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Apt101 · Oct 14, 2015

Drats, missed the deadline. But were I to make a prediction I don't think either the PS4 or the X1 are going to make quite the splash in September many here are predicting. Likely very close to August's numbers, my guess.

Edit: thanks for the headsup DriftingSpirit

Primethius said:
To piggy off this a bit, I'm surprised at how Amazon's monthly chart is looking at the moment. Halo's at the top but XB1 really doesn't seem to be getting the boost. I really wouldn't think that Halo 5 is coming out in a couple of weeks looking at it.

I don't find it that surprising, the X1 never seems to rise very high over at Amazon regardless of the upcoming releases, and when it does it falls back down again and settles around #35 quickly. No idea why that is, the two consoles are pretty close in the US (right?).

DriftingSpirit · Oct 14, 2015

I have not been feeling it either. As I said earlier, I was expecting mass promotion as soon as October hit. I'm not seeing it. It will obviously ramp up but I figured they would have tried to completely dominate this month with promotion. It is going to be tough next month with Battlefront and CoD launching.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 14, 2015

donny2112 said:
Hi all,

Going to extend the predictions out to Thursday, October 15 at 8 p.m. EDT. The reasoning is that most everyone that normally predicts would've done so by this evening, anyways, but with the NPD release pushed back, can give an extra couple of days to anyone who would've otherwise just missed the cutoff time. Feel free to edit your predictions until Thursday, then. (^_^)

Apt101 said:
Drats, missed the deadline. But were I to make a prediction I don't think either the PS4 or the X1 are going to make quite the splash in September many here are predicting. Likely very close to August's numbers, my guess.

You still have time.

Primethius · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Given the ongoing discussion about the "hype" for Halo feeling low for many I decided to do a quick and dirty check on the twitter trends for Halo 5 vs CoD vs Battlefront. The results paint a pretty clear picture. One that I think echos the sentiment of many in this very thread.

The battlefront beta certainly gave it a mindshare boost and while that seems to be dropping off it has certainly escalated far past Halos numbers. Likewise the launch trailer seems to have given Halo a noticeable bump in attention but still pales in comparison to the numbers CoD and Battlefront have drawn. This is especially surprising to me considering how close Halo is to release at this point. What do you all think?

To piggy back off this a bit, I'm surprised at how Amazon's monthly chart is looking at the moment. Halo's at the top but XB1 really doesn't seem to be getting the boost. I really wouldn't think that Halo 5 is coming out in a couple of weeks looking at it.

Apt101 · Oct 14, 2015

[3DS] 75k
[PS4] 220k
[WIU] 43k
[XB1] 200k

Obliterator · Oct 14, 2015

The lack of Halo 5 marketing push is odd. I can only assume that they are saving it all for one huge push during launch week

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Blanquito said:
It's tough with things like this I feel like, because what happens if you include "halo" with "halo 5"? Or "blops" with "cod"? Or other hashtags that the marketing dept has come up with (#huntthetruth or whatever the halo one is)? I just don't know how much it indicates total interest, but the graph does at least show general trends (like the beta and launch trailers).

True enough. Hadn't really thought how that might impact things. Like I said "quick and dirty look." Looking at the trends though "Halo" does track significantly higher than "Halo 5" with "#huntthetruth" barely even registering at all.

However, many of the top tweets for the tracking of "Halo" are in relation to MCC, Reach Backwards compatibility, and other topics totally unrelated to Halo 5. This is in stark contrast to Battlefront or CoD where all the daily top tweets were in relation to the upcoming games.

blakep267 · Oct 14, 2015

Obliterator said:
The lack of Halo 5 marketing push is odd. I can only assume that they are saving it all for one huge push during launch week

they'll probably start doing twitch streams of certain missions like they did with MCC last year soon, and more commercials will start showing I'm guessing

But WOM would be the best form of marketing but that wouldn't happen until after launch

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Primethius said:
To piggy off this a bit, I'm surprised at how Amazon's monthly chart is looking at the moment. Halo's at the top but XB1 really doesn't seem to be getting the boost. I really wouldn't think that Halo 5 is coming out in a couple of weeks looking at it.

