would mean 400k in NA.. which they clearly missed.. same with the Wii.. probably didnt sell out.. and the shipments are probably lower then the PS3 (which is really baffling.. 5 year old hardware ftw..)
Click to expand...


Ok, than why haven't I seen one on the store shelves in Chicago?
 
L

LOCK

Member
DS - 320k
Wii - 300K
PS2 - 280k
360 - 220k
PSP - 170K
GBA - 170k
PS3 - 110k

Zelda Wii + GC = 210k
Lost Planet - 500k
Wario Ware - 200k (hard to guess)
 
J

jjasper

Member
farnham said:
anecdotal evidence =|= fact!
Click to expand...

Yeah but when you use that evidence from all over the country you get a pretty good idea, that doesn't mean they are selling tons of systems for all we know they could have shipped like 100K.
 
A

Archie

Second-rate Anihawk
Wii: 320,000
360: 250,000
PS3: 190,000

DS: 200,000 (shortages)
PSP: 150,000
GBA: 160,000

PS2: 255,000
GCN: 20,000
Xbox: 1,500
 
B

Busty

Banned
MasterMFauli said:
NDS: 650k
WII: 500k
360: 390k
PS2: 340k
PSP: 280k
PS3: 270k
GBA: 100k
Click to expand...


I seriously doubt the margin between 360 and PS3 sales will be that significant.

However, I can really see this upcoming NPD numbers release being a meltdown no matter the outcome.

My two cents for next gen?

360 - 290k

PS3 - 285k

Wii - 405k
 
A

AdmiralViscen

Banned
farnham said:
1. NDS - 400K too high
2. WII - 320K too high
3. PS2 - 241K too low
4. 360 - 240K too low
5. PS3 - 220K too low
6. PSP - 140K too low
7. GBA - 120K way too low


my predictions

NDS> PS2 > 360 > 300k>GBA> PSP> Wii> PS3

PS3 is obviously not selling out.. they talked about 100k per week.. with sell outs that would mean 400k in NA.. which they clearly missed.. same with the Wii.. probably didnt sell out.. and the shipments are probably lower then the PS3 (which is really baffling.. 5 year old hardware ftw..)
Click to expand...

There has been NOTHING to indicate either of these things. All signs point to the opposite.
 
J

jj984jj

He's a pretty swell guy in my books anyway.
NDS - 350K
Wii - 270K
GBA - 220K
PS2 - 300K
PS3 - 200K (or whatever they managed to ship)
PSP - 190K
360 - 290K

Hotel Dusk - 50K
Phoenix Wright - 30K
Lost Planet - 650K
 
D

donny2112

Member
farnham said:
anecdotal evidence does not necessarily = fact!
Click to expand...

Fixed.

However, the wider the spread of the reports, the greater relation to fact the anecdotal evidence probably has. Wii is mostly sold out across the country according to reports (one WV Wal-Mart store employee said they had some in stock for a few days). The good news is that a guy I know (casual/semi non-gamer) only had to wait in line for 1 hour to get one at a midnight Wal-Mart sale. They sold out and had to turn people away, in case you were wondering. ;)

Elios83 said:
Are the numbers really coming this thursday?We should have already seen the previews.
Click to expand...

Last year there was only about 48 hours between the previews and the release. See the link in the OP.
 
S

Square2005

Banned
It would be nice if our December predictions had been tallied and scored first or did I miss it?

My JAN Projections:
XB360 - 232,000
PS2 - 219,000
NDS - 175,000
PSP - 152,000
PS3 - 125,000
GBA - 111,000
Wii - 85,000
 
F

farnham

Banned
DefectiveReject said:
Isn't January normally a MASSIVE month for sales?
Click to expand...


its not massive like november or december.. but still not bad... i think in NA its the 3rd or 4th month in terms of sales and in japan it is the 4th or 5th.. (october, september and march are kinda big too)
 
D

donny2112

Member
Square2005 said:
It would be nice if our December predictions had been tallied and scored first or did I miss it?
Click to expand...

I haven't seen it tallied, and I'm usually the one doing the tallying. :p Two significant digits for > one million selling systems is a real downer when you get four significant digits for < one million systems, too. :(
 
McHuj

McHuj

Member
Wii - 450 (they still have to be selling like crazy, i still can't find one)
PS2 - 350
360 - 330
PS3 - 250
DS - 500
PSP - 200
GBA - 80
 
S

Scotch

Member
Isn't January normally a MASSIVE month for sales?
Click to expand...

