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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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This post is extremely foolish for a number of reasons

1. Microsoft has arguably the best online infrastructure in the industry although we can argue all day whether or not it's worth $60 a year. The millions paying a subscription voted "yes" with their wallets. Sony offered PSN for free while they built up a network that has proven it can compete with Microsoft and now they charge. I don't pay for it but millions do because they believe it provides value. Nintendo has proved nothing but incompetence with their online gaming strategy so why the hell would I want to pay for what will most likely be a stripped down service compared to the competition? They are already making us download a smartphone app for voice chat which is idiotic.

2. PS4/XBO controllers are not $60-$75, if you think that you clearly don't own either system or are too lazy to shop around online. I can get both for $50 at retail and even cheaper often because they go on sale unlike Nintendo products.

3. Trying to argue Switch has a robust library by comparing it to the Wii U in 2016 is laughable. Nintendo hardly showed anything remotely interesting other than Zelda. 3D Mario is due Holiday 2017 but we all know it's probably getting delayed to 2018.

4. Stop looking at $300 in a vacuum and making fun of people who think it's $50 to expensive. Have you considered how much it will cost when buying a game or two, paying for online, buying an extra controller for your friend/loved one? What about those in other territories that have the price jacked up even more? You have no right to lambast people over what they consider too expensive.

5. The Nintendo victim complex needs to stop. Nobody is holding a grudge or jealous of the Wii U. It failed because nobody cared about it outside of hardcore Nintendo fans defending questionable decisions on message boards and deflecting all criticism. They are making a lot of the same missteps Wii U had: Hardware that's underpowered and too expensive, alieniating western 3rd party developers, expensive controller...and now add on paid online and ridiculous accessory prices. We have every right to be skeptical and it has nothing to do with hating Nintendo.

Honestly I'm surprised you didn't pull a "everyone complaining wasn't going to buy one anyway" one liner.

One of the most sensible posts i've seen all day.

I have no idea who this console is aimed at. Who are nintendo fans these days? is a 12 year old kid really going to pick this over an xbox or ps4? I think its going to flop unless there is a price drop like the 3DS.
 
I see a lot of parents changing their minds about buying the Switch when they realized how expensive it can get. More than 1 kid in the family? Gotta buy another set of JoyCon and the grip. Only 32GB storage? need to buy another SD card. Doesn't come with a game? The dollars quickly add up.

Then they'll end up buying a ps4/xbox because both come bundled with a game.
 

Weebos

Banned
I think it will follow a similar trajectory to the 3DS, especially after an eventual price drop.

Assuming this is the new Pokemon machine this will already do better than the Wii U with nothing else.
 

mackattk

Member
A lot of the target market would be Wii U owners/loyal Nintendo fans. If Zelda is one of the only must have games at launch, and nothing else that is notable launching for several more months to almost a year... Why not just pick up Zelda on the Wii U and wait for the Switch to drop in price or have enough games to justify the purchase?

Nintendo really needed to hit the ball out of the park on its launch lineup, especially after the Wii U. It NEEDED Mario at launch. They failed.

I also don't feel too confident in third party support. It sounds like what third parties did with the Wii U, just give it half-ass support. Skyrim and a special edition of Fifa? It needs parity with the PS4/XB1 to have any sort of success. If it did then I might pick up a game for the Switch because of portability factor, but if it is a gimped version then fuck it, I will get the PS4 version.

I am going to take a wait and see approach, I feel like many others will do the same. That just means less hardware/software sales and probably third parties more likely to back out, which means a repeat of Wii U failure.
 

ironcreed

Banned
qYZ4mHA.gif

LOL, much better.
 

R00bot

Member
I think it'll do well. Much, much better than the Wii U because I know many non-gamer friends who have said they're going to buy it, and many of them didn't even know what the Wii U was...
I doubt it can outdo the Xbox One or PS4 since they're already established, but it'll do respectably. I expect 40 million plus lifetime.
 
Better than the Wii U, not as successful as the Wii.

The buzz around Zelda alone bodes well for it.

