I dont actually know what this list would be. It will certainly never have the power of the other consoles, but maybe ports arent what 3rd partys focus on.
Sales certainly come into play, and it looks like it will have that in the bag.
Do you think they should be jumping aboard or is there more critera nintendo needs to meet than what switch means in todays market?
The checklist for AAA third parties is probably pretty much:
1) Did Nintendo really piss us off in the past? (from what I surmise there are still some devs/publishers bitter about Nintendo's policies and attitudes from the NES/SNES days)
2) Can this game sell well enough on the Switch platform to justify?
And frankly, I think it is too early to tell. Just a pulling out of my butt guess - I'm guessing many devs are going to see how FIFA, NBA2K, Skyrim sell before taking that leap.
Like it or not, Nintendo consoles have pretty much been a secondary Nintendo exclusive-only consoles for many consumers (me included). So even with the initial promising sales of the Switch, that doesn't mean 3rd party games will sell well.
Also, the Switch doesn't have the horsepower and similar development requirements of the other platforms (PC/Xbox/PS4) that these companies produce for and I"m guessing will increase dev time (and cost) to try to make a Switch version - further eroding profits with a potentially small base that would buy it for that. (i.e. Someone like me who has multiple consoles - I'm less likely to buy Call of Duty on the Switch)
If it makes you feel any better, I double-dipped on Shovel Knight to get it on the Switch and bought Sonic Mania on the Switch. And plan on buying at least FIFA and NBA on the switch instead of XBox or PS4. I might double dip on Skyrim again to have it on the go. But I'm crazy and the exception, not the norm.