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NPD has been underestimating Digital Game Sales since at least 2010

O

Obliterator

Member
Via Gamasutra. Seems digital is and has been even bigger than we though in recent years.

According to NPD, these discrepancies came from a lack of information on digital game and DLC sales in past years. For example, the 2016 report said that 44 percent of all consumer game spending was on physical versions of games in 2015. This year's report now says that only 31 percent of game sales were physical in that same year.

As a result, 2015 consumer spending was previously reported as $16.5 billion, rather than the $23.2 billion indicated by current data. Those discrepancies go back as far as 2010 and range between 2 percent and 40 percent changes.
Click to expand...

Some pretty crazy info here. Seems the gaming industry is actually even stronger than we thought, off of the back of strong digital market.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...010.php?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
J

jon bones

hot hot hanuman-on-man action
as someone who works with a ton of data, it's hard to blame them

at least they can start adjusting and collecting this data going forward
 
N

nampad

Member
I am not surprised. They don't get data from the 3 platform holders and Steam, right? How would they possibly reliably estimate digitals sales then?
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Not surprising given some of the shipped + digital sales figures we have seen lately. Once Sony and Nintendo agree to share their digital sales data we will finally see how things are shaking out. Really fascinated to see if digital sales on consoles have crossed the 40% threshold.

nampad said:
I am not surprised. They don't get data from the 3 platform holders and Steam, right? How would they possibly reliably estimate digitals sales then?
Click to expand...

Microsoft just started sharing their data.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Kill3r7 said:
Not surprising given some of the shipped + digital sales figures we have seen lately. Once the Sony and Nintendo agree to share their data we will finally see how things are shaking out. Really fascinated to see if digital sales on consoles have crossed the 40% threshold.
Click to expand...

Some assuredly are over 40%. It varies from title to title but there are certainly ones eclipsing that. For example For Honor had a massive over 50% digital share in February NPD. That includes PC sales of course so that skew's thing, but its entirely possible console alone was in the 40% range.

Its one reason I suspect Destiny 2 figures may be sorta shocking when they hit. I think there's a chance physical Destiny 2 units are going to be down from Destiny 1, even though it will actually launch FAR bigger. It will be at least 50% digital attach imo.
 
N

Nyoro SF

Member
Yeah, people have been underestimating digital for years... the profit margin vs the required investment for a lot of the digital content is just massive.
 
T

Trup1aya

Member
Wow.

So at this point. At with a 70/30 split for publishers, revenues from digital sales is often surpassing that of physical sales, and has been for some time....

And people still wonder why digital prices remain so high... people are buying so many digital games at these prices, that there's no reason to cut into their margins.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
Gleethor said:
It's the opposite of low.
Click to expand...

I can't imagine it's as high as the others if only for the extremely limited storage space Nintendo consoles allow. I am 100% digital on their rivals, but 100% physical with Nintendo. I even buy fewer VC games because I can't buy them "on a whim" when I'm so concerned about storage.
 
J

Justinh

Member
I think it's important to keep in mind that the 2017 Essential ESA report thingy includes subscriptions and mobile apps as a part of "digital sales."

I'm not trying to downplay it or anything, as I think it's still spending for games and money for the industry but I don't think it's something that could be looked at like "x game probably sold this percentage digitally and that percentage physically."

I could be completely wrong though...

my1MePs.jpg
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Obliterator said:
Some assuredly are over 40%. It varies from title to title but there are certainly ones eclipsing that. For example For Honor had a massive over 50% digital share in February NPD. That includes PC sales of course so that skew's thing, but its entirely possible console alone was in the 40% range.

Its one reason I suspect Destiny 2 figures may be sorta shocking when they hit. I think there's a chance physical Destiny 2 units are going to be down from Destiny 1, even though it will actually launch FAR bigger. It will be at least 50% digital attach imo.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I pre-order Destiny digitally and did the same with Destiny 2. Although this time around everyone I know and play with are also doing the same, anecdotal evidence. That said, we have discussed this ad nauseam in the NPD monthly prediction threads previously and most use 30% as the standard digital attach rate. However, if we are now talking about about 40+% digital then the market is changing quicker than many anticipated.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Finale Fireworker said:
I can't imagine it's as high as the others if only for the extremely limited storage space Nintendo consoles allow. I am 100% digital on their rivals, but 100% physical with Nintendo. I even buy fewer VC games because I can't buy them "on a whim" when I'm so concerned about storage.
Click to expand...

They aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Here is Sony's digital revenue from PSN compared to Nintendo's on the eShop. Thank to ZhugeEX

C9Jb48zXsAApSkT.jpg:large
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/851844330515988480
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Jackstin said:
My personal theory is that is because enthusiasts and die hards bought the WiiU, and they are more likely to be collectors and traditionalist. With the Switch that will change. Just my theory though.
Click to expand...

Its also because Nintendo just hasn't done much to pursue / encourage digital sales compared to their competitors.

They up until recently didn't feature heavy DLC for their games, they didn't charge for online (again until recently / will be for the Switch), small internal storage on their devices, and also no super strong 3rd party support. Which means no cut of the huge amount of DLC games like COD, Destiny, etc. have been selling. They just haven't been in any sort of position to have strong digital growth in comparison to Xbox or Playstation.

That said I agree, I do expect Switch to be more favorable than 3DS / Wii U for them in terms of digital growth, but I still anticipate them being considerably behind Xbox and Playstation on that front for a while.

But yes regardless, things should start improving for them on that front.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Icedburden said:
If you take into account the Wii U was nintendos home console, and ms has the Xbox one while Sony had PS4... I wonder why?
Click to expand...