I think people are forgetting how big Zelda is. It will be big at launch, and then it will get another sales boost when people jump in during the holiday. This is a Switch evergreen for sure.

People aren't buying a WiiU just to play this. That ship has sailed.
 

EviLore

Expansive Ellipses
Staff Member
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.
 
What the hell is that D-pad?
I'll never get tired of this joke.

So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.
My favorite part is that the Wii U version of Breath of the Wild will likely be the best version, considering its use of the gamepad.
 

Maiar_m

Member
I would have bet money on the Wii and DS failing hard. Reaaally hard. I was not sold on the concepts, hated the looks of them and I thought they were really expensive (I was very young and had no income so that helped).

They sold more of those than there is salt on GAF right now.

I thought the Wii U was going to sell like crack. "Wait, a Wii plus so still relevant to the casual audience, with a bit more power and that you're free to play off TV? Families will love that!" Hindsight tells me I'm not going to find a job in fortune telling anytime soon.

I also thought the iPhone and iPad would end up in the discount baskets of retailers because they were overpriced and didn't seem to meet an actual need. "Who wants to type on this? Touchscreens aren't ergonomic! Small screens aren't good for media consumption either! Gimme an ipod and a blackberry all day, movies and short videos I'll watch on my desktop!" Clearly, I have a gift.

The price of the Switch base unit and its accessories do make me think think it's going to fail, its relatively unappealing launch line-up doesn't inspire confidence and gamers' lack of love for what they perceive as "underpowered, handheld" games do make me think this one will fail as well....but clearly, I know nothing :/ Still, it feels so, so poorly thought out. The stars were aligned before the conference. Low-priced hybrid console with just enough power to make great hybrid games, games sold at Nintendo price (50$ max) and an emphasis on local multiplayer, helped by low-cost accessories and diverse SKUs (no need to buy two docks for one home). And they went the complete opposite way.
 

Lothars

Member
Not with the prices they are asking. Now If they do similar to what they did with the 3DS and offer an ambassador program and drop the price than it's possible that it will do significantly better but so far I don't think it has a whole lot of hope.
 
I think it'll do better numbers than WiiU but less than the 3DS and Wii. I'm enthusiastic about the console but there's a lot of stuff that I think don't make it as appealing to the casual crowd as I think they want it to be.
 
I think a lot of people are being too quick to say that this will bomb. This is the same forum that said the Vita would kill the 3DS and we all know how that went down.

I don't think the system will bomb, but unless they make some heavy changes I don't see this beating the 3DS LTD. My guess would be (without any changes) a 40-55m LTD.

Animal Crossing, Monster Hunter and Pokémon alone will power this above Wii U's LTD and above 20m LTD.
 

MUnited83

For you.
Why do you keep holding on to the notion that it's a handheld when the Switch website calls it their next home console that has a portable mode and Nintendo did the same multiple times in their presentation? It's like people have Trump complex where if they say something false long enough they start to believe it.

It's a hybrid but I think they're leaving the door open for a 3ds successor. Seems to big to be a dedicated handheld and battery life is poor.
Did you miss my whole post that you quoted where I say they just call it so because it's convenient for them?
A 3DS sucessor is not coming any time soon. At best you will get a new version of the Switch that is a little bit more handheld oriented. But it's still going to be a Switch.
 

TuXx

Member
The fact that Sony and Microsoft sells better hardware at a cheaper price is very telling. I'd be surprised if this thing sells more than the Wii U
 

bomblord1

Banned
Most definitely will be a success I've never personally been more hyped for a Nintendo system every thing about it seems to be coming together perfectly.
 

emb

Member
No.

I think it had a decent opportunity, but they really faltered with the online stuff. Need more details to really say, but from their messaging so far it sounds like everything about the approach there is bad.

Price and software are pretty much par for the course. Zelda looks amazing, but there's the fact that it's also on Wii U. Mario is a ways off. 300 is a little too close to PS4/XO for comfort. A lot of the stuff had me excited, but I didn't see much that I expect will bring a large audience.
 

Athreous

Member
That "screenless" gameplay is the most stupid thing I've ever seen from nintendo...

