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kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

The Force remains with Lucasfilm and Disney, according to early tracking.

Stand-alone film Rogue One: A Star Wars Story one of the biggest box-office curiosities of the year is projected to open to $130-million-plus in North America over the Dec. 16-18 weekend, which would mark the second-biggest December opening of all time after last year's Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The movie came on tracking Tuesday morning, with one service suggesting it could even approach $150 million. (Conversely, another service has it opening in the high $120-million range, underscoring what a guessing game tracking can be.)

Click the link for the rest of the story.

The Force Awakens opened to a record $248M last year, on its way to a record $937M domestic total (and over $2B worldwide).

I think that Rogue One is widely expected to end up somewhere over $400M domestic. A $130M opening during the Holiday period would put it in a good position to do that.

The Number 1 film of the year so far at the US/Canada box office is Finding Dory with $486M.

BrokenFiction · Nov 22, 2016

I actually never knew this, because my family always spent a ton of time at the movies during the holidays:

The pre-Christmas corridor isn't known for huge openings, since consumers are distracted by holiday preparations. Prior to Force Awakens, no December film had ever launched north of $85 million, and that includes Avatar.

valkillmore · Nov 22, 2016

Honestly, sounds pretty solid for the fist stand-alone Star Wars spin-off film.

sphagnum · Nov 22, 2016

Should be a bit easier to get tickets then.

Randolph Freelander · Nov 22, 2016

I admit to being an outlier in terms of movie-going audience (I've seen only two movies in cinema since 2002, both actually being Star Wars films [episodes II and VII]), but there's no urgency for me to see this since it's not a numbered entry. I'll be fine waiting until this is available on disk.

BigDug13 · Nov 22, 2016

Member X-wings and AT-AT's? Member Mom Mothma and Vader? Member Grand Moff Tarkin?

(Hell yeah I member. Totally stoked)

FTF · Nov 22, 2016

Seems about right, I'll say $150m ow.

Ninja Scooter · Nov 22, 2016

If the feedback is good it's probably going to have the legs to dominate for weeks.

#sorrynotsorry · Nov 22, 2016

Randolph Freelander said:
I admit to being an outlier in terms of movie-going audience (I've seen only two movies in cinema since 2002, both actually being Star Wars films [episodes II and VII]), but there's no urgency for me to see this since it's not a numbered entry. I'll be fine waiting until this is available on disk.

Why? I mean, there's really nothing special about Star Wars that would demand seeing it in a theatre nowadays. Plenty of movies with far more spectacle.

(Not to imply Star Wars is bad)

Cheebo · Nov 22, 2016

Disney will have the top 3 grossing domestic movies this year. Either Star Wars or Finding Dory will be 1 (other being 2). 3 will be Cival War.

All 3 will be the only 3 movies to gross over 400 mil this year as well.

In fact only one movie of the top 5 the year won't be Disney after Rogue One (Secret Life of Pets).

kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

At this point last year, The Force Awakens was tracking for a $185-210M opening.

http://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/

We'll probably see the number in the OP adjusted up or down after presales open up this week.

Bruce Springsteen · Nov 22, 2016

Stars Wars alone would fund Disney at this point

Ridley327 · Nov 22, 2016

Ninja Scooter said:
If the feedback is good it's probably going to have the legs to dominate for weeks.

January is looking pretty dire this upcoming year. When new Underworld and Resident Evil films are the highlights for big studio stuff, you know no one is trying.

BumRush · Nov 22, 2016

Holiday is more about legs than opening, right?

Cheebo · Nov 22, 2016

Bruce Springsteen said:
Stars Wars alone would fund Disney at this point

ESPN is far more important to disneys bottom line. Dwarfs Star Wars and Marvel.

BronsonLee · Nov 22, 2016

Open On: Me Browsing OT

'Oh god, another Star Wars thre-wait, Kswiston made this?!'

B E T R A Y A L

SpaceWolf · Nov 22, 2016

Praying this does well so I can eventually get my Obi-Wan spin-off.

efyu_lemonardo · Nov 22, 2016

Cheebo said:
ESPN is far more important to disneys bottom line. Dwarfs Star Wars and Marvel.

