The LA Times weighs in with some interesting tracking info for Avatar.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/la-et-word26-2009nov26,0,3856425.story
Personally I've heard (from someone in a postion to know) that Avatar (as of last week I believe) is currently tracking to open at $40-45m which, with three weeks to go, isn't a definite number at all.
Tracking in general this year hasn't exactly been on the money, and like any prediction can go up over the coming weeks. And it has to be said, down as well. Abrams' Star Trek was, (IIRC) tracking at $50m three or four weeks out and opened at $76m give or take so that
might be a comparable film.
But in saying that, it's clear that while Avatar won't bomb as some people think (hope?), it isn't going to be giving New Moon's record breaking weekend any sleepless nights either.
The question then becomes, if Avatar were to open tomorrow, would a $40m opening weekend be enough.
And the answer? A resounding '
maybe'.