SinCityAssassin
Member
On a console, yeah.
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On a console, yeah.
Breaking news
We also had a comment (from MC I think?) at DQXI launch that with digital sales it was on par with DQVIII FW, which meant that there were ~150k digital between the two SKU FW.
Skullwaker
Member
If I recall correctly, none of the handheld titles did either. I believe Phantom Hourglass was close with a little over 900k.
This is. Splatoon owns Japan sales thread.
whyamihere
Banned
I still can't believe Breath of the Wild is going to hit a million in Japan alone. What a fantastic way to reinvigorate the franchise on a console*. Surpassing Wind Waker and Majora would be phenomenal, but hitting a million and getting over Link to the Past** would be amazing.
*I know the Switch is a hybrid.
**Yeah I know LLTP is 1.15 million and it'll take a little longer to get there if/when it does.
*I know the Switch is a hybrid.
**Yeah I know LLTP is 1.15 million and it'll take a little longer to get there if/when it does.
Skullwaker
Member
It actually already outsold Majora's Mask (~600k) and Wind Waker (~740k). The next title to beat is Phantom Hourglass with ~900k.
That's pretty crazy.
It's a standard ingredient
.James Scott
Banned
Glad Zelda is doing fairly well in Japan. Would've liked to see a bigger bump but seems like it's held on well.
Zelda feels like it would be perfect for some collaborative DLC.
Kind of like MH with Zelda, AC, and DMC collaborations. Could just be Gear and work well enough.
Zelda feels like it would be perfect for some collaborative DLC.
Kind of like MH with Zelda, AC, and DMC collaborations. Could just be Gear and work well enough.
It's a standard ingredient
(Not directed at you.)
Dragon Quest XI on PS4 outsold the 3DS version because of digital sales which I don't know of but confirmed by Square Enix reps are lower than expected of a western release and that I needed to add sales of the game release in other countries of Asia to make it look fair that the PS4 version outsold the 3DS game which is only available in Japan.
/s
AdventureRacing
Member
Pretty good sales all around yet again. It's nice seeing good numbers across HW and SW for a few weeks.
Expecting another few big weeks for the switch. I'm curious what will happen with stock after that. It seems like for splatoon 2 Nintendo allocated a lot of the WW stock for Japan. I'm assuming that it's unlikely to see such a high percentage for the rest of the year so I'm not sure how that will play out. Hopefully stock remains high and we see some big numbers.
The PS4 and 3DS continue to perform really well HW wise. DQXI still performing beyond expectations on the PS4. Sales on 3DS aren't bad but just below what might have been expected. Between the 2 versions and the possible switch version it should end up one of the better selling DQ games.
Expecting another few big weeks for the switch. I'm curious what will happen with stock after that. It seems like for splatoon 2 Nintendo allocated a lot of the WW stock for Japan. I'm assuming that it's unlikely to see such a high percentage for the rest of the year so I'm not sure how that will play out. Hopefully stock remains high and we see some big numbers.
The PS4 and 3DS continue to perform really well HW wise. DQXI still performing beyond expectations on the PS4. Sales on 3DS aren't bad but just below what might have been expected. Between the 2 versions and the possible switch version it should end up one of the better selling DQ games.
I expect DQXI (3DS/PS4) to end up lower than DQ XI, DQVII, DQIII and likely DQVIII.
I'm thinking about 3.2M-3.5M combined without budget re-release.
To me it's clear SquareEnix was aiming for doubledippers when they thought to release two quite different version of the same game.
If indeed a consistent number of buyers got both versions that would mean that the fall of the the number of consumers that bought DQXI is even greater from past games.
EDIT:
Of course at the above reasoning one should add the DL units (something that past DQ didn't have).
There shouldn't be that much double dippers but them existing is probably the very reason DQXI sales are still comparable somehow to the previous entries.
The idea of DQXI switch including both a version similar to the PS4 and the 2D version of the 3DS is not bad, it gives incentives to both buyers of the PS4 and 3DS version to double dip with the Switch SKU.
Later on they might even rerelease the 2D games as a digital standalone on any platform they want.
~4M retail is still the ballpark DQXI should end up with the 3 SKU released
The idea of DQXI switch including both a version similar to the PS4 and the 2D version of the 3DS is not bad, it gives incentives to both buyers of the PS4 and 3DS version to double dip with the Switch SKU.
