False. New games are 20% cheaper at Amazon and Best Buy if you have Prime/GCU.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD has been underestimating Digital Game Sales since at least 2010
- Thread starter Obliterator
- Start date
- Sales-Age
False. New games are 20% cheaper at Amazon and Best Buy if you have Prime/GCU.
Gaiaknight
Member
Ok, and for those that dont they are the same price.
For units on physical software, yes, things above 30-35% even today would be rather generous. People would often guess 50%+, which we've only ever seen once (For Honor), or maybe twice if we include Madden's LTD and assume EA's statement meant units sand not revenue on the super microtransactions bundle versions.
That said, the rate on that has been increasing 5% (in percentage points) every six months, so 40% may not be impossible soon, but if we go back two years, it would have been insanely overboard.
For mobile, season pass, DLC, and microtransaction revenue, no, and that's what's driving a lot of the change here.
Since I assume you mean Xbox games in particular, I would make statements like overestimating Halo 5's digital unit sales, but plausibly notably underestimating how much they make on microtransactions, which could be *a lot* of money.
For reference, Call of Duty: Black Ops 3 made more money on microtransactions than it did on season passes and standalone DLC sales despite Black Ops 3 having series best sales for both of the latter categories. Ultimate Team for EA Sports is also now north of $800 million a year.
This is also why MAU is actually a very relevant number. Ongoing monetization can matter more than unit sales for some games.
hanspampel
Banned
Some parts of Europe have, others not.
But for a variety of reasons us still has a higher digital penetration
Pricing and retail presence is a big factor.
In the us, both are the same MSRP at launch.
In the EU, retail is often 15 or even 25 Euro cheaper.
Cultural difference. The us is also a bigger app market. Bigger on digital music, streaming tv and shows. I don't know why, but the us adopts those new technologys way faster.
I talk about console digital here.
Pc and mobile digital penetration is high everywhere on the planet. Especially in Asia, too.
But Asia as example is not a huge console gaming market. So by % they could be higher. I don't know
But NA is above Europe above Latin America and way above Japan.
Its a good example of support and messaging to consumers. Im 100% digital, but Nintendos awful practices (games tied to system not account) and poorly implemented account system is why I'm reluctant to go digital with them, like Jeff Gertsman i do not trust them and they have given many reasons to make me believe that. MS have the best template on how to allow game sharing and account system, thier handling of older games (BC) benefitted from this so i have no concerns spending a little extra knowing my xbox library will follow me from now on.
1st Course
Member
Isn't this what people have been saying for years now? Good to know that the industry is doing well and still growing.
Indeed.
I likely would have gone all digital on Switch for the first time in my console history simply because of the convenience of having lots of games on the system for when I take it with me somewhere, but the severly limited storage space made me choose physical for bigger games again just like on Wii U. I'll now limit digital purchases to indie and eventual VC games again. (And no Nintendo, lugging an external HD with me to solve this is not really convenient either imo.)
Considering Nitnedo rarely has digital sales, the ones they do have aren't that great and the Switch only has 26GB on on board memory basically requiring an extra purchase if you want to go digital I really doubt it.
I thought about going all digital with my Switch briefly but given those factors and the 20% off preorders I get from Amazon I quickly decided to mostly go physical.
Not to dismiss your point, just wanted to check you already knew about sd cards. I have a 200Gb one that was pretty cheap. So 220gb storage isn't too bad. I'll either upgrade to something bigger when the prices come down, or have two sd cards. Anyway you probably knee, just wanted to check.
And a lot of people went on denying that, even famous ones, including "known" developers. With Xbox 360, it really became easy and feasible, at least in my opinion, and I started buying mostly digital from the beginning when I bought the console.
Nowadays games already rely a lot on internet, just look at how massive patches are already and how many games have several of them, including sometimes game fixing day one patches. You just can't avoid it anymore. You only have to make sure you only buy games when they are discounted as the digital prices are way too high at release.
Yeah, I'm waiting for the bigger ones to drop in price a bit more but sure, that is a good middle of the road solution indeed and an option that deserves to be pointed out. I might change my stance on digital purchases of bigger games later in the Switch's lifespan as a result.
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
Given nearly every game out there needs an internet connection anyway, I'm not sure giving consumers the opportunity to pay disc prices for digital copies of games while also giving them both a disc AND digital copy is what I personally consider anti-consumer.
Yeah, they initially wanted a once per 24 hour session (because people have those?) net check, but again, aren't like 95% or more of consoles connected to the internet anyway? I mean, with time, I'm sure they would have sorted all the nitty gritty stuff out and we would have ended up with something really cool.