Didn't know this. Any numbers to compare?

Cheebo · Nov 22, 2016

BronsonLee said:
Open On: Me Browsing OT

'Oh god, another Star Wars thre-wait, Kswiston made this?!'

B E T R A Y A L

Welcome to your new normal. President Trump and having Star Wars dominating all box office discussion for years to come. All your dreams are coming true.

PhoncipleBone · Nov 22, 2016

BumRush said:
Holiday is more about legs than opening, right?

Usually. Force Awakens was like a perfect storm though. Perfect weather, massive summer sized opening, then holiday style daily holds off of that massive opening.

BumRush · Nov 22, 2016

PhoncipleBone said:
Usually. Force Awakens was like a perfect storm though. Perfect weather, massive summer sized opening, then holiday style daily holds off of that massive opening.

And how is January looking?

BronsonLee · Nov 22, 2016

Cheebo said:
Welcome to your new normal. President Trump and having Star Wars dominating all box office discussion for years to come. All your dreams are coming true.

Sephzilla · Nov 22, 2016

The Force is strong with this one

ezekial45 · Nov 22, 2016

When do tickets go on sale again?

MMarston · Nov 22, 2016

ezekial45 said:
When do tickets go on sale again?

11/25 for NA

ryutaro's mama · Nov 22, 2016

Sephzilla said:
The Force is strong with this one

Not as strong as the last one.

People know the Episodes are the real deal.

Monocle · Nov 22, 2016

#sorrynotsorry said:
Why? I mean, there's really nothing special about Star Wars that would demand seeing it in a theatre nowadays. Plenty of movies with far more spectacle.

(Not to imply Star Wars is bad)

What? Every single Star Wars movie has been exceptionally cinematic, even the bad ones. It's always worth catching them in theaters.

Adnor · Nov 22, 2016

But can we even trust early trackings in this post-truth future?

kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

Cheebo said:
Disney will have the top 3 grossing domestic movies this year. Either Star Wars or Finding Dory will be 1 (other being 2). 3 will be Cival War.

All 3 will be the only 3 movies to gross over 400 mil this year as well.

In fact only one movie of the top 5 the year won't be Disney after Rogue One (Secret Life of Pets).

Disney will also take the top 5 this year worldwide unless Rogue One flops. Nothing else is likely to top The Jungle Book.

BronsonLee said:
Open On: Me Browsing OT

'Oh god, another Star Wars thre-wait, Kswiston made this?!'

B E T R A Y A L

I promise not to be the person who posts the Thursday previews, first day, first weekend, second weekend, or the "Rogue One dropped $500M from The Force Awakens in the US. Is Star Wars no longer relevant?" threads.

DBT85 · Nov 22, 2016

Ah, thanks for the reminder to book my UK tickets. 12:01 on the 15th. Booked!

Thebeardofknowledge · Nov 22, 2016

efyu_lemonardo said:
Didn't know this. Any numbers to compare?

ESPN makes about 4-6 billion a quarter

kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

BumRush said:
Holiday is more about legs than opening, right?

It's virtually impossible to miss a 3x opening weekend multiplier in late December.

Out of every film that has ever opened to at least $20M in December (over 50 titles), the only films that didn't hit 3x their opening weekends were The Golden Compass, Exodus, and The Day the Earth Stood Still (2008). The Day the Earth Stood Still was the most frontloaded of those three, and even it had a 2.6x OW multiplier (compare that to less than 2x for a particularly frontloaded film in other months). Furthermore, none of those films opened in the second half of December (where they would be hitting Holiday legs by their second weekend).

The Force Awakens is actually one of the more front-loaded "third weekend in December" films.

FTF · Nov 22, 2016

Thebeardofknowledge said:
ESPN makes about 4-6 billion a quarter

Receipts, show them you will.

Cheebo · Nov 22, 2016

People are surprised ESPN is far bigger than Star Wars/Marvel/etc?

Sports is far bigger a piece of the Disney empire than their film franchises.

kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

Cheebo said:
People are surprised ESPN is far bigger than Star Wars/Marvel/etc?

Sports is far bigger a piece of the Disney empire than their film franchises.