Later on they might even rerelease the 2D games as a digital standalone on any platform they want.
~4M retail is still the ballpark DQXI should end up with the 3 SKU released
I'm aware of how much the 3DS sold in December.
Switch thus far has kept the pace with the 3DS and will be close launch aligned despite 3DS receiving a huge price cut leading to 300K sales in it's week 25 and 26. With Obon being next week we are unlikely to see 3DS overtake Switch, MHXX's limited bundles could also help the Switch keep in front in the week after that.
On average in the 7 weeks following this jump 3DS averaged 57K sales per week, so even if the Switch baseline drops to >50K after Obon and MHXX launch - it would still keep it's self fairly close until the fall. I expect Switch to be close or surpass to 2 million by early October.
October is the beginning of the fall I expect that due to SMO launching and Nintendo saying that ramp up in production is scheduled for the fall for us to see an average close to 100K per week from beginning of October until the end of November. Roughly 600-900K sales in those two months based on the expectation that the average will be high because their biggest fall title is launching is coming at the end of October rather than late November early December.
Regarding December I've said I expect Nintendo to ship at least 1 million for Japan.
Hence when you add up all these numbers you'd be mighty close to 4 million without even needing to match 3DS's crazy December numbers.
Zelda needs on average 15K until the end of the year. The current rate of adoption of the Switch is not really even remotely it's peak for the year. I outlined the attachment rate needed for Zelda to reach 1 million and it's below 15% - which is frankly not asking very much from potential buyers. Zelda doesn't need heavy bundling to achieve 10% attachment rate for the rest of the year. Which will bring it extremely close to 1 million.
Bundling would push it well beyond the 300K target, much like MK8 on the Wii U was pushed due to bundles after Splatoon launch and SMM was pushed due to bundles after MK8 bundle was disconnected. For example if Nintendo decides to make Zelda Bundles in December for Zelda's DLC launch it could very well have a week that surpasses the prior 4 months cumulative sales.
Jarod McChicken
Member
The only thing we "learn" here is the digital ratio in Japan is below what is observed in the west (to give people reference, digital ratio was 33% for the last 12 months for EA games on PS4 and Xbox One). Where is the news here ? In that article, Matsuda refuses once again to share what is that digital ratio, so it's exactly what I'm saying : no one has a real clue about how many games are being downloaded from Japan because publishers never ever gave a hint.
Always thought Switch would be a success in Japan sooner or later...though its happening faster than expected. Later in 2018 we will already be at a point where the install base will be comparable to the PS4 userbase and im interested to see how multiplattform games will perform on both systems.
test_account
XP-39C²
Thats probably a part of it, but its not only that. The huge difference in hardware power ment that they had to make a different version. Horii also said he was worried that people might feel that the 3DS was an inferior version, thats why they added the 2D mode.
If multiplat games come out the same time I think sales will be on par or better than the PS4 version. Releasing it later will not boost sales
Lttp!
Good switch hw numbers even if it is always hard to judge its performances due to the supply/demand ratio
Of course here are strong sales
Great sw boost too for many titles
Good hold for 3ds and ps4 even if Dq drops slightly more than I expected
I am very surprised at how 3ds and switch have Benn able to hold hw wise alongside one to each other
Good switch hw numbers even if it is always hard to judge its performances due to the supply/demand ratio
Of course here are strong sales
Great sw boost too for many titles
Good hold for 3ds and ps4 even if Dq drops slightly more than I expected
I am very surprised at how 3ds and switch have Benn able to hold hw wise alongside one to each other
We kinda have with famitsu digital estimates.
They are what they are, estimates, but they're giving a rough idea which is better than nothing.
Regarding what to expect for DQXI digital number on PS4
From last year - Famitsu digital estimates(digital = % of retail)
Dec 16 : Final Fantasy XV => 10.28%
Jan 17 : Kingdom Hearts II.8 => 9.88%
Jan 17 : Valkyria Azure => 13.97%
Feb 17 : Nier Automata => 20.89%
Feb 17 : Super Robot Taisen V => 18.8%
Feb 17 : Neptune => 14.36%
Mar 17 : Kingdom Hearts HD 1.5 + 2.5 => 8.62%
FFXV digital estimates were for a whole month (December) which probably lowered the digital ratio while DQXI will only have first week numbers for July, I tend to think DQ fanbase might be less akin to go digital than the FF fanbase (trying to appeal to an older audience less used to digital) but I might be wrong.