Even if you just look at percentage of revenue they are well below both MS and Sony.

This isn't some anti-Nintendo thing. They are just behind the industry average, that's just the way it is. No reason for anyone to get bent out of shape about it. They haven't done a great job of expanding that business.

I do expect them to do a much better job though moving forward.
 
B

barneystuta83

Member
Most of PC sales are digital. And a straw poll of friends and colleagues I'd have at around 40-50% on console.

Not the most accurate but digital is growing, massively. Particularly in this gen.

Both MS and Sony have solid libraries to call up now and with sales can match, even on occasion better, the prices you can get from a retailer.

Launch prices still skew to the retailer but that is because they 'have' to discount to compete.

If there was price parity in digital and retail at launch, i think the convenience of instant purchase/pre download would out weigh the fact it can be traded in. Digital sales would then over take retail.

It is a an interesting challenge for the platform owners, as they still need retailers to sell their consoles.

The landscape may be different in the next 5-10 years when 'anything' can play games (TVs, PCs, Tablets, Mobiles, etc). These will be sold in retail, although the platform holders will not own the distribution of these products.
 
M

malfcn

Member
Halo numbers?

I still prefer physical.
But if it's a really good deal, the only deal, or a game I know I'll always want on standby I go digital.

Cash is king, and I get better prices on physical typically.
 
A

Archtreyz

Member
Dougieflesh said:
It's gotta be low between those old policies and paltry memory included with their systems.
Click to expand...
Maybe with Wii and Wii U sales, but I could see 3DS bringing up a lot of those digital sales numbers. The numbers are still low, but I could see 3DS being far more impressive than the home consoles.
 
Ploid 3.0

Ploid 3.0

Member
60EffPeeEss said:
Big companies need to stop being little bitches about putting out accurate data on digital. We need it.
Click to expand...

For free? NPD sell this info right? What's in it for the console manufacturers that also value this info and have full control on how they let out the stats? Will NPD buy it?
 
F

foxuzamaki

Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
Mikey Jr.

Mikey Jr.

Member
Jackstin said:
My personal theory is that is because enthusiasts and die hards bought the WiiU, and they are more likely to be collectors and traditionalist. With the Switch that will change. Just my theory though.
Click to expand...

It comes with 32gb of storage, of which only 26gb is actually usable.

Not really promoting buying digital....anything!
 
D

Dougieflesh

Member
Archtreyz said:
Maybe with Wii and Wii U sales, but I could see 3DS bringing up a lot of those digital sales numbers. The numbers are still low, but I could see 3DS being far more impressive than the home consoles.
Click to expand...
You could be correct, but I believe that people would avoid digital on Switch due to it being tied to the actual system and not the account. Only Nintendo knows though.
foxuzamaki said:
Going by what little Nintendo has said about digital over the years, opposite of low is more likely correct
Click to expand...

I doubt it's anything but low. Nintendo doesn't talk about digital because they have absolutely nothing to discuss when it comes to it.
 
L

leeh

Member
cakely said:
I understood this reference, but he was claiming 900% digital distribution. :)
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Haha I never did!

I said you'd be crazy if you thought Halo 5 didn't sell more digitally :)

My nicotine craving, angry self may of actually hit the nail on the head.
Obliterator said:
They aren't even in the same stratosphere.

Here is Sony's digital revenue from PSN compared to Nintendo's on the eShop. Thank to ZhugeEX



https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/851844330515988480
Click to expand...
Dayum.
 
W

Wiped89

Member
For all those saying it's an understandable discrepancy, SEVEN BILLION is quite a big number to be out by...

I have mixed feelings though. It's good that gaming is stronger than we thought. I'm sad so many people are digital when discs are still cheaper and better IMO (in the UK at least).
 
Deputy Moonman

Deputy Moonman

Member
Man, I know I said essentially the same thing in the last thread about digital sales being higher than previously thought, but people railed so hard against halo 5 for having lower sales numbers. Said it couldn't possibly have over 25% digital sales or at most 30%. The thing is though it was completely illogical to think that more people were not going digital given how far the internet and mobile data has come. Downloading and streaming movies, music, and books have become the norm. And I think the driving force for digital game sales, outside of covenience, is that games no longer run from the disc regardless. You buy physical and still have to install the dang game to a console's HD. But the flip side, obviosuly, is still being able to let friends and family borrow your physical copies, and the major perk of being able to trade in. I think we'll see changes in the future with digital that allow sharing at least in some limited capacity. Something akin to what MS was going to do with their DRM fiasco, only without the DRM.
 
Y

Yjynx

Member
I've been telling this before that the game industry growth would come from digital transaction. I believe Sony do share some of the digital data. They just not allowing NPD to disclose them.
 
L

leeh

Member
Wiped89 said:
For all those saying it's an understandable discrepancy, SEVEN BILLION is quite a big number to be out by...

I have mixed feelings though. It's good that gaming is stronger than we thought. I'm sad so many people are digital when discs are still cheaper and better IMO (in the UK at least).
Click to expand...
Do the home console trick, makes life so much better. Brand new game for like 22 quid each, if both you and your mate want it that is. Even if not, you piggyback off all his games anyway.

That's how I ended up with an insanely large library which I can't fit onto 6TB and will never ever get through.
hanspampel said:
so did / still do many here on gaf
the "9 out of my 10 friends bought the game digital" is real ;)
Click to expand...
9 out of 10 of my mates who bought Halo 5 did it digitally pal, that was always real ;) What was also real is those same guys never played it again after 3 weeks.
 
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