Any particular reason Pachter and Eedar see Wii bottoming out just as the holiday season begins and Wii Party releases? 200k seems awfully low, and would be a 60% drop yoy. I also would have predicted Wii 3rd, but not by such huge margins.jvm said:Don't have time for a table today. Sorry. Someone else format it, if it matters.
Pachter
Wii: 205K
PS3: 265K
360: 395K
PS2: 40K
PSP: 80K
NDS: 350K
EEDAR
Wii: 200K
PS3: 280K
360: 360K
PS2: --
PSP: 70K
NDS: 340K
Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:i've just edited my prediction
donny2112 said:On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
it's supposed to be released today but the release date got delayed to next Tuesday due to the holiday.ItWasMeantToBe19 said:Why has the NPD been moved to Tuesday? (OP says results release on November 16th)
donny2112 said:On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
I think you should develop a ranking scheme similar to what is used in chess. The more you play, the higher the chances of raising (or lowering) your rating. But if you don't play, your ranking will take a hit as well (I am not sure if this is included in chess ranking).donny2112 said:Sorry. On the good side, you're 25 points ahead of doicare for the year, so it doesn't necessarily kill the year. Missing the month would've been worse.
On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
We have the last three months column, which is at least something for people who start predicting late. However, the yearly rankings are most often the same group of people that predicted every month, even if they weren't consistently the best (looking in a mirror here :lol ). I'd rather not do something like putting in a default prediction for a missed month, since that's artificially adjusting their score. But what about taking the n-1 top months when determining the yearly prediction rankings? e.g. After October, only the top 9 months are used for the yearly totals. That way, if you miss a month, it would get thrown out. Missing two would still give you a zero for a month, though.
Thoughts?
NPD Oct numbers: Xbox 360 sold 325k consoles. So far, it is the best selling console in 2010 w/ 3.5 M Year To Date sold
Penguin said:Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.
Major Nelson
http://twitter.com/#!/majornelson/status/4672913189904384
Penguin said:Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.
Could be.DMeisterJ said:Major Nelson didn't say best selling... Wii comeback?
What was the difference last month?Jtyettis said:Would be hard not to be with such a slim margin left from last month over Wii YTD.
If one chooses hardware, then the Xbox 360 now appears to be tied with the Wii for the best selling platform of 2010. The data provided by the NPD Group actually puts the Xbox 360 up by just over 10,000 units, but we consider that small enough fall within the margin of error. Let us say that both systems have sold just over 3.2 million systems so far in 2010 and call it even.
so it's still possible they lost to Wii by 9k!Jtyettis said:Only a 10k unit difference as of last month.
Penguin said:Didn't say best selling of the month, but guess it might be.
Major Nelson
http://twitter.com/#!/majornelson/status/4672913189904384
Hmm... I had never seen that comment.Jtyettis said:Only a 10k unit difference as of last month.
DMeisterJ said:Major Nelson didn't say best selling... Wii comeback?
September.Frillen said:Wasn't something called the Move released in October?
I don't know that I'd advocate any change that affects the actual rankings. I've missed two months (never even saw this thread, sheesh), so I'm toast, but I'd be curious to see how the rankings change as we start stripping out 1 or 2 bad months, to measure the impact.donny2112 said:On that topic, assuming that we can continue predictions next year, any ideas to make missing a month less impactful?
