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The Summer Box Office season is almost here. Predict the top 5 films.

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K

kswiston

Member
While this year has already seen some very large films, the traditional summer box office is set to start on the first weekend of May and will run until late-August when students start to return to the classrooms. Before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 kicks things off, I thought that it would be fun to get down some quick predictions of how the next 4 months will play out.

This thread will be a streamlined version of past summer prediction threads that we have run on GAF. I'm hoping that keeping things simple will foster more participation.

Instructions:

1) Predict the top 5 films this summer by total box office in order. As long as you list them in order, that's all you have to do.
Optional: List your predicted gross for each of your picks. This isn't required, but some of us in box office GAF like doing it.

2) Specify whether your list is the Top 5 domestic or Top 5 worldwide. While we often focus on the domestic box office, you can choose to take a worldwide approach. You can also choose to list both if you want.

Optional: List the big budget flop of the summer.


Sample Post

Domestic Top 5 films:
1) Diary of a Wimpy Kid 4
2) Tulip Fever
3) The Little Hours
4) The Book of Henry
5) Baby Driver

Big budget Flop: Despicable Me 3




Here's a list of the qualifying releases from major studios

May
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (BV) - 5/5
• King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (WB) - 5/12
• Snatched (Fox) - 5/12
• Alien: Covenant (Fox) - 5/19
• Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (Fox) - 5/19
• Everything, Everything (WB) - 5/19
• Baywatch (Par.) - 5/25
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (BV) - 5/26

June (Details)
• 3 Idiotas (LGF) - 6/2
• Captain Underpants (Fox) - 6/2
• Wonder Woman (WB) - 6/2
• The Mummy (2017) (Uni.) - 6/9
• All Eyez on Me (LG/S) - 6/16
• Cars 3 (BV) - 6/16
• Rough Night (Sony) - 6/16
• The Big Sick (LGF) - 6/23
• Transformers: The Last Knight (Par.) - 6/23
• Baby Driver (Sony) - 6/28
• Amityville: The Awakening (W/Dim.) - 6/30
• Despicable Me 3 (Uni.) - 6/30

July (Details)
• Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony) - 7/7
• War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox) - 7/14
• Dunkirk (WB) - 7/21
• Girls Trip (Uni.) - 7/21
• Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (STX) - 7/21
• Atomic Blonde (Focus) - 7/28
• The Emoji Movie (Col.) - 7/28
• An Inconvenient Sequel (ParV) - 7/28

August
• The Dark Tower (Sony) - 8/4
• Annabelle: Creation (WB (NL)) - 8/11
• The Hitman's Bodyguard (LG/S) - 8/18
• The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (ORF) - 8/18
• All Saints (Sony) - 8/25



Last Summer's Top 5

Domestic
1) Finding Dory - $486,295,5618
2) Captain America: Civil War - $408,084,349
3) The Secret Life of Pets - $368,384,330
4) Suicide Squad - $325,100,054
5) Jason Bourne - $162,434,410

Worldwide
1) Captain America: Civil War - $1,153,304,495
2) Finding Dory - $1,028,570,889
3) The Secret Life of Pets - $875,457,937
4) Suicide Squad - $745,600,054
5) X-Men Apocalypse - $543,934,787



At the end of summer, I'll go back through this thread and pass out the bragging rights and cones of shame. Ranking will be based on the number of top 5 films you accurately predicted, with correct order used for tie breakers. So will you be a movie Nostradamus or a Sony Exec? Find out!
 
N

Nepenthe

Member
I'll give it a shot. Note: This is the worldwide Top 5:

1. Transformers: The Last Knight- People still really like this dumb shit, especially in China. Whatever. Egh.

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2- Guardians have the pedigree now and Marvel seal of approval, but potential superhero ennui and the above dumb shit will probably make it lose out the top spot.

3. Spider-Man: Homecoming- People are excited for Spider-Man again but might still be soured on the Sony offerings. That and Guardians hype I feel is gonna bump it down.

4. War of the Planet of the Apes- Surprisingly solid franchise so far that almost doubled attendance with the sequel. With this being the purported final clash, I can see it being a real contender.

5. Wonder Woman- DC has failed to hit a billion with the two most iconic superheroes of all time. No way they pull off a billion dollar miracle with Wonder Woman, especially with the rumors going around.

I was thinking Pirates would be on the list, but I feel like it's been too long since the last entry and Johnny Depp isn't Hollywood's darling anymore, especially with the divorce. So nope!
 