Not really. Last years numbers:

01 - PlayStation 2 - 272,000
02 - Xbox 360 - 249,000
03 - PlayStation Portable - 179,000
04 - Game Boy Advance - 172,000
05 - Nintendo DS - 158,000
06 - Xbox - 89,000
07 - GameCube - 66,000

(source)
 
H

hadareud

The Translator
360 - 240,000
wii - 235,000
ps3 - 205,000
ps2 - 245,000
gc - 20,000
xbox - 2,000

ds - 320,000
psp - 180,000
gba - 140,000

edit: typo in my gc prediction
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
NDS - 400K
PSP - 300K
PS2 - 300K
PS3 - 250K
Wii - 250K
X360 - 200K
GBA - 120K
XBOX - 12.5
GC - 11

I'm guessing better shipments for PS3 than Wii. 100000 a week, 50% in stock = 200K plus a little extra. Wii = Sold out
 
D

donny2112

Member
jj984jj said:
They shipped a million right? I don't remember if the game was released WW yet.
Click to expand...

It's been #1 on the U.K. charts for the past few weeks, and it was released in Japan in December, I believe.
 
P

Parl

Member
Scotch said:
Not really. Last years numbers:

01 - PlayStation 2 - 272,000
02 - Xbox 360 - 249,000
03 - PlayStation Portable - 179,000
04 - Game Boy Advance - 172,000
05 - Nintendo DS - 158,000
06 - Xbox - 89,000
07 - GameCube - 66,000

(source)
Click to expand...

You American Psycho. Anyway...

DS: 620,000
Wii: 320,000
PS3: 190,000
Xbox 360: 170,000
PSP: 110,000
GBA: 120,000
PS2: 160,000
 
B

Baron Aloha

A Shining Example
I usually don't do prediction threads but what the heck...

DS - 400K
PS2 - 370K
Xbox 360 - 320K
PS3 - 310K
Wii - 300K
PSP - 230K
GBA - 180K
 
F

farnham

Banned
interesting.. many are predicting that the wii will do worse then the PS3...

the shipments must have been abyssmal
 
A

AdmiralViscen

Banned
Wii spent December in worse shortage than PS3, and we all saw how the numbers shook out.

Nice job avoiding referring to responses to your logical fallacy on page 1.

Why are you judging shipments based on GAF predictions? From what we've seen of the US in Nov/Dec, and Japan in Dec/Jan, high shortages of Wii does not relate to low (relative to PS3) shipments.
 
F

farnham

Banned
AdmiralViscen said:
Wii spent December in worse shortage than PS3, and we all saw how the numbers shook out.

Nice job avoiding referring to responses to your logical fallacy on page 1.

Why are you judging shipments based on GAF predictions? From what we've seen of the US in Nov/Dec, and Japan in Dec/Jan, high shortages of Wii does not relate to low (relative to PS3) shipments.
Click to expand...


numbers were low... 600k only (over 1 million was predicted)
 
A

AdmiralViscen

Banned
farnham said:
numbers were low... 600k only (over 1 million was predicted)
Click to expand...

...Which still put it over PS3, did it not? Which is what you have been talking about, and is what I said in my post that you quoted.

What difference do erroneous predictions make in the context of our discussion? If anything, it proves my point.

Unless you think PS3 is selling ~30% of its shipments in Japan, which is pretty damn bad, Wii continues to outship it.
 
S

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Scotch said:
Not really. Last years numbers:

01 - PlayStation 2 - 272,000
02 - Xbox 360 - 249,000
03 - PlayStation Portable - 179,000
04 - Game Boy Advance - 172,000
05 - Nintendo DS - 158,000
06 - Xbox - 89,000
07 - GameCube - 66,000

(source)
Click to expand...

I don't see why the PS2, DS, or 360 would sell worse this January then they did last year considering the strong holidays they had. So,

PS2 - 280k (Guitar Hero II is carrying the old guy to unreasonable numbers)
Xbox 360 - 270k (due to Gears and Lost Planet)
PSP - 160k
GBA - 250k (why won't you die?!?)
DS - 350k (even with shortages clearly outclasses everyone)
Xbox - 3k
GCN - 15k (still dreaming that dream...of passing the Xbox)
Wii - 300k (the last of the holiday demand carries over - I predict these numbers fall closer to reality once February hits)
PS3 - 210k (given Sony's shipped:sold ratio thus far WW, this number just seems to make sense)

Lost Planet - 650k
Gears of War - 250k
Wario Ware - 300k
Guitar Hero II - 400k
Resistance - 100k
 
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