Gamasutra asked some industry analysts about the PSP. The following questions were asked:
*What are your general thoughts about the Sony PSP? Do you rate it as a failure or success? Or do you have mixed or neutral feelings about it?
*What do you think Sony and developers could do to improve the PSP platform, to generate more excitement for it among developers, gamers and the industry overall? Or do they need to?
*What do you forecast will happen with the PSP platform throughout this year, especially in relation to the PS3 (the fact that Sony plans to interface the device more with the console), with its recently announced price cut and rumors of a second generation model?
The answers were pretty similar, but there is some good insight. I'll highlight some of the tastier quotes below:
We forecast that the global installed base of PSP users will be around 29 million at the end of 2007, generating $1.9 billion in software sales. Lifetime software sales at the end of 2007 will be around $4.5 billion. If this is "failing," then failure just got a huge brand makeover.
publishers are already enjoying some greater success on the PSP than they ever did on Nintendo portable platforms.
the market is showing that you must develop a game specifically for the portable platform and not just repurpose console [i.e. PS1] games. The challenge is this is likely to take a high-end budget, probably around $5 million.
Exclusive titles define a platform, and there is less impetus for PSP owners to purchase such titles at full price if they see a PS2 release a few months down the line.
UMD works fine for games, but the company put so much emphasis on the format for movies and that has proven to be a disaster.
with retailers beginning to lose faith in the device, and we may see some new version of the hardware, possibly a smaller version that features better battery life.
I think you will likely see [next-gen PSP] introduced in 2008 with the product shipping in 2009. Sony's too focused on the PS3 right now to deliver a new handheld in the next 18 months.
http://gamasutra.com/features/20070406/wen_01.shtml