A

AndyVirus

Member
Worldwide:
1. Despicable Me 3 - 1.05b
2. Transformers: The Last Knight - 970m
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 910m
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 850m
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: Subtitle Depends on Your Location - 800m

Flop wise..Is King Arthur big budget? I know it's the easy cop out answer.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
WW:

Despicable Me 3
GOTG Vol 2
Transformers: The Last Knight
POTC: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Spider-Man: Homecoming

I feel like picking Dark Tower for the flop is entirely too easy (we're this far along without even a teaser trailer yet? Sony, what are you doing?).
 
K

kurahador

Member
Domestic:
1. GOTG Vol. 2
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming
3. Wonder Woman
4. Dunkirk
5. Alien: Covenant

Wordwide:
1. GOTG Vol. 2
2. Despicable Me 3
3. Spiderman Homecoming
4. Transformers: The Last Knight
5. Cars 3

Flop: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
 
F

Freeza Under The Shower

Member
edit: worldwide:

1. Pirates 5
2. Guardians 2
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Transformers 4
5. Spider-Man v3.0

It's not going to be a surprise how this plays out. Sure, maybe Apes or Wonder Woman (pfff, no) is going to sneak in for number 5, or maybe that Emoji movie is an unexpected success (oh god please no), but other than that, it's between these five.

edit: Domestic:

1 Star Wars trailer
2 Star Wars trailer
3 Star Wars trailer
etc?
 
N

Nielm

Member
Worldwide:

1. Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2
2. Spider-Man: Homecoming
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
5. Dunkirk
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Okay, sure. I'll suck out loud in front of tens of people looking. I can do that. Shit, I do that every day. This ain't nothin.

Predictions are Domestic, because Domestic is what counts more.

1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
2) Spider-Man: Homecoming
3) Despicable Me 3
4) Cars 3
5) Wonder Woman

I almost had Transformers making that top 5 (probably shoulda put it at #4, but fuck it)

I also think that stupid goddamned Emoji Movie has a legit shot. As does Captain Underpants.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Freeza Under The Shower said:
1. Pirates 5
2. Guardians 2
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Transformers 4
5. Spider-Man v3.0

It's not going to be a surprise how this plays out. Sure, maybe Apes or Wonder Woman (pfff, no) is going to sneak in for number 5, or maybe that Emoji movie is an unexpected success (oh god please no), but other than that, it's between these five.
Click to expand...

I'm guessing that your list is worldwide based on the rankings, but you should specify!
 
N

Nemesis121

Member
1 Disney
2 Disney
3 Disney
4 Disney
5 Disney..

real list..

1..Spiderman
2..Guardians
3..Pirates
4..Cars 3
5..Wonder Woman..
 
kunonabi

kunonabi

Member
I'm not even going to try and figure out worldwide

Top 5:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Despicable Me 3
Cars 3
Transformers: The Last Knight
Wonder Woman

Flop:

Amityville: The Awakening

It's probably not smart to leave spider-man off but for some reason I just don't see the hype that I would have expected out of an MCU Spidey film. Has there been any tracking for Spider-man or is it still too early?
 
K

kswiston

Member
kunonabi said:
It's probably not smart to leave spider-man off but for some reason I just don't see the hype that I would have expected out of an MCU Spidey film. Has there been any tracking Spider-man or is it still too early?
Click to expand...

It's too early. I believe that official studio tracking typically starts 3-4 weeks before release (with some exceptions) and boxoffice.com puts up a long term forecast 2 months prior to release. I doubt you will find much for anything releasing after mid-June.
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
Domestic:

1. GOTG2
2. Despicable Me 3
3. Cars 3
4. Spider-Man
5. Transformers

Worldwide:

1. GOTG2
2. Transformers
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Spider-Man
5. Pirates 5

Flop city: Valerian
 
D

DizzyCaffeine

Member
Domestic Top 5 films:

1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2) Despicable Me 3
3) Spider-Man: Homecoming
4) War for the Planet of the Apes
5) Cars 3

Big Budget Flop: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
 
D

DizzyCaffeine

Member
So how do we determine the biggest flop at the end of the summer? Will WW grosses be factored in there? I can see a lot of movies on that list make up for their domestic shortcomings overseas.
 
P

Prompto

Banned
1. Baby Driver
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
2. Spider-Man Homecoming
3. Despicable Me 3
4. War of the Planet of the Apes
5. Wonder Woman

Domestic only

Random prediction: Cars 3, Transformers 5, and Pirates 5 will be the lowest grossing installment in each respective series domestically. Worldwide box office will make up for that loss though.
 