I'm still buying the console for Zelda, Mario and maybe one day Metroid Prime on the go, but it will be just as my wii u, used a few hours in a year...
 
People aren't buying a WiiU just to play this. That ship has sailed.

As a lifelong Zelda fan, I might. Not now for the absurd $300 new price Nintendo still laughably charges, but I'll get a used one once they're in the bargain bin. Zelda alone isn't worth buying a Switch to me, and nothing else they've shown convinces me either. Their decisions are just baffling, one after another.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
No.

I was all for the hybrid approach as long as they priced it reasonably and launched it right with a strong set of new BIG games.

Instead its way too expensive, battery life dreadful, and the most anaemic lineup yet which in and of itself is an acheivement. Oh and Paid Online is literal insanity on their part.

What you're going to see is creative accounting of sales as Nintendo execs try to persuade investors that they need to stay in hardware as it suits them creatively. But just like the mobile denial, Nintendo will be going full third party in about a decade from now.
 
I think it has a much better launch lineup than the last 2 platforms. Zelda, Kart, Splatoon, xeno and Mario all within 9 months of launch. As long as hardware is available and nothing major gets delayed I think it has a much better chance of an early adoption boom.

Plus, as much as we all scoffed at it, an exclusive, legitimate version of Fifa if done right could attract a whole lot of people into the game that otherwise wouldn't have considered it.

What if they can drop the price to $259 by Christmas and Black Friday gets it down to 230...
And if Nintendo does some hardcore youtube marketing to 8 year olds, maybe a lot of parents will buy it. *shrugs*

At the current price, line-up architecture/power, I don't see it succeed with adults. But you mustn't forget all the people who bought a 3DS and a Wii U and now only have to buy one device for this gen, to them it should be an ok deal if more 3DS-like games will follow.

This is absoultely possible, considering Xbox one and Ps4 prices this year.
 
What if they can drop the price to $259 by Christmas and Black Friday gets it down to 230...
And if Nintendo does some hardcore youtube marketing to 8 year olds, maybe a lot of parents will buy it. *shrugs*

At the current price, line-up architecture/power, I don't see it succeed with adults. But you mustn't forget all the people who bought a 3DS and a Wii U and now only have to buy one device for this gen, to them it should be an ok deal if more 3DS-like games will follow.
 

JMY86

Member
The Switch has zero chance of being successful at $299 add in a game and an accessory or another game and this thing has a $500 buy in. The hardcore Nintendo fans will buy it but I can't see many others paying this price. If Nintendo is content to stay in the niche Wii U user base they will be golden because the launch line-up looks less than stellar and third party support is already weak. If they have enough sense to drop the price to $199 for the holidays and release some quality games they might have a fighting chance...
 

Peléo

Member
Erm, I'm still surprised by what was shown in terms of design. According to the initial trailer, Switch was mainly a machine capable of both home and portable gaming, with a strong local multiplayer aspect.

Now the Switch is a completely different beast, the Joy-Cons are Wii-Mote 2.0 (instead of a $10 cheap controller for local multiplayer) and the hybrid aspect barely touched during the presentation.

I don't think this strategy will work out. The decision to go for accurate motion controls and HD rumble increases the price significantly. It also makes buying additional controllers a bit harder.
 

BumRush

Member
This post is extremely foolish for a number of reasons

1. Microsoft has arguably the best online infrastructure in the industry although we can argue all day whether or not it's worth $60 a year. The millions paying a subscription voted "yes" with their wallets. Sony offered PSN for free while they built up a network that has proven it can compete with Microsoft and now they charge. I don't pay for it but millions do because they believe it provides value. Nintendo has proved nothing but incompetence with their online gaming strategy so why the hell would I want to pay for what will most likely be a stripped down service compared to the competition? They are already making us download a smartphone app for voice chat which is idiotic.

2. PS4/XBO controllers are not $60-$75, if you think that you clearly don't own either system or are too lazy to shop around online. I can get both for $50 at retail and even cheaper often because they go on sale unlike Nintendo products.