But alas, we'll never know I guess.
People who don't visit digital stores might wonder why digital prices are so high. PSN sales have been crazy this year, Steam I don't visit as often but they've been practically giving away games for ages (especially when you consider stuff like humble bundles).
This year I've played Witcher 3 GOTY edition (£18, 150 hours), Drawn to Death (£0, 30 hours), Let It Die (ok this is F2P, but £0 so far, currently addicted), The Fall + Grow Up (£7 BOGOF), plus too many free titles on PS+ to list. I spend a frankly unhealthy amount of time gaming, and this year I've only spent £25 plus whatever my PS+ subscription costs these days. I couldn't have managed anywhere near that figure in the pre-digital days, even relying solely on second hand games.
And if you want the latest AAA at release it'll cost an arm and a leg wherever you buy it.
Sorry for the off topic.
I understand that's it's not NPD's "fault"*, but damn that seems like a significant undervaluing of digital sales. Would this mean that publisher's market value has been undervalued also? Would this mean anything for e.g. Ubisoft who (as I understand) are currently at some threat from being bought out?
*well... I kind of understand. But on the other hand they are paid to provide sales figures, and those figures have been off by a significant amount. I wonder if this does/should do anything to their reputation?
Bioshocker
Member
And their stores have more or less turned into toy shops. They're adjusting as best they can.
Stores should have embraced the digital era instead of fighting it. I'm sure they could have made some good deals with publishers to allow them sell digital games at competitive prices.
3 things have helped push me toward digital:
Faster internet. Fast enough that downloading 50gigs of game on internet which isn't eyegougingly priced,and playing it the same day, is realistic.
Storage is a lot cheaper. You can get a 2tb compact drive, for like $90 everyday. (for PC players, full size drives have been about that cheap, since 2010). And consoles come with sufficient space now anyway. So, unless you are a heavy player going through all the games, you can get by on 500gb or whatever. So you wouldn't even need to spend that extra $90, like you had to on PS3 and 360, if you really wanted to go all-in on digital.
I have moved several times. Carting around all those DVDs, blu-rays, and various games, and a way to access/display them: was a burden. Eventually, you aren't in your bedroom at your parents antmymore. Where stuff has been in the same place for X years.
I think the last new release I bought physical on a console, was Dark Souls 1. And Battlefield 3 on PC. Because I thought I could avoid most of the downloading. But that game pretty much replaces the entire base install, after some of the patching.
Something about digital games, however: No quality compromise.
For movies and TV shows im gonna own, its Blu-ray for me. Because you can't buy the same quality with a digital download.
Faster internet. Fast enough that downloading 50gigs of game on internet which isn't eyegougingly priced,and playing it the same day, is realistic.
Storage is a lot cheaper. You can get a 2tb compact drive, for like $90 everyday. (for PC players, full size drives have been about that cheap, since 2010). And consoles come with sufficient space now anyway. So, unless you are a heavy player going through all the games, you can get by on 500gb or whatever. So you wouldn't even need to spend that extra $90, like you had to on PS3 and 360, if you really wanted to go all-in on digital.
I have moved several times. Carting around all those DVDs, blu-rays, and various games, and a way to access/display them: was a burden. Eventually, you aren't in your bedroom at your parents antmymore. Where stuff has been in the same place for X years.
I think the last new release I bought physical on a console, was Dark Souls 1. And Battlefield 3 on PC. Because I thought I could avoid most of the downloading. But that game pretty much replaces the entire base install, after some of the patching.
Something about digital games, however: No quality compromise.
For movies and TV shows im gonna own, its Blu-ray for me. Because you can't buy the same quality with a digital download.
whalleywhat
Member
way to go, everybody!
Sure, but there's no legitimate reason for it be like this, apart from the demands of dying retailers, and plain greed.
Yeap. They really should get the cards for digital games with codes on. I really want this to be the norm.
Do you really need a physical storefront for this though? If GS, Target, BB or any big box store had these cards consumers would just buy the digital code from their online stores and have it emailed to them in a matter of minutes. This brings up the question about what do games mean to physical retailers? One could argue that BB sees games as a vehicle to attract more foot traffic to its stores. They are not in it for the profit from games per se but rather access to customers who can be sold other high margin products.
MatPiscatella
Member
Hi.
So, let me provide some much needed context in regards to this thread.
My name's Mat. I, along with my colleague Sam Naji, led revising the methodology and the creation of the restated numbers under consideration.