This also lines up with what some here were saying. Mainly that Halo 5 will likely sell well but it will sell to the existing user base and likely won't attract many in the way of new users for XB1. Granted there is still time left before release so it remains to be seen but most metrics I am seeing are looking decidedly muted when it comes to Halo 5 being the sort of juggernaut console pusher it used to be.

ethomaz · Oct 14, 2015

PS4 at Amazon OMG!!!

I will do my late prediction tomorrow lol

Blanquito · Oct 14, 2015

Primethius said:
To piggy off this a bit, I'm surprised at how Amazon's monthly chart is looking at the moment. Halo's at the top but XB1 really doesn't seem to be getting the boost. I really wouldn't think that Halo 5 is coming out in a couple of weeks looking at it.

wow. That's... uh... crazy. Probably won't last though

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

ethomaz said:
PS4 at Amazon OMG!!!

I will do my late prediction tomorrow lol

Uhh what? Did something happen on Amazon in regards to PS4?

Sangetsu-II · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Uhh what? Did something happen on Amazon in regards to PS4?

It's up 2 SKU's (Destiny & TLOU) over XB1 on Halo Month and the bundle releases in a week. I'm also in shock!
(Mind you the gap between the 2 PS4 consoles is far away the XB1 Bundle and UC Bundle is reaching Halo bundle too! and there isn't any other XB1 bundle in the top 100!)

ethomaz · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Uhh what? Did something happen on Amazon in regards to PS4?

Well since price cut all PS4 bundles go up in the ranking... there are 6 PS4 bundles in the TOP100 (only 4 counts for October).
The best Xbone's bundle (Halo 5) is behind PS4 TTK LE and PS4 TLOU.

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Sangetsu-II said:
It's up 2 SKU's (Destiny & TLOU) over XB1 on Halo Month and the bundle releases in a week. I'm also in shock!
(Mind you the gap between the 2 PS4 consoles is far away the XB1 Bundle and UC Bundle is reaching Halo bundle too! and there isn't any other XB1 bundle in the top 100!)

ethomaz said:
Well since price cut all PS4 bundles go up in the ranking... there are 6 PS4 bundles in the TOP100 (only 4 counts for October).
The best Xbone's bundle (Halo 5) is behind PS4 TTK LE and PS4 TLOU.

The month is not even half way over yet. Little early to be reading so much into the monthly charts. Especially when Sony just announced a $50 price cut. Of course that is going to boost their sales a bit. XB1 sales should see some boost on the release of Halo 5 as well. Wait for the full picture.

Sangetsu-II · Oct 14, 2015

ethomaz said:
Well since price cut all PS4 bundles go up in the ranking... there are 6 PS4 bundles in the TOP100 (only 4 counts for October).
The best Xbone's bundle (Halo 5) is behind PS4 TTK LE and PS4 TLOU.

The most shocking thing is there isn't any other XB1 bundle in the top 100!

I'm starting to think XB1 might lose October.

ethomaz · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
The month is not even half way over yet. Little early to be reading so much into the monthly charts. Especially when Sony just announced a $50 price cut. Of course that is going to boost their sales a bit. XB1 sales should see some boost on the release of Halo 5 as well. Wait for the full picture.

Halo 5 will only counts for the last week of October... I don't think the rank will change with PS4 having 3 weeks of price cut before Halo 5 launch.

ethomaz · Oct 14, 2015

For these that are not following the Amazon October ranking.