M

Mushroomer25

Member
1. Guardians of the Galaxy - Vol. 2
2. Spiderman: Homecoming
3. Cars 3
4. Despicable Me 3
5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Big Budget Flop: Valerian
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Dom

1. Guardians of the Galaxy V2
2. Spiderman Homecoming
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Pirates 5
5. Transformers 5

Transformers and Pirates will still have a healthy drop, but even a 20% drop will put them at 200mil and I can't see them doing much lower than 180mil. Which is where Cars 2 was at. Only real question is, will the gain from Spiderman and the drop from DM3 switch the two? Dark Horses are WW and War of the Apes, but WW just won't be that good and I do think the Apes series is a bit too good to take a crown.
 
P

pestul

Member
Domestic

1) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2
2) Spider-Man: Homecoming
3) Despicable Me 3
4) Transformers: The Last Knight
5) Pirates of the Caribbean 5

Worldwide

1) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2
2) Transformers: The Last Knight
3) Pirates of the Caribbean 5
4) Despicable Me 3
5) Spider-Man: Homecoming

Big Budget Flop: Valerian, King Arthur and The Dark Tower
 
M

MHWilliams

Member
Worldwide

1) Transformers: The Last Knight
2) Despicable Me 3
3) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
4) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
5) Spider-Man: Homecoming

3 and 4 can flip-flop.

Flop-Town, USA: Valerian. King Arthur will probably be up there, but Valerian's budget is up at a reported $220 million.
 
M

mreddie

Member
1. Despicable Me 3
2. Guardians 2
3. Spidey Homecoming
4. Cars 3
5. Transformers 5

Bombs: Valerian, Arthur. Everything else will make its budgets.
 
S

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Bobby Roberts said:
Apes movies make bank, and are very well liked, but they never break out, either.

Did either of the prior films crack their summer's top 5?
Click to expand...

Last Apes film made 208mil. Last Cars made 190mil.

It's going to be a bit of a mess on the lower end

Since both Transformers and Pirates are coming in with less hyped sequels, but around 250mil from the previous. Apes has been rising, but will it do as well as Dawn since the franchise does seem to be a step above the average blockbuster. What will help Apes is the same as the previous, not much else is releasing after it. I was wondering if I wanted to make it my 5th.
 
D

DizzyCaffeine

Member
What the hell is The Mummy gonna gross? $100 million? Less? I'm getting Van Helsing vibes off it, so I doubt it will bomb, but I can't see it being a hit either.
 
B

bearythebear

Member
Domestic:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2. The Emoji Movie
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Cars 3
5. Transformers: The Last Knight.
 
B

blakep267

Member
WW
1. Pirates
2. Transformers
3. Cars 3
4. GOTG
5.Despicable me

Domestic
1. GOTG
2. Cars 3
3. Spider-Man
4.Wonder-Woman
5.The Mummy


I think China pushes Pirates and Transformers over the comic book movies

And the mummy could be a wild card overseas

I also think Baywatch is gonna do well. Like 100+ million domestic well
 
H

hobozero

Member
1. Thor: Ragnarok
2. Thor: Ragnarok
3. Thor: Ragnarok
4. Thor: Ragnarok
5. Thor: Ragnarok

Because Taika Waititi SPITS HOT FIRE

CiFBRr.gif


(don't care that it's a November release neither. retroactively beatin' all y'all BO)
 
I

Inceptional

Member
Sorry but I play by my own rules:

Top 10 Domestic Grosses:

1. Guardians 2- $510- It's gonna be HUGE!!!
2. Dispicable Me 3- $380
3. Transformers 27- $340
4. Spider-man- $330
5. Cars 3- $280
6. Wonder Woman- $240
7. WftPotA- $220
8. Dunkirk- $210
9. Pirates 27- $190
10.Alien Covenant- $170

Biggest Bombs of the Summer:

1. King Aurther
2. Baywatch
3. The Mummy
4. Baby Driver- Unfortunately
5. Valerian- Again "
 
F

Fancyarcher

Member
Domestic:

Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 2
Despicable Me 3
Spider-Man: Homecoming
War For The Planet of The Apes
Wonder Woman

Biggest flop will be Valeria. Though it looks more interesting then most films coming out this summer.
 
J

jett

D-Member
Worldwide:

1.- Minions 4
2.- Transmorphers 5
3.- Johnny Depp of the Caribbean 5
4.- Mahvel 45
5.- Spider-Man 6

I think King Arthur could be the big ol' bomb of the season, I think it will have to rely on Mad Max-tier universal acclaim to carry it to non-disaster status. The Dark Tower will also bomb probably.

edit: forgot about Valerian. That shit is going to tank harder than a Dane Cook comedy special.
 
shira

shira

Member
Bobby Roberts said:
Okay, sure. I'll suck out loud in front of tens of people looking. I can do that. Shit, I do that every day. This ain't nothin.