An overwhelming majority of the restatement... the bulk of it, has nothing to do with Console/Portable.
The majority of the restatement was an increase in Mobile, along with an increase in PC MTX, PC DLC and PC full game sales. There was a small increase in Console DLC/MTX, but it wasn't a significant portion of the total restatement.
Now, to my second point.
Stop thinking sales of games on Console between Packaged and Digital is a zero sum game.
The share of Digital on Console is increasing, yes. But that doesn't mean these sales come entirely at the expense of Packaged. In fact, the data strongly suggest to me that digital is more incremental than cannibalistic. Digital offers convenience of purchase and high/low pricing that incentivizes impulse buying. One Digital sale does not mean one less Packaged sale.
A number of franchises set all time sales records for physical sales last year, Pokemon and Final Fantasy to name two.
Anyways, this restatement was primarily done to better reflect Mobile and what's happening on PC.
Thanks.
So, let me provide some much needed context in regards to this thread.
My name's Mat. I, along with my colleague Sam Naji, led revising the methodology and the creation of the restated numbers under consideration.
An overwhelming majority of the restatement... the bulk of it, has nothing to do with Console/Portable.
The majority of the restatement was an increase in Mobile, along with an increase in PC MTX, PC DLC and PC full game sales. There was a small increase in Console DLC/MTX, but it wasn't a significant portion of the total restatement.
Now, to my second point.
Stop thinking sales of games on Console between Packaged and Digital is a zero sum game.
The share of Digital on Console is increasing, yes. But that doesn't mean these sales come entirely at the expense of Packaged. In fact, the data strongly suggest to me that digital is more incremental than cannibalistic. Digital offers convenience of purchase and high/low pricing that incentivizes impulse buying. One Digital sale does not mean one less Packaged sale.
A number of franchises set all time sales records for physical sales last year, Pokemon and Final Fantasy to name two.
Anyways, this restatement was primarily done to better reflect Mobile and what's happening on PC.
Thanks.
Thank you for the insight. The big debate on this forum was digital for consoles so this helps.
leeh, not yet, lol.
aaronwt
Member
I would still rather pay more for a digital version than use a physical version. This gen I have only bought digital. The only time a game disc touched my XBOnes or PS4s was from a rental. Since 2013 I have been all digital for games and I don't see myself ever buying a game disc again.
Of course with UHD BDs it's just the opposite. I have purchased around 100 UHD BD titles since the format launched in February 2016. I have not bought so many movie discs since between 2006 and 2008 when I bought hundreds of HD DVDs and BDs.
As an analyst, I have nothing but sympathy for them. With that volume of data, it's impossible not to make a mistake at some point.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Thanks for this clarification.
Minsc
Gold Member
I dunno, 26GB is enough for ~1,000 VC games or more. And a lot of the eShop games for the Switch now are 100-200MB or less (tons of Neo Geo games on the shop, I wouldn't be surprised if the average game size was under 1GB).
It's really not that limited at all, mainly just Nintendo not putting their best foot forward (or any foot at all really).
I think the point was its not enough for those wanting to go all digital, or even 'significantly' digital. Which is true, but yeah SD cards.
Jeronimo Jones
Member
I'm not very surprised. I think the convenience of being able to download whatever you want to play is one factor that has been underestimated.
These days, there's a huge audience of people who love music, love movies or TV, and choose to stream rather than buying discs or downloading. Games are another medium that has potential for more growth because customers can make impulse purchases from the comfort of home.
These days, there's a huge audience of people who love music, love movies or TV, and choose to stream rather than buying discs or downloading. Games are another medium that has potential for more growth because customers can make impulse purchases from the comfort of home.
MatPiscatella
Member
You. I like you.
All one can hope to do is improve. You get better/cleaner data, you refine assumptions, you build better models, you apply some more experienced thinking and you get to a better number.
Unfortunately this was a big adjustment. But it was better doing the adjustment and making it right than to try to continue with a status quo set of assumptions that helped save face but were ultimately wrong.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Glad you guys did this.
Don't base arguments on false premises.
Melchiah
Member
The way it's now is better, no question about it. I'd hate to be unable to play games when the network is down, on my end or theirs. Especially, when most of the games I play don't need to have an internet connection. I'd actually like to know what all of these single player games are, that supposedly need one.
Yea I had to think for a min. Ok, day one patches....but has any game been rendered unplayable for not doing it? I cant remember right now.
Then the consoles themselves... PS4 handled updates, patches better then XBO in the beginning, I think they are both similar now.