Still shocked at the idea of MS being caught so badly off guard by the PlayStation Meeting. Orbis rumors date back to early 2012 and even those called the late 2013 launch period, I don't see why the assumed Sony was so far behind.
Predictions about your competitor's strategy are often one of the most subjective and dangerous things done in boardroom meetings.
I mean, from a financial standpoint, one would be excused to see that SCE would not launch PS4 this year. They've only recently restabilised their grounds, and pushing for a new console launch in 2013 does nothing to help that due to the investments needed for a major console launch.
From a games standpoint, looking at PS3's exclusive line-up this year, one can be forgiven to not think this was a console launch year. GoW:A, GT6, TLoU, Beyond: Two Souls, Puppeteer, Rain. A stark contrast from MS's line-up.
Another piece that I see happen often in business discussions about competitor strategy, is making assumptions about the 'logic' & 'thought process' of your competitors, in line with your own.
I don't work in the games industry, but I can safely say that some of the predictions we make about our competitors are close to being 'out-of-the-ass' in all the qualitative assumptions.