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mango drank · Dec 13, 2017

I was gonna say, the points about art direction making current games stand the test of time longer are good.

But I'm really replying to say I just realized I'd completely forgotten about a new factor, something that might take videogame graphics and overall development into bizarre, unexpected directions: the evolution of machine learning / deep learning / artificial intelligence.

This stuff is already being used to do weird creative generative shit. As it evolves over the next decade+, what kind of role do you guys think it'll play in the development of games and graphics?

Shifty · Dec 13, 2017

brohmbel said:
I was gonna say, the points about art direction making current games stand the test of time longer are good.

But I'm really replying to say I just realized I'd completely forgotten about a new factor, something that might take videogame graphics and overall development into bizarre, unexpected directions: the evolution of machine learning / deep learning / artificial intelligence.

This stuff is already being used to do weird creative generative shit. As it evolves over the next decade+, what kind of role do you guys think it'll play in the development of games and graphics?

It'll be both fascinating and deeply unsettling to play through a game whose technical art I have no chance of reverse-engineering in my head.

llien · Dec 13, 2017

Horizon comes to mind:

GPU-based procedural placement in Horizon Zero Dawn (neogaf)

Not sure if deep learning is at play.

TLZ · Dec 13, 2017

Heath V said:
Great question and great thread, this is what we need more of right here! To answer your question I don't think current gen games will look all that antiquated, I think we are at a point now where games are looking pretty darn good. It's certainly only going to get better from here on out, there are some seriously exciting times ahead!

That's exactly what I said about PS2 games back then. And 2 gens from now this gen will look outdated as well.

Shifty · Dec 13, 2017

llien said:
Not sure if deep learning is at play.

Most likely not, being able to paint foliage onto a terrain is nothing crazy or new for 3D game engines.

The actual procedural density map generation and interpretation is a very cool, novel idea though.

Szajna · Dec 13, 2017

brohmbel said:
[*]Better writing

Yeah if only..actually much more important and meaningfull than graphics for me.

Apparition · Dec 13, 2017

Inuteu said:
I expect games to be totally photorealistic two generations from now

and a lot of improvement in phisics too

Two things that never were done right in video games:

1- hair

2- swords that actually cut

hope to see that happening

Sweeney: 40 TFLOPS Can Render Photo-Realistic Dynamic Scenes, But Humans Require More Than Computing Power

Burn0ut · Dec 13, 2017

FFX is not outdated
And its a turn based rpg and really fast in battles and XV is an action rpg so they are really different by nature
I dont think many FF fans will consider XV better than X

Jrpgs have this problem of becoming outdated much less than other genres because they dont rely on technology much

The suikodens and lunars and breath of fires erc are still great and better than most new jrpgs that are 20 years newer

Cramoss · Dec 13, 2017

Yes, lightning has a long way to go still.

Martinski43 · Dec 13, 2017

Shoklot Caek said:
Great thread! Can't say much about the technical stuff, but...

...I highly doubt that.

Yeah Ai in particular has taken a backseat in most AAA games. Has taken a turn for the worst, there are many PS2 and og Xbox titles that has better Ai than for example Horizon (human npc) , Battlefront 2, Rotr and such..

Ecto311 · Dec 13, 2017

Not based on any specific games but I am 35yrs old. I have seen this whole thing change so much and I know the op says not to include vr but how can you not. Between Windows mixed reality, Oculus, ar on phones, and stuff we have yet to see gaming is going to get insane and this current gen will seem like Atari very quickly I think.

How can it not? Gfx cards and tech is moving so fast. I doubt most gamers will be flat screen 2d gamers in 2 gens from now. Shit the Oculus with touch is $350 now and the requirements to run it are pretty low compared to what they were at the start. That said I just got an Oculus 3 months ago and am still blown away by the experience. It feels like the jump from Mario flat to Mario 64 to me.

And mixed reality has so many applications it is no doubt going to be apart of what we consider gaming in 2 generations. Mixed reality is going to be everywhere similar to the iPad very soon. Look at Pokemon go. That game was huge and a poor representation of that tech in the grand scheme of things.

For strictly 2d games I think between face tech lighting and resolution in games now, even in 2d will seem janky and "old" in 2 generations. It wasn't that long ago I considered doom on PC to be the best thing out. Now looking back you couldn't even shoot up and the enemies were flat sprites. Then I thought Halo was incredible. Then 2016 doom and horizon zero Dawn look way better and play better. Shit even controller tech and 4k hdr are going to generate huge shifts in what we currently know.

Nosgotham · Dec 13, 2017

Of course they will.