3. Trying to argue Switch has a robust library by comparing it to the Wii U in 2016 is laughable. Nintendo hardly showed anything remotely interesting other than Zelda. 3D Mario is due Holiday 2017 but we all know it's probably getting delayed to 2018.

4. Stop looking at $300 in a vacuum and making fun of people who think it's $50 to expensive. Have you considered how much it will cost when buying a game or two, paying for online, buying an extra controller for your friend/loved one? What about those in other territories that have the price jacked up even more? You have no right to lambast people over what they consider too expensive.

5. The Nintendo victim complex needs to stop. Nobody is holding a grudge or jealous of the Wii U. It failed because nobody cared about it outside of hardcore Nintendo fans defending questionable decisions on message boards and deflecting all criticism. They are making a lot of the same missteps Wii U had: Hardware that's underpowered and too expensive, alieniating western 3rd party developers, expensive controller...and now add on paid online and ridiculous accessory prices. We have every right to be skeptical and it has nothing to do with hating Nintendo.

Honestly I'm surprised you didn't pull a "everyone complaining wasn't going to buy one anyway" one liner.

Good post. People defending Nintendo is fine, but what you listed are valid criticisms.

Also, maybe it isn't fair to do, but the $300 NEEDS to be compared to what's on the market now, not what the One and PS4 released at. You can get a PS4 slim with U4 for $270 and a One S with Battlefield 1 for the same price. Both of those consoles have 500 GB and access to hundreds of games (many of which are at a deep discount at this point).

Naturally, people are going to compare to that...
 
Jack of all trades master of none....The software lineup is barren with almost no third party support,and it's overpriced, it's pretty easy to see why it is seen as bad.

Software lineup is barren? Oh yes of course, they only have 2 of their biggest franchises coming out within the launch window.
 

ironcreed

Banned
So, let's see....

-Performance clearly superior to a Raspberry Pi 3, probably.
-Built-in storage enough for installing as many as 1-2 games
-Voice comm requiring the use of an app on your cell phone
-Paid subscription online service feature list competitive with Heat.net
-Peripheral pricing so high and bizarrely lopsided with the initial hardware bundle that it makes buying a second Switch for parts a sensible option

...that's pretty dire, but it's still a much more compelling product than the Wii U at first reveal, simply by virtue of being a handheld. Might be somewhat more successful than the Wii U since it's not trying to leverage a poorly thought out archaic tablet as a unique selling point this time, but the cost of ownership is looking *astronomically* high. It's arguably higher than the major console competition, given the peripheral pricing, anemic built-in storage, low value paid online, etc., so it's abandoning a lot of the appeal that would otherwise come with being a handheld.

Handheld form factor and performance, but with $60 game pricing, paid online, tiny storage, and obscene peripheral costs. Worst of both worlds, arguably, and the mediocre mobile SoC isn't going to do it any favors when people hook it up to their living room setups. I seriously doubt I'll want to stretch out Switch games onto my 75" 4K HDR TV.

Not exactly situated to take the market by storm with all that and a very thin launch lineup. Not something that's easy to root for as a consumer, either, since Nintendo loaded up on anti-consumer business decisions here. It's telling that first shipment pre-orders are still available.

No.

tumblr_msonxfT6gO1qbm8k3o1_500.gif


In a nutshell. They are trying to merge the home and portable markets, but it fails on both fronts miserably.
 

Kacho

Member
No I don't think it'll be a success. Nintendo has lost their minds. Laughable launch lineup, ports ports ports, no virtual console information, this doesn't appear to be the hybrid we thought it would be so it seems like we can look forward to more software droughts, expensive accessories. It's the perfect storm of Nintendo fuckery.
 
Honestly just looking at the situation as objectively as you can. A console that's underpowered and overpriced compared to the already established competition, with Wii U ports people already didn't buy on the last failed console. A handheld that's very expensive with $60 games I assume. Releasing right alongside mass effect and horizon. With very little in the way of third party support except poets of old games like street fighter 2 and bomber man.