Overall I don't see any reason of why it wouldn't fall too far of the usual ratio of digital sales = 10-15% retail sales, which would give for July the expected 100k number we already talked about at launch
Mr. Pointy
Member
If the legs on DQXI are similar to those of DQIX, you're probably looking at ~2.5m for the 3DS game and ~2m for the PS4 game.
I don't see how with lower fw sales and bigger drop in both 2nd and 3rd week it could end up selling more than DQIX + DQIX budget rerelease.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Zelda will crash and burn next week. Good morning, wake up everybody.
Dengeki data is out, for those interested:
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/576/1576726/
They have The Snack World at 85k, with 55% sell-through (so about 160k units shipped?). They note that it's better than Inazuma Eleven (38k) and Yo-kai Watch (54k), but worse than Little Battlers (at launch, obviously). However, they also point out that anime has already started so upcoming weeks/months will tell us what to expect from it.
Well, second week has part of Obon week, so 3rd week is when things will get interesting.
http://dengekionline.com/elem/000/001/576/1576726/
They have The Snack World at 85k, with 55% sell-through (so about 160k units shipped?). They note that it's better than Inazuma Eleven (38k) and Yo-kai Watch (54k), but worse than Little Battlers (at launch, obviously). However, they also point out that anime has already started so upcoming weeks/months will tell us what to expect from it.
Well, second week has part of Obon week, so 3rd week is when things will get interesting.
We are not getting these numbers. Substract 500k from both and you'll be closer. Sales will collapse after Obon.
Yep, 2 million for 3DS and 1.5 million for the PS4 version. I think that the budget re-releases also do great numbers right? (at least that's what I remember from some DS titles).
We have the huge digital sales of PS4 version version missing though. 20% isn't the standard?
Media Create and Dengeki estimated digital of both 3DS and PS4 at ~150k but some continue to live their dream. Famitsu digital estimates won't be very far from that number.
I mean it is one of the top 10 (?) best-selling games on PS4 in Japan, sandwiched somewhere between Dragon Quest Heroes and Dark Souls 3 in sales, at least before it fell off of Media Create. If this number is accurate it could be up near top 5 now.
Interestingly, Final Fantasy XV is at #16 (LTD 990k) on Dengeki's tracker when it isn't on Famitsu or MC at all this week. Famitsu had it at 995k two weeks ago, so it's gotta break a million retail sales at some point soon.
Don't be mean ;D Maybe DQXI got that digital percentage on PS4 but I'm pretty doubtful. Anyway, counting digital will make the target easier, I was only counting physical when I said that both could reach 2m and 1.5m.
Famitsu digital estimates are trash and you know it
Interesting. If the legs hold up, then Snackworld won't be a bust after all.
I'm prepped to eat crow
Why next week specifically?
I must have missed BotW's digital numbers, did we ever get them?
where's BotW right now, saleswise?
Famitsu releases digital sales monthly, not sure where they are located but Chris usually posts them in the these threads.
About 700k, Switch + Wii U retail combined.
Polygonal_Sprite
Member
Didn't the Wii U even manage to sell 2-2.5 million hardware for November + December in Japan for 2013 and 2014?
Polygonal_Sprite
Member
What did it hit for those two months combined in it's best two years?
Every combined November/December for the Wii U.
2012 627,287
2013 371,382
2014 170,180
2015 358,969
2016 34,906
All 5 holiday seasons combined total 1,562,724, or a little less than half of the LTD.
If not supply constrained, the Switch can sell this amount during November and December this year no problem.
Skittzo0413
Member
Look at the Wii U's LTD in the OP, it's 3.3 million. One holiday season with 2-2.5m would mean it only sold ~1m the rest of its entire lifetime.
MCGAF PREDICTION LEAGUE YEAR 2017(Switch and Splatoon 2 Edition)
11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017
20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
11 predictions for Switch doing less than 2.1 million in 2017
5 predictions for Switch doing more than 3.5 million in 2017
20 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing less than 1.6 million in 2017
3 predictions for Splatoon 2 doing more than 2.4 million in 2017
Wow,so many people doubting Splatoon.
SinCityAssassin
Member
Should've taken part in that but I'm not much of a gambling man.