Predictions are Domestic, because Domestic is what counts more.

1) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.
2) Spider-Man: Homecoming
3) Despicable Me 3
4) Cars 3
5) Wonder Woman

I almost had Transformers making that top 5 (probably shoulda put it at #4, but fuck it)

I also think that stupid goddamned Emoji Movie has a legit shot. As does Captain Underpants.
Click to expand...

There is no fucking way WW beats Transformers.
It's being sent to die between Depp's PotC and Cruise's Mummy.

Inceptional said:
DM2 made $368 Domestic and Minions was HUGE!
Click to expand...

Yeah I know, it's more like wtf people.
 
TDLink

TDLink

Member
Worldwide:

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  2. Despicable Me 3
  3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
  4. Wonder Woman
  5. Spider-Man Homecoming

I feel like Domestic will be close to the same with some possible variation in the order.

Almost put Cars 3 but I really don't think it will beat those 5. Transformers I also feel will underperform a bit comparatively.

Biggest Flop: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Also feel like Dunkirk is going to underperform, but maybe not flop.
 
R

Rastafarian42

Member
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
Despicable Me 3
Spider-man Homecoming
Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Man Tell no Tales
Transformers The Last Knight

Safest bets for the Summer Cars 3 worldwide I think will be huge domestic I'm not to sure, Wonder Woman depends on the critic and audience response, War for the Planet of the Apes could make bank if it's great but I don't any wear near the five I've said.
 
H

hodayathink

Member
I feel like some people are underestimating Despicable Me 3. If it's good, it has no competition in terms of animated/kids movies until The Emoji Movie nearly a month later, and Homecoming is the only 4 quadrant film it's competing within that time period. It's going to have legs for days.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
shira said:
There is no fucking way WW beats Transformers.
Click to expand...

I'm being optimistic on purpose! Naively hopefully optimistic

(plus if I actually land this shot I'll be a crow dispensary)

I had Transformers at #4 originally and then said "fuck it."

3N16MA said:
The previous Apes film outgrossed Cars 2 DOM and WW. The previous film was #5 in 2014.
Click to expand...

That's interesting! Shit. Ah well, the guess is locked in. Riding it out.

I do wonder if Cars 3 will enjoy a bump based on the fact all the little boys who grew up with it are now of the age where they're about to indulge their first tastes of "lets take this childhood thing and blow it up and murder it that's cool, right?"

Like, basically, baby's first "grimdark" excursion or whatever. Kinda like how grown men of a certain age are still somehow convinced Transformers: The Movie isnt' a massive, ugly, poorly made piece of shit because their toybox shot itself in the head for 20 straight minutes at the beginning.
 
M

Magwik

Banned
1. Disney Film
2. Disney Film
3. Transformers
4. Despicable Me
5. Disney Film

Wildcards: War for the Planet of the Apes + Alien: Covenant
 
K

kswiston

Member
Those of you not specifying domestic vs worldwide in their posts will be assumed to be talking about the domestic gross.

Biggest flop will be worldwide though.

I will wait until tomorrow to post my own thoughts.
 
K

kswiston

Member
My Guesses


Domestic
1) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2
2) Spider-Man: Homecoming
3) Despicable Me 3
4) Wonder Woman
5) War for the Planet of the Apes


Worldwide
1) Despicable Me 3
2) Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2
3) Transformers: The Last Knight
4) Spider-Man: Homecoming
5) Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales


I am happy with my #1 picks in both. I could flip #2 and #3 on the domestic list. The bottom of that list is also sort of guesswork. I might be underestimating Pirates and Transformers, and overestimating Apes for instance.

The worldwide list is so China dependent that I could be completely wrong. I do think that DM3 will come out ahead. Transformers could be #2 or #4. Ditto for Spider-man. I think that #2-4 will be close. #5 was between a handful of films, but I went with Pirates, since I think that one has the best shot at $700M+


I am going to have to go with Valerian as the summer flop, but I wouldn't mind being wrong.
 
T

Toothless

Member
Late on this, but since I love box office, I have two lists for y'all:

DOM:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
2. Wonder Woman
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Despicable Me 3
5. War for the Planet of the Apes

WW:
1. Transformers: The Last Knight
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
3. Despicable Me 3
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
 
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