ESPN has also been dragging down their market value in recent months.

Cheebo · Nov 22, 2016

kswiston said:
ESPN has also been dragging down their market value in recent months.

That's the problem. ESPN dominates Disney's bottom line so when it suffers Disney takes a hit regardless of what else is going on. Dominating turn box office doesn't really make up for it if ESPN is hurting.

Sulik2 · Nov 22, 2016

If word of mouth is good I could see it ending up in the 180-200 range. The power of Star Wars and Darth Vader.

TheMan · Nov 22, 2016

Can't say I'm excited about this movie seeing as how Jedi won't be in it, but ill probably contribute to that opening total just cause it's Star Wars.

Grinchy · Nov 22, 2016

I hope it's good. I'll see it if competent people give positive impressions. It just looks so bad, though.

kswiston · Nov 22, 2016

Grinchy said:
I hope it's good. I'll see if it competent people give positive impressions. It just looks so bad, though.

It will be interesting to see where it falls on the review spectrum. Critics have historically been pretty easy going on Star Wars films post-OT, but this is a spin-off.

Skellig Gra · Nov 22, 2016

They'll have to hope the weather is perfect again like last year for TFA.

Jarmel · Nov 22, 2016

kswiston said:
It will be interesting to see where it falls on the review spectrum. Critics have historically been pretty easy going on Star Wars films post-OT, but this is a spin-off.

I imagine anything after TFA is going to be graded more harshly.

AnotherDayAnotherDollar · Nov 22, 2016

Cheebo said:
That's the problem. ESPN dominates Disney's bottom line so when it suffers Disney takes a hit regardless of what else is going on. Dominating turn box office doesn't really make up for it if ESPN is hurting.

Yep. That's why Iger is trying to diversify and that's the reason that despite sales record at the BO and a successful launch of a Theme park resort in Shanghai, DIS is down like ~20% for the year.

Metalmarc · Nov 22, 2016

First Spiderman Homecoming Trailer is meant to be attached to Rogue One, so i'm also looking forward to that.

Perfect Blue · Nov 22, 2016

TheMan said:
Can't say I'm excited about this movie seeing as how Jedi won't be in it, but ill probably contribute to that opening total just cause it's Star Wars.

That's exactly why I'm excited lol.

Corpsepyre · Nov 22, 2016

It's interesting how a film being a prequel, with a relatively unknown cast for blockbuster standards, and without 'episode' in the title, can end up being on the lower end of the box office spectrum, even though its part of the same cinematic universe.

opoth · Nov 22, 2016

Metalmarc said:
First Spiderrman Homecoming Trailer is meant to be attached to Rogue One, so i'm also looking forward to that.

I wish it was an Episode VIII teaser trailer instead.

BumRush · Nov 22, 2016

kswiston said:
It's virtually impossible to miss a 3x opening weekend multiplier in late December.

Out of every film that has ever opened to at least $20M in December (over 50 titles), the only films that didn't hit 3x their opening weekends were The Golden Compass, Exodus, and The Day the Earth Stood Still (2008). The Day the Earth Stood Still was the most frontloaded of those three, and even it had a 2.6x OW multiplier (compare that to less than 2x for a particularly frontloaded film in other months). Furthermore, none of those films opened in the second half of December (where they would be hitting Holiday legs by their second weekend).

The Force Awakens is actually one of the more front-loaded "third weekend in December" films.

Insightful...thanks. So if SWRO opens at $150M, it's a decent bet to take the Domestic crown for the year...

Metalmarc said:
First Spiderrman Homecoming Trailer is meant to be attached to Rogue One, so i'm also looking forward to that.

Awesome

a916 · Nov 22, 2016

These numbers will climb up as we get closer to release and Disney starts the full assualt via marketing.

Metalmarc · Nov 22, 2016

opoth said:
I wish it was an Episode VIII teaser trailer instead.

It wouldnt shock me if they did that too after xmas to boost new year numbers, i mean i hugely doubt it, but if it was me i would do it. Or even a featurette and
Not release it online leave it as a cinema only thing.

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Early tracking puts the domestic opening of Rogue One at $130M

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