I mean


What about any of this makes you think this will be a successful



It's funny because when it was rumoured to be 250 dollars, I kept saying it was an expensive handheld with good specs but a good priced home console with bad specs.
Now it's an overpriced handheld with nice specs and an expensive console with bad specs.
 

kewlmyc

Member
If they treat it as the next handheld and force it to be the only system with Pokemon/Monster Hunter on it, then yes, it will.
 

BriGuy

Member
It depends on whether Nintendo commits to the unified console/handheld philosophy. If they do, then it will at least do better than the Wii U. If on the other hand they put out a separate 3DS successor, then the Switch will probably wither and die like the Wii U.
 

orioto

Good Art™
That's really the crux of it and things like that are hard to predict. If they can make a killer app like Wii Sports that goes shockingly viral, the thing could take off. I think it's still a bit early in the game to call it, but some of the aspects of the launch smack of Wii U

That's not going to happen.
Look at 12Switch, cause that's their attempt at that here. Look at it, closely, honestly and ask yourself. Can i see people lining up like crazy for it, like they did for Wii Sport some years ago ?

About the thread question.
I think it's pretty clear from people hyped about the thing everywhere in this "small world" of gamers on Internet, that it's currently appealing to WiiU owners who are Nintendo fan enough to buy it for sequels of the titles they liked, on basically the same hardware, at a higher price.

It'll do better than WiiU if the local multi becomes popular.
Now, the whole 3ds successor is so blurry right now it's difficult to say anything.. The thing is clearly oversized and overpriced for that market. And it's not even marketed at that demographic at all for now.

The price is wayyy underestimated by everyone here. Cause you got money in general, cause you're guys buying lots of stuff, and collectors etc.. And people try to convince themselves the "value" of the concept justifies it, when it doesn't. It's always the same thing.

It's difficult to estimate anything when everyone is basically saying "but i''s a portable and it will sell as such" when let's be honest here. The Switch, as a portable, for guys who play on portable (not at home), is a terribly questionable device..
 
i dont think this will be a success.

it feels like it's a wiiU enhanced edition.

they cram too much gimmicky features into those controllers and less focus on creating just a solid lineup of software.

i get they like trying new stuff and separating themselves from the rest of the field...but still, that strategy is so hit or miss for them.

the focus on casuals is palpable. they are fiending for that wii audience still.
 
I hate saying this, but no fucking way. After watching that stream last night, things are even worse than I thought. No games. None. They literally had some developer come up on stage and talk about a game that doesn't even have a name yet. Oh, and like 5 minutes of Fifa. If that's the best they've for their big anouncement event.......jesus they are so screwed. And I'm not spending 300 bucks for a new console to play Zelda on when I can just play it on Wii U.

I really hope they've got some bombs to drop at E3. As of right now, I'm not going anywhere near this console. I love love LOVE splatoon, but Splatoon 2 and a Mario game in the first 9 months are just not enough for me to shell out 300+ bucks.

Edit: second wind. Not to mention that the more power consoles with bigger, better libraries are going to be CHEAPER
 
lol at Gaf thinking the price is bad
Neogaf isn't some homogenous entity so I never get these "GAF thinks X" posts. Ignoring that, what right do you have to decide if I should feel something is too expensive or not? $300 for the system + $50 for a game + X amount for online sub + $80 for an extra controller + tax....I'm looking at around $450-$500 for a secondary console that hardly gets any meaningful 3rd party support. I am an adult with bills to pay, my parents don't buy my games nor do I have a ton of disposable income to waste on a hobby. I would spend that money if the value was there but Nintendo is not providing it for me and many others.
 
Moderate slightly underwhelming Launch Sales
Large upswing when Pokemon STARS launches
3rd Party Abandonment 2.5-3 years in due to poor sales on console and software

I suppose it depends how you define success. I think it's launch price is unattractive but not something Nintendo can avoid. Unfortunately for them you can pick up an 500GB Xbox One S for £220 and a 500GB PS4 for about the same. If you don't own either of them they are infinitely more attractive from a Price stand point since not only are they much stronger but they have pre-existing libraries.
 
It aint gonna do PS4 / XBONE numbers that's for sure.

I can't help but think this is what the WiiU should have been.

I think it'll scrape by.
 
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