#21 PS4 Destiny: TKK LE
#27 PS4 TLOU:R
#28 PS4 Star Wars *
#40 XB1 Halo 5 LE
#57 PS4 Uncharted
#65 PS4 CoD LE *

* PS4 Star Wars and PS4 CoD LE counts for November NPD *

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

ethomaz said:
Halo 5 will only counts for the last week of October... I don't think the rank will change with PS4 having 3 weeks of price cut before Halo 5 launch.

You have to also remember that the Halo bundle was a BIG seller (#24 on monthly) during its debut month. All the preorders prior to this month wont be showing up on the October charts. As such these charts might not provide as accurate of a sales barometer this time around

Mikey Jr. · Oct 14, 2015

Halo is going to be very interesting. I really don't know what to think about its sales power anymore.

In my opinion, and this is coming from someone who doesn't play Halo much at all lately, I am definitely not seeing the same hype that I did with Halo 3.

Halo 3 seemed like the pinnacle for hype. The whole "finish the fight" campaign even got me pumped. I only played Halo 1 and 2, and kind of enjoyed them, but even I was like "Fuck yes! I want to finish the fight!" with 3.

Now its like "Hunt the truth!"

What truth? Wait, who is hunting who now? Why do I care?

Dunno, Halo has lots going against it.

-Halo 4 apparently wasn't great (dunno, never played it)
-MCC was an unmitigated disaster
-Bungie released their own "Halo", maybe siphoning the Halo userbase

I hope it does well. I have no ill will towards it.

Bgamer90 · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
The month is not even half way over yet. Little early to be reading so much into the monthly charts. Especially when Sony just announced a $50 price cut. Of course that is going to boost their sales a bit. XB1 sales should see some boost on the release of Halo 5 as well. Wait for the full picture.

The rank for the Halo bundle in comparison to everything else on the montlhy list would obviously be higher if we added in how it's been doing since August.

Due to that + it being a $500 bundle + there being a cheaper (IMO, better value) XB1 bundle releasing one week before Halo 5's launch, I really think it's far too soon to say how the system will do this month based on what's currently being shown. If things pretty much stay this way after Halo is released though? Then yeah, some of these comments would make more sense to me.

Sangetsu-II · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
You have to also remember that the Halo bundle was a BIG seller (#24 on monthly) during its debut month. All the preorders prior to this month wont be showing up on the October charts. As such these charts might not provide as accurate of a sales barometer this time around

True although in September it was basically dead on the charts, I can see your point. Thanks for stabilizing my shock. I'll just subtract the months and add em up (cuz you know math and stuff) to put the Halo bundle at a close #16 vs. the 2 PS4's at #21 & #27 this month.

Should be a close month (maybe close to a tie) this time around.

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Bgamer90 said:
The rank for the Halo bundle in comparison to everything else on the montlhy list would obviously be higher if we added in how it's been doing since August.

Due to that + it being a $500 bundle + there being a cheaper (IMO, better value) XB1 bundle releasing one week before Halo 5's launch, I really think it's far too soon to say how the system will do this month based on what's currently being shown. If things pretty much stay this way after Halo is released though? Then yeah, some of these comments would make more sense to me.

agreed. I'm curious on your thoughts about the trends I posted earlier. Halo v CoD v Battlefront. What do you think about the suprisingly modest tracking for Halo in comparison to other AAA FPS titles this holiday?

Due to that + it being a $500 bundle

This decision still baffles me. It would have sold so much more at a lower/more appropriate price point.

DriftingSpirit · Oct 14, 2015

I guess MS figured the Halo brand would carry the $500 price point.

Elandyll · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
...

This decision still baffles me. It would have sold so much more at a lower/more appropriate price point.

On one hand, yes, perhaps.

On the other, there already are $349 XB1 bundles, and they aren't doing so great atm on Amazon #shrug

Given what I'm seeing -ATM-, the only shot the XB1 has to win the NPD in Nov/ Dec is a $50 drop.

October is still in the air imo, but if the XB1 hasn't made ground by the 20th, I think it's a PS4 win.

Boke1879 · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
agreed.