October 2010 Last 3 Months Overall 2010
1. archnemesis 119.93 Jesse2040 306.47 Hiro_Kunimi_80 918.66
2. Baki 103.75 archnemesis 303.46 Jesse2040 909.04
3. jvm 102.71 jvm 297.39 doicare 908.69
4. Saiyar 102.62 Jonsoncao 293.36 confuziz 893.62
5. Road 102.1 Saiyar 291.13 Jonsoncao 877.84
6. NeoUltima 100.29 scottnak 288.98 Saiyar 875.14
7. Megadragon15 98.19 Road 285.35 Strike 874.75
8. scottnak 96.21 Ydahs 282.02 Pachter 871.96
9. confuziz 95.06 rostocker 277.36 jvm 864.21
10. Jokeropia 93.16 NeoUltima 274.59 bakemono 863.75
11. Jesse2040 91.64 N.A 274.06 Jokeropia 859.03
12. Instro 90.91 Jokeropia 273.49 Brakara 856.52
13. Ydahs 90.32 Zero-Crescent 270.41 scottnak 853.68
14. rostocker 90.23 confuziz 269.34 rostocker 848.21
15. Pachter 89.9 Strike 268.8 N.A 838.06
16. Zero-Crescent 89.65 miladesn 268.37 donny2112 833.44
17. Jonsoncao 88.91 Pachter 268.17 NeoUltima 823.84
18. Brakara 88.8 Megadragon15 267.72 archnemesis 820.14
19. VegaShinra 88.78 SonicX_Zero 267.41 Orgen 811.74
20. N.A 88.11 Brakara 266.9 jj984jj 805.36
21. skedar897 87.78 Osuwari 266.6 Megadragon15 801.56
22. Orgen 87.31 bakemono 264.89 Scott32020 792.2
23. donny2112 86.7 donny2112 264.4 Ydahs 791.63
24. doicare 86.11 doicare 261.93 Osuwari 790.33
25. Strike 85.95 jj984jj 261.27 Aad 784.33
26. jj984jj 84.97 skedar897 259.88 Road 771.57
27. miladesn 84.9 Hiro_Kunimi_80 258.17 dragct 771.23
28. timetokill 84.44 Scott32020 255.79 skedar897 771.13
29. Averon 83.28 Orgen 254.32 timetokill 741.07
30. Goldmund 82.45 Aad 249.34 SonicX_Zero 738.69
31. bakemono 81.85 sciplore 232.34 Gamemaster_ca_2003 717.78
32. SonicX_Zero 81.66 Gamemaster_ca_2003 227.45 andy_lhc 717.73
33. jonnybryce 81.33 perfectchaos007 223.4 Sadist 708.33
34. rayner 80.66 operon 222.61 WaltJay 706.47
35. Osuwari 76.79 Averon 200.36 starship 691.1
36. Gamemaster_ca_2003 74.85 manzo 196.04 lowlylowlycook 675.73
37. Scott32020 74.09 pitseleh 186.07 perfectchaos007 668.18
38. WaltJay 73.74 Sadist 184.95 Averon 652.11
39. LiquidMetal14 72.54 VegaShinra 182.99 modulaire 649.05
40. Hiro_Kunimi_80 71.15 timetokill 181.91 seady 647.84
41. Hammer24 70.7 seady 178.93 VegaShinra 635.12
42. u_neek 69.74 crazy monkey 177.69 sciplore 626.59
43. sciplore 68.39 lowlylowlycook 176.39 BLaZiN PRopHeT 601.61
44. Aad 68.3 Goldmund 174.32 boontje 596.23
45. I NEED SCISSORS 63.17 andy_lhc 174.11 pitseleh 592.09
46. JBuccCP 57.33 dragct 170.31 user_nat 591.61
47. perfectchaos007 56.41 rayner 164.71 botticus 591.52
48. WaltJay 149.34 SuperBanjo 591.42
49. Square Triangle 111.54 JoshuaJSlone 588.76
50. Baki 103.75 rayner 558.99
botticus said:One thing I've always thought would be nice would be an additional ranking by average points per prediction. This way missed months are removed. Maybe throw in a "(minimum [total/2] months) or something to omit people who had a lucky month and never predicted again.
botticus said:Is there any way we might get a "NPD Predictions Index" thread or something of that sort? Something that one could subscribe to, where you could just drop in a new post linking to the new predictions thread. Subscriptions are pretty much the only way I can keep up with the forum nowadays.
Hiro_Kunimi_80 said:[WII] 26K
Edit of 11/11 before any data comes out
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU..
i've just realized that i've wrote "[WII] 26K "
donny2112 said:October 2010 NPD Prediction Results
Units
39. Hiro_Kunimi_80 - 305,600
Points
[co
hey look, my last three months weren't so bad! I feel much more motivated nowLast 3 Months
miladesn 268.37
Pachter 268.17