Frenzy-kun · Dec 13, 2017

It will depend very likely of the artistic side. Games that rely on an artistic view that can be handled with current computing power will work well because those games had been though to be looking great under those constrains.

On the other hand, games that rely on photorealism will surely look bad, because there are no games that can achieve that an even if they could, on bigger resolutions all the approximations will become more obvious.

EdgeXL · Dec 13, 2017

JordanN said:
Realistic games doesn't mean they have no style at all or complete photorealism.

How many games have you die once and the game is completely over? Or how about characters that that can take multiple bullets but heal in seconds?

It's not futile when graphics is just one part of the package.

You missed the point. Go back and read my post and you'll see I was talking about "realistic" graphics. I did not make any statements about realistic gameplay mechanics.

And my point stands - the games that push for the most "realistic" graphics that are possible at that time end up with visuals that become outdated more quickly.

Testicular Sound Express · Dec 13, 2017

abracadaver said:
Textures are already so sharp and characters so detailed that I don't think there will be much of an upgrade

Lighting, animation, physics, AI and details like particles will be way better though (I hope)

people literally said this last gen haha. With animated movies like Moana, theres still plenty to look forward to with video game visuals imo

Fbh · Dec 13, 2017

They'll look dated sure but I doubt it's going to be like looking back at PS1 (or even PS2) games right now.

Games with more stylysed art styles will obviously age better too. Wind Waker still looks great IMO and I think it will look great in 2030 too

Unity2012 · Dec 13, 2017

Great topic; excellent thread.

I think we've seen enough clarity and technical improvements to hold up well a couple generations from now. The games of today will probably look ok but feel short of resources and performance.

Instead of software and hardware improvements, I think Art direction--quality, interesting stories, new gameplay dynamics and world designs are going to really show the limits of what developers can do to improve the industry in the future.

An example can be seen today in the quality of worlds/characters in games like "the last of us", "Tomb Raider" , "Horizon ZD," or "Halo 5," vs the ones on "Fallout 4," or "Mass Effect Andromeda." Some of those games look years ahead from the others in spite of being in the same generational frame.

johannesbergcrantz · Dec 13, 2017

Diminishing returns, but yes. Good art-direction vs bad art-direction and artistic ability is still where its at though and this will never change.

Unknown? · Dec 13, 2017

TikeMyson said:
When I first played Gran Turismo in 1997 I thought "Ok, this looks like real-life. Racing games can't look any better than this".
And when Resident Evil 2 was released I thought "Someday when games look like this cutscenes we have reached the peak of gaming"

I was the same except for CGI in Final Fantasy! I thought once games hit that wed be at the peak. Now In game graphics put that CGI to shame.

KeepersDome · Dec 13, 2017

So many times over the years I remember saying... wow... games will never look better than this... I remember saying that very distinctly while first playing Super Mario 64.

Now though even going back to playing early PS3/XB360 games they start to look really bad now. I have now doubt in a generation or two when we go back to play some of the PS4/XBox1 games we have now that they will look quite dated too.

magnumpy · Dec 13, 2017

technologically there is still room for improvement with any platform. so nintendo, sony, pc, xbox, all current platforms will continue to see advancements for ~10 years (a decade roughly). beyond that point, you're looking at materials for transistors changing (silicon->carbon nanotubes?). but there is an absolute limit to technology, unless someone comes up with a way to make things smaller than 1 atom. maybe half of an atom? ._.

Azelover · Dec 14, 2017

As many have stated, depends on the art style.

If it's cartoony, goofy or unrealistic, probably not.

If it is aiming to be ultra-realistic, I'm thinking TLOU and Uncharted, definitely. It's gonna look like a bad joke even. Totally akward and largely unplayable.

Ashes · Dec 14, 2017

I'd really sad if ai doesn't have a fundamental shift. I mean you get good chatbots online these days. Plus with deepmind's self learning algorithms and the like, it should see a tectonic shift in the air space.

Wulfram · Dec 14, 2017

Unity2012 said:
An example can be seen today in the quality of worlds/characters in games like "the last of us", "Tomb Raider" , "Horizon ZD," or "Halo 5," vs the ones on "Fallout 4," or "Mass Effect Andromeda." Some of those games look years ahead from the others in spite of being in the same generational frame.

Fallout and Mass Effect are both large open world RPGs with crazy amounts of dialogue and character creation, the comparison isn't really fair without taking that into account.

bufkus · Dec 14, 2017

I think we've reached diminishing returns and I don't expect any major leaps. It's ridiculous to think that games will get "better writing/art direction" because those don't improve over time. the talent for that is static.

There's a reason VR started popping up. Innovators want to try something new. Eventually this is going to lead us to Holodeck-style experiences.

mikezilla2 · Dec 14, 2017

TLZ said:
That's exactly what I said about PS2 games back then. And 2 gens from now this gen will look outdated as well.

What about Gameplay ?

O.v.e.rlord · Dec 14, 2017

I never quite understood the need to compare grafics. Its all about art design.

Velius · Dec 14, 2017

It depends.

Something like Mortal Kombat was seen as breathtaking back in the day because it was admittedly technologically outstanding... at the time.
Look at it now.

Whereas something like... Seiken Densetsu 3 (Secret of Mana 2), always looks beautiful, and always will.

Good artistic style transcends eras. Things that look good now may not look good later, for a variety of reasons. But just like good China (as opposed to bad China, because there are "modern" sets that will be hideous in a few years), good artistic design will always be good.

I maintain that Metroid Prime 2 will stand the test of time- it already looks better than pretty much everything on 360/PS3/Wii and we're only a generation removed from those.

robo2000 · Dec 14, 2017

Im pretty sure that a 30fps game isn't playable anymore in 2030. If you play a game like for example Golden eye n64 you can really see that the framerate is a huge problem. (4 player multi-player is horrible) but back in those days nobody would even mention it (maybe some pc guys).

30 fps is okayish for now but horrible in a couple of years.

So graphics wise some games would still look good (or okay) but I think framerate is a big issue. Games like the Witcher 3 on ps4 isnt playable in 2030.

Maybe even 60 fps is horrible by then.

fordian · Dec 14, 2017

robo2000 said:
Im pretty sure that a 30fps game isn't playable anymore in 2030. If you play a game like for example Golden eye n64 you can really see that the framerate is a huge problem. (4 player multi-player is horrible) but back in those days nobody would even mention it (maybe some pc guys).

30 fps is okayish for now but horrible in a couple of years.

So graphics wise some games would still look good (or okay) but I think framerate is a big issue. Games like the Witcher 3 on ps4 isnt playable in 2030.

Maybe even 60 fps is horrible by then.

I'd bet money that 30fps will still be the average console framerate in 2030.

dragos495 · Dec 14, 2017

logic says that ofcourse we'll look back at horizon, driveclub etc and say that they look outdated.

in 10 years every open world game will look better in every way that horizon and a racing game will look better in every way than driveclub/fm/gt sport.

i would love to see advancements in water, hair physics, actual round edges everywhere, real life draw distances.

TedNindo · Dec 14, 2017

It depends on the game imo. Some PS2 and GameCube games still look great and are perfectly playable still.

SaberEdge · Dec 14, 2017

M1nion said:
I never quite understood the need to compare grafics. Its all about art design.

It's not all about art design. It doesn't matter how good the art direction is, the games from two generations ago look worse than current games basically across the board. Graphics technology matters.

Lorul2 · Dec 14, 2017

Ninja Gaiden Black on the Xbox X is as good as any non AAA game this gen. Now AAA Microsoft games are using Dynamic Scaling, when the new Xbox with more power comes out today's games will be even better.

brohmbel said:
In other words, circa 2030, will AAA games from the middle of this gen (2017-2018) seem badly-aged, quaint, outdated, etc, when compared to circa-2030 PS6/XB5 AAA games?

I ask, because I dug out my PS2 today and poked around some of the AAA games from 2003-2004. And, well, damn. From a technical perspective, these games haven't aged well at all. I'd gotten so spoiled by the steady incremental advancements over the two console generations succeeding the PS2/XBOX era, that seeing and playing these old games came as a shock: primitive low-res graphics, low-res textures, primitive gameplay mechanics, primitive animations, primitive game and menu UIs, etc.

At the dawn of the PS3/X360 era, people were already trotting out the "diminishing returns" line--that they couldn't see a huge difference between the games for the then-newly-available PS3 and X360, vs. the games for the previous gen. The same thing happened when the PS4 and XBONE were introduced. Of course, with the benefit of hindsight, when comparing the AAA state-of-the-art here in 2017 vs. AAA state-of-the-art in the middle of the PS2/XBOX era, the "diminishing returns" line is preposterous. Over the course of two console generations, we've seen absolutely enormous gains:

** I got the point **

O.v.e.rlord · Dec 14, 2017

SaberEdge said:
It's not all about art design. It doesn't matter how good the art direction is, the games from two generations ago look worse than current games basically across the board. Graphics technology matters.

Kid Icarus Uprising looks great, And plays great and thats not because I have all the gpus on the planet to render the game. And still holds up even with todays standards . So no games do not become antiquated because of graphics.

(Edit) : meant graphics

And I bet a number of people here can cite games that are old and still look amazing.

Fuck xenoblade as anther example.

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