This decision still baffles me. It would have sold so much more at a lower/more appropriate price point.

I don't know WHY they didn't offer this bundle for $400. It leads me to believe they know the this bundle will sale and their trying to make a bit of extra profit off of it. Still $500 is still a bit too much to ask.

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Elandyll said:
On one hand, yes, perhaps.

On the other, there already are $349 XB1 bundles, and they aren't doing so great atm on Amazon #shrug

Eh maybe you're right. I don't know it just strikes me as odd that they would seemingly price their big Holiday bundle outside the mass market range.

blakep267 · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
agreed. I'm curious on your thoughts about the trends I posted earlier. Halo v CoD v Battlefront. What do you think about the suprisingly modest tracking for Halo in comparison to other AAA FPS titles this holiday?

This decision still baffles me. It would have sold so much more at a lower/more appropriate price point.

ehh, I mean if somebody walks into gamestop and wants to buy halo with a console, they probably will end up leaving with a gears bundle or the RR, Ori, Gears bundle which would both be cheaper than the Halo bundle

RexNovis said:
Eh maybe you're right. I don't know it just strikes me as odd that they would seemingly price their big Holiday bundle outside the mass market range.

Also I think Fallout would fall under the Big holiday bundle rather than Halo

Boke1879 · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Eh maybe you're right. I don't know it just strikes me as odd that they would seemingly price their big Holiday bundle outside the mass market range.

It leads me to believe that they know they have to start being profitable and this bundle is a way to get a bit of extra money out of hardcore fans.

Elandyll · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Eh maybe you're right. I don't know it just strikes me as odd that they would seemingly price their big Holiday bundle outside the mass market range.

Oh I agree that a $349 or $399 bundle for Halo5 would have made a lot of sense, specially for the Holidays.

The $499 pricing is the only thing making me pondering if the Xbox division isn't on a quest for profits this year.
But then again, there's the weird Lego bundle which makes no sense at $349...

Majmun · Oct 14, 2015

Can't believe there's no $349 Halo 5 bundle...

The $499 one is ridiculous.

Bgamer90 · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
This decision still baffles me. It would have sold so much more at a lower/more appropriate price point.

Yeah, I was honestly expecting $399. I wouldn't be surprised if MS planned this to make the 1TB Holiday bundle look to be an even better value though.

The Halo bundle is selling since it's a special Halo console (Halo fans are eating it up). The 1TB Holiday bundle releasing on October 20th is $399 and comes with three free games (Ori, Gears, and Rare). I doubt that MS packing in Gears, Rare, and Ori (old games) costs them much money either. If someone buys this bundle alongside Halo 5, then they will get 4 games with an Xbox One for basically the same price as the Halo 5 bundle ($500).

This may be the highest month for Xbox Ones being sold at $399 or more since 2014.

Welfare · Oct 14, 2015

The Halo 5 bundle is $499 because the thing will still sell a shitton.

I mean, since the hourly Amazon charts are all the rage, the bundle is selling around the same as all the other PS4 bundles, and in the monthly chart it is selling more than the UC bundle.

There are going to be 3 other bundles consumers can buy when Halo 5 launches (Lego, 3 game bundle, and Kinect bundle), so a Halo bundle being a premium price makes sense.

Javin98 · Oct 14, 2015

I find it strange that buyers on Amazon seem to prefer the PS4 TLOU bundle rather than the Uncharted bundle. One came out months ago and the other just came out this month. The Uncharted bundle also comes with better value with 3 remastered games instead of one. Regarding Halo 5, the game itself seems to be selling very well, being consistently in the top 5 spot for the past few days. However, the bundle still remains in the #30-#40 range and it's less than a week from release. I doubt we will see a large boost in the next few days and I expect it to be in the #20's range. I think the high price point is really holding the appeal of the bundle back, but Microsoft seems to be focusing on revenue this time around.

Obliterator · Oct 14, 2015

The Halo 5 bundle is gonna move a good chunk of hardware so I really wouldn't be too worried about it

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Obliterator said:
The Halo 5 bundle is gonna move a good chunk of hardware so I really wouldn't be too worried about it

I never said it won't sell. It definitely will. But it would have sold a lot more at a more competitive price point. $499 is just way too high if they want to sell to the average consumer this holiday season.

Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, I was honestly expecting $399. I wouldn't be surprised if MS planned this to make the 1TB Holiday bundle look to be an even better value though.

The Halo bundle is selling since it's a special Halo console (Halo fans are eating it up). The 1TB Holiday bundle releasing on October 20th is $399 and comes with three free games (Ori, Gears, and Rare). I doubt that MS packing in Gears, Rare, and Ori (old games) costs them much money either. If someone buys this bundle alongside Halo 5, then they will get 4 games with an Xbox One for basically the same price as the Halo 5 bundle ($500).

This may be the highest month for Xbox Ones being sold at $399 or more since 2014.

Which is exactly why I get the impression they are trying to re-inflate the price of their product. Almost like they aren't comfortable at their current price point or something. Considering the crazy discounts and deals they put out last year it really is quite the change. With the holiday consumers basically being at their most price sensitive I'm not sure this is going to pay off for them. They won last holiday off the backs of heavy discounts and lower prices than their direct competitor. Without this advantages this holiday season and with the PS4 getting its first official price drop I don't see things playing out in their favor this time around. They basically pinned their chances of success wholly on their holiday catalogue so it will largely depend on the quality and appeal of those titles more so than anything else.

Apt101 · Oct 14, 2015

Wow, all of the Halo 5 bundles are $500. Kind of a dubious decision I guess. Not like the market is scrambling for X1's as is. Maybe a $400 H5 bundle closer to the holidays will spur more sales this way?

Ryng_tolu · Oct 14, 2015

All considering, i still expect a "Comeback" from XB1 on Amazon the lasts days of October.
If that's didn't happen, i will go with PS4 wins Oct.

N.Domixis · Oct 14, 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:
All considering, i still expect a "Comeback" from XB1 on Amazon the lasts days of October.
If that's didn't happen, i will go with PS4 wins Oct.

pretty obvious which console will win this month.

Jigorath · Oct 14, 2015

Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Obliterator · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
I never said it won't sell. It definitely will. But it would have sold a lot more at a more competitive price point. $499 is just way too high if they want to sell to the average consumer this holiday season.

The Halo 5 bundle isn't for the average consumer this Holiday. It doest have that kind of Inventory.

donny2112 · Oct 14, 2015

Jigorath said:
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

PS4 price drop. And 2 weeks earlier in the month. It's not a foregone conclusion, anymore.

Edit:
360 in Halo 3 launch month sold 528K or ~105K per week (5-week month). If they matched Halo 3's weekly console sales, they'd get ~420K in the month, and that's possibly optimistic. PS4's baseline is still around 50K per week absent some other drivers, so that's 200K for the month. "Other drivers" to change that are a $50 price drop and bundles, bundles, bundles everywhere. XB1 can match the bundles, bundles everywhere part, but it remains to be seen how much the $50 price drop would push up PS4 over its nominal baseline. XB1 could very well still win October, but it's just not a foregone conclusion, anymore, in my mind.

Javin98 · Oct 14, 2015

Ryng_Tolu said:
All considering, i still expect a "Comeback" from XB1 on Amazon the lasts days of October.
If that's didn't happen, i will go with PS4 wins Oct.

I expect a comeback too, but I don't think the Halo 5 bundle will be appealing enough to appear in the top 20 position on the Amazon charts. I mean, we're six days from release of the bundle and it's only starting to slowly rise up the charts.

Jigorath said:
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

Is this a satirical post? Feels like something someone said before the PS4 price drop was announced.

jryi · Oct 14, 2015

RexNovis said:
Which is exactly why I get the impression they are trying to re-inflate the price of their product.

MS may be anchoring the price higher than where it used to be so that Black Friday deals look better. Last holiday season they benefited a lot from the fact that the starting price for the console used to be $499 not that long earlier. This time, to gain the same effect, they would have to drop the price to something like $249 or even lower, and I doubt Xbox unit can afford that (i.e. they have no way to justify the losses incurred).

May I say that October NPD is going to be interesting?

RexNovis · Oct 14, 2015

Jigorath said:
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

The first official PS4 price drop complicates things a bit. At the very least it will be a lot closer than you seem to think.

jryi said:
MS may be anchoring the price higher than where it used to be so that Black Friday deals look better. Last holiday season they benefited a lot from the fact that the starting price for the console used to be $499 not that long earlier. This time, to gain the same effect, they would have to drop the price to something like $249 or even lower, and I doubt Xbox unit can afford that (i.e. they have no way to justify the losses incurred).

May I say that October NPD is going to be interesting?

That's an interesting theory... I must admit that never occurred to me. Basically sacrificing mass market appeal outside of the holiday rush to maximize discount appeal. Doesn't seem like it would be worth the opportunity cost of those pre discount sales.

slavesnyder · Oct 14, 2015

jryi said:
MS may be anchoring the price higher than where it used to be so that Black Friday deals look better. Last holiday season they benefited a lot from the fact that the starting price for the console used to be $499 not that long earlier. This time, to gain the same effect, they would have to drop the price to something like $249 or even lower, and I doubt Xbox unit can afford that (i.e. they have no way to justify the losses incurred).

Yep, same tactics as oriental carpet vendors. Being able to put a huge DISCOUNT sign in the shop window because all their carpets are priced foolishly high.

Jigorath said:
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

No one underestimates the power of Halo.
The question is only if it will move consoles or if the audience already has the hardware and will just buy the game.

RexNovis said:
The month is not even half way over yet. Little early to be reading so much into the monthly charts. Especially when Sony just announced a $50 price cut. Of course that is going to boost their sales a bit. XB1 sales should see some boost on the release of Halo 5 as well. Wait for the full picture.

We know this is not the full picture yet. And we know Halo Console has build up some pre-sales.
But honestly, if I would have made a guess on the monthly charts beforehead and would compare it to the actual ones - well, looking sensational for Xbox is something different.

Hydrargyrus · Oct 14, 2015

Jigorath said:
Xbone is going to win October and it won't be close.

You guys keep underestimating the power of Halo and you're gonna end up very disappointed.

No one understimate the power of Halo, but seems like you are understimating the power of PS4 and the first price cut...

allan-bh · Oct 14, 2015

Sangetsu-II said:
It's up 2 SKU's (Destiny & TLOU) over XB1 on Halo Month and the bundle releases in a week. I'm also in shock!

Why? Of course PS4 is selling way more this week, nothing strange about that.

ethomaz · Oct 14, 2015

Javin98 said:
I find it strange that buyers on Amazon seem to prefer the PS4 TLOU bundle rather than the Uncharted bundle. One came out months ago and the other just came out this month. The Uncharted bundle also comes with better value with 3 remastered games instead of one. Regarding Halo 5, the game itself seems to be selling very well, being consistently in the top 5 spot for the past few days. However, the bundle still remains in the #30-#40 range and it's less than a week from release. I doubt we will see a large boost in the next few days and I expect it to be in the #20's range. I think the high price point is really holding the appeal of the bundle back, but Microsoft seems to be focusing on revenue this time around.

TLOU is more popular than Uncharted.
More praised too.

slavesnyder · Oct 14, 2015

ethomaz said:
TLOU is more popular than Uncharted.
More praised too.

Obviously, people know the game from the You know, Ellie-meme that started on NeoGAF.
Uncharted